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BACKGROUND: Tubal ectopic pregnancies can cause substantial morbidity or even death. Current treatment is with methotrexate or surgery. Methotrexate treatment fails in approximately 30% of women who subsequently require rescue surgery. Gefitinib, an epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitor, might improve the effects of methotrexate. We assessed the efficacy of oral gefitinib with methotrexate, versus methotrexate alone, to treat tubal ectopic pregnancy. METHODS: We performed a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial across 50 UK hospitals. Participants diagnosed with tubal ectopic pregnancy were administered a single dose of intramuscular methotrexate (50 mg/m2) and randomised (1:1 ratio) to 7 days of additional oral gefitinib (250 mg daily) or placebo. The primary outcome, analysed by intention to treat, was surgical intervention to resolve the ectopic pregnancy. Secondary outcomes included time to resolution of ectopic pregnancy and serious adverse events. This trial is registered at the ISRCTN registry, ISCRTN 67795930. FINDINGS: Between Nov 2, 2016, and Oct 6, 2021, 328 participants were allocated to methotrexate and gefitinib (n=165) or methotrexate and placebo (n=163). Three participants in the placebo group withdrew. Surgical intervention occurred in 50 (30%) of 165 participants in the gefitinib group and in 47 (29%) of 160 participants in the placebo group (adjusted risk ratio 1·15, 95% CI 0·85 to 1·58; adjusted risk difference -0·01, 95% CI -0·10 to 0·09; p=0·37). Without surgical intervention, median time to resolution was 28·0 days in the gefitinib group and 28·0 days in the placebo group (subdistribution hazard ratio 1·03, 95% CI 0·75 to 1·40). Serious adverse events occurred in five (3%) of 165 participants in the gefitinib group and in six (4%) of 162 participants in the placebo group. Diarrhoea and rash were more common in the gefitinib group. INTERPRETATION: In women with a tubal ectopic pregnancy, adding oral gefitinib to parenteral methotrexate does not offer clinical benefit over methotrexate and increases minor adverse reactions. FUNDING: National Institute of Health Research.

