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Subsurface sandstone reservoirs sealed by overlying, low-permeability layers provide capacity for long-term sequestration of anthropogenic waste. Leakage can occur if reservoir pressures rise sufficiently to fracture the seal. Such pressures can be generated within the reservoir by vigorous injection of waste or, over thousands of years, by natural processes. In either case, the precise role of intercalated mudstones in the long-term evolution of reservoir pressure remains unclear; these layers have variously been viewed as seals, as pressure sinks or as pressure sources. Here, we use the geological record of episodic fluid venting in the Levant Basin to provide striking evidence for the pressure-source hypothesis. We use a Bayesian framework to combine recently published venting data, which record critical subsurface pressures since $\sim$2~Ma, with a stochastic model of pressure evolution to infer a pressure-recharge rate of $\sim$30~MPa/Myr. To explain this large rate, we quantify and compare a range of candidate mechanisms. We find that poroelastic pressure diffusion from mudstones provides the most plausible explanation for these observations, amplifying the $\sim$3~MPa/Myr recharge caused primarily by tectonic compression. Since pressurised mudstones are ubiquitous in sedimentary basins, pressure diffusion from mudstones is likely to promote seal failure globally.

Fluid venting phenomena are prevalent in sedimentary basins globally. Offshore, these localised fluid-expulsion events are archived in the geologic record by the resulting pockmarks at the sea-floor. Venting is widely interpreted to occur via hydraulic fracturing, which requires near-lithostatic pore pressures for initiation. One common driver for these extreme pressures is horizontal tectonic compression, which pressurises the entire sedimentary column over a wide region. Fluid expulsion leads to a sudden, local relief of this pressure, which then gradually recharges through continued compression, leading to episodic venting. Pressure recharge will also occur through pressure diffusion from neighbouring regions that remain pressurised, but the combined role of compression and pressure diffusion in episodic venting has not previously been considered. Here, we develop a novel poroelastic model for episodic, compression-driven venting. We show that compression and pressure diffusion together set the resulting venting period. We derive a simple analytical expression for this venting period, demonstrating that pressure diffusion can significantly reduce the venting period associated with a given rate of compression. Our expression allows this rate of compression to be inferred from observations of episodic venting. We conclude that pressure diffusion is a major contributor to episodic fluid venting in mudstone-dominated basins.