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There is no multi-country/multi-language study testing a-priori multivariable associations between non-modifiable/modifiable factors and validated wellbeing/multidimensional mental health outcomes before/during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, studies during COVID-19 pandemic generally do not report on representative/weighted non-probability samples. The Collaborative Outcomes study on Health and Functioning during Infection Times (COH-FIT) is a multi-country/multi-language survey conducting multivariable/LASSO-regularized regression models and network analyses to identify modifiable/non-modifiable factors associated with wellbeing (WHO-5)/composite psychopathology (P-score) change. It enrolled general population-representative/weighted-non-probability samples (26/04/2020-19/06/2022). Participants included 121,066 adults (age=42±15.9 years, females=64 %, representative sample=29 %) WHO-5/P-score worsened (SMD=0.53/SMD=0.74), especially initially during the pandemic. We identified 15 modifiable/nine non-modifiable risk and 13 modifiable/three non-modifiable protective factors for WHO-5, 16 modifiable/11 non-modifiable risk and 10 modifiable/six non-modifiable protective factors for P-score. The 12 shared risk/protective factors with highest centrality (network-analysis) were, for non-modifiable factors, country income, ethnicity, age, gender, education, mental disorder history, COVID-19-related restrictions, urbanicity, physical disorder history, household room numbers and green space, and socioeconomic status. For modifiable factors, we identified medications, learning, internet, pet-ownership, working and religion as coping strategies, plus pre-pandemic levels of stress, fear, TV, social media or reading time, and COVID-19 information. In multivariable models, for WHO-5, additional non-modifiable factors with |B|>1 were income loss, COVID-19 deaths. For modifiable factors we identified pre-pandemic levels of social functioning, hobbies, frustration and loneliness, and social interactions as coping strategy. For P-scores, additional non-modifiable/modifiable factors were income loss, pre-pandemic infection fear, and social interactions as coping strategy. COH-FIT identified vulnerable sub-populations and actionable individual/environmental factors to protect well-being/mental health during crisis times. Results inform public health policies, and clinical practice., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest Conflict of interest statements of all authors are detailed in eTable 12., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

We propose a compartmental model for investigating smoking dynamics in an Italian region (Tuscany). Calibrating the model on local data from 1993 to 2019, we estimate the probabilities of starting and quitting smoking and the probability of smoking relapse. Then, we forecast the evolution of smoking prevalence until 2043 and assess the impact on mortality in terms of attributable deaths. We introduce elements of novelty with respect to previous studies in this field, including a formal definition of the equations governing the model dynamics and a flexible modelling of smoking probabilities based on cubic regression splines. We estimate model parameters by defining a two-step procedure and quantify the sampling variability via a parametric bootstrap. We propose the implementation of cross-validation on a rolling basis and variance-based Global Sensitivity Analysis to check the robustness of the results and support our findings. Our results suggest a decrease in smoking prevalence among males and stability among females, over the next two decades. We estimate that, in 2023, 18% of deaths among males and 8% among females are due to smoking. We test the use of the model in assessing the impact on smoking prevalence and mortality of different tobacco control policies, including the tobacco-free generation ban recently introduced in New Zealand., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

