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We assessed the prevalence of reported alcohol use and its association with multimorbidity among adults aged 40 years and above in a rural, transitioning South African setting. Findings could potentially inform alcohol interventions integration in the prevention and treatment of chronic conditions. We analysed data from the first wave of The Health and Ageing in Africa—a longitudinal Study in an INDEPTH community (HAALSI) nested within the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems, conducted between November 2014 and November 2015 (n = 5059). We computed descriptive statistics and performed univariate analysis to determine factors independently associated with multimorbidity. Age, Body Mass Index, education, sex, and household wealth status and variables with a p-value < 0.20 in univariate analysis were included in multivariable Modified Poisson regression models. Any factors with a p-value of < 0.05 in the final models were considered statistically significant. The first wave of HAALSI was completed by 5059 participants aged 40 years and above and included 2714 (53.6%) females. The prevalence of reported ever alcohol use was 44.6% (n = 2253) and of these 51.9% (n = 1171) reported alcohol use in the last 30 days. The prevalence of HIV multimorbidity was 59.6% (3014/5059) and for multimorbidity without HIV 52.5% (2657/5059). Alcohol use was associated with HIV multimorbidity among all participants (RR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02–1.08), and separately for males (RR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.00–1.10) and females (RR: 1.06, 95%CI: 1.02–1.11). Similarly, alcohol use was associated with multimorbidity without HIV among all participants (RR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02–1.09), and separately for males (RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.00–1.12) and females (RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01–1.11). Reported alcohol use was common and associated with HIV multimorbidity and multimorbidity without HIV among older adults in rural northeast South Africa. There is a need to integrate Screening, Brief Interventions, and Referral for alcohol Treatment in the existing prevention and treatment of multimorbidity in South Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tuberculosis screening of people living with HIV (PLHIV) - an intervention to reduce the burden of TB among PLHIV - is being implemented at HIV clinics in Ghana since 2007, but TB screening coverage remains low. Facility adherence to intervention guidelines may be a factor but is missing in implementation science literature. This study assesses the level of HIV clinic adherence to the guidelines and related facility characteristics in selected district hospitals in Ghana.Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in all 27 district hospitals with HIV clinics, X-ray and geneXpert machines in Ghana. These hospitals are in 27 districts representing about 27% of the 100 district hospitals with HIV clinics in Ghana. A data collection tool with 18-items (maximum score of 29) was developed from the TB/HIV collaborative guidelines to assess facility adherence to four interrelated components of the TB screening programme as stated in the guidelines: intensive TB case-finding among PLHIV (ITCF), Isoniazid preventive therapy initiation (IPT), TB infection control (TIC), and programme review meetings (PRM). Data were collected through record review and interviews with 27 key informants from each hospital. Adherence scores per component were summed to determine an overall adherence score per facility and summarized using medians and converted to proportions. Facility characteristics were assessed and compared across facilities with high (above median) versus low (below median) overall adherence scores, using nonparametric test statistics.Results: From the 27 key interviews and facility records reviewed, the median adherence scores for ITCF, IPT, TIC, and PRM components were 85.7% (IQR: 85.5-100.0), 0% (IQR: 0-66.7), 33.3% (IQR: 33.3-50.0), and 90.0% (IQR: 70.0-90.0), respectively. The overall median adherence score was 62.1% (IQR: 58.6-65.1), and 17 clinics (63%) with overall adherence score above the median were categorized as high adherence. Compared to low adherence facilities, high adherence facilities had statistically significant lower PLHIV clinic attendees per month (256 (IQR: 60-904) vs. 900 (IQR: 609-2622); p = 0.042), and lower HIV provider workloads (28.6 (IQR: 8.6-113) vs. 90 (IQR: 66.7-263.5); p = 0.046), and most had screening guidelines (76%, p < 0.01) and questionnaire (80%, p < 0.01) available on-site.Conclusion: PRM had highest score while the IPT component had the lowest score. Almost a third of the facilities implemented the TB screening programme activities with a high level of adherence to the guidelines. We suggest to ensure adherence to all four components, reducing staff workloads and making TB screening questionnaires and guidelines available on-site would increase facility adherence to the intervention and ultimately achieve intervention targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are numerous fields of science in which multistate models are used, including biomedical research and health economics. In biomedical studies, these stochastic continuous-time models are used to describe the time-to-event life history of an individual through a flexible framework for longitudinal data. The multistate framework can describe more than one possible time-to-event outcome for a single individual. The standard estimation quantities in multistate models are transition probabilities and transition rates which can be mapped through the Kolmogorov-Chapman