Background Progesterone is essential for a healthy pregnancy. Several small trials have suggested that progesterone therapy may rescue a pregnancy in women with early pregnancy bleeding, which is a symptom that is strongly associated with miscarriage. Objectives (1) To assess the effects of vaginal micronised progesterone in women with vaginal bleeding in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy. (2) To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of progesterone in women with early pregnancy bleeding. Design A multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised trial of progesterone in women with early pregnancy vaginal bleeding. Setting A total of 48 hospitals in the UK. Participants Women aged 16–39 years with early pregnancy bleeding. Interventions Women aged 16–39 years were randomly assigned to receive twice-daily vaginal suppositories containing either 400 mg of progesterone or a matched placebo from presentation to 16 weeks of gestation. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was live birth at ≥ 34 weeks. In addition, a within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted from an NHS and NHS/Personal Social Services perspective. Results A total of 4153 women from 48 hospitals in the UK received either progesterone (n = 2079) or placebo (n = 2074). The follow-up rate for the primary outcome was 97.2% (4038 out of 4153 participants). The live birth rate was 75% (1513 out of 2025 participants) in the progesterone group and 72% (1459 out of 2013 participants) in the placebo group (relative rate 1.03, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.07; p = 0.08). A significant subgroup effect (interaction test p = 0.007) was identified for prespecified subgroups by the number of previous miscarriages: none (74% in the progesterone group vs. 75% in the placebo group; relative rate 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.95 to 1.04; p = 0.72); one or two (76% in the progesterone group vs. 72% in the placebo group; relative rate 1.05, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.12; p = 0.07); and three or more (72% in the progesterone group vs. 57% in the placebo group; relative rate 1.28, 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.51; p = 0.004). A significant post hoc subgroup effect (interaction test p = 0.01) was identified in the subgroup of participants with early pregnancy bleeding and any number of previous miscarriage(s) (75% in the progesterone group vs. 70% in the placebo group; relative rate 1.09, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.15; p = 0.003). There were no significant differences in the rate of adverse events between the groups. The results of the health economics analysis show that progesterone was more costly than placebo (£7655 vs. £7572), with a mean cost difference of £83 (adjusted mean difference £76, 95% confidence interval –£559 to £711) between the two arms. Thus, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of progesterone compared with placebo was estimated as £3305 per additional live birth at ≥ 34 weeks of gestation. Conclusions Progesterone therapy in the first trimester of pregnancy did not result in a significantly higher rate of live births among women with threatened miscarriage overall, but an important subgroup effect was identified. A conclusion on the cost-effectiveness of the PRISM trial would depend on the amount that society is willing to pay to increase the chances of an additional live birth at ≥ 34 weeks. For future work, we plan to conduct an individual participant data meta-analysis using all existing data sets. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN14163439, EudraCT 2014-002348-42 and Integrated Research Application System (IRAS) 158326. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 33. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Trial design A randomised, parallel-group, double-blind, placebo-controlled multicentre study with health economic and nested qualitative studies to determine if mifepristone (Mifegyne®, Exelgyn, Paris, France) plus misoprostol is superior to misoprostol alone for the resolution of missed miscarriage. Methods Women diagnosed with missed miscarriage in the first 14 weeks of pregnancy were randomly assigned (1 : 1 ratio) to receive 200 mg of oral mifepristone or matched placebo, followed by 800 μg of misoprostol 2 days later. A web-based randomisation system allocated the women to the two groups, with minimisation for age, body mass index, parity, gestational age, amount of bleeding and randomising centre. The primary outcome was failure to pass the gestational sac within 7 days after randomisation. The prespecified key secondary outcome was requirement for surgery to resolve the miscarriage. A within-trial cost-effectiveness study and a nested qualitative study were also conducted. Women who completed the trial protocol were purposively approached to take part in an interview to explore their satisfaction with and the acceptability of medical management of missed miscarriage. Results A total of 711 women, from 28 hospitals in the UK, were randomised to receive either mifepristone plus misoprostol (357 women) or placebo plus misoprostol (354 women). The follow-up rate for the primary outcome was 98% (696 out of 711 women). The risk of failure to pass the gestational sac within 7 days was 17% (59 out of 348 women) in the mifepristone plus misoprostol group, compared with 24% (82 out of 348 women) in the placebo plus misoprostol group (risk ratio 0.73, 95% confidence interval 0.54 to 0.98; p = 0.04). Surgical intervention to resolve the miscarriage was needed in 17% (62 out of 355 women) in the mifepristone plus misoprostol group, compared with 25% (87 out of 353 women) in the placebo plus misoprostol group (risk ratio 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.52 to 0.94; p = 0.02). There was no evidence of a difference in the incidence of adverse events between the two groups. A total of 42 women, 19 in the mifepristone plus misoprostol group and 23 in the placebo plus misoprostol group, took part in an interview. Women appeared to have a preference for active management of their miscarriage. Overall, when women experienced care that supported their psychological well-being throughout the care pathway, and information was delivered in a skilled and sensitive manner such that women felt informed and in control, they were more likely to express satisfaction with medical management. The use of mifepristone and misoprostol showed an absolute effect difference of 6.6% (95% confidence interval 0.7% to 12.5%). The average cost per woman was lower in the mifepristone plus misoprostol group, with a cost saving of £182 (95% confidence interval £26 to £338). Therefore, the use of mifepristone and misoprostol for the medical management of a missed miscarriage dominated the use of misoprostol alone. Limitations The results from this trial are not generalisable to women diagnosed with incomplete miscarriage and the study does not allow for a comparison with expectant or surgical management of miscarriage. Future work Future work should use existing data to assess and rank the relative clinical effectiveness and safety profiles for all methods of management of miscarriage. Conclusions Our trial showed that pre-treatment with mifepristone followed by misoprostol resulted in a higher rate of resolution of missed miscarriage than misoprostol treatment alone. Women were largely satisfied with medical management of missed miscarriage and would choose it again. The mifepristone and misoprostol intervention was shown to be cost-effective in comparison to misoprostol alone. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN17405024. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 68. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

