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BackgroundBeyond exposure to cigarette smoking and aging, the factors that influence lung function decline to incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remain unclear. Advancements have been made in categorizing COPD into emphysema and airway predominant disease subtypes; however, predicting which healthy individuals will progress to COPD is difficult because they can exhibit profoundly different disease trajectories despite similar initial risk factors. This study aimed to identify clinical, genetic, and radiological features that are directly linked-and subsequently predict-abnormal lung function.Methods and findingsWe employed graph modeling on 2,643 COPDGene participants (aged 45 to 80 years, 51.25% female, 35.1% African Americans; enrollment 11/2007-4/2011) with smoking history but normal spirometry at study enrollment to identify variables that are directly linked to future lung function abnormalities. We developed logistic regression and random forest predictive models for distinguishing individuals who maintain lung function from those who decline. Of the 131 variables analyzed, 6 were identified as informative to future lung function abnormalities, namely forced expiratory flow in the middle range (FEF25-75%), average lung wall thickness in a 10 mm radius (Pi10), severe emphysema, age, sex, and height. We investigated whether these features predict individuals leaving GOLD 0 status (normal spirometry according to Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) criteria). Linear models, trained with these features, were quite predictive (area under receiver operator characteristic curve or AUROC = 0.75). Random forest predictors performed similarly to logistic regression (AUROC = 0.7), indicating that no significant nonlinear effects were present. The results were externally validated on 150 participants from Specialized Center for Clinically Oriented Research (SCCOR) cohort (aged 45 to 80 years, 52.7% female, 4.7% African Americans; enrollment: 7/2007-12/2012) (AUROC = 0.89). The main limitation of longitudinal studies with 5- and 10-year follow-up is the introduction of mortality bias that disproportionately affects the more severe cases. However, our study focused on spirometrically normal individuals, who have a lower mortality rate. Another limitation is the use of strict criteria to define spirometrically normal individuals, which was unavoidable when studying factors associated with changes in normalized forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1%predicted) or the ratio of FEV1/FVC (forced vital capacity).ConclusionsThis study took an agnostic approach to identify which baseline measurements differentiate and predict the early stages of lung function decline in individuals with previous smoking history. Our analysis suggests that emphysema affects obstruction onset, while airway predominant pathology may play a more important role in future FEV1 (%predicted) decline without obstruction, and FEF25-75% may affect both.

Abstract Background Elastin breakdown and the resultant loss of lung elastic recoil is a hallmark of pulmonary emphysema in susceptible individuals as a consequence of tobacco smoke exposure. Systemic alterations to the synthesis and degradation of elastin may be important to our understanding of disease phenotypes in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We investigated the association of skin elasticity with pulmonary emphysema, obstructive lung disease, and blood biomarkers of inflammation and tissue protease activity in tobacco-exposed individuals. Methods Two hundred and thirty-six Caucasian individuals were recruited into a sub-study of the University of Pittsburgh Specialized Center for Clinically Orientated Research in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, a prospective cohort study of current and former smokers. The skin viscoelastic modulus (VE), a determinant of skin elasticity, was recorded from the volar forearm and facial wrinkling severity was determined using the Daniell scoring system. Results In a multiple regression analysis, reduced VE was significantly associated with cross-sectional measurement of airflow obstruction (FEV1/FVC) and emphysema quantified from computed tomography (CT) images, β = 0.26, p = 0.001 and β = 0.24, p = 0.001 respectively. In emphysema-susceptible individuals, elasticity-determined skin age was increased (median 4.6 years) compared to the chronological age of subjects without emphysema. Plasma biomarkers of inflammation (TNFR1, TNFR2, CRP, PTX3, and SAA) and matrix metalloproteinase activity (MMP1, TIMP1, TIMP2, and TIMP4) were inversely associated with skin elasticity. Conclusions We report that an objective non-invasive determinant of skin elasticity is independently associated with measures of lung function, pulmonary emphysema, and biomarkers of inflammation and tissue proteolysis in tobacco-exposed individuals. Loss of skin elasticity is a novel observation that may link the common pathological processes that drive tissue elastolysis in the extracellular matrix of the skin and lung in emphysema-susceptible individuals.