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Seroprevalence survey is the most practical method for accurately estimating infection attack rate (IAR) in an epidemic such as influenza. These studies typically entail selecting an arbitrary titer threshold for seropositivity (e.g. microneutralization [MN] 1∶40) and assuming the probability of seropositivity given infection (infection-seropositivity probability, ISP) is 100% or similar to that among clinical cases. We hypothesize that such conventions are not necessarily robust because different thresholds may result in different IAR estimates and serologic responses of clinical cases may not be representative. To illustrate our hypothesis, we used an age-structured transmission model to fully characterize the transmission dynamics and seroprevalence rises of 2009 influenza pandemic A/H1N1 (pdmH1N1) during its first wave in Hong Kong. We estimated that while 99% of pdmH1N1 infections became MN1∶20 seropositive, only 72%, 62%, 58% and 34% of infections among age 3-12, 13-19, 20-29, 30-59 became MN1∶40 seropositive, which was much lower than the 90%-100% observed among clinical cases. The fitted model was consistent with prevailing consensus on pdmH1N1 transmission characteristics (e.g. initial reproductive number of 1.28 and mean generation time of 2.4 days which were within the consensus range), hence our ISP estimates were consistent with the transmission dynamics and temporal buildup of population-level immunity. IAR estimates in influenza seroprevalence studies are sensitive to seropositivity thresholds and ISP adjustments which in current practice are mostly chosen based on conventions instead of systematic criteria. Our results thus highlighted the need for reexamining conventional practice to develop standards for analyzing influenza serologic data (e.g. real-time assessment of bias in ISP adjustments by evaluating the consistency of IAR across multiple thresholds and with mixture models), especially in the context of pandemics when robustness and comparability of IAR estimates are most needed for informing situational awareness and risk assessment. The same principles are broadly applicable for seroprevalence studies of other infectious disease outbreaks.

In an emerging influenza pandemic, estimating severity (the probability of a severe outcome, such as hospitalization, if infected) is a public health priority. As many influenza infections are subclinical, sero-surveillance is needed to allow reliable real-time estimates of infection attack rate (IAR) and severity.We tested 14,766 sera collected during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong using viral microneutralization. We estimated IAR and infection-hospitalization probability (IHP) from the serial cross-sectional serologic data and hospitalization data. Had our serologic data been available weekly in real time, we would have obtained reliable IHP estimates 1 wk after, 1-2 wk before, and 3 wk after epidemic peak for individuals aged 5-14 y, 15-29 y, and 30-59 y. The ratio of IAR to pre-existing seroprevalence, which decreased with age, was a major determinant for the timeliness of reliable estimates. If we began sero-surveillance 3 wk after community transmission was confirmed, with 150, 350, and 500 specimens per week for individuals aged 5-14 y, 15-19 y, and 20-29 y, respectively, we would have obtained reliable IHP estimates for these age groups 4 wk before the peak. For 30-59 y olds, even 800 specimens per week would not have generated reliable estimates until the peak because the ratio of IAR to pre-existing seroprevalence for this age group was low. The performance of serial cross-sectional sero-surveillance substantially deteriorates if test specificity is not near 100% or pre-existing seroprevalence is not near zero. These potential limitations could be mitigated by choosing a higher titer cutoff for seropositivity. If the epidemic doubling time is longer than 6 d, then serial cross-sectional sero-surveillance with 300 specimens per week would yield reliable estimates when IAR reaches around 6%-10%.Serial cross-sectional serologic data together with clinical surveillance data can allow reliable real-time estimates of IAR and severity in an emerging pandemic. Sero-surveillance for pandemics should be considered.

