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Residential electricity consumption in China experienced a boom in recent years and may increase faster in the future. To reduce residential electricity consumption, China has adopted Increasing Block Tariffs (IBT) since 2012. The previous work mainly used regional level aggregated data to assess the impact. Few studies using household level data did not overcome the endogeneity problem. Based on the instrumental variable method, this paper found that commonly used OLS estimation gave unreasonable results and instrumental variable method is appropriate and effective in this study. The IBT was found to significantly reduce residential electricity consumption in high-income group, which achieving the initial goal of China's IBT. Lastly, this paper proposed to generate more publicity of the IBT policy and increase the electricity price of second or third tier.

The exposure of viticulture to climate change and extreme weather conditions makes the winemaking sector particularly vulnerable, being one of its major challenges in the current century. While grapevine is considered a highly tolerant crop to several abiotic stresses, Mediterranean areas are frequently affected by adverse environmental factors, namely water scarcity, heat and high irradiance, and are especially vulnerable to climate change. Due to the high socio-economic value of this sector in Europe, the study of adaptation strategies to mitigate the negative climate change impacts are of main importance for its sustainability and competitiveness. Adaptation strategies include all the set of actions and processes that can be performed in response to climate change. It is crucial to improve agronomic strategies to offset the loss of productivity and likely changes in production and fruit quality. It is important to look for new insights concerning response mechanisms to these stresses to advance with more effective and precise measures. These measures should be adjusted to local terroirs and regional climate change projections for the sustainable development of the winemaking sector. This review describes the direct climate change impacts (on phenology, physiology, yield and berry quality), risks, and uncertainties for Mediterranean viticulture, as well as a set of canopy, soil and water management practices that winegrowers can use to adapt their vines to warmer and drier conditions.

A noninvasive method for evaluating renal blood flow (RBF) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) may have clinical value in disease staging, management, and prognostication.To evaluate effectiveness of three-dimensional pseudocontinuous arterial spin labeling (pCASL) and pulsed arterial spin labeling (PASL) in assessment of cortex and outer medulla (cortex/OM) RBF in CKD patients and healthy volunteers (HVs).Prospective, in a single institution.A total of 48 CKD patients (stage 1, 2, 3, and 4-5: N = 11, 12, 13, and 12, respectively) and 18 HVs FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE: 3 T, pCASL, and PASL with a three-dimensional hybrid gradient echo/spin echo sequence.Quality of RBF images derived from pCASL and PASL were evaluated and RBF in cortex/OM measured. Clinical and laboratory data were recorded.Image quality differences between pCASL and PASL were evaluated with Wilcoxon signed-rank test. For both methods, analysis of variance, followed by Fisher's LSD-t test, was used to determine whether RBF differed between CKD stages and HVs. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to assess strength of relationships between cortex/OM RBF and data from clinical and laboratory tests.Image quality differences were significantly higher in pCASL than PASL in both patients and HVs (both P 0.05). For pCASL, cortex/OM RBF of patients were significantly lower than those of HVs (P 0.05). Cortex/OM RBF were higher in S1 and S2 patients than those in S3 and S4-5 (P 0.05). For PASL, only RBF in cortex of S1 and S2 patients were significantly higher than those of S4-5 (P 0.05). Good correlations between pCASL RBF and estimated glomerular filtration (eGFR) were found in cortex/OM of patients (rho = 0.796 and 0.798, respectively, both P 0.05), higher than those between PASL RBF and eGFR (rho = 0.430 and 0.374, respectively, both P 0.05).Three-dimensional pCASL may potentially be a noninvasive technique to assess renal perfusion in CKD patients in different stages.1 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 2.