International studies measuring wellbeing/multidimensional mental health before/ during the COVID-19 pandemic, including representative samples for >2 years, identifying risk groups and coping strategies are lacking. COH-FIT is an online, international, anonymous survey measuring changes in well-being (WHO-5) and a composite psychopathology P-score, and their associations with COVID-19 deaths/restrictions, 12 a-priori defined risk individual/cumulative factors, and coping strategies during COVID-19 pandemic (26/04/2020-26/06/2022) in 30 languages (representative, weighted non-representative, adults). T-test, χ 2 , penalized cubic splines, linear regression, correlation analyses were conducted. Analyzing 121,066/142,364 initiated surveys, WHO-5/P-score worsened intra-pandemic by 11.1±21.1/13.2±17.9 points (effect size d=0.50/0.60) (comparable results in representative/weighted non-probability samples). Persons with WHO-5 scores indicative of depression screening (<50, 13% to 32%) and major depression (<29, 3% to 12%) significantly increased. WHO-5 worsened from those with mental disorders, female sex, COVID-19-related loss, low-income country location, physical disorders, healthcare worker occupations, large city location, COVID-19 infection, unemployment, first-generation immigration, to age=18-29 with a cumulative effect. Similar findings emerged for P-score. Changes were significantly but minimally related to COVID-19 deaths, returning to near-pre-pandemic values after >2 years. The most subjectively effective coping strategies were exercise and walking, internet use, social contacts. Identified risk groups, coping strategies and outcome trajectories can inform global public health strategies., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest Conflict of interest statements of all authors are detailed in eTable 8., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: to describe studies that evaluated the screening programmes implemented in the school during the COVID-19 pandemic., Design: a systematic literature review was conducted according to the PRISMA 2020 Guidelines. Studies published until December 2021 were included. The methodological quality of the studies was assessed with validated scales. Study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment were carried out by two authors independently., Setting and Participants: teachers and students belonging to schools of all levels, including universities., Main Outcomes Measures: a. transmission-related outcomes (such as the number or proportion of cases, cumulative frequency, incidence); b. feasibility/acceptability of the screening strategies; c. socioeconomic outcomes (such as testing cost, number of days spent in school, quarantine)., Results: after having removed duplicate articles, 2,822 records were retrieved. Thirty-six studies were included (15 used an observational design and 21 modelling study). Regarding the former, the methodological quality has been rated as high in 2 studies, intermediate in 6 and low in 2; in the remaining ones, it was not evaluated because only descriptive. Screenings were quite different in terms of school study population, types of tests used, methods of submission and analysis, and level of incidence in the community at the time of implementation. Outcome indicators were also varied, a heterogeneity that, on the one hand, did not allow for meta-analysis of results and, on the other, allowed for testing the performance of the screenings in very different settings. All of the field studies claim that the screenings reduced SARS-CoV-2 exposure and infection among children, adolescents, and college students, curbing at-school transmission and helping to reduce the number of closing school days. Studies that evaluated the cost of the intervention emphasized its cost-effectiveness, while those that focused on the acceptability of the instrument showed a preference among children, adolescents, and parents for minimally invasive, self-administered tests with high sensitivity and lower frequency of repetition. Simulation-based studies are mostly based on compartmental and agent-based models. Their quality is quite high methodologically, although uncertainty quantification and external validation, aimed at verifying the model ability to reproduce observed data, are lacking in many cases. The contexts to which the simulations refer are all school-based, although 7 studies consider residential situations, which are poorly suited to the Italian context. All simulation-based models indicate the importance of planning repeated testing on asymptomatic individuals to limit contagion. However, the costs of these procedures can be high unless assessments are spaced out or pool testing procedures are used. Obtaining high student adherence to the screening programme is extremely important to maximize results., Conclusions: school-based screenings, especially when combined with other preventive measures, have been important public health tools to contain infections during COVID-19 waves and to ensure children's and adolescents' right to education and to prevent the fallout in physical and mental health (with strong equity consequences) associated with school closures.

Background: The Collaborative Outcome study on Health and Functioning during Infection Times (COH-FIT; www.coh-fit.com) is an anonymous and global online survey measuring health and functioning during the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this study was to test concurrently the validity of COH-FIT items and the internal validity of the co-primary outcome, a composite psychopathology "P-score"., Methods: The COH-FIT survey has been translated into 30 languages (two blind forward-translations, consensus, one independent English back-translation, final harmonization). To measure mental health, 1-4 items ("COH-FIT items") were extracted from validated questionnaires (e.g. Patient Health Questionnaire 9). COH-FIT items measured anxiety, depressive, post-traumatic, obsessive-compulsive, bipolar and psychotic symptoms, as well as stress, sleep and concentration. COH-FIT Items which correlated r ≥ 0.5 with validated companion questionnaires, were initially retained. A P-score factor structure was then identified from these items using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) on data split into training and validation sets. Consistency of results across languages, gender and age was assessed., Results: From >150,000 adult responses by May 6th, 2022, a subset of 22,456 completed both COH-FIT items and validated questionnaires. Concurrent validity was consistently demonstrated across different languages for COH-FIT items. CFA confirmed EFA results of five first-order factors (anxiety, depression, post-traumatic, psychotic, psychophysiologic symptoms) and revealed a single second-order factor P-score, with high internal reliability (ω = 0.95). Factor structure was consistent across age and sex., Conclusions: COH-FIT is a valid instrument to globally measure mental health during infection times. The P-score is a valid measure of multidimensional mental health., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest Conflict of interest statements of all authors are detailed in Supplementary Table 7., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The emergence of hyper-transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants that rapidly became prevalent throughout the world in 2022 made it clear that extensive vaccination campaigns cannot represent the sole measure to stop COVID-19. However, the effectiveness of control and mitigation strategies, such as the closure of non-essential businesses and services, is debated. To assess the individual behaviours mostly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, a questionnaire-based case-control study was carried out in Tuscany, Central Italy, from May to October 2021. At the testing sites, individuals were invited to answer an online questionnaire after being notified regarding the test result. The questionnaire collected information about test result, general characteristics of the respondents, and behaviours and places attended in the week prior to the test/symptoms onset. We analysed 440 questionnaires. Behavioural differences between positive and negative subjects were assessed through logistic regression models, adjusting for a fixed set of confounders. A ridge regression model was also specified. Attending nightclubs, open-air bars or restaurants and crowded clubs, outdoor sporting events, crowded public transportation, and working in healthcare were associated with an increased infection risk. A negative association with infection, besides face mask use, was observed for attending open-air shows and sporting events in indoor spaces, visiting and hosting friends, attending courses in indoor spaces, performing sport activities (both indoor and outdoor), attending private parties, religious ceremonies, libraries, and indoor restaurants. These results might suggest that during the study period people maintained a particularly responsible and prudent approach when engaging in everyday activities to avoid spreading the virus.

