1. The potential effect of improved provision of rabies post-exposure prophylaxis in Gavi-eligible countries: a modelling study
- Author
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Hampson, Katie, Ventura, Francesco, Steenson, Rachel, Mancy, Rebecca, Trotter, Caroline, Cooper, Laura, Abela-Ridder, Bernadette, Knopf, Lea, Ringenier, Moniek, Tenzin, Tenzin, Ly, Sowath, Tarantola, Arnaud, Moyengar, Ronelngar, Oussiguéré, Assandi, Bonfoh, Bassirou, Narayana, DH Ashwath, Sudarshan, Mysore Kalappa, Muturi, Matthew, Mwatondo, Athman, Wambura, Gati, Andriamandimby, Soa Fy, Baril, Laurence, Edosoa, Glenn, Traore, Abdallah, Jayme, Sarah, Kotzé, Johann, Gunesekera, Amila, Chitnis, Nakul, Hattendorf, Jan, Laager, Mirjam, Léchenne, Monique, ZINSSTAG, Jakob, Changalucha, Joel, Mtema, Zac, Lugelo, Ahmed, Lushasi, Kennedy, Yurachai, Onphirul, Metcalf, Charlotte Jessica E., Rajeev, Malavika, Blanton, Jesse, Costa, Galileu Barbosa, Sreenivasan, Nandini, Wallace, Ryan, Briggs, Deborah, Taylor, Louise, Thumbi, Samuel, Huong, Nguyen Thi Thanh, University of Glasgow, University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), Neglected Zoonotic Diseases (NZD), Organisation Mondiale de la Santé / World Health Organization Office (OMS / WHO), World Health Organisation (WHO), Unité d'Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique [Phnom Penh], Institut Pasteur du Cambodge, Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur (RIIP)-Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur (RIIP), Centre de Recherche Agronomique de la Savane Humide, Institut Togolais de Recherche Agronomique, Unité de Virologie [Antananarivo, Madagascar] (IPM), Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur (RIIP), Ministère de la Santé Publique [Antananarivo, Madagascar], Laboratoire Central Vétérinaire du Mali, Partenaires INRAE, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute [Basel], Princeton University, Poxvirus and Rabies Branch, Division of High-Consequence Pathogens and Pathology, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Disease, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Laboratório de Vírus, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais [Belo Horizonte] (UFMG)-Instituto de Ciências Biológicas [Goiânia, Brésil] (ICB), Global Alliance for Rabies Control [Manhattan, Kansas], Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, Universiteit Gent = Ghent University [Belgium] (UGENT), National Centre for Animal Health [Bhoutan] (NCAH), Centre de Support en Santé Internationale [N'Djamena, Tchad] (CSSI), Institut de Recherche en Elevage pour le Developpement [N'Djamena, Tchad] (IRED), Centre Suisse de Recherches Scientifiques en Cote d'Ivoire [Abidjan] (CSRS-CI), Laboratoire Central Vétérinaire [Bamako, Mali], Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais [Belo Horizonte] (UFMG), Kansas State University, Washington State University (WSU), National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology [Hanoi, Vietnam] (NIHE), This work is supported by a grant from WHO to the Universities of Glasgow and Cambridge. KH and RMa were supported by the Wellcome Trust (207569/Z/17/Z), with additional funding for RMa from Stuart H Leckie. The Wellcome Trust through Afrique One ASPIRE also supported MLe and several unpublished studies and the UBS Optimus Foundation supported LT and SJ. The Gavi learning agenda on rabies supported many of the unpublished studies that contributed data. The Swiss National Science Foundation supported MLa. The Institut Pasteur financed studies in Cambodia., and WHO Rabies Modelling Consortium
- Subjects
MESH: Rabies virus / isolation & purification ,MESH: Rabies virus / immunology ,MESH: Bites and Stings / virology ,MESH: World Health Organization ,MESH: Cost-Benefit Analysis / methods ,MESH: Dogs ,MESH: Rabies / prevention & control ,MESH: Rabies / epidemiology ,[SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases ,MESH: Post-Exposure Prophylaxis / economics ,MESH: Rabies / virology ,MESH: Animals ,MESH: Incidence ,MESH: Dog Diseases / prevention & control ,MESH: Immunoglobulins / therapeutic use ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS ,MESH: Models, Economic ,MESH: Humans ,MESH: Rabies Vaccines / therapeutic use ,MESH: Endemic Diseases / prevention & control ,MESH: Child, Preschool ,MESH: Post-Exposure Prophylaxis / methods ,MESH: Rabies / mortality ,MESH: Male ,MESH: Quality-Adjusted Life Years ,MESH: Rabies Vaccines / economics ,MESH: Vaccination / economics ,MESH: Female - Abstract
International audience; Background: Tens of thousands of people die from dog-mediated rabies annually. Deaths can be prevented through post-exposure prophylaxis for people who have been bitten, and the disease eliminated through dog vaccination. Current post-exposure prophylaxis use saves many lives, but availability remains poor in many rabies-endemic countries due to high costs, poor access, and supply.Methods: We developed epidemiological and economic models to investigate the effect of an investment in post-exposure prophylaxis by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. We modelled post-exposure prophylaxis use according to the status quo, with improved access using WHO-recommended intradermal vaccination, with and without rabies immunoglobulin, and with and without dog vaccination. We took the health provider perspective, including only direct costs.Findings: We predict more than 1 million deaths will occur in the 67 rabies-endemic countries considered from 2020 to 2035, under the status quo. Current post-exposure prophylaxis use prevents approximately 56 000 deaths annually. Expanded access to, and free provision of, post-exposure prophylaxis would prevent an additional 489 000 deaths between 2020 and 2035. Under this switch to efficient intradermal post-exposure prophylaxis regimens, total projected vaccine needs remain similar (about 73 million vials) yet 17·4 million more people are vaccinated, making this an extremely cost-effective method, with costs of US$635 per death averted and $33 per disability-adjusted life-years averted. Scaling up dog vaccination programmes could eliminate dog-mediated rabies over this time period; improved post-exposure prophylaxis access remains cost-effective under this scenario, especially in combination with patient risk assessments to reduce unnecessary post-exposure prophylaxis use.Interpretation: Investing in post-exposure vaccines would be an extremely cost-effective intervention that could substantially reduce disease burden and catalyse dog vaccination efforts to eliminate dog-mediated rabies.Funding: World Health Organization.
- Published
- 2019