1. Low performance of prognostic tools for predicting death before dialysis in older patients with advanced CKD
- Author
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Cécile Vigneau, C. Prelipcean, Pspa Study Investigators, Valéry Antoine, Cécile Couchoud, Julien Prouvot, Olivier Moranne, Maud Francois, Christophe Mariat, Emilie Pambrun, Sophie Roche, Daniela Babici, Institut Desbrest de santé publique (IDESP), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Nîmes (CHU Nîmes), Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive - UMR 5558 (LBBE), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Agence de la biomédecine [Saint-Denis la Plaine], CHU Pontchaillou [Rennes], Institut de recherche en santé, environnement et travail (Irset), Université d'Angers (UA)-Université de Rennes (UR)-École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] (EHESP)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Structure Fédérative de Recherche en Biologie et Santé de Rennes ( Biosit : Biologie - Santé - Innovation Technologique ), Centre hospitalier Les Chanaux [Mâcon], CHU Trousseau [Tours], Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Tours (CHRU Tours), Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Saint-Etienne [CHU Saint-Etienne] (CHU ST-E), Centre Hospitalier Emile Muller [Mulhouse] (CH E.Muller Mulhouse), Groupe Hospitalier de Territoire Haute Alsace (GHTHA), La Societe Francophone de Nephrologie et de Dialyse, La Societe Francaise de Nephrologie Dialyse Transplantation, l'Agence de BiomedecineFrench National Research Agency (ANR), Nimes University Hospital, Université d'Angers (UA)-Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] (EHESP)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Structure Fédérative de Recherche en Biologie et Santé de Rennes ( Biosit : Biologie - Santé - Innovation Technologique ), CHU Saint-Etienne, Structure Fédérative de Recherche en Biologie et Santé de Rennes ( Biosit : Biologie - Santé - Innovation Technologique )-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] (EHESP)-Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), and Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université d'Angers (UA)
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medicine.medical_specialty ,medicine.medical_treatment ,[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] ,Population ,030232 urology & nephrology ,Renal function ,Disease ,[SDV.MHEP.UN]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Urology and Nephrology ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Elderly ,Renal Dialysis ,Risk Factors ,Internal medicine ,CKD ,Medicine ,Humans ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Prospective Studies ,ESRD ,Renal Insufficiency, Chronic ,education ,Dialysis ,Aged ,Aged, 80 and over ,education.field_of_study ,business.industry ,Absolute risk reduction ,medicine.disease ,Prognosis ,3. Good health ,Brier score ,Nephrology ,Cohort ,Disease Progression ,business ,Kidney disease ,Glomerular Filtration Rate - Abstract
International audience; Introduction Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a disease which is spreading worldwide, especially among older patients. Several prognostic scores have been developed to predict death in older CKD patients, but they have not been validated. We aimed to evaluate the existing risk scores for predicting death before dialysis start, identified via an in-depth review, in a cohort of elderly patients with advanced CKD. Methods We performed a review to identify scores predicting death, developed in and applicable to CKD patients. Each score was evaluated with an absolute risk calculation from the patients' baseline characteristics. We used a French prospective multicentre cohort of elderly patients (> 75 years) with advanced CKD [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 20 mL/min/1.73 m(2)], recruited from nephrological centres, with a 5-year follow-up. The outcome considered was death before initiating dialysis. Discrimination [area under curve (AUC)], calibration and Brier score were calculated for each score at its time frame. Results Our review found 6 equations predicting death before dialysis in CKD patients. Four of these (GOLDFARB, BANSAL, GRAMS 2 and 4 years) were evaluated. The validation cohort (Parcours de Soins des Personnes agees Parcours de Soins des Personnes agees, PSPA) included 573 patients, with a median age of 82 years and a median eGFR of 13 mL/min/1.73 m(2). At the end of follow-up, 287 (50%) patients had started dialysis and 238 (41%) patients had died before dialysis. The four equations evaluated showed average discrimination (AUC 0.61-0.70) and, concerning calibration, a global overestimation of the risk of death. Discussion The available scores predicting death before dialysis showed low performance among older patients with advanced CKD in a French multicentre cohort, indicating the need to upgrade them or develop new scores for this population.
- Published
- 2021
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