During autumn 2020, Italy faced a second important SARS-CoV-2 epidemic wave. We explored the time pattern of the instantaneous reproductive number, R 0 ( t ), and estimated the prevalence of infections by region from August to December calibrating SIRD models on COVID-19-related deaths, fixing at values from literature Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) and average infection duration. A Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) was performed on the regional SIRD models. Then, we used Bayesian meta-analysis and meta-regression to combine and compare the regional results and investigate their heterogeneity. The meta-analytic R 0 ( t ) curves were similar in the Northern and Central regions, while a less peaked curve was estimated for the South. The maximum R 0 ( t ) ranged from 2.15 (South) to 2.61 (North) with an increase following school reopening and a decline at the end of October. The predictive performance of the regional models, assessed through cross validation, was good, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 7.2% and 10.9% when considering prediction horizons of 7 and 14 days, respectively. Average temperature, urbanization, characteristics of family medicine and healthcare system, economic dynamism, and use of public transport could partly explain the regional heterogeneity. The GSA indicated the robustness of the regional R 0 ( t ) curves to different assumptions on IFR. The infectious period turned out to have a key role in determining the model results, but without compromising between-region comparisons., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Cereda, Viscardi and Baccini.)

Clozapine-induced myocarditis and pericarditis are uncommon adverse effects of clozapine treatment. However, in most cases, they lead to clozapine discontinuation. Here, we describe a case of successful clozapine rechallenge after clozapine-induced myopericarditis. The patient, a 31-year-old male with treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS), developed dyspnea on exertion and chest pain on day 19 after the start of clozapine titration. An electrocardiogram (ECG) showed widespread, mild, convex ST interval elevation. While troponin levels were mildly elevated, the echocardiogram was unremarkable. A myopericarditis diagnosis was formulated, and clozapine was stopped, with a progressive resolution of clinical, laboratory and ECG abnormalities. After 6 months, a rechallenge with clozapine was attempted. A very slow titration scheme was adopted, along with close monitoring of clinical, laboratory and ECG parameters. Clozapine target dose was reached without the occurrence of any abnormality. Given the unique role of clozapine in the management of TRS, clozapine rechallenge may be considered after pericarditis, even with troponin levels elevation. Further studies are needed to update current clinical guidelines., (Copyright © 2022 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

The clinical outcome of the disease provoked by the SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19, is largely due to the development of interstitial pneumonia accompanied by an Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS), often requiring ventilatory support therapy in Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Current epidemiologic evidence is demonstrating that the COVID-19 prognosis is significantly influenced by its acute complications. Among these, delirium figures as one of the most frequent and severe, especially in the emergency setting, where it shows a significantly negative prognostic impact. In this regard, the aim of our study is to identify clinical severity factors of delirium complicating COVID-19 related-ARDS. We performed a comparative and correlation analysis using demographics, comorbidities, multisystemic and delirium severity scores and anti-delirium therapy in two cohorts of ARDS patients with delirium, respectively, due to COVID-19 ( n = 40) or other medical conditions ( n = 39). Our results indicate that delirium in COVID-19-related ARDS is more severe since its onset despite a relatively less severe systemic condition at the point of ICU admission and required higher dosages of antipsychotic and non-benzodiazepinic sedative therapy respect to non-COVID patients. Finally, the correlation analysis showed a direct association between the male gender and maximum dosage of anti-delirium medications needed within the COVID-19 group, which was taken as a surrogate of delirium severity. Overall, our results seem to indicate that pathogenetic factors specifically associated to severe COVID-19 are responsible for the high severity of delirium, paving the way for future research focused on the mechanisms of the cognitive alterations associated with COVID-19., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Madonna, Enrico, Ciappolino, Boscutti, Colombo, Turtulici, Cantù, Cereda, Delvecchio, De Falco, Chierichetti, Savioli, Grasselli and Brambilla.)

