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To develop algorithms to identify patients with advanced heart failure (HF) that can be applied to administrative data.In a population-based cohort of all residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, with greater than or equal to 1 HF billing code 2007-2017 (n=8657), we identified all patients with advanced HF (n=847) by applying the gold standard European Society of Cardiology advanced HF criteria via manual medical review by an HF cardiologist. The advanced HF index date was the date the patient first met all European Society of Cardiology criteria. We subsequently developed candidate algorithms to identify advanced HF using administrative data (billing codes and prescriptions relevant to HF or comorbidities that affect HF outcomes), applied them to the HF cohort, and assessed their ability to identify patients with advanced HF on or after their advanced HF index date.A single hospitalization for HF or ventricular arrhythmias identified all patients with advanced HF (sensitivity, 100%); however, the positive predictive value (PPV) was low (36.4%). More stringent definitions, including additional hospitalizations and/or other signs of advanced HF (hyponatremia, acute kidney injury, hypotension, or high-dose diuretic use), decreased the sensitivity but improved the specificity and PPV. For example, 2 hospitalizations plus 1 sign of advanced HF had a sensitivity of 72.7%, specificity of 89.8%, and PPV of 60.5%. Negative predictive values were high for all algorithms evaluated.Algorithms using administrative data can identify patients with advanced HF with reasonable performance.

Little is known regarding the prediction of the risks of asthma exacerbation after stopping asthma biologics.To develop and validate a predictive model for the risk of asthma exacerbations after stopping asthma biologics using machine learning models.We identified 3057 people with asthma who stopped asthma biologics in the OptumLabs Database Warehouse and considered a wide range of demographic and clinical risk factors to predict subsequent outcomes. The primary outcome used to assess success after stopping was having no exacerbations in the 6 months after stopping the biologic. Elastic-net logistic regression (GLMnet), random forest, and gradient boosting machine models were used with 10-fold cross-validation within a development (80%) cohort and validation cohort (20%).The mean age of the total cohort was 47.1 (SD, 17.1) years, 1859 (60.8%) were women, 2261 (74.0%) were White, and 1475 (48.3%) were in the Southern region of the United States. The elastic-net logistic regression model yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71-0.78) in the development and an AUC of 0.72 in the validation cohort. The random forest model yielded an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.68-0.79) in the development cohort and an AUC of 0.72 in the validation cohort. The gradient boosting machine model yielded an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.80) in the development cohort and an AUC of 0.74 in the validation cohort.Outcomes after stopping asthma biologics can be predicted with moderate accuracy using machine learning methods.

According to the 2020 report of the American Heart Association’s Heart & Stroke Statistics report, nearly 1,000 people are dying daily because of sudden out-of-hospital cardiac arrests and unfortunately, their survival rate is as low as 10%. Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM), a relatively rare genetic heart disease is one of these diseases but finding the right patient for the implantation of ICD is still a research question. Implantation of cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) can save the life of some of these patients. Due to the complexity of the identification of HCM patients, financial burdens, and the clinical risks involved in the ICD implantation procedure, HCM patients will go into a monitoring state before reaching the implantation trigger. Our study cohort shows about 82% of HCM deaths, did not have an ICD, which highlights the need to improve the pre-screening algorithms. In the current paper, we have proposed a new deep learning-based unsupervised clustering technique to facilitate the prioritization of patients to undergo ICD device implantation. This model uses over 900 echocardiographic measurements to find patients who benefit more from the ICD implantation procedure. Our model was trained and tested over 6 years of echo reports collected at Mayo Clinic. This model can be used as a decision support assistant for cardiologists in finding the right HCM patient when decision-making is hard.

In the digital age of the 21st century, we have witnessed an explosion in data matched by remarkable progress in the field of computer science and engineering, with the development of powerful and portable artificial intelligence-powered technologies. At the same time, global connectivity powered by mobile technology has led to an increasing number of connected users and connected devices. In just the past 5 years, the convergence of these technologies in obstetrics and gynecology has resulted in the development of innovative artificial intelligence-powered digital health devices that allow easy and accurate patient risk stratification for an array of conditions spanning early pregnancy, labor and delivery, and care of the newborn. Yet, breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and other new and emerging technologies currently have a slow adoption rate in medicine, despite the availability of large data sets that include individual electronic health records spanning years of care, genomics, and the microbiome. As a result, patient interactions with health care remain burdened by antiquated processes that are inefficient and inconvenient. A few health care institutions have recognized these gaps and, with an influx of venture capital investments, are now making in-roads in medical practice with digital products driven by artificial intelligence algorithms. In this article, we trace the history, applications, and ethical challenges of the artificial intelligence that will be at the forefront of digitally transforming obstetrics and gynecology and medical practice in general.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a lethal fibrosing interstitial lung disease with a mean survival time of less than 5 years. Nonspecific presentation, a lack of effective early screening tools, unclear pathobiology of early-stage IPF and the need for invasive and expensive procedures for diagnostic confirmation hinder early diagnosis. In this study, we introduce a new screening tool for IPF in primary care settings that requires no new laboratory tests and does not require recognition of early symptoms. Using subtle comorbidity signatures identified from the history of medical encounters of individuals, we developed an algorithm, called the zero-burden comorbidity risk score for IPF (ZCoR-IPF), to predict the future risk of an IPF diagnosis. ZCoR-IPF was trained on a national insurance claims database and validated on three independent databases, comprising a total of 2,983,215 participants, with 54,247 positive cases. The algorithm achieved positive likelihood ratios greater than 30 at a specificity of 0.99 across different cohorts, for both sexes, and for participants with different risk states and history of confounding diseases. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for ZCoR-IPF in predicting IPF exceeded 0.88 and was approximately 0.84 at 1 and 4 years before a conventional diagnosis, respectively. Thus, if adopted, ZCoR-IPF can potentially enable earlier diagnosis of IPF and improve outcomes of disease-modifying therapies and other interventions.