forward equations from the Bayesian estimation perspective. Most multistate models assume the Markov property and time homogeneity; however, if these assumptions are violated, an extension to non-Markovian and time-varying transition rates is possible. This manuscript extends reviews in various types of multistate models, assumptions, methods of estimation and data features compatible with fitting multistate models. We highlight the contrast between the frequentist (maximum likelihood estimation) and the Bayesian estimation approaches in the multistate modeling framework and point out where the latter is advantageous. A partially observed and aggregated dataset from the Zimbabwe national ART program was used to illustrate the use of Kolmogorov-Chapman forward equations. The transition rates from a three-stage reversible multistate model based on viral load measurements in WinBUGS were reported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Over a decade of implementing a global strategy to eliminate lymphatic filariasis in Ghana through mass drug administration, the disease is still being transmitted in 11 districts out of an initial 98 endemic districts identified in 2000. A context-specific evidence-based quality improvement intervention was implemented in the Bole District of Northern Ghana after an initial needs assessment to improve the lymphatic filariasis mass drug administration towards eliminating the disease. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the process and impact of the lymphatic filariasis context-specific evidence-based quality improvement intervention in the Bole District of Northern Ghana. Method: A cross-sectional mixed methods study using the RE-AIM (Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance) framework to evaluate the context-specific evidence-based quality improvement intervention was employed. Quantitative secondary data was extracted from the neglected tropical diseases database. A community survey was conducted with 446 randomly selected participants. Qualitative data were collected from 42 purposively selected health workers, chiefs/opinion leaders and community drug distributors in the study area. Results: The evaluation findings showed an improvement in social mobilisation and sensitisation, knowledge about lymphatic filariasis and mass drug administration process, willingness to ingest the medication and adherence to the direct observation treatment strategy. We observed an increase in coverage ranging from 0.1 to 12.3% after implementing the intervention at the sub-district level and reducing self-reported adverse drug reaction. The level of reach, effectiveness and adoption at the district, sub-district and individual participants' level suggest that the context-specific evidence-based quality improvement intervention is feasible to implement in lymphatic filariasis hotspot districts based on initial context-specific needs assessment. Conclusion: The study provided the groundwork for future application of the RE-AIM framework to evaluate the implementation of context-specific evidence-based quality improvement intervention to improve lymphatic filariasis mass drug administration towards eliminating the disease as a public health problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite remarkable progress in reducing under five mortalities in Malawi, a relative proportion of under nutrition among children still exist. Objectives: The study examines dietary consumption factors and their effect on under nutrition outcomes among children under five years' children in rural Malawi. Methods: Using the 2015–16 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey, in which 4,150 children were reported of under nutrition statuses, the study used nested logistic regression models to estimate factors influencing the prevalence of under nutrition among children. Results: Based on the results, exclusive breast feeding among children under five years, after controlling for parental socioeconomic factors, was found to reduce the levels of wasting (ODDS RATIO [OR] = 0.763; p < 0.05), underweight (OR = 0.548; p < 0.001) and stunting (OR = 0.709; p < 0.005). Furthermore, it was found that despite the perceived adequacy among women in accessing fruits and vegetables, carbohydrates and micro-nutrient supplements, their children under five years, still experiences public health challenges and suffers from wasting, underweight and stunting. Conclusion: There is need to implement extensive pro-rural under five nutritional and health educational advocacy using community-based approaches, targeting parents, emphasizing the significance of exclusive breast feeding and consistencies in giving dietary foods, if and only if the persistent public health challenges due to under nutrition among children under five years, is to be sustainably dealt with, in Malawi. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Malaria is still a disease of global public health importance and children under-five years of age are the most vulnerable to the disease. Nigeria adopted the "test and treat" strategy in the national malaria guidelines as one of the ways to control malaria transmission. The level of adherence to the guidelines is an important indicator for the success or failure of the country's roadmap to malaria elimination by 2030. This study aimed to assess the fidelity of implementation of the national guidelines on malaria diagnosis for children under-five years and examine its associated moderating factors in health care facilities in Rivers State, Nigeria. Methods: This was a descriptive, cross-sectional study conducted in Port Harcourt metropolis. Data were collected from 147 public, formal private and informal private health care facilities. The study