Background: . High-quality comprehensive data on short-/long-term physical/mental health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are needed., Methods: . The Collaborative Outcomes study on Health and Functioning during Infection Times (COH-FIT) is an international, multi-language (n=30) project involving >230 investigators from 49 countries/territories/regions, endorsed by national/international professional associations. COH-FIT is a multi-wave, on-line anonymous, cross-sectional survey [wave 1: 04/2020 until the end of the pandemic, 12 months waves 2/3 starting 6/24 months threreafter] for adults, adolescents (14-17), and children (6-13), utilizing non-probability/snowball and representative sampling. COH-FIT aims to identify non-modifiable/modifiable risk factors/treatment targets to inform prevention/intervention programs to improve social/health outcomes in the general population/vulnerable subgrous during/after COVID-19. In adults, co-primary outcomes are change from pre-COVID-19 to intra-COVID-19 in well-being (WHO-5) and a composite psychopathology P-Score. Key secondary outcomes are a P-extended score, global mental and physical health. Secondary outcomes include health-service utilization/functioning, treatment adherence, functioning, symptoms/behaviors/emotions, substance use, violence, among others., Results: . Starting 04/26/2020, up to 14/07/2021 >151,000 people from 155 countries/territories/regions and six continents have participated. Representative samples of ≥1,000 adults have been collected in 15 countries. Overall, 43.0% had prior physical disorders, 16.3% had prior mental disorders, 26.5% were health care workers, 8.2% were aged ≥65 years, 19.3% were exposed to someone infected with COVID-19, 76.1% had been in quarantine, and 2.1% had been COVID 19-positive., Limitations: . Cross-sectional survey, preponderance of non-representative participants., Conclusions: . Results from COH-FIT will comprehensively quantify the impact of COVID-19, seeking to identify high-risk groups in need for acute and long-term intervention, and inform evidence-based health policies/strategies during this/future pandemics., (Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has altered daily routines and family functioning, led to closing schools, and dramatically limited social interactions worldwide. Measuring its impact on mental health of vulnerable children and adolescents is crucial., Methods: The Collaborative Outcomes study on Health and Functioning during Infection Times (COH-FIT - www.coh-fit.com) is an on-line anonymous survey, available in 30 languages, involving >230 investigators from 49 countries supported by national/international professional associations. COH-FIT has thee waves (until the pandemic is declared over by the WHO, and 6-18 months plus 24-36 months after its end). In addition to adults, COH-FIT also includes adolescents (age 14-17 years), and children (age 6-13 years), recruited via non-probability/snowball and representative sampling and assessed via self-rating and parental rating. Non-modifiable/modifiable risk factors/treatment targets to inform prevention/intervention programs to promote health and prevent mental and physical illness in children and adolescents will be generated by COH-FIT. Co-primary outcomes are changes in well-being (WHO-5) and a composite psychopathology P-Score. Multiple behavioral, family, coping strategy and service utilization factors are also assessed, including functioning and quality of life., Results: Up to June 2021, over 13,000 children and adolescents from 59 countries have participated in the COH-FIT project, with representative samples from eleven countries., Limitations: Cross-sectional and anonymous design., Conclusions: Evidence generated by COH-FIT will provide an international estimate of the COVID-19 effect on children's, adolescents' and families', mental and physical health, well-being, functioning and quality of life, informing the formulation of present and future evidence-based interventions and policies to minimize adverse effects of the present and future pandemics on youth., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The outbreak of the pandemic associated with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) led researchers to find new potential treatments, including nonpharmacological molecules such as zinc (Zn2+). Specifically, the use of Zn2+ as a therapy for SARS-CoV-2 infection is based on several findings: 1) the possible role of the anti-inflammatory activity of Zn2+ on the aberrant inflammatory response triggered by COronaVIrus Disease 19 (COVID-19), 2) properties of Zn2+ in modulating the competitive balance between the host and the invading pathogens, and 3) the antiviral activity of Zn2+ on a number of pathogens, including coronaviruses. Furthermore, Zn2+ has been found to play a central role in regulating brain functioning and many disorders have been associated with Zn2+ deficiency, including neurodegenerative diseases, psychiatric disorders, and brain injuries. Within this context, we carried out a narrative review to provide an overview of the evidence relating to the effects of Zn2+ on the immune and nervous systems, and the therapeutic use of such micronutrients in both neurological and infective disorders, with the final goal of elucidating the possible use of Zn2+ as a preventive or therapeutic intervention in COVID-19. Overall, the results from the available evidence showed that, owing to its neuroprotective properties, Zn2+ supplementation could be effective not only on COVID-19-related symptoms but also on virus replication, as well as on COVID-19-related inflammation and neurological damage. However, further clinical trials evaluating the efficacy of Zn2+ as a nonpharmacological treatment of COVID-19 are required to achieve an overall improvement in outcome and prognosis., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Society for Nutrition.)