Background: In an emerging influenza pandemic, estimating severity (the probability of a severe outcome, such as hospitalization, if infected) is a public health priority. As many influenza infections are subclinical, sero-surveillance is needed to allow reliable real-time estimates of infection attack rate (IAR) and severity. Methods and Findings: We tested 14,766 sera collected during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong using viral microneutralization. We estimated IAR and infection-hospitalization probability (IHP) from the serial cross-sectional serologic data and hospitalization data. Had our serologic data been available weekly in real time, we would have obtained reliable IHP estimates 1 wk after, 1-2 wk before, and 3 wk after epidemic peak for individuals aged 5-14 y, 15-29 y, and 30-59 y. The ratio of IAR to pre-existing seroprevalence, which decreased with age, was a major determinant for the timeliness of reliable estimates. If we began sero-surveillance 3 wk after community transmission was confirmed, with 150, 350, and 500 specimens per week for individuals aged 5-14 y, 15-19 y, and 20-29 y, respectively, we would have obtained reliable IHP estimates for these age groups 4 wk before the peak. For 30-59 y olds, even 800 specimens per week would not have generated reliable estimates until the peak because the ratio of IAR to pre-existing seroprevalence for this age group was low. The performance of serial cross-sectional sero-surveillance substantially deteriorates if test specificity is not near 100% or pre-existing seroprevalence is not near zero. These potential limitations could be mitigated by choosing a higher titer cutoff for seropositivity. If the epidemic doubling time is longer than 6 d, then serial cross-sectional serosurveillance with 300 specimens per week would yield reliable estimates when IAR reaches around 6%-10%. Conclusions: Serial cross-sectional serologic data together with clinical surveillance data can allow reliable real-time estimates of IAR and severity in an emerging pandemic. Sero-surveillance for pandemics should be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Studies of the transmissibility of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in occult hepatitis B (OHB) through blood transfusion are scarce. We aimed to determine the transmissibility of HBV in blood donors with OHB through transfusion in animal and human studies. Methods. Among 217,595 blood donors, 67 donors with OHB were identified. Four chimeric mice populated with human hepatocytes were inoculated with 2 donor serum samples. Serial serum and liver HBV DNA levels were measured. Forty-nine recipients of blood transfusions traced from 10 donors with OHB (9 of whom were positive for antibody to hepatitis B surface antigen [anti-HBs]) were tested for HBV infection. Homology and phylogenetic analyses between the HBV genomic sequences of donors and recipients were performed. Results. Serum HBV DNA was detectable (104 copies/mL) in 1 mouse at weeks 5 and 7 after inoculation. Total HBV DNA and HBV replication template (covalently closed circular DNA) and hepatitis B core antigen were detected in the mouse liver. After transfusion, 45 recipients (91.8%) had no HBV infection (ie, they tested negative for hepatitis B surface antigen and HBV DNA). Four tested positive for HBV DNA. In 3 recipients, 83%-86% homology and distant phylogenetic relatedness with their donor HBV excluded transmission through transfusion. The remaining recipient HBV had 95% sequence homology with her donor HBV, compatible with acquisition of HBV infection from the transfusion. High anti-HBs levels in 7 other recipients suggested recent transfusion-related HBV immune response. Conclusions. OHB donor blood infectivity was shown in our animal and human studies. However, the risk of HBV transmission in humans was low, especially from blood products obtained from donors with OHB who were anti-HBs positive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Serial cross-sectional data on antibody levels to the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus from a population can be used to estimate the infection attack rates and immunity against future infection in the community. Methods. From April through December 2009, we obtained 12,217 serum specimens from blood donors (aged 16-59 years), 2520 specimens from hospital outpatients (aged 5-59 years), and 917 specimens from subjects involved in a community pediatric cohort study (aged 5-14 years).We estimated infection attack rates by comparing the proportions of specimens with antibody titers ⩾1:40 by viral microneutralization before and after the first wave of the pandemic. Estimates were validated using paired serum samples from 324 individuals that spanned the first wave. Combining these estimates with epidemiologic surveillance data, we calculated the proportion of infections that led to hospitalization, admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), and death. Results. We found that 3.3% and 14% of persons aged 5-59 years had antibody titers ⩾1:40 before and after the first wave, respectively. The overall attack rate was 10.7%, with age stratification as follows: 43.4% in persons aged 5-14 years, 15.8% in persons aged 15-19 years, 11.8% in persons aged 20-29 years, and 4%-4.6% in persons aged 30-59 years. Case-hospitalization rates were 0.47%-0.87% among persons aged 5-59 years. Case-ICU rates were 7.9 cases per 100,000 infections in persons aged 5-14 years and 75 cases per 100,000 infections in persons aged 50-59 years, respectively. Case-fatality rates were 0.4 cases per 100,000 infections in persons aged 5-14 years and 26.5 cases per 100,000 infections in persons aged 50-59 years, respectively. Conclusions. Almost half of all school-aged children in Hong Kong were infected during the first wave. Compared with school children aged 5-14 years, older adults aged 50-59 years had 9.5 and 66 times higher risks of ICU admission and death if infected, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and aims The aim of the present study was to determine the population prevalence of occult hepatitis B (OHB) infection and its clinical profile in a highly endemic area of chronic hepatitis B virus disease. Methods OHB was first identified by individual sample testing for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) followed by nucleic acid testing (NAT) and vice versa for 3044 (cohort 1, stored sera from donation within 1 year) and 9990 (cohort 2, prospective study) blood donors, respectively. OHB was confirmed meticulously by ≥2 out of 3 tests with detectable hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA using a sensitive standardised assay. Detailed serology and viral load in the serum and liver were studied. Results The prevalence of OHB was 0.13% (4/3044) and 0.11% (11/9967) for cohort 1 and 2, respectively. In cohort 2, 10 out of 11 OHB samples were positive for anti-HBc (hepatitis B core antigen) antibody (all were immunoglobulin G). Seven had detectable anti-HBs. The serum HBV DNA levels were extremely low (highest 14.1 IU/ml). Of the six donors who underwent liver biopsies, all had normal liver biochemistry, extremely low liver HBV DNA (highest 6.21 copies/cell) and nearly normal liver histology. For those with viral sequence generation, none had the common HBsAg mutant G145R. Conclusions The prevalence of OHB in a highly endemic area of chronic HBV was very low, thus implying a low impact on transfusion services. To implement universal screening, the high cost of NAT should be taken into account. OHB blood donors had very low HBV replication, and normal liver biochemistry and histology, conferring a favourable prognosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Host genetic factors are important determinants in tuberculosis (TB). The SLC11A1 (or NRAMP1) gene has been studied extensively for genetic association with TB, but with inconsistent findings. In addition, no study has yet looked into the effect of sex and age on the relationship between SLC11A1 polymorphisms and TB. Methods: A case-control study was conducted. In total, 278 pulmonary TB patients and 282 sex- and agematched controls without TB were recruited. All subjects were ethnic Chinese. On the basis of linkage disequilibrium pattern, three genetic markers from SLC11A1 and one from the nearby IL8RB locus were selected and examined for association with TB susceptibility. These markers were genotyped using single strand conformation polymorphism analysis or fragment analysis of amplified products. Results: Statistically significant differences in allele (P = 0.0165, OR = 1.51) and genotype (P = 0.0163, OR = 1.59) frequencies of the linked markers SLC6a/b (classically called D543N and 3'UTR) of the SLC11A1 locus were found between patients and controls. With stratification by sex, positive associations were identified in the female group for both allele (P = 0.0049, OR = 2.54) and genotype (P =0.0075, OR = 2.74) frequencies. With stratification by age, positive associations were demonstrated in the young age group (age ⩽65 years) for both allele (P = 0.0047, OR = 2.52) and genotype (P = 0.0031, OR = 2.92) frequencies. All positive findings remained significant even after correction for multiple comparisons. No significant differences were noted in either the male group or the older age group. No significant differences were found for the other markers (one SLC11A1 marker and one IL8RB marker) either. Conclusion: This study confirmed the association between SLC11A1 and TB susceptibility and demonstrated for the first time that the association was restricted to females and the young age group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzes TT virus infection in blood donors in Hong Kong, China. Association of the TT virus with specific diseases; Identified genotypes; Screening of blood donors.