used a questionnaire developed based on Carroll's Conceptual Framework for Implementation Fidelity. Frequency, mean and median scores for implementation fidelity and its associated factors were calculated. Associations between fidelity and the measured predictors were examined using Mann Whitney U test, Kruskal Wallis test, and multiple linear regression modelling using robust estimation of errors. Regression results are presented in adjusted coefficient (β) and 95% confidence intervals. Results: The median (IQR) score fidelity score for all participants was 65% (43.3, 85). Informal private facilities (proprietary patent medicine vendors) had the lowest fidelity scores (47%) compared to formal private (69%) and public health facilities (79%). Intervention complexity had a statistically significant inverse relationship to implementation fidelity (β = − 1.89 [− 3.42, − 0.34]). Increase in participant responsiveness (β = 8.57 [4.83, 12.32]) and the type of malaria test offered at the facility (e.g., RDT vs. no test, β = 16.90 [6.78, 27.03]; microscopy vs. no test, β = 21.88 [13.60, 30.16]) were positively associated with fidelity score. Conclusions: This study showed that core elements of the "test and treat" strategy, such as testing all suspected cases with approved diagnostic methods before treatment, are still not fully implemented by health facilities. There is a need for strategies to increase fidelity, especially in the informal private health sector, for malaria elimination programme outcomes to be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase (NDM)-producing Gram-negative bacteria have spread globally and pose a significant public health threat. There is a need to better define risk factors and outcomes of NDM-1 clinical infection. We assessed risk factors for nosocomial infection with NDM-1-producers and associated in-hospital mortality. Methods: A matched case-control study was conducted during a nosocomial outbreak of NDM-1-producers in an adult intensive care unit (ICU) in South Africa. All patients from whom NDM-1-producers were identified were considered (n=105). Cases included patients admitted during the study period in whom NDM-1 producing Gram-negative bacteria were isolated from clinical specimens collected ≥48 hours after admission, and where surveillance definitions for healthcare-associated infections were met. Controls were matched for age, sex, date of hospital admission and intensive-care admission. Conditional logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for NDM-1 clinical infection and associated in-hospital mortality. Findings: 38 cases and 68 controls were included. Klebsiella pneumoniae was the most common NDM-1-producer (28/38, 74%). Cases had longer mean hospital stays (44.0 vs. 13.3 days; P < 0.001) and ICU stays (32.5 vs. 8.3 days; P < 0.001). Adjusting for co-morbid disease, the in-hospital mortality of cases was significantly higher than controls (55.3% vs. 14.7%; AOR, 11.29; P < 0.001). Higher Charlson co-morbidity index score (5.2 vs. 4.1; AOR, 1.59; P = 0.005), mechanical ventilation days (7.47 vs. 0.94 days; AOR, 1.32; P = 0.003) and piperacillin/tazobactam exposure (11.03 vs. 1.05 doses; AOR, 1.08; P = 0.013) were identified as risk factors on multivariate analysis. Cases had a significantly higher likelihood of in-hospital mortality when the NDM-1-producer was Klebsiella pneumoniae (AOR, 16.57; P = 0.007), or when they had a bloodstream infection (AOR, 8.84; P = 0.041). Conclusion: NDM-1 infection is associated with significant in-hospital mortality. Risk factors for hospital-associated infection include the presence of co-morbid disease, mechanical ventilation and piperacillin/tazobactam exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Staff retention and turnover have risen in prominence in the global discourse on the health workforce. Moonlighting, having a second job in addition to a primary job, has not featured in debates on turnover. Objective: This paper examines whether moonlighting is a determinant of South African nurses' intention to leave their primary jobs. Design: During 2010, a one-stage cluster random sample of 80 hospitals was selected in four South African provinces. On the survey day, all nurses working in critical care, theatre, emergency, maternity, and general medical and surgical wards completed a self-administered questionnaire after giving informed consent. In addition to demographic information and information on moonlighting, the questionnaire obtained information on the participants' intention to leave their primary jobs in the 12 months following the survey. A weighted analysis of the survey data was done using STATA® 13. Results: Survey participants (n=3,784) were predominantly middle-aged with a mean age of 41.5 (SD±10.4) years. Almost one-third of survey participants (30.9%) indicated that they planned to leave their jobs within 12 months. Intention to leave was higher among the moonlighters (39.5%) compared to non-moonlighters (27.9%; p<0.001). Predictors of intention to leave in a multiple logistic regression were moonlighting in the preceding year, nursing category, sector of primary employment, period working at the primary job, and number of children. The odds of intention to leave was 1.40 (95% CI: 1.16-1.69) times higher for moonlighters than for non-moonlighters. The odds ratio of intention to leave was 0.53 (95% CI: 0.42-0.66) for nursing assistants compared to professional nurses and 2.09 (95% CI: 1.49-2.94) for nurses working for a commercial nursing agency compared to those working in the public sector. Conclusions: Moonlighting is a predictor of intention to leave. Both individual and organisational strategies are needed to manage moonlighting and to enhance retention among South African nurses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Anaemia is one of the most frequent haematological complications in HIV-infected persons. Understanding factors associated with recovery from anaemia during ART is vital in improving clinical outcomes since anaemia is a strong predictor of mortality. Methods: Cohort study of 12,441 HIV-infected adults initiating ART between 2004- 2010 in Johannesburg, South Africa. A further 2,489 patients with prevalent anaemia at ART initiation were examined to determine the incidence and predictors of recovery from anaemia. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to investigate predictors of recovery from anaemia. Results: Of the 2,489 patients with prevalent anaemia, most patients (n=2,225, 89.4%) recovered from anaemia. Median time to anaemia recovery was 3.9 months (IQR: 3.22-6.20) and incidence rate was 180 per 100person years (95% CI: 172-187). In univariate analysis, sex, CD4 count, BMI, WHO stage, employment status, smoking status and presence of tuberculosis at initiation of ART were significant predictors of recovery from anaemia. However in multivariate analysis, predictors of recovery from anaemia were: male sex- HR: 1.43 (95% CI: 1.29-1.59) p< 0.001, advanced WHO stage III/IV - HR: 1.17 (95% CI: 1.07-1.29) p=0.001). There was no significant association with CD4 count in multivariate analysis. Conclusion: A large proportion of HIV infected patients with anaemia at baseline recover early during the course of ART. Females and those with less advanced WHO stage seem to be at higher risk of poor recovery from anaemia. Understanding the predictors for poor recovery from anaemia would allow closer follow-up and more targeted interventions thus reducing excess anaemia and mortality burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Existing literature revealed positive association between women's education and modern contraceptive use in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Overall modern contraception prevalence (MCP) and proportion of women with formal education have increased in region. However, little is known about how much the change in the prevalence of modern contraceptive methods is relative to the compositional change in population and how much of the change is actually due to increases in the number of women adopting the new behavior. Objective(s) This study aims to (1) describe trends in modern contraception prevalence by female education; and (2) identify the source of changes in modern contraceptive use by educational attainment (changes in structure or in population behavior). Study Design This is a cross-sectional study using Demographic and Health Surveys from 27 SSA countries where at least two comparable surveys have been conducted. Results Overall modern contraception prevalence (MCP) has increased in SSA over the study period. The ongoing increase in the contraceptive use is due to changes in behavior consistent with the ongoing family planning promotion over the past 30 years. By contrast, an increase in the proportion of women with secondary education does not explain the change in MCP in most SSA countries. Conclusion(s) To achieve universal access to family planning, efforts in promoting female education should be complemented with economic, cultural and geographical access to MCP. Household-based sensitization, general hospitals, mobile family planning clinics, and community-based distributors of modern contraceptive methods are key strategies to improve access to modern contraceptive use. Implication Findings from this study suggest that countries should combine social investments, including health services and education, with family planning programs using reproductive health services, mobile family planning clinics and community-based distributors of modern contraceptive methods. Therefore, governments' legislation measures that promote universal secondary education as well as universal access to modern contraception can be put in place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Staff retention and turnover have risen in prominence in the global discourse on the health workforce. Moonlighting, having a second job in addition to a primary job, has not featured in debates on turnover. Objective: This paper examines whether moonlighting is a determinant of South African nurses’ intention to leave their primary jobs. Design: During 2010, a one-stage cluster random sample of 80 hospitals was selected in four South African provinces. On the survey day, all nurses working in critical care, theatre, emergency, maternity, and general medical and surgical wards completed a self-administered questionnaire after giving informed consent. In addition to demographic information and information on moonlighting, the questionnaire obtained information on the participants’ intention to leave their primary jobs in the 12 months following the survey. A weighted analysis of the survey data was done using STATA† 13. Results: Survey participants (n3,784) were predominantly middle-aged with a mean age of 41.5 (SD910.4) years. Almost one-third of survey participants (30.9%) indicated that they planned to leave their jobs within 12 months. Intention to leave was higher among the moonlighters (39.5%) compared to non-moonlighters (27.9%; pB0.001). Predictors of intention to leave in a multiple logistic regression were moonlighting in the preceding year, nursing category, sector of primary employment, period working at the primary job, and number of children. The odds of intention to leave was 1.40 (95% CI: 1.161.69) times higher for moonlighters than for non-moonlighters. The odds ratio of intention to leave was 0.53 (95% CI: 0.420.66) for nursing assistants compared to professional nurses and 2.09 (95% CI: 1.492.94) for