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Byline: chantellepartridge Based on recent information, the ASEAN Light Vehicle (LV) market is estimated to drop by 6% year-on-year (YoY) to 3.11 million units for full-year 2024, due to double-digit [...]

TLDR Bitcoin price dropped below $98,000 following the Federal Reserve's more hawkish than expected policy outlook Fed projects fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 than previously indicated Bitcoin fell from [...]

The Fed surprised markets with its interest rate outlook next year. Investors are eyeing a number of scenarios for 2025. Wall Street sees a prolonged Fed pause as likely, given [...]

(https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ1g7vbGWB9VXpRt2gfIJlnlyCI47nXGFbD2K3fSwCrtKnsiRsl8wsRx1lQ2MxQ0L2MAr7LqN6Hn1lmbmJQj9sy8kfdCRNLyQYW1Mi8JxQf2z8QgkO24MyGcH2jg91mC4V1ImWYlPiHKmxiNyDedz-Ul0hyphenhyphenzJPtt-G9AKMhkl_9elARsrGprB5-Vtk1kbt/s698/week.png) The US dollar advanced against all the G10 currencies last week but the Swiss franc but turned in a most mixed performance against emerging market currencies. The US 10-year [...]

Byline: Moneylife Digital Team For the 11th consecutive time, the monetary policy committee (MPC) of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to maintain the status quo on the repo rate, [...]

(https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCvkHqHmMsb1xj0JWLnV3T2jCegLJbT7V452tqf47noShLY8D6m2PXmW2DCosooMNDLYEYIGggwUZQQf2shYB52_DKN1tnvh4E4ml1qk_5CNIdcAOlnyrLgLaEU2T7PgY_9TTt7dGGJNZTP06vrNhawKa9WNTxIl6DoApr2aupgKp2YVRrMgzo6PfVGe6c/s706/Thurs%202.png) Overview: The markets are calmer after yesterday's post-US election drama. A consolidative tone has emerged in the foreign exchange market, and the dollar is softer against all the G10 [...]

Monetary policy is determined by the regional central bank, the Banque centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'ouest (BCEAO), which prioritises inflation-targeting in its eight member countries, as well as [...]

The Banque centrale du Congo (BCC, the central bank) has signalled its willingness to raise interest rates, if inflation rises further and the rate of currency depreciation suddenly accelerates, although [...]

Monetary policy is determined by UEMOA's central bank, the Banque centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'ouest (BCEAO), which prioritises inflation-targeting in its eight member countries, as well as maintaining [...]

The short-term focus will remain on the dismantling of the unorthodox economic programme that started in 2021, including tighter monetary policy, which will reassure investors. These policies are designed to [...]

We forecast that the RBI will start its monetary easing cycle with a 25-basis-point reduction in the policy interest rate (the repo rate) to 6.25% in December 2024, as it [...]

After the war precipitated a sharp contraction in domestic demand in late 2023 and inflation concerns abated, the BOI began its loosening cycle in January by cutting its main policy [...]

We expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue its easing cycle at a gradual pace, amid pockets of resilient services inflation. At its last monetary policy meeting, on September [...]

The National Bank of Serbia (NBS, the central bank) runs an inflation-targeting monetary policy, with a headline inflation target on a three-year horizon of 3% (±1.5 percentage points). Its main [...]

The yen will strengthen against the US dollar, especially after the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) cut interest rates in September. The pace of yen appreciation will be moderate. [...]

We expect the Bank of Korea (BOK, South Korea's central bank) to start an easing cycle by cutting its policy rate, currently at 3.5%, by 25 basis points at its [...]

The Real has been under pressure since mid-2024 owing to investor concerns about the strength of-and Lula's commitment to-Brazil's fiscal framework, as well as narrower interest-rate differentials with the US [...]

(https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs0UtLobKS4BERyFH9ofz5Vh8DizY6TgEK6A-6UEN8jnsBtIgnTPPBFHd1gTvIhcI_B4CDEu4sP4_uAZHW0BS-ewA2TkKO25zrL4ADncR2t2rIFfns0tCfmFXJKtsCvDCjPDAWcgs7HXxTtzq6ZoNoBmLzvaPdRqRz4rnsu1bEF5cVP3UkO4Ywvr3z-3ej/s702/October.png) With the Federal Reserve's 50 bp rate cut, seven of the G10 central banks have begun an easing cycle that will extend, broaden, and may accelerate going forward. Australia [...]

(https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZEUqprjkaL7nOXvP7rqoZnENNoLsQUwdDtquwMSjgj4RwZ4e_SVVFd_k2MalsAHgB7h5bOfnVXfnRUmfa2lisWV5CSHba_pxxsjCad_ZoeOvp5HF09O7i96WRfEV4cE-RjlP1UUCG-Ux9_Orp7ttGGMEmO_NkCm90FOtu_muS2AlQZKq31ZZIGLYE48X5/s676/Wed%202.png) Overview: Weak US consumer confidence, especially regarding the labor market boosted speculation of another half-point Fed cut in November when the central bank meets again. This weighed on the [...]