ObjectivesTo assess if there is any association between hyperemesis gravidarum (HG), psychological morbidity and infant bonding and to quantify any psychosocial consequences of HG.DesignTwo-point prospective case–control, multicentre survey study with antenatal and postnatal data collection.SettingThree London hospitals.ParticipantsPregnant women at ≤12 completed weeks gestation recruited consecutively over 2 years. Women with HG were recruited at the time of admission; controls recruited from a low risk antenatal clinic. 106 women were recruited to the case group and 108 to the control. Response rates at antenatal data collection were 87% and 85% in the case and control groups, respectively. Postnatally, the response rate was 90% in both groups.Primary and secondary outcome measuresPrimary outcomes were psychological morbidity in the antenatal and postnatal periods, infant bonding in the postnatal period and psychosocial implications of HG. Secondary outcomes were the effects of severity and longevity of HG and assessment of correlation between Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale scores and maternal-to-infant bonding scores.ResultsAntenatally, 49% of cases had probable depression compared with 6% of controls (OR 14.4 (5.29 to 39.44)). Postnatally, 29% of cases had probable depression versus 7% of controls (OR 5.2 (1.65 to 17.21)). There was no direct association between HG and infant bonding. 53% of women in the HG group reported needing four or more weeks of sick leave compared with 2% in the control group (OR 60.5 (95% CI 8.4 to 2535.6)).ConclusionsLong-lasting psychological morbidity associated with HG was evident. Significantly more women in the case group sought help for mental health symptoms in the antenatal period, however very few were diagnosed with or treated for depression in pregnancy or referred to specialist perinatal mental health services. HG did not directly affect infant bonding. Women in the case group required long periods off work, highlighting the socioeconomic impact of HG.

Background\ud The anti-progesterone drug mifepristone and the prostaglandin misoprostol can be used to treat missed miscarriage. However, it is unclear whether a combination of mifepristone and misoprostol is more effective than administering misoprostol alone. We investigated whether treatment with mifepristone plus misoprostol would result in a higher rate of completion of missed miscarriage compared with misoprostol alone. \ud \ud Methods\ud MifeMiso was a multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised trial in 28 UK hospitals. Women were eligible for enrolment if they were aged 16 years and older, diagnosed with a missed miscarriage by pelvic ultrasound scan in the first 14 weeks of pregnancy, chose to have medical management of miscarriage, and were willing and able to give informed consent. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to a single dose of oral mifepristone 200 mg or an oral placebo tablet, both followed by a single dose of vaginal, oral, or sublingual misoprostol 800 μg 2 days later. Randomisation was managed via a secure web-based randomisation program, with minimisation to balance study group assignments according to maternal age (

Objectives To assess the cost‐effectiveness of progesterone compared with placebo in preventing pregnancy loss in women with early pregnancy vaginal bleeding. Design Economic evaluation alongside a large multi‐centre randomised placebo‐controlled trial. Setting Forty‐eight UK NHS early pregnancy units. Population Four thousand one hundred and fifty‐three women aged 16–39 years with bleeding in early pregnancy and ultrasound evidence of an intrauterine sac. Methods An incremental cost‐effectiveness analysis was performed from National Health Service (NHS) and NHS and Personal Social Services perspectives. Subgroup analyses were carried out on women with one or more and three or more previous miscarriages. Main outcome measures Cost per additional live birth at ≥34 weeks of gestation. Results Progesterone intervention led to an effect difference of 0.022 (95% CI −0.004 to 0.050) in the trial. The mean cost per woman in the progesterone group was £76 (95% CI −£559 to £711) more than the mean cost in the placebo group. The incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio for progesterone compared with placebo was £3305 per additional live birth. For women with at least one previous miscarriage, progesterone was more effective than placebo with an effect difference of 0.055 (95% CI 0.014–0.096) and this was associated with a cost saving of £322 (95% CI −£1318 to £673). Conclusions The results suggest that progesterone is associated with a small positive impact and a small additional cost. Both subgroup analyses were more favourable, especially for women who had one or more previous miscarriages. Given available evidence, progesterone is likely to be a cost‐effective intervention, particularly for women with previous miscarriage(s). Tweetable abstract Progesterone treatment is likely to be cost‐effective in women with early pregnancy bleeding and a history of miscarriage., Tweetable abstract Progesterone treatment is likely to be cost‐effective in women with early pregnancy bleeding and a history of miscarriage.

