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Effective budget allocation is crucial for optimizing the performance of digital advertising campaigns. However, the development of practical budget allocation algorithms remain limited, primarily due to the lack of public datasets and comprehensive simulation environments capable of verifying the intricacies of real-world advertising. While multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms have been extensively studied, their efficacy diminishes in non-stationary environments where quick adaptation to changing market dynamics is essential. In this paper, we advance the field of budget allocation in digital advertising by introducing three key contributions. First, we develop a simulation environment designed to mimic multichannel advertising campaigns over extended time horizons, incorporating logged real-world data. Second, we propose an enhanced combinatorial bandit budget allocation strategy that leverages a saturating mean function and a targeted exploration mechanism with change-point detection. This approach dynamically adapts to changing market conditions, improving allocation efficiency by filtering target regions based on domain knowledge. Finally, we present both theoretical analysis and empirical results, demonstrating that our method consistently outperforms baseline strategies, achieving higher rewards and lower regret across multiple real-world campaigns.

The reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) are attracting increasing attention. In this work, we focus on causal reasoning and address the task of establishing causal relationships based on correlation information, a highly challenging problem on which several LLMs have shown poor performance. We introduce a prompting strategy for this problem that breaks the original task into fixed subquestions, with each subquestion corresponding to one step of a formal causal discovery algorithm, the PC algorithm. The proposed prompting strategy, PC-SubQ, guides the LLM to follow these algorithmic steps, by sequentially prompting it with one subquestion at a time, augmenting the next subquestion's prompt with the answer to the previous one(s). We evaluate our approach on an existing causal benchmark, Corr2Cause: our experiments indicate a performance improvement across five LLMs when comparing PC-SubQ to baseline prompting strategies. Results are robust to causal query perturbations, when modifying the variable names or paraphrasing the expressions.

Online advertising has become one of the most successful business models of the internet era. Impression opportunities are typically allocated through real-time auctions, where advertisers bid to secure advertisement slots. Deciding the best bid for an impression opportunity is challenging, due to the stochastic nature of user behavior and the variability of advertisement traffic over time. In this work, we propose a framework for training auto-bidding agents in multi-slot second-price auctions to maximize acquisitions (e.g., clicks, conversions) while adhering to budget and cost-per-acquisition (CPA) constraints. We exploit the insight that, after an advertisement campaign concludes, determining the optimal bids for each impression opportunity can be framed as a multiple-choice knapsack problem (MCKP) with a nonlinear objective. We propose an "oracle" algorithm that identifies a near-optimal combination of impression opportunities and advertisement slots, considering both past and future advertisement traffic data. This oracle solution serves as a training target for a student network which bids having access only to real-time information, a method we term Oracle Imitation Learning (OIL). Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that OIL achieves superior performance compared to both online and offline reinforcement learning algorithms, offering improved sample efficiency. Notably, OIL shifts the complexity of training auto-bidding agents from crafting sophisticated learning algorithms to solving a nonlinear constrained optimization problem efficiently.

AI assistants are being increasingly used by students enrolled in higher education institutions. While these tools provide opportunities for improved teaching and education, they also pose significant challenges for assessment and learning outcomes. We conceptualize these challenges through the lens of vulnerability, the potential for university assessments and learning outcomes to be impacted by student use of generative AI. We investigate the potential scale of this vulnerability by measuring the degree to which AI assistants can complete assessment questions in standard university-level STEM courses. Specifically, we compile a novel dataset of textual assessment questions from 50 courses at EPFL and evaluate whether two AI assistants, GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 can adequately answer these questions. We use eight prompting strategies to produce responses and find that GPT-4 answers an average of 65.8% of questions correctly, and can even produce the correct answer across at least one prompting strategy for 85.1% of questions. When grouping courses in our dataset by degree program, these systems already pass non-project assessments of large numbers of core courses in various degree programs, posing risks to higher education accreditation that will be amplified as these models improve. Our results call for revising program-level assessment design in higher education in light of advances in generative AI., Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures

Failures of fairness or robustness in machine learning predictive settings can be due to undesired dependencies between covariates, outcomes and auxiliary factors of variation. A common strategy to mitigate these failures is data balancing, which attempts to remove those undesired dependencies. In this work, we define conditions on the training distribution for data balancing to lead to fair or robust models. Our results display that, in many cases, the balanced distribution does not correspond to selectively removing the undesired dependencies in a causal graph of the task, leading to multiple failure modes and even interference with other mitigation techniques such as regularization. Overall, our results highlight the importance of taking the causal graph into account before performing data balancing.