Most European vineyards are managed under rainfed conditions, where seasonal water deficit has become increasingly important. The flowering-veraison phenophase represents an important period for vine response to water stress, which is seldomly thoroughly evaluated. Therefore, we aim to quantify the flowering-veraison water stress levels using Crop Water Stress Indicator (CWSI) over 1986–2015 for important European wine regions and to assess the respective potential Yield Lose Rate (YLR). Additionally, we also investigate whether an advanced flowering-veraison phase may help to alleviate the water stress with improved yield. A process-based grapevine model STICS is employed, which has been extensively calibrated for flowering and veraison stages using observed data at 38 locations with 10 different grapevine varieties. Subsequently, the model is being implemented at the regional level, considering site-specific calibration results and gridded climate and soil datasets. The findings suggest wine regions with stronger flowering-veraison CWSI tend to have higher potential YLR. However, contrasting patterns are found between wine regions in France-Germany-Luxembourg and Italy-Portugal-Spain. The former tends to have slight-to-moderate drought conditions (CWSI0.5) and substantial YLR (>40%). Wine regions prone to a high drought risk (CWSI>0.75) are also identified, which are concentrated in southern Mediterranean Europe. An advanced flowering-veraison phase may have benefited from cooler temperatures and a higher fraction of spring precipitation in wine regions of Italy-Portugal-Spain, resulting in alleviated CWSI and moderate reductions of YLR. For those of France-Germany-Luxembourg, this can have reduced flowering-veraison precipitation, but prevalent alleviations of YLR are also found, possibly because of shifted phase towards a cooler growing season with reduced evaporative demands. Overall, such a retrospective analysis might provide new insights towards better management of seasonal water deficit for conventionally vulnerable Mediterranean wine regions, but also relatively cooler and wetter Central European regions. Acknowledgements: This study was funded by the Clim4Vitis project—“Climate change impact mitigation for European viticulture: knowledge transfer for an integrated approach”, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, under grant agreement no. 810176; it was also supported by FCT—Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033/2020.

Reliable estimations of parameter values and associated uncertainties are crucial for crop model applications in agro-environmental research. However, estimating many parameters simultaneously for different types of response variables is difficult. This becomes more complicated for grapevines with different phenotypes between varieties and training systems. Our study aims to evaluate how a standard least square approach can be used to calibrate a complex grapevine model for simulating both the phenology (flowering and harvest date) and yield of four different variety–training systems in the Douro Demarcated Region, northern Portugal. An objective function is defined to search for the best-fit parameters that result in the minimum value of the unweighted sum of the normalized Root Mean Squared Error (nRMSE) of the studied variables. Parameter uncertainties are estimated as how a given parameter value can determine the total prediction variability caused by variations in the other parameter combinations. The results indicate that the best-estimated parameters show a satisfactory predictive performance, with a mean bias of −2 to 4 days for phenology and −232 to 159 kg/ha for yield. The corresponding variance in the observed data was generally well reproduced, except for one occasion. These parameters are a good trade-off to achieve results close to the best possible fit of each response variable. No parameter combinations can achieve minimum errors simultaneously for phenology and yield, where the best fit to one variable can lead to a poor fit to another. The proposed parameter uncertainty analysis is particularly useful to select the best-fit parameter values when several choices with equal performance occur. A global sensitivity analysis is applied where the fruit-setting parameters are identified as key determinants for yield simulations. Overall, the approach (including uncertainty analysis) is relatively simple and straightforward without specific pre-conditions (e.g., model continuity), which can be easily applied for other models and crops. However, a challenge has been identified, which is associated with the appropriate assumption of the model errors, where a combination of various calibration approaches might be essential to have a more robust parameter estimation.

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive methods for the early diagnosis and staging of hepatic fibrosis are needed. The present study aimed to investigate the alteration of magnetic susceptibility in the liver of patients with various fibrosis stages and to evaluate the feasibility of using susceptibility to stage hepatic fibrosis. METHODS: A total of 30 consecutive patients with chronic liver diseases (CLDs) underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and liver biopsy evaluation of hepatic fibrosis, necroinflammatory activity, iron load, and steatosis. Quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM), R2* and proton density fat fraction (PDFF) images were postprocessed from the same gradient-echo data for quantitative tissue characterization using region of interest (ROI) analysis. The differences for MRI measurements between cohorts of non-significant (Ishak-F