STUDY QUESTION What is the interobserver and intraobserver reproducibility of pelvic ultrasound for the detection of endometriotic lesions? SUMMARY ANSWER Pelvic ultrasound is highly reproducible for the detection of pelvic endometriotic lesions. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Transvaginal ultrasound (TVS) has been widely adopted as the first-line assessment for the diagnosis and assessment of pelvic endometriosis. Severity of endometriosis as assessed by ultrasound has been shown to have good concordance with laparoscopy (kappa 0.79). The reproducibility of TVS for assessment of ovarian mobility and pouch of Douglas obliteration using the ‘sliding sign’ has already been described in the literature. However, there is no available data in the literature to demonstrate the intraobserver repeatability of measurements for endometriotic cysts and nodules. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION This was a prospective observational cross-sectional study conducted over a period of 12 months. We included 50 consecutive women who were all examined by two operators (A and B) during their clinic attendance. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS The study was carried out in a specialist endometriosis centre. We included all consecutive women who had ultrasound scans performed independently by two experienced operators during the same visit to the clinic. The outcomes of interest were the inter- and intraobserver reproducibility for the detection of endometriotic lesions. We also assessed repeatability of the measurements of lesion size. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE There was a good level of agreement between operator A and operator B in detecting the presence of pelvic endometriotic lesions (k = 0.72). There was a very good level of agreement between operators in identifying endometriotic cysts (k = 0.88) and a good level of agreement in identifying endometriotic nodules (k = 0.61). The inter- and intraobserver repeatability of measuring endometriotic cysts was excellent (intra-class correlation (ICC) ≥ 0.98). There was good interobserver measurement repeatability for bowel nodules (ICC 0.88), but the results for nodules in the posterior compartment were poor (ICC 0.41). The intraobserver repeatability for nodule size measurements was good for both operators (ICC ≥0.86). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Within this cohort, there was insufficient data to perform a separate analysis for nodule size in the anterior compartment. All examinations were performed within a specialised unit with a high prevalence of deep endometriosis. Our findings may not apply to operators without intensive ultrasound training in the diagnosis of pelvic endometriosis. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS These findings are important because ultrasound has been widely accepted as the first-line investigation for the diagnosis of pelvic endometriosis, which often determines the need for future investigations and treatment. The detection and measurement of bowel nodules is essential for anticipation of surgical risk and planning surgical excision. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) The authors have no conflict of interest. No funding was obtained for this work.

AIM: We have assessed the potential predictive ability of the biomarkers activin B and fibronectin (FN1) alone and when added to established markers for triaging patients as being at low or high risk of ectopic pregnancy (EP). We also assessed their use as predictors of viability at 12 weeks gestation. METHODS: Exploratory secondary analysis of a prospective study including all women classified as a pregnancy of known location (PUL) based on transvaginal ultrasonography between January and December 2007 at the early pregnancy unit of St Georges’ Hospital (London). We used multinomial logistic regression to assess the diagnostic potential of the biomarkers to triage PUL at high risk of complications (EP or persistent PUL), and standard binary logistic regression to predict first trimester viability at 12 weeks. RESULTS: For discriminating high‐risk (n = 16) from low‐risk PUL (n = 93), the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.75 (95% confidence interval 0.60–0.85) for activin B and 0.55 (0.41–0.68) for FN1. Adding activin B to a multinomial logistic regression model incorporating β‐hCG ratio and initial progesterone yielded odds ratios of 0.16 (0.05–0.55) for failing vs high‐risk PUL and 0.29 (0.07–1.19) for intrauterine vs high‐risk PUL and increased the model's AUC from 0.84 to 0.89. At a risk threshold of 5% for high‐risk PUL, sensitivity increased from 84% to 87% and specificity from 48% to 64%. For discriminating viable (n = 28) from non‐viable (n = 81) pregnancies at 12 weeks, both markers had an AUC of 0.54. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggested that activin B may be a promising marker to improve PUL triage in addition to established markers.

In 2011, the first systematic review of the evidence behind the diagnostic criteria for miscarriage was published. It states, "findings were limited by the small number and poor quality of the studies," and concluded that further studies were, "urgently required before setting future standards for the accurate diagnosis of early embryonic demise." This implies that data used to define criteria to diagnose miscarriage are unreliable. The 2011 Irish Health Service executive review into miscarriage misdiagnosis highlighted this issue. In parallel to these publications a multicenter prospective study was published examining cut-off values for mean sac diameter (MSD) and embryo size to define miscarriage. The authors also published evidence on expected findings when ultrasonography is repeated at an interval. This led to guidance on diagnostic criteria for miscarriage in the UK changing. These new criteria state miscarriage be considered only when: an empty gestation sac has an MSD of ≥ 25 mm (with no obvious yolk sac), or embryonic crown rump length ≥ 7 mm (the latter without evidence of fetal heart activity). If in doubt, repeating scans at an interval is emphasized. It is axiomatic that decisions about embryonic viability must not be open to doubt. So it is surprising how little evidence exists to support previous guidance. Any clinician working in this area knows of women being wrongly informed that their pregnancy has failed. This cannot be acceptable and guidance in this area must be "failsafe."