The sample efficiency of Bayesian optimization algorithms depends on carefully crafted acquisition functions (AFs) guiding the sequential collection of function evaluations. The best-performing AF can vary significantly across optimization problems, often requiring ad-hoc and problem-specific choices. This work tackles the challenge of designing novel AFs that perform well across a variety of experimental settings. Based on FunSearch, a recent work using Large Language Models (LLMs) for discovery in mathematical sciences, we propose FunBO, an LLM-based method that can be used to learn new AFs written in computer code by leveraging access to a limited number of evaluations for a set of objective functions. We provide the analytic expression of all discovered AFs and evaluate them on various global optimization benchmarks and hyperparameter optimization tasks. We show how FunBO identifies AFs that generalize well in and out of the training distribution of functions, thus outperforming established general-purpose AFs and achieving competitive performance against AFs that are customized to specific function types and are learned via transfer-learning algorithms.

We explore algorithms to select actions in the causal bandit setting where the learner can choose to intervene on a set of random variables related by a causal graph, and the learner sequentially chooses interventions and observes a sample from the interventional distribution. The learner's goal is to quickly find the intervention, among all interventions on observable variables, that maximizes the expectation of an outcome variable. We depart from previous literature by assuming no knowledge of the causal graph except that latent confounders between the outcome and its ancestors are not present. We first show that the unknown graph problem can be exponentially hard in the parents of the outcome. To remedy this, we adopt an additional additive assumption on the outcome which allows us to solve the problem by casting it as an additive combinatorial linear bandit problem with full-bandit feedback. We propose a novel action-elimination algorithm for this setting, show how to apply this algorithm to the causal bandit problem, provide sample complexity bounds, and empirically validate our findings on a suite of randomly generated causal models, effectively showing that one does not need to explicitly learn the parents of the outcome to identify the best intervention.

We propose functional causal Bayesian optimization (fCBO), a method for finding interventions that optimize a target variable in a known causal graph. fCBO extends the CBO family of methods to enable functional interventions, which set a variable to be a deterministic function of other variables in the graph. fCBO models the unknown objectives with Gaussian processes whose inputs are defined in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, thus allowing to compute distances among vector-valued functions. In turn, this enables to sequentially select functions to explore by maximizing an expected improvement acquisition functional while keeping the typical computational tractability of standard BO settings. We introduce graphical criteria that establish when considering functional interventions allows attaining better target effects, and conditions under which selected interventions are also optimal for conditional target effects. We demonstrate the benefits of the method in a synthetic and in a real-world causal graph.

In Reinforcement Learning, agents learn policies by exploring and interacting with the environment. Due to the curse of dimensionality, learning policies that map high-dimensional sensory input to motor output is particularly challenging. During training, state of the art methods (SAC, PPO, etc.) explore the environment by perturbing the actuation with independent Gaussian noise. While this unstructured exploration has proven successful in numerous tasks, it can be suboptimal for overactuated systems. When multiple actuators, such as motors or muscles, drive behavior, uncorrelated perturbations risk diminishing each other's effect, or modifying the behavior in a task-irrelevant way. While solutions to introduce time correlation across action perturbations exist, introducing correlation across actuators has been largely ignored. Here, we propose LATent TIme-Correlated Exploration (Lattice), a method to inject temporally-correlated noise into the latent state of the policy network, which can be seamlessly integrated with on- and off-policy algorithms. We demonstrate that the noisy actions generated by perturbing the network's activations can be modeled as a multivariate Gaussian distribution with a full covariance matrix. In the PyBullet locomotion tasks, Lattice-SAC achieves state of the art results, and reaches 18% higher reward than unstructured exploration in the Humanoid environment. In the musculoskeletal control environments of MyoSuite, Lattice-PPO achieves higher reward in most reaching and object manipulation tasks, while also finding more energy-efficient policies with reductions of 20-60%. Overall, we demonstrate the effectiveness of structured action noise in time and actuator space for complex motor control tasks. The code is available at: https://github.com/amathislab/lattice., Comment: Code available at https://github.com/amathislab/lattice