(https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9rXvJ4_jxGsmFFhJGxN4h5dqP-nApkvhgcu9nGETC29-XImEm42uXo0JP7AyZh51l0sJKqqZhamRI0XJF7yEt6WeAMRKilN1sM0u3KA5VBI6u8zKsIW6ufboGrr_h-22dUM8K7Qe3Ac0fF8-y5EV0IqwWoLHXi9PZmRRBO64X8aumcOo1OaL5BX3DIbEH/s681/week%20ahead.png) The Federal Reserve kicked off its easing cycle with a 50 bp rate cut on September 18. It is the seventh G10 central bank to cut rates this year. [...]

(https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfCborulZ-ypJVispw58uSiR-dsE59hAy-_zAecQhzgav4_0fhXKNqrp6Ipe-9EDgaDhZwhMVx6UM3XRD65qj8ETz9Lp7xSYs5dZp2vE0aBFh4L7wj3V9xalbp2_fWQxr1KufDyX8hfq2gRrKQDteEtU_5-0nUvi6ffHURotlXCPmOKhw4mIE6arAwEDnW/s677/mon%20policy.png) The market had been gradually scaling back from speculation of a 50 bp cut this week by the Federal Reserve. The euro and sterling tested important technical support near [...]

Palestine does not issue its own currency; it uses a combination of Israeli shekels, Jordanian dinars and US dollars. As a result, and given that trade is primarily conducted via [...]

The Canadian dollar has depreciated as a result of the widening interest-rate differential between Canada and the US, as the BoC has moved to reduce interest rates rapidly, whereas the [...]

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB, the central bank) kept the benchmark repo rate at a 15-year high of 8.25% in July, marking a seventh consecutive hold, which leaves the [...]

After cutting the policy rate by 100 basis points in January, the Bank of Ghana (BoG, the central bank) has kept the policy interest rate unchanged at 29% at its [...]

The Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA, the central bank) lacks an inflation-targeting framework but sets an informal, adjustable, medium-term target of single-digit price growth, which we deem to be achievable [...]

Given the Qatari riyal's peg to the US dollar, we expect the Qatar Central Bank (QCB) to take interest-rate changes announced by the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank) [...]

The riyal's peg to the US dollar means that the main policy rate of the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) will continue to track the interest-rate changes announced by the Federal [...]

The presidential appointment of a political ally, Timur Suleymenov, a former economy minister, as chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK, the central bank) in 2023 has led to [...]

Gold has re-emerged as a critical asset for investors seeking to hedge against inflation and monetary uncertainty in the 2020s. Unlike previous gold bull markets, the dynamics driving gold’s rise [...]

We forecast that the RBI will cut the policy interest rate (the repo rate) by 25 basis points to 6.25% in the last quarter of 2024, as it takes account [...]

We believe that the Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR, the central bank) is almost at the end of its monetary-loosening cycle, having reduced its policy rate by 425 basis [...]

The Central Bank of Barbados (CBB) is working with the Fund to fine-tune monetary policy. Barbados's fixed exchange rate and long-standing capital controls shelter the economy from the effects of [...]

After an official transition to an interest-rate-targeting operational framework in February 2024, in August the monetary policy committee of the Banque centrale de Madagascar (the central bank) raised interest rates, [...]

Despite price pressures remaining elevated, aggravated by the drought and weakness of the kwacha, in mid-August the Bank of Zambia (BoZ, the central bank) kept its main policy rate unchanged [...]

We expect the Bank of Korea (BOK, South Korea's central bank) to keep its policy rate at 3.5% until October 2024. By then, subsiding domestic inflation and a shift to [...]

We expect the Bank of Thailand (BOT, the central bank) to commence monetary easing in the final quarter of 2024. Policy priorities will return to supporting growth, given an expectation [...]

The Bank of England (BoE, the central bank) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5% on August 1st, after 14 consecutive rises. This was after the first cut [...]

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS, the central bank) uses the exchange rate as its monetary policy lever. It will intervene heavily in currency markets to maintain exchange-rate stability (within [...]

Political and economic outlook Pakistan is a lower middle-income economy with chronic imbalances on its fiscal and external accounts. Concerns about political stability, domestic security and weakness in economic fundamentals [...]

The National Bank of Serbia (NBS, the central bank) runs an inflation-targeting monetary policy, with a headline inflation target on a three-year horizon of 3% (±1.5 percentage points). Its main [...]

We believe that a slowing in the economy-with consumers reducing their spending, real wage gains decelerating and the number of new jobs gradually falling-points to the Federal Reserve (Fed, the [...]

We expect the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan), or CBC, to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold at 2% until December. Consumer price inflation will remain [...]

The National Bank of Romania (NBR, the central bank) cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at its meeting in August, leaving the main policy rate at 6.5%. This [...]

The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to its US counterpart within a range of HK$7.75-7.85:US$1. This means that local policy interest rates are determined by the actions of the Federal [...]

With the war precipitating a sharp contraction in domestic demand in late 2023 and inflation concerns abating, the BOI began its loosening cycle in January by cutting its main policy [...]

We expect the currency to end 2024 at Kc24.8:EUR1. The koruna has depreciated to about Kc25.3:EUR1 since June, owing to a narrower interest-rate spread with the European Central Bank (ECB) [...]

The primary mandate of the Czech National Bank (CNB, the central bank) is to maintain price stability. The CNB cut its official interest rate by 250 basis points between December [...]

The yen will remain weak against the US dollar until late 2024, as we expect the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) only to start cutting rates in September. Despite [...]

We expect inflation to average just under 58% in 2024-the highest rate in the OECD. As expected, annual inflation peaked at more than 75% in May. Although it slowed to [...]