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Warming temperatures and rising moisture deficits are expected to increase the rates of background tree mortality–low amounts of tree mortality (~0.5%–2% year−1), characterizing the forest demographic processes in the absence of abrupt, coarse‐scale disturbance events (e.g. fire). When compounded over multiple decades and large areas, even minor increases in background tree mortality (e.g. <0.5% year−1) can cause changes to forest communities and carbon storage potential that are comparable to or greater than those caused by disturbances.We examine how temporal variability in rates of background tree mortality for four subalpine conifers reflects variability in climate and climate teleconnections using observations of tree mortality from 1982 to 2019 at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA. Individually marked trees (initial population 5,043) in 13 permanent plots—located across a range of site conditions, stand ages and species compositions—were censused for new mortality nine times over 37 years.Background tree mortality was primarily attributed to stress from unfavourable climate and competition (71.2%) and bark beetle activity (23.3%), whereas few trees died from wind (5.3%) and wildlife impacts (0.2%). Mean annualized tree mortality attributed to tree stress and bark beetles more than tripled across all stands between initial censuses (0.26% year−1, 1982–1993/1994) and recent censuses (0.82% year−1, 2008–2019). Higher rates of tree mortality were related to warmer maximum summer temperatures, greater summer moisture deficits, and negative anomalies in ENSO (La Niña), with greater effects of drought in some subpopulations (tree size, age and species). For example, in older stands (>250 years), larger and older trees were more likely to die than smaller and younger trees. Differences in tree mortality rates and sensitivity to climate among subpopulations that varied by stand type may lead to unexpected shifts in stand composition and structure.Synthesis. A strong relationship between higher rates of tree mortality and warmer, drier summer climate conditions implies that climate warming will continue to increase background mortality rates in subalpine forests. Combined with increases in disturbances and declining frequency of moist‐cool years suitable for seedling establishment, increasing rates of tree mortality have the potential to drive declines in subalpine tree populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate-induced increases in tree mortality are reported for many forests worldwide. Understanding the potential effects on carbon pools requires long-term monitoring of changes in forest biomass. We measured aboveground biomass (AGB) of living trees over a 34-year period (1982–2016) in permanent plots with varying stand ages, species compositions, and topographic settings in a subalpine forest in the Colorado Front Range. Stand-level and species-level AGB varied spatially and temporally in relation to stand age, successional processes, and site moisture classification. Young (ca. 122 years) postfire stands composed of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Engelm. ex S. Watson) had lower mean AGB than older (>250 years) mixed-species stands. Mesic stands had higher AGB than xeric or hydric stands of similar age. At the level of individual species, significant shifts in AGB among species were primarily explained by successional replacement of shade-intolerant pines by shade-tolerant Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm.) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.). The permanent plot network recorded significant shifts in species dominance and tree densities between 1982 and 2016, reflecting successional patterns developing over several centuries and the effects of recent localized windthrow, insects, and pathogens. Despite increases in tree mortality, there was a general pattern of increasing AGB across the forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of forest dynamics commonly assume that species composition of the seedling bank reflects the composition of the future forest canopy. However, many forest types exhibit persistent differences in relative dominance of species in the seedling bank versus the forest canopy. Species-specific differences in tree vital rates (e.g., in-growth, mortality, height growth, canopy residence time) across canopy positions may explain this discord in dominance between seedling banks and forest canopies. We tested for differences in tree vital rates for two widely distributed, coexisting species in subalpine forests of the Rocky Mountains, North America. We quantified seedling bank dynamics (>950 aged seedlings) and vital rates in permanent plots (>2500 trees) from 1982 to 2017 to determine if differences in vital rates explained the shift from seedling bank dominance by subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.) to codominance of the main canopy by subalpine fir and Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm.). Higher rates of fir recruitment into the main canopy were balanced by equally high rates of mortality, whereas spruce exhibited higher rates of net population increase and longer residence time in the main canopy. Projections of future forest trajectories from seedling bank composition can be improved by considering species-specific differences in vital rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]