Background: On the current psychopharmacological panorama, the variety of substances able to provoke an episode of acute psychosis is rapidly increasing. Such psychotic episodes are classified according to the major category of symptoms: positive, negative, or cognitive psychotic episodes. On one hand, the abuse of methamphetamines, cannabis, and cocaine plays a big role in increasing the incidence of episodes resembling a psychotic disorder. On the other hand, the progress in terms of pharmacodynamics knowledge has led to the synthesis of new drugs, such as cannabinoids and cathinone's, which have rapidly entered into the common pool of abusers' habits. Regarding these newly synthesized substances of abuse, further clinical studies are needed to understand their psychogenic properties. The topic of this review is complicated due to the frequent abuse of psychotomimetic drugs by patients affected by psychotic disorders, a fact that makes it extremely difficult to distinguish between an induced psychosis and a re-exacerbation of a previously diagnosed disorder. Methods: The present narrative review summarizes results from clinical studies, thus investigating the psychotogenic properties of abused substances and the psychotic symptoms they can give rise to. It also discusses the association between substance abuse and psychosis, especially with regards to the differential diagnosis between a primary vs. a substance-induced psychotic disorder. Findings: Our findings support the theory that psychosis due to substance abuse is commonly observed in clinical practice. The propensity to develop psychosis seems to be a function of the severity of use and addiction. Of note, from a phenomenological point of view, it is possible to identify some elements that may help clinicians involved in differential diagnoses between primary and substance-induced psychoses. There remains a striking paucity of information on the outcomes, treatments, and best practices of substance-induced psychotic episodes., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Fiorentini, Cantù, Crisanti, Cereda, Oldani and Brambilla.)

Screening plans for prevention and containment of SARS-CoV-2 infection should take into account the epidemic context, the fact that undetected infected individuals may transmit the disease and that the infection spreads through outbreaks, creating clusters in the population. In this paper, we compare through simulations the performance of six screening plans based on poorly sensitive individual tests, in detecting infection outbreaks at the level of single classes in a typical European school context. The performance evaluation is done by simulating different epidemic dynamics within the class during the four weeks following the day of the initial infection. The plans have different costs in terms of number of individual tests required for the screening and are based on recurrent evaluations on all students or subgroups of students in rotation. Especially in scenarios where the rate of contagion is high, at an equal cost, testing half of the class in rotation every week appears to be better in terms of sensitivity than testing all students every two weeks. Similarly, testing one-fourth of the students every week is comparable with testing all students every two weeks, despite the first one is a much cheaper strategy. In conclusion, we show that in the presence of natural clusters in the population, testing subgroups of individuals belonging to the same cluster in rotation may have a better performance than testing all the individuals less frequently. The proposed simulations approach can be extended to evaluate more complex screening plans than those presented in the paper., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