nurses working for a commercial nursing agency compared to those working in the public sector. Conclusions: Moonlighting is a predictor of intention to leave. Both individual and organisational strategies are needed to manage moonlighting and to enhance retention among South African nurses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The length of time between two successive live births (birth interval), is associated with child survival in the developing world. Short birth intervals (<24 months) contribute to infant and child mortality risks. Contraceptive use contributes to a reduction in short birth intervals, but evidence is lacking in the DRC. We aimed to investigate the proportion of short birth intervals at the provincial level among young women in the DRC. Methods: Data from the Demographic and Health Survey undertaken in the DRC in 2007 were analyzed. Logistic regression and Bayesian geo-additive models were used to explain provincial inequalities in short birth intervals among women of reproductive age and young women. Posterior odds ratio (OR) and 95% credible region (CR) were estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Posterior spatial effects and the associated posterior probability maps were produced at the provincial-level to highlight provinces with a significant higher risk of short birth interval. Results: The overall proportion of short birth intervals among all women of reproductive age (15-49 years) and young women (15-24 years) were 30.2% and 38.7% respectively. In multivariate Bayesian geo-additive regression analyses, among the whole sample of women, living in rural areas [OR = 1.07, 95% CR: (0.97, 1.17)], exclusive breastfeeding [1.08 (1.00, 1.17)] and women with primary education [1.06 (1.00, 1.16)], were consistently associated with a higher risk of short birth intervals. For the young women, none of the factors considered were associated with the risk of short birth interval except a marginal effect from the lack of education. There was a spatial variation in the proportion of women reporting short birth intervals and among all women of reproductive age across provinces, with Nord-Kivu [1.12 (1.02, 1.24)], Sud Kivu [1.17 (1.05, 1.29)] and Kasai Occidental [1.18 (1.06, 1.32)] reporting a higher risk of short birth intervals. For young women, the higher risk provinces were Nord-Kivu [1.22 (1.00, 1.54)] and Sud Kivu [1.34 (1.14, 1.63)]. Conclusions: This study suggests distinct geographic patterns in the proportion of short birth intervals among Congolese women, as well as the potential role of demographic and geographic location factors driving the ongoing higher youth fertility, higher childhood and maternal mortality in the DRC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Longitudinal mortality data with few deaths usually have problems of zero-inflation. This paper presents and applies two Bayesian models which cater for zero-inflation, spatial and temporal random effects. To reduce the computational burden experienced when a large number of geo-locations are treated as a Gaussian field (GF) we transformed the field to a Gaussian Markov Random Fields (GMRF) by triangulation. We then modelled the spatial random effects using the Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDEs). Inference was done using a computationally efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) called Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) suited for GMRF. The models were applied to data from 71,057 children aged 0 to under 10 years from rural north-east South Africa living in 15,703 households over the years 1992–2010. We found protective effects on HIV/TB mortality due to greater birth weight, older age and more antenatal clinic visits during pregnancy (adjusted RR (95% CI)): 0.73(0.53;0.99), 0.18(0.14;0.22) and 0.96(0.94;0.97) respectively. Therefore childhood HIV/TB mortality could be reduced if mothers are better catered for during pregnancy as this can reduce mother-to-child transmissions and contribute to improved birth weights. The INLA and SPDE approaches are computationally good alternatives in modelling large multilevel spatiotemporal GMRF data structures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: Despite great efforts to control Tuberculosis (TB), progress is compromised by low adherence to medication, leading to prolonged duration of infectiousness and continued transmission. Investigating low adherence is of high importance from TB programmatic perspective. Though data on actual days of missed treatment exist, the effect of such on TB cure rates has not been investigated. Methods: TB operational research data were extracted for smear-positive pulmonary TB patients registered at Zomba Central hospital, Malawi from January 2007 to December 2008. Results: Of the 524 patients, 302 (57.6%) were males and 340 (64.9%) fully adhered to treatment. Excluding 5 individuals with missing data on cure, four hundred and eighty-one (92.7%) were cured of TB, and of these 162 (33.7%) missed at least one day of treatment. Respectively, 49/64 (76.6%) and 71/76 (93.4%) of those who missed treatment in the intensive and continuation phases were cured of TB (p = 0.005). The adjusted logistic regression analysis showed that those who missed 15–29 days of treatment (OR = 0.04, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.14) were less likely to be cured of TB compared with those who fully adhered. Conclusion: Treatment non-adherence was high and was observed even within the first 2 months of treatment. Thus, even at an earlier critical stage of treatment, simple algorithms need to be developed to identify and monitor patients at higher risk of non-adherence. Efforts on treatment compliance counselling should focus on enhanced counselling