Miscarriage is the most common serious pregnancy complication affecting approximately 30% of biochemical pregnancies and 11-20% of clinically recognised pregnancies. The diagnosis of miscarriage is made most commonly by trans-vaginal ultrasound (TVS) assessment. Evidence-based criteria should be employed for the diagnosis of delayed and incomplete miscarriage. Complete miscarriage should not be diagnosed with TVS alone without serial biochemical confirmation (unless an intrauterine gestation sac has previously been visualised). After a clinical assessment suggesting complete miscarriage, 45% of women will have retained tissue on ultrasound, whilst women with an ultrasound scan showing an empty uterus with a history suggestive of miscarriage will be found to have an ectopic pregnancy in 6% of cases. Prediction of the diagnosis of miscarriage using maternal history and ultrasound features may be helpful in counselling women towards likely pregnancy outcome and planning appropriate further assessment. Use of three-dimensional ultrasound has not improved diagnosis of miscarriage. After a diagnosis of miscarriage, half the women undergo significant psychological effects, which may last for up to 12 months.

Background: Over time, methods for the development of clinical decision support (CDS) systems have evolved from interpretable and easy-to-use scoring systems to very complex and non-interpretable mathematical models. In order to accomplish effective decision support, CDS systems should provide information on how the model arrives at a certain decision. To address the issue of incompatibility between performance, interpretability and applicability of CDS systems, this paper proposes an innovative model structure, automatically leading to interpretable and easily applicable models. The resulting models can be used to guide clinicians when deciding upon the appropriate treatment, estimating patient-specific risks and to improve communication with patients. Methods and Findings: We propose the interval coded scoring (ICS) system, which imposes that the effect of each variable on the estimated risk is constant within consecutive intervals. The number and position of the intervals are automatically obtained by solving an optimization problem, which additionally performs variable selection. The resulting model can be visualised by means of appealing scoring tables and color bars. ICS models can be used within software packages, in smartphone applications, or on paper, which is particularly useful for bedside medicine and home-monitoring. The ICS approach is illustrated on two gynecological problems: diagnosis of malignancy of ovarian tumors using a dataset containing 3,511 patients, and prediction of first trimester viability of pregnancies using a dataset of 1,435 women. Comparison of the performance of the ICS approach with a range of prediction models proposed in the literature illustrates the ability of ICS to combine optimal performance with the interpretability of simple scoring systems. Conclusions: The ICS approach can improve patient-clinician communication and will provide additional insights in the importance and influence of available variables. Future challenges include extensions of the proposed methodology towards automated detection of interaction effects, multi-class decision support systems, prognosis and high-dimensional data.

BACKGROUND: Traditionally, in cases of hyperemesis gravidarum (HG), an ultrasound evaluation is recommended to confirm viability and to exclude multiple pregnancies and gestational trophoblastic disease (GTD). Our aim was to perform a case-control study to evaluate the incidence of these findings. METHODS: Each case of HG was matched for gestational age with the next ultrasound examination performed in an asymptomatic pregnancy. The findings were compared between the two groups. RESULTS: Two hundred and eighty-six cases of HG were matched with 286 asymptomatic women. The total number of viable pregnancies was higher in the HG group (280/286, 97.9%) than that in the control group (265/286, 92.6%; P = 0.006). The incidence of twins was 3.1% in each group (P > 0.999). The incidence of early pregnancy failure was 0.7% in women with HG compared to 7.0% in asymptomatic women (odds ratio 0.09, 95% CI 0.01-0.04, P < 0.0001). The one case of GTD was in the HG group; however, this case also presented with vaginal bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: Pregnancies complicated by HG had a similar risk of twin pregnancy, and a lower risk of early pregnancy failure compared to controls. In the absence of vaginal bleeding, there was no increase in GTD in women with HG. We conclude that an ultrasound scan is not clinically necessary in women presenting with HG, other than for maternal reassurance.