We propose constrained causal Bayesian optimization (cCBO), an approach for finding interventions in a known causal graph that optimize a target variable under some constraints. cCBO first reduces the search space by exploiting the graph structure and, if available, an observational dataset; and then solves the restricted optimization problem by modelling target and constraint quantities using Gaussian processes and by sequentially selecting interventions via a constrained expected improvement acquisition function. We propose different surrogate models that enable to integrate observational and interventional data while capturing correlation among effects with increasing levels of sophistication. We evaluate cCBO on artificial and real-world causal graphs showing successful trade off between fast convergence and percentage of feasible interventions.

We present a deep reinforcement learning approach to a classical problem in fluid dynamics, i.e., the reduction of the drag of a bluff body. We cast the problem as a discrete-time control with continuous action space: at each time step, an autonomous agent can set the flow rate of two jets of fluid, positioned at the back of the body. The agent, trained with Proximal Policy Optimization, learns an effective strategy to make the jets interact with the vortexes of the wake, thus reducing the drag. To tackle the computational complexity of the fluid dynamics simulations, which would make the training procedure prohibitively expensive, we train the agent on a coarse discretization of the domain. We provide numerical evidence that a policy trained in this approximate environment still retains good performance when carried over to a denser mesh. Our simulations show a considerable drag reduction with a consequent saving of total power, defined as the sum of the power spent by the control system and of the power of the drag force, amounting to 40% when compared to simulations with the reference bluff body without any jet. Finally, we qualitatively investigate the control policy learnt by the neural network. We can observe that it achieves the drag reduction by learning the frequency of formation of the vortexes and activating the jets accordingly, thus blowing them away off the rear body surface.

Accurately inferring Gene Regulatory Networks (GRNs) is a critical and challenging task in biology. GRNs model the activatory and inhibitory interactions between genes and are inherently causal in nature. To accurately identify GRNs, perturbational data is required. However, most GRN discovery methods only operate on observational data. Recent advances in neural network-based causal discovery methods have significantly improved causal discovery, including handling interventional data, improvements in performance and scalability. However, applying state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal discovery methods in biology poses challenges, such as noisy data and a large number of samples. Thus, adapting the causal discovery methods is necessary to handle these challenges. In this paper, we introduce DiscoGen, a neural network-based GRN discovery method that can denoise gene expression measurements and handle interventional data. We demonstrate that our model outperforms SOTA neural network-based causal discovery methods.

We introduce a causal framework for designing optimal policies that satisfy fairness constraints. We take a pragmatic approach asking what we can do with an action space available to us and only with access to historical data. We propose two different fairness constraints: a moderation breaking constraint which aims at blocking moderation paths from the action and sensitive attribute to the outcome, and by that at reducing disparity in outcome levels as much as the provided action space permits; and an equal benefit constraint which aims at distributing gain from the new and maximized policy equally across sensitive attribute levels, and thus at keeping pre-existing preferential treatment in place or avoiding the introduction of new disparity. We introduce practical methods for implementing the constraints and illustrate their uses on experiments with semi-synthetic models.

Biological and artificial agents need to deal with constant changes in the real world. We study this problem in four classical continuous control environments, augmented with morphological perturbations. Learning to locomote when the length and the thickness of different body parts vary is challenging, as the control policy is required to adapt to the morphology to successfully balance and advance the agent. We show that a control policy based on the proprioceptive state performs poorly with highly variable body configurations, while an (oracle) agent with access to a learned encoding of the perturbation performs significantly better. We introduce DMAP, a biologically-inspired, attention-based policy network architecture. DMAP combines independent proprioceptive processing, a distributed policy with individual controllers for each joint, and an attention mechanism, to dynamically gate sensory information from different body parts to different controllers. Despite not having access to the (hidden) morphology information, DMAP can be trained end-to-end in all the considered environments, overall matching or surpassing the performance of an oracle agent. Thus DMAP, implementing principles from biological motor control, provides a strong inductive bias for learning challenging sensorimotor tasks. Overall, our work corroborates the power of these principles in challenging locomotion tasks.

