1. Bayesian regularization to predict neuropsychiatric adverse events in smoking cessation with pharmacotherapy
- Author
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Van Thi Thanh Truong, Charles Green, Claudia Pedroza, Lu-Yu Hwang, Suja S. Rajan, Robert Suchting, Paul Cinciripini, Rachel F. Tyndale, and Caryn Lerman
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Bayesian regularization ,Prediction model ,Model selection ,Neuropsychiatric adverse events ,Smoking cessation pharmacotherapy ,Sleep disturbance ,Medicine (General) ,R5-920 - Abstract
Abstract Background Research on risk factors for neuropsychiatric adverse events (NAEs) in smoking cessation with pharmacotherapy is scarce. We aimed to identify predictors and develop a prediction model for risk of NAEs in smoking cessation with medications using Bayesian regularization. Methods Bayesian regularization was implemented by applying two shrinkage priors, Horseshoe and Laplace, to generalized linear mixed models on data from 1203 patients treated with nicotine patch, varenicline or placebo. Two predictor models were considered to separate summary scores and item scores in the psychosocial instruments. The summary score model had 19 predictors or 26 dummy variables and the item score model 51 predictors or 58 dummy variables. A total of 18 models were investigated. Results An item score model with Horseshoe prior and 7 degrees of freedom was selected as the final model upon model comparison and assessment. At baseline, smokers reporting more abnormal dreams or nightmares had 16% greater odds of experiencing NAEs during treatment (regularized odds ratio (rOR) = 1.16, 95% credible interval (CrI) = 0.95 – 1.56, posterior probability P(rOR > 1) = 0.90) while those with more severe sleep problems had 9% greater odds (rOR = 1.09, 95% CrI = 0.95 – 1.37, P(rOR > 1) = 0.85). The prouder a person felt one week before baseline resulted in 13% smaller odds of having NAEs (rOR = 0.87, 95% CrI = 0.71 – 1.02, P(rOR
- Published
- 2023
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