to improve adherence during the intensive treatment phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Household contact with an index case of an infectious disease is a known risk factor for infection transmission. However, such contact may be underestimated due to the dynamic nature of households, particularly in longitudinal studies. Such studies generally begin with contact defined at a single point in time ('snap-shot'), leading to contact misclassification for some individuals who actually experienced contact before and after the snapshot. Objective: To quantify contact misclassification with index cases of disease in households. Methods: Historical data of 112,026 individuals from 17,889 households from an epidemiological study on leprosy in northern Malawi were used. Individuals were interviewed in the early 1980s and followed up over 5 years. It was possible to trace whether individuals died, changed household within the area, or moved out of the area between the two surveys.Using a 10% sample of households as the starting population and parameters for demographic and household changes over 5 years, the extent of contact misclassification was estimated through a simulation model of household dynamics, which traced contact with index cases in households over time. The model thereafter compared initial contact status and 'true' contact status generated from simulations. Results: The starting population had 11,401 individuals, 52% female, and 224 (2%) leprosy index cases. Eleven percent of the households had at least one index case resident and 10% (1, 177) of non-case individuals were initial contacts. Sensitivity of initial contact status ranged from 0.52 to 0.74 and varied by age and sex. Sensitivity was low in those aged 20-29 and under 5 years but high in 5- to 14-year-olds. By gender, there were no differences among those aged under 5; females had lower sensitivity among those aged under 20 and higher for those above 30, respectively. Sensitivity was also low in simulations of long incubation periods. Conclusion: This work demonstrates the implications of changes in households on household contact-associated disease spread, particularly for long durations of follow-up and infections with long incubation periods where earlier unobserved contact is critical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Malaria is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. Malaria infection in pregnancy can have severe consequences for the fetus and the mother. To fight against malaria infection in pregnancy, Kenya integrated the issuance of an insecticide-treated net (ITN) and intermittent preventive treatment with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTpSP) with antenatal care (ANC) for pregnant women. However, the uptake of the ITN and IPTpSP is still low. Individual, social, or structural factors may influence the low uptake. It is, therefore, important to identify the determinants associated with the uptake of ITN and IPTpSP during pregnancy in Kenya. Methods: Data were from the 2020 Kenya Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS). A total of 1779 women between the ages of 15 to 49 years who had a history of either being pregnant or having given birth within 5 years before the MIS survey were included. Survey-adjusted multinomial logistic regression was used in the analysis. Results: During pregnancy, ITN use was more than half (54.9%). The use of at least one dose of IPTpSP was 43.5%, three or more doses of IPTpSP was 27.2%, and only 28.2% of the participants used both ITN and IPTpSP during pregnancy. The significant determinants of combined use of ITN and IPTpSP during pregnancy were maternal age (RR 3.57, CI 1.80–7.08; p=<0.001), maternal education (RRR 2.84, CI 1.33–6.06; p=0.007), wealth index (RR 2.14, CI 1.19–3.84; p=0.011) and living in the different malaria epidemiological zones: lake endemic (RRR 10.57 CI 5.65–19.76; p=<0.001), coastal endemic area (RRR 4.86 CI 1.86–12.67; p=0.001), seasonal (RRR 0.21 CI 0.10–0.39; p=<0.001) and low risk (RRR 0.07, CI 0.03–0.17; p=<0.001). Conclusion: The uptake of malaria preventive measures is still below 80% for both ITN and IPTpSP during pregnancy in Kenya. The significant results on determinants of the use of ITN and IPTpSP could be considered in implementing malaria prevention programmes during pregnancy. For example, sensitizing the community on the importance of antenatal care visits will provide a platform to teach the importance of malaria prevention in pregnancy. Moreover, the pregnant mothers receive an ITN and IPTpSP during the ANC visit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Trachoma, one of the neglected tropical diseases is suspected to be endemic in Malawi. Objectives: To determine the prevalence of trachoma and associated risk factors in central and southern Malawi. Methodology/Principal Findings: A population based survey conducted in randomly selected clusters in Chikwawa district (population 438,895), southern Malawi and Mchinji district (population 456,558), central Malawi. Children aged 1-9 years and adults aged 15 and above were assessed for clinical signs of trachoma. In total, 1010 households in Chikwawa and 1016 households in Mchinji districts were enumerated within 108 clusters (54 clusters in each district). A total of 6,792 persons were examined for ocular signs of trachoma. The prevalence of trachomatous inflammation, follicular (TF) among children aged 1-9 years was 13.6% (CI 11.6-15.6) in Chikwawa and 21.7% (CI 19.5-23.9) in Mchinji districts respectively. The prevalence of trachoma trichiasis (TT) in women and men aged 15 years and above was 0.6% (CI 0.2-0.9) in Chikwawa and 0.3% (CI 0.04-0.6) in Mchinji respectively. The presence of a dirty face was significantly