The fundamental challenge in causal induction is to infer the underlying graph structure given observational and/or interventional data. Most existing causal induction algorithms operate by generating candidate graphs and evaluating them using either score-based methods (including continuous optimization) or independence tests. In our work, we instead treat the inference process as a black box and design a neural network architecture that learns the mapping from both observational and interventional data to graph structures via supervised training on synthetic graphs. The learned model generalizes to new synthetic graphs, is robust to train-test distribution shifts, and achieves state-of-the-art performance on naturalistic graphs for low sample complexity.

Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI) can be investigated by means of non-linear Finite Element Models (FEM), suitable to capture large deflections of structural parts interacting with fluids, and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). High fidelity simulations are obtained using the fine spatial resolution of both the structural and fluid computational grids. A key enabler to have a proper exchange of information between the structural solver and the fluid one is the management of the interface at wetted surfaces where the grids are usually non matching. A class of applications, known also as one-way FSI problems, involves a complex movement of the walls that is known in advance as measured or as computed by FEM, and that has to be imposed at the boundaries during a transient CFD solution. Effective methods for the time marching adaption of the whole computational grid of the CFD model according to the evolving shape of its boundaries are required. A very well established approach consists of a continuum update of the mesh that is regenerated by adding and removing cells to fit the evolution of the moving walls. In this paper, an innovative method based on Radial Basis Functions (RBF) mesh morphing is proposed, allowing the retention of the same mesh topology suitable for a continuum update of the shape. The proposed method is exact at a set of given key configurations and relies on shape blending time interpolation between key frames. The study of the complex motion of a Polymeric-Prosthetic Heart Valve (P-PHV) is presented using the new framework and considering as a reference the established approach based on remeshing., Comment: Article of 21 pages

In addition to reproducing discriminatory relationships in the training data, machine learning systems can also introduce or amplify discriminatory effects. We refer to this as introduced unfairness, and investigate the conditions under which it may arise. To this end, we propose introduced total variation as a measure of introduced unfairness, and establish graphical conditions under which it may be incentivised to occur. These criteria imply that adding the sensitive attribute as a feature removes the incentive for introduced variation under well-behaved loss functions. Additionally, taking a causal perspective, introduced path-specific effects shed light on the issue of when specific paths should be considered fair., Comment: In Proceedings of the AAAI 2022 Conference

Diagnosing and mitigating changes in model fairness under distribution shift is an important component of the safe deployment of machine learning in healthcare settings. Importantly, the success of any mitigation strategy strongly depends on the structure of the shift. Despite this, there has been little discussion of how to empirically assess the structure of a distribution shift that one is encountering in practice. In this work, we adopt a causal framing to motivate conditional independence tests as a key tool for characterizing distribution shifts. Using our approach in two medical applications, we show that this knowledge can help diagnose failures of fairness transfer, including cases where real-world shifts are more complex than is often assumed in the literature. Based on these results, we discuss potential remedies at each step of the machine learning pipeline.

Undesired bias afflicts both human and algorithmic decision making, and may be especially prevalent when information processing trade-offs incentivize the use of heuristics. One primary example is \textit{statistical discrimination} -- selecting social partners based not on their underlying attributes, but on readily perceptible characteristics that covary with their suitability for the task at hand. We present a theoretical model to examine how information processing influences statistical discrimination and test its predictions using multi-agent reinforcement learning with various agent architectures in a partner choice-based social dilemma. As predicted, statistical discrimination emerges in agent policies as a function of both the bias in the training population and of agent architecture. All agents showed substantial statistical discrimination, defaulting to using the readily available correlates instead of the outcome relevant features. We show that less discrimination emerges with agents that use recurrent neural networks, and when their training environment has less bias. However, all agent algorithms we tried still exhibited substantial bias after learning in biased training populations., Comment: 29 pages, 10 figures