1. Assessing the Value of New Antimicrobials: Evaluations of Cefiderocol and Ceftazidime-Avibactam to Inform Delinked Payments by the NHS in England.
- Author
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Woods B, Kearns B, Schmitt L, Jankovic D, Rothery C, Harnan S, Hamilton J, Scope A, Ren S, Bojke L, Wilcox M, Hope W, Leonard C, Howard P, Jenkins D, Ashworth A, Bentley A, and Sculpher M
- Subjects
- Humans, England, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Decision Support Techniques, Ceftazidime therapeutic use, Ceftazidime economics, Azabicyclo Compounds therapeutic use, Azabicyclo Compounds economics, Cephalosporins therapeutic use, Cephalosporins economics, Drug Combinations, State Medicine, Cefiderocol, Anti-Bacterial Agents economics, Anti-Bacterial Agents therapeutic use
- Abstract
Objectives: The UK has recently established subscription-payment agreements for two antimicrobials: cefiderocol and ceftazidime-avibactam. This article summarises the novel value assessments that informed this process and lessons learned for future pricing and funding decisions., Methods: The evaluations used decision modelling to predict population incremental net health effects (INHEs), informed by systematic reviews, evidence syntheses, national surveillance data and structured expert elicitation., Results: Significant challenges faced during the development of the evaluations led to profound uncertainty in the estimates of INHEs. The value assessment required definition of the population expected to receive the new antimicrobials; estimating value within this heterogenous population; assessing comparative efficacy using antimicrobial susceptibility data due to the absence of relevant clinical data; and predicting population-level benefits despite poor data on current numbers of drug-resistant infections and uncertainties around emerging resistance. Though both antimicrobials offer the potential to treat multi-drug resistant infections, the benefits estimated were modest due to the rarity of true pan-resistance, low life expectancy of the patient population and difficulty of identifying and quantifying additional sources of value., Conclusions: Assessing the population INHEs of new antimicrobials was complex and resource intensive. Future evaluations should continue to assemble evidence relating to areas of expected usage, patient numbers over time and comparative effectiveness and safety. Projections of patient numbers could be greatly enhanced by the development of national level linked clinical, prescribing and laboratory data. A practical approach to synthesising these data would be to combine expert assessments of key parameters with a simple generic decision model., Competing Interests: Declarations. Competing Interests and Disclosures: B.W. sits on the Board of the York Health Economics Consortium, a private sector company (role not remunerated). M.S. has been a paid consultant to various life sciences companies, none relating to antimicrobials. M.W. reports institutional research support and funding from Almirall, Da Volterra, EnteroBiotix, GSK, Merck, MicroPharm, Nabriva, Paratek, Pfizer, Seres, Summit, The European Tissue Symposium and Tillotts, and personal fees from AiCuris, Bayer, Crestone, Da Volterra, Deinove, EnteroBiotix, The European Tissue Symposium, Ferring, GSK, Menarini, Merck, Nestlé, Paion, Paratek, Pfizer, Phico Therapeutics, Qpex Biopharma, Seres, Surface Skins, Summit, Tillotts and Vaxxilon/Idorsia, outside the submitted work. W.H. reports grants and personal fees from F2G, grants and personal fees from Pfizer, grants from Bugworks, grants from Phico Therapeutics, personal fees from GSK, personal fees from Mundipharma, personal fees from Pulmocide and grants from GARDP, outside the submitted work. C.L. reports personal fees from INFEX Therapeutics Ltd, outside the submitted work. P.H. reports that he works for NHS England in the AMR Programme and the UK National Action Plan for AMR has a goal to introduce a delinked payment model. D.Je. reports personal fees from Pfizer and Shionogi, outside the submitted work. B.K., L.S., D.Ja., C.R., S.H., J.H., A.S., S.R., L.B., A.A. and A.B. report no relevant competing interests. Ethics Approval: Ethics approval for the expert elicitation exercise was granted from the University of York Department of Health Sciences Research Governance committee (reference no.: HSRGC/2021/448/G; date of approval: 14 May 2021). No other activities required primary data collection, so no further ethics approval was required. Consent to Participate: The experts included within the expert elicitation exercise received a Participant Information Sheet and completed a Participant Consent Form. These materials were reviewed as part of ethics approval. Consent for Publication (from patients/participants): Consent for publication of results relating to the elicitation exercise was sought as part of the overall consent to participate process. Data Availability: The only primary data collection for this study related to the expert elicitation; ethics approval for this element of the study does not permit data sharing. All queries should be sent to the corresponding author. Code Availability: The code is available from the authors by email request. Funding: This work was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Policy Research Programme, conducted through the Policy Research Unit in Economic Methods of Evaluation in Health and Social Care Interventions, PR-PRU-1217-20401. Author Contributions: B.W., B.K., L.S., D.Ja., C.R. and M.S. conceptualised and developed the economic modelling and underlying statistical analyses. B.W., B.K., L.S., D.Ja., C.R., S.H., A.S. and M.S. designed and undertook the review elements and contributed to the design of the evidence synthesis. J.H. and S.R. designed and conducted the evidence synthesis. D.Ja. and L.B. designed and conducted the expert elicitation. M.W., W.H., C.L., P.H., D.Je., A.A. and A.B. contributed to identification of the high-value clinical scenarios and areas of expected usage, contributed to the design of the model including appropriateness of evidence and helped to classify infections sites using specimen data. All authors contributed to the development of the manuscript and reviewed the final version., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)
- Published
- 2025
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