Der Weinbau ist einer Zunahme von Extremwetterereignissen und dem Klimawandel ausgesetzt und reagiert in besonderen Masse hierauf. Aufgrund der hohen soziookonomischen Bedeutung des Weinbausektors in Europa ist die Entwicklung von geeigneten Anpassungsstrategien zur Abschwachung der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels von groster Bedeutung fur seine kunftige Nachhaltigkeit und Wettbewerbsfahigkeit. In diesem Artikel sollen als Output des Forschungsprojektes Clim4Vitis (https://clim4vitis.eu/) einige mogliche kurzfristigen Anpassungsstrategien (Abbildung 1) zusammengefasst werden. Langzeitanpassungsstrategien werden in einem gesonderten Technical Review beschrieben.

In Europe, most of vineyards are managed under rainfed conditions, where water deficit has become increasingly an issue. The flowering-veraison phenophase represents an important period for vine response to water stress, which is known to depend on variety characteristics, soil and climate conditions. In this paper, we have carried out a retrospective analysis for important European wine regions over 1986-2015, with objectives to assess the mean Crop Water Stress Indicator (CWSI) during flowering-veraison phase, and potential Yield Lose Rate (YLR) due to seasonal cumulative water stress. Moreover, we also investigate if advanced flowering-veraison phase can lead to alleviated CWSI under recent-past conditions, thus contributing to reduced YLR. A process-based grapevine model is employed, which has been extensively calibrated for simulating both flowering and veraison stages using location-specific observations representing 10 different varieties. Subsequently, grid-based modelling is implemented with gridded climate and soil datasets and calibrated phenology parameters. The findings suggest wine regions with higher mean CWSI of flowering-veraison phase tend to have higher potential YLR. However, contrasting patterns are found between wine regions in France-Germany-Luxembourg and Italy Portugal-Spain. The former tends to have slight-to-moderate drought conditions (CWSI0.5) and substantial YLR (>40%). Wine regions prone to a high drought risk (CWSI>0.75) are also identified, which are concentrated in southern Mediterranean Europe. Advanced flowering-veraison phase over 1986-2015, could have benefited from more spring precipitation and cooler temperatures for wine regions of Italy-Portugal-Spain, leading to reduced mean CWSI and YLR. For those of France-Germany-Luxembourg, this can have reduced flowering-veraison precipitation, but prevalent reductions of YLR are also found, possibly due to shifted phase towards a cooler growing-season with reduced evaporative demands. Our study demonstrates flowering-verasion water deficit is critical for potential yield, which can have different impacts between Central and Southern European wine regions. This phase can be advanced under a warmer climate, thus having important implications for European rainfed vineyards. The overall outcome may provide new insights for appropriate viticultural management of seasonal water deficits under climate change. This study was funded by Clim4Vitis project-"Climate change impact mitigation for European viticulture: knowledge transfer for an integrated approach", funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, under grant agreement no. 810176; it was also supported by FCT-Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033/2020. We acknowledge the data provisions from members of the PEP725 project, from IPHEN project and from the Consejo Regulador of Ribera de Duero and Rioja DOCa.