With the aim of studying the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Tuscany region of Italy during the first epidemic wave (February-June 2020), we define a compartmental model that accounts for both detected and undetected infections and assumes that only notified cases can die. We estimate the infection fatality rate, the case fatality rate, and the basic reproduction number, modeled as a time-varying function, by calibrating on the cumulative daily number of observed deaths and notified infected, after fixing to plausible values the other model parameters to assure identifiability. The confidence intervals are estimated by a parametric bootstrap procedure and a Global Sensitivity Analysis is performed to assess the sensitivity of the estimates to changes in the values of the fixed parameters. According to our results, the basic reproduction number drops from an initial value of 6.055 to 0 at the end of the national lockdown, then it grows again, but remaining under 1. At the beginning of the epidemic, the case and the infection fatality rates are estimated to be 13.1% and 2.3%, respectively. Among the parameters considered as fixed, the average time from infection to recovery for the not notified infected appears to be the most impacting one on the model estimates. The probability for an infected to be notified has a relevant impact on the infection fatality rate and on the shape of the epidemic curve. This stresses the need of collecting information on these parameters to better understand the phenomenon and get reliable predictions., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Although many studies found an association between psychiatric disorders, especially major depressive disorder, and vitamin D deficiency, little is still known about the association between vitamin D and bipolar disorder (BD). Therefore, the present review aims at providing an overview of the available literature exploring the role of vitamin D in BD patients in different phases of the disease., Methods: From a bibliographic research in PubMed until April 2020, we collected ten original studies that fulfilled our inclusion criteria., Results: No significant differences in vitamin D levels between BD patients and other psychiatric disorders were found by most of the studies. In the majority of the studies, the average values of vitamin D in BD population were sub-threshold for vitamin D deficiency. Moreover, although an association between vitamin D levels and clinical symptomatology was observed in BD patients, it cannot be considered a specific marker of this disorder but a common characteristic shared with other psychiatric disorders, including schizophrenia and major depressive disorder. Finally, vitamin D supplementation was associated with a reduction in both depressive and manic symptoms., Limitations: Few studies with small and heterogeneous populations. Methodological heterogeneity in terms of vitamin D measurement and threshold., Conclusions: The results showed that vitamin D status does not differ between BD and other psychiatric conditions. However, given the correlation between vitamin D levels and depressive or manic symptoms, we could hypothesize that an adequate vitamin D status could positively affect the mood balance thanks to its immunomodulatory activity., (Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Objectives: about two months after the end of the lockdown imposed for the containment of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, the contagion dynamics in the Tuscany Region (Central Italy) have been assessed from the beginning of the emergency to the end of June through a compartmental model, and future medium-long term projections have been produced., Data and Methods: this study used a SIRD model in which the infection reproduction number R0 varied over time, according to a piecewise constant function. The fatality parameter and the time from contagion to infection resolution (death or recovery) were fixed to ensure parameter identifiability, and the model was calibrated on the Covid-19 deaths notified from March 9th to June 30th 2020. The uncertainty around the estimates was quantified through parametric bootstrap. Finally, the resulting model was used to produce medium-long term projections of the epidemic dynamics., Results: the date of the first infection in Tuscany was estimated as February 21st 2020. The value of R0(t) ranged from 7.78 (95%CI 7.55-7.89), at the beginning of the outbreak, to a value very close to 0 between April 27th and May 17th. Finally, R0(t) rose, reaching an average of 0.66 (0.32, 0.88) between May 18th and June 30th. At the epidemic peak, estimated at the beginning of April, the notified infected people circulating in the region were just 22% of those predicted by the model. According to the estimated SIRD, under the hypothetical scenario that R0(t) slightly exceeds 1 from the beginning of October 2020, a new wave of contagion could arise by next spring., Conclusions: the estimated trend of R0(t) is suggestive of a strong effect of the lockdown in Tuscany and of a mild increase of the contagion potentially attributable to the easing of the containment measures. Medium-long term projections unequivocally indicate that the danger of a new epidemic wave has not been averted.

The "rare type match problem" is the situation in which, in a criminal case, the suspect's DNA profile, matching the DNA profile of the crime stain, is not in the database of reference. Ideally, the evaluation of this observed match in the light of the two competing hypotheses (the crime stain has been left by the suspect or by another person) should be based on the calculation of the likelihood ratio and depends on the population proportions of the DNA profiles that are unknown. We propose a Bayesian nonparametric method that uses a two-parameter Poisson Dirichlet distribution as a prior over the ranked population proportions and discards the information about the names of the different DNA profiles. This model is validated using data coming from European Y-STR DNA profiles, and the calculation of the likelihood ratio becomes quite simple thanks to an Empirical Bayes approach for which we provided a motivation.

19 adolescents (age 10-16 years) have been tested with respect to their ability to solve a video-game, before and after a three week supplementation with a mixture of sugars + vitamins + carnitine (New-Gen). The validity of such a test has been previously compared with the classical Wechsler-Bellevue Scale. A good correlation was calculated with all the Weschsler items, not related with the cultural-linguistic status. The supplementation of the normal diet with New-Gen was accompanied by a marked improvement of the ability (time and number of trials) to solve the video-game test.