A letter to the editor is presented in response to the published study entitled "Pharmacogenetics of Plasma Efavirenz Exposure After Treatment Discontinuation: An Adult AIDS Clinical Trials Group Study," by H. J. Ribaudo and colleagues in the 2006 issue.

BackgroundThe underlying mechanism of HBsAg-negative hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is notoriously difficult to elucidate because of the extremely low DNA levels which define the condition. We used a highly efficient amplification method to overcome this obstacle and achieved our aim which was to identify specific mutations or sequence variations associated with this entity.MethodsA total of 185 sera and 60 liver biopsies from HBsAg-negative, HBV DNA-positive subjects or known chronic hepatitis B (CHB) subjects with HBsAg seroclearance were amplified by rolling circle amplification followed by full-length HBV genome sequencing. Eleven HBsAg-positive CHB subjects were included as controls. The effects of pivotal mutations identified on regulatory regions on promoter activities were analyzed.Results22 and 11 full-length HBV genomes were amplified from HBsAg-negative and control subjects respectively. HBV genotype C was the dominant strain. A higher mutation frequency was observed in HBsAg-negative subjects than controls, irrespective of genotype. The nucleotide diversity over the entire HBV genome was significantly higher in HBsAg-negative subjects compared with controls (p = 0.008) and compared with 49 reference sequences from CHB patients (p = 0.025). In addition, HBsAg-negative subjects had significantly higher amino acid substitutions in the four viral genes than controls (all pConclusionsThese data suggest an accumulation of multiple mutations constraining viral transcriptional activities contribute to HBsAg-negativity in HBV infection.

Background and aimsThe association between HLA-DP single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection varies between different populations. We aimed to study the association between HLA-DP SNPs and HBV infection and disease activity in the Chinese population of Hong Kong.MethodsWe genotyped SNPs rs3077 (near HLA-DPA1) and rs9277378 and rs3128917 (both near HLA-DPB1) in 500 HBV carriers (hepatitis B surface antigen [HBsAg]-positive), 245 non-HBV infected controls (HBsAg- and antibody to hepatitis B core protein [anti-HBc]-negative), and 259 subjects with natural HBV clearance (HBsAg-negative, anti-HBc-positive). Inactive HBV carriers state was defined by HBV DNA levels ResultsCompared to the non-HBV infected subjects, the HBV carriers had a significantly lower frequency of the rs3077 T allele (p = 0.0040), rs9277378 A allele (p = 0.0068) and a trend for lower frequency of rs3128917 T allele (p = 0.054). These alleles were associated with an increased chance of HBV clearance (rs3077: OR = 1.41, p = 0.0083; rs9277378: OR = 1.61, p = 0.00011; rs3128917: OR = 1.54, p = 0.00017). Significant associations between HLA-DP genotypes and HBV clearance were also found under different genetic models. Haplotype TAT was associated with an increased chance of HBV clearance (OR = 1.64, p = 0.0013). No association was found between these SNPs and HBV disease activity.ConclusionHLA-DP SNPs rs3077, rs9277378 and rs3128917 were associated with chronicity of HBV disease in the Chinese. Further studies are required to determine whether these SNPs influence the disease endemicity in different ethnic populations.