Climate change projections for Portugal showed warming and drying trends, representing a substantial threat for the sustainability of forage production in perennial grassland. The objective of the present study was to assess climate change impacts on seasonal dry matter yield (DMY) in three locations (North-west-, Central-inner and South-Portugal) with different climatic conditions, for two grassland production systems deviating in growing season length, either early cuts in spring (ES) or late cuts in summer (LS). Impacts were estimated using the STICS (Simulateur mulTIdisciplinaire pour les Cultures Standard) crop model, by comparing a historical baseline period (1985–2006) with simulated projections over future periods (2021–2080). For this purpose, the STICS crop model was driven by high-resolution climate data from a coupled Global Climate Model/Regional Climate Model chain. As a result, we obtained that, during the baseline period, DMY of LS was consistently much higher than that of ES in all three locations. For LS, significant reductions in mean DMY were forecasted during 2061–2080, ranging from mild (–13%) in the north to severe (–31%) in the south of Portugal. In contrast, seasonal DMY was largely maintained for ES among sites until 2080, benefiting from low water deficits, the expected atmospheric CO2 rise and the forecasted temperature increase during cool season. Thus, the yield gap was projected to gradually decrease between the two regimes, in which mean DMY for ES was foreseen to exceed that of LS over 2061–2080 in the southern site. Moreover, ES was projected to have very low exposure to extreme heat and severe water stresses. Conversely, LS, subjected to high summer water deficit and irrigation needs, was projected to experience increased summertime water stress (9–11%) and drastically increased heat stress (33–57%) in 2061–2080, with more pronounced heat stress occurring in the south. Frequency of occurrence of extreme heat stress was projected to gradually increase in summer over successive study periods, with a concomitant increased intensity of DMY response to inter-annual variability of heat stress during 2061–2080. Heat stress tended to be more important than water stress under the prescribed irrigation strategy for LS, potentially being the main limiting factor for summertime DMY production under climate change scenario.

Maize is an important crop for the Portuguese agricultural sector. Future climate change, with warmer and dryer conditions in this Mediterranean environment, will challenge this high-water demanding crop. The present study aims at assessing the response of maize yield, growth cycle, seasonal water input and daily water productivity (DWP) to climate change, and analyse water-yield relations. For this purpose, two process-based crop models are used (STICS and AquaCrop) and were validated in simulating irrigated maize yields in Central Portugal (Ribatejo) by using regional statistics (1986–2005). Both models show an overall agreement in their outputs. The 2-model mean outputs are considered under future climate projections (2021–2080; RCP4.5 and 8.5), using the global/regional climate model chain M-MPI-ESM-LR/SMHI-RCA4. The most significant reductions on maize yield (−17%), growth cycle (−12%) and DWP (−19%) are observed for 2061–2080 under RCP8.5, with a noticeable decrease of seasonal water input (−9%) during 2041–2060. Decreased DWP is largely due to significant yield reduction, with limited benefit of atmospheric CO2 enrichment. A water-yield relation analysis highlights that an increase of 2–14% in irrigation for future scenarios (compared to 1986–2005) might be a suitable strategy to mitigate yield reduction, despite substantially lower DWP (down to −23%). These findings demonstrate that our model approach can be used as a decision support tool by Portuguese farmers, particularly in optimizing maize production under changing climates.

Projected warming and drying trends over the Mediterranean region represent a substantial threat for wheat production. The present study assesses winter wheat yield response to potential climate change and estimates the quantitative effectiveness of using early flowering cultivars and early sowing dates as adaptation options for the major wheat production region of Portugal. A crop model (STICS) is used for this purpose, which is calibrated for yield simulations before projecting future yields. Climate projections over 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are retrieved from bias-adjusted datasets, generated by a ten-member climate model ensemble. Projected intensification of water deficits and more frequent high-temperature events during late spring (April–June), coinciding with the sensitive grain filling stage, primarily result in continuous mean yield losses (relative to 1981–2010) by − 14% (both scenarios) during 2021–2050 and by − 17% (RCP4.5) or − 27% (RCP8.5) during 2051–2080, also accompanied by increased yield variabilities. Of evaluated adaptation options at various levels, using earlier flowering cultivars reveals higher yield gains (26–38%) than that of early sowings (6–10%), which are able to reverse the yield reductions. The adopted early flowering cultivars successfully advance the anthesis onset and grain filling period, which reduces or avoids the risks of exposure to enhanced drought and heat stresses in late spring. In contrast, winter warming during early sowing window could affect vernalization fulfillment by slowing effective chilling accumulation, thus increasing the pre-anthesis growth length with limited effects on advancing reproductive stage. Crop yield projections and explored adaptation options are essential to assess food security prospects (availability and stability) of dry Mediterranean areas, providing crucial insights for appropriate policymaking.

Wheat yield potentials under rainfed Mediterranean conditions have been long limited by late-in-season occurrence of enhanced water deficits and high temperatures, coinciding with sensitive reproductive stages. Present study aims to quantify and separate the impacts of two main abiotic stresses (drought & heat) on potentially attainable wheat yields, in a typical Mediterranean environment of southern Portugal (Alentejo) over 1986—2015. We also evaluate how possible adaptation options could mitigate potential yield losses (reduce the gap between actual and potential yield). Previously calibrated STICS soil-crop model is used for these purposes, which has been satisfactorily evaluated herein for yield simulations using additional field data before running at regional level. By coupling with high-resolution gridded soil and climate datasets, STICS simulations reliably reproduce the inter-annual variability of 30-year regional yield statistics, together with reasonable estimations of experimental potential yields. Therefore, the model is useful to explore the source of yield gap in the region. The quantified impacts, though with some uncertainties, identify the prolonged terminal drought stress as the major cause of yield gap, causing 40–70% mean potential yield losses. In contrast, a short-duration of crop heat stress (≥38 °C) during late grain-filling phase only results in small-to-moderate reductions (up to 20%). Supplemental Irrigation (SI) during reproductive stages provides good adaptive gains to recover potential yield losses by 15–30%, while the proposed early-flowering cultivar is more useful in escaping the terminal heat stress (5–15% adaptive gains) than avoiding prolonged drought stress. In addition, advancing sowing date generally favours wheat production with a robust spatial-temporal pattern. Therefore, combined options based on application of SI, using balanced early-flowering cultivar and early sowing date, may contribute to considerably reduce local yield gap, where current yields can account for 60% of potential yields (26–32% without adaptation). Regional impact assessment and adaptation modelling studies are essential to support agricultural policy development under climate change and variability. The recommended combined adaptation may also represent a promising adaptation strategy for rainfed wheat cropping system in other regions with similar Mediterranean conditions. However, the existing spatial-temporal variability of adaptation response highlights the need to address adaptation strategies at a more detailed local scale with better flexible design.

1 MW Dahan solar thermal power tower plant is modeled from mathematical models for all of the working conditions using the modular modeling method. The dynamic and static characteristics of the power plant are analyzed based on these models. Response curves of the system state parameters are given for different solar irradiance disturbances. Conclusions in this paper are good references for the design of solar thermal power tower plant.

Amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) and methylation-sensitive amplification polymorphism (MSAP) analysis were used to investigate the genome of two sibling tobacco cultivars, Yunyan85 and Yunyan87, their parent K326 and the other tobacco cultivar NC89. AFLP analysis indicated that, the genome primary structure variations were not obviously detected among Yunyan85 and Yunyan87 and K326. However, the methylation extent had different alteration between the sibling tobacco cultivars relative to their parent; it rose to 42.97 and 36.55% in Yunyan85 and Yunyan87, respectively. Both the full and semi-methylation modifications on the ‘CCGG/GGCC’ site were significantly increased in Yunyan85 and Yunyan87, however, the full-methylation modification on the ‘CCGG/GGCC’ site in Yunyan85 was significantly higher than the one in Yunyan87. Among the polymorphic methylated sites, most of them (53.70%) were hypermethylation sites, 35 (16.20%) sites were demethylation modification and 62 (28.70%) sites were uncertain methylation modification. The sequences involved in methylation alteration mainly included promoter regions. The results in this study have provided a better understanding of gene expression phenotype.Key words: Nicotiana tabacum, methylation, amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP), methylationsensitive amplification polymorphism (MSAP).

The specific consumption theory is applied to model and analyze the main equipment and steam flow of large coal-fired power unit at different operating loads, based on the First and Second Thermodynamic Laws. A 600MW subcritical coal-fired power generating unit is selected as the research object to analyze the energy consumption distribution at different loads, listing the main equipment of higher energy consumption rates. The results indicate the energy-saving potential of the effects of influencing the energy consumption rates. The research also puts forward the directions of optimizing and reforming to reduce energy consumption.