associated with trachoma follicular (TF) in both Chikwawa and Mchinji districts (P<0.001). Conclusion/Significance: Prevalence rates of trachoma follicles (TF) in Central and Southern Malawi exceeds the WHO guidelines for the intervention with mass antibiotic distribution (TF>10%), and warrants the trachoma SAFE control strategy to be undertaken in Chikwawa and Mchinji districts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Malaria is a major public health problem in Malawi, however, quantifying its burden in a population is a challenge. Routine hospital data provide a proxy for measuring the incidence of severe malaria and for crudely estimating morbidity rates. Using such data, this paper proposes a method to describe trends, patterns and factors associated with in-hospital mortality attributed to the disease. Methods: We develop semiparametric regression models which allow joint analysis of nonlinear effects of calendar time and continuous covariates, spatially structured variation, unstructured heterogeneity, and other fixed covariates. Modelling and inference use the fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques. The methodology is applied to analyse data arising from paediatric wards in Zomba district, Malawi, between 2002 and 2003. Results and Conclusion: We observe that the risk of dying in hospital is lower in the dry season, and for children who travel a distance of less than 5 kms to the hospital, but increases for those who are referred to the hospital. The results also indicate significant differences in both structured and unstructured spatial effects, and the health facility effects reveal considerable differences by type of facility or practice. More importantly, our approach shows non-linearities in the effect of metrical covariates on the probability of dying in hospital. The study emphasizes that the methodological framework used provides a useful tool for analysing the data at hand and of similar structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Gabon still bears significant malaria burden despite numerous efforts. To reduce this burden, policy-makers need strategies to design effective interventions. Besides, malaria distribution is well known to be related to the meteorological conditions. In Gabon, there is limited knowledge of the spatio-temporal effect or the environmental factors on this distribution. This study aimed to investigate on the spatio-temporal effects and environmental factors on the distribution of malaria prevalence among children 2–10 years of age in Gabon. Methods: The study used cross-sectional data from the Demographic Health Survey (DHS) carried out in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. The malaria prevalence was obtained by considering the weighting scheme and using the space–time smoothing model. Spatial autocorrelation was inferred using the Moran's I index, and hotspots were identified with the local statistic Getis-Ord General Gi. For the effect of covariates on the prevalence, several spatial methods implemented in the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approach using Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDE) were compared. Results: The study considered 336 clusters, with 153 (46%) in rural and 183 (54%) in urban areas. The prevalence was highest in the Estuaire province in 2000, reaching 46%. It decreased until 2010, exhibiting strong spatial correlation (P < 0.001), decreasing slowly with distance. Hotspots were identified in north-western and western Gabon. Using the Spatial Durbin Error Model (SDEM), the relationship between the prevalence and insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) coverage was decreasing after 20% of coverage. The prevalence in a cluster decreased significantly with the increase per percentage of ITNs coverage in the nearby clusters, and per degree Celsius of day land surface temperature in the same cluster. It slightly increased with the number of wet days and mean temperature per month in neighbouring clusters. Conclusions: In summary, this study showed evidence of strong spatial effect influencing malaria prevalence in household clusters. Increasing ITN coverage by 20% and prioritizing hotspots are essential policy recommendations. The effects of environmental factors should be considered, and collaboration with the national meteorological department (DGM) for early warning systems is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Patients with recurrent TB have an increased risk of higher mortality, lower success rate, and a relatively feeble likelihood of treatment completion than those with new-onset TB. This study aimed to assess the epidemiology of recurrent TB in Tanzania; specifically, we aim to determine the prevalence of TB recurrence and factors associated with unfavourable treatment outcomes among patients with recurrent TB in Tanzania from 2018 to 2021. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, we utilized Tanzania's routinely collected national TB program data. The study involved a cohort of TB patients over a fixed treatment period registered in the TB and Leprosy case-based District Health Information System (DHIS2-ETL) database from 2018 to 2021 in Tanzania. We included patients' sociodemographic and clinical factors, facility characteristics, and TB treatment outcomes. We conducted bivariate analysis and multivariable multi-level mixed effects logistic regression of factors associated with TB recurrence and TB treatment outcomes to account for the correlations at the facility level. A purposeful selection method was used; the multivariable model included apriori selected variables (Age, Sex, and HIV status) and variables with a p-value <0.2 on bivariate analysis. The adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval were recorded, and a p-value of less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Findings: A total of 319,717 participants were included in the study; the majority were adults aged 25–49 (44.2%, n = 141,193) and above 50 years (31.6%, n = 101,039). About two-thirds were male (60.4%, n = 192,986), and more than one-fifth of participants (22.8%, n = 72,396) were HIV positive. Nearly two in every hundred TB patients had a recurrent TB episode (2.0%, n = 6,723). About 10% of patients with recurrent TB had unfavourable treatment outcomes (9.6%, n = 519). The odds of poor treatment outcomes were two-fold higher for participants receiving treatment at the central (aOR = 2.24; 95% CI 1.33–3.78) and coastal zones (aOR = 2.20; 95% CI 1.40–3.47) than the northern zone. HIV-positive participants had 62% extra odds of unfavourable treatment outcomes compared to their HIV-negative counterparts (aOR = 1.62; 95% CI 1.25–2.11). Bacteriological TB diagnosis (aOR = 1.39; 95% CI 1.02–1.90) was associated with a 39% additional risk of unfavourable treatment outcomes as compared to clinical TB diagnosis. Compared to community-based DOT, patients who received DOT at the facility had 1.39 times the odds of poor treatment outcomes (aOR = 1.39; 95%CI 1.04–1.85). Conclusion: TB recurrence in Tanzania accounts for 2% of all TB cases, and it is associated with poor treatment outcomes. Unfavourable treatment outcomes were recorded in 10% of patients with recurrent TB. Poor TB treatment outcome was associated with HIV-positive status, facility-based DOT, bacteriologically confirmed TB and receiving treatment at the hospital level, differing among regions. We recommend post-treatment follow-up for patients with recurrent TB, especially those coinfected with HIV. We also propose close follow-up for patients treated at the hospital facility level and strengthening primary health facilities in TB detection and management to facilitate early treatment initiation. Author summary: Why was this study done?: TB recurrence contributes to TB burden and incidence globally, especially among high TB burden countries. Patients previously treated for TB have a high likelihood of acquiring a recurrent TB episode. Recurrent TB is associated with lower cure rates and a high risk of TB drug resistance. A recent systematic review reported successful treatment outcomes in only 68.4% of patients previously treated for TB. In Tanzania, it was reported in 2018 that patients who had previously undergone TB treatment had an approximate 89% success rate, with 6.6% of those who had recurrent TB dying during treatment. The necessity for more studies in this specific re-treatment group is driven by the absence of evidence regarding the treatment outcomes for patients with recurrent TB. What did the researchers do and find?: We analysed a national dataset of all patients with TB diagnosis from 2018 to 2021 recorded in the DHIS2-ETL database countrywide. We determined TB treatment outcome as either favourable if the patients were considered cured or completed treatment; or unfavourable if they were lost to follow-up (default), with treatment failure, or died. We established possible determinants for poor treatment outcomes and considered both individual and facility-level effects in the analysis through a multilevel regression model. About 10% of patients with recurrent TB had unfavourable treatment outcomes; death was the most reported poor outcome affecting 6% of recurrent TB patients. Patients coinfected with HIV, those treated under facility-based DOT, and patients who received treatment in Zanzibar, Coastal, and Central geographical zones had higher rates of poor outcomes. Patients with bacteriologically confirmed TB and who were treated at the hospital were more likely to have unfavourable treatment outcomes. What do these findings mean?: There is a need to design and implement interventions that are specifically targeted for managing patients with TB recurrence, especially for HIV coinfected patients. Drug susceptibility testing and close monitoring after treatment completion are crucial to prevent recurrence. Also, ensuring early detection and treatment and promoting short- and long-term improvements in treatment outcomes for these patients. Capacitating and strengthening Primary health care facilities for TB diagnosis and treatment may be a promising approach to promote early TB detection and treatment initiation and subsequently maintain better outcomes for patients with recurrent TB. This should be coupled with close monitoring of patients treated at the hospital level through an appropriate DOT strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Training in biostatistics is important for strengthening capacity in health research. This is particularly true for Africa, where research output in the health sciences has been low. Training initiatives for the continent are therefore essential. The aim of the present study was to analyse the quality and financial sustainability of the expanded biostatistical support system at a South African health sciences institution between 2013 and 2017.Methods: A cross-sectional investigation of the initiatives created between the years 2013 and 2017 in the University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Health Sciences Research Office was undertaken. An assessment of the one-on-one consultations carried out by postgraduate students and staff, financial costs of the support system and the number of postgraduate student graduations were analysed.Results: The number of statistical consultations increased over the period examined. The consultations were highly recommended by the postgraduate students and staff (consulters). A clear rise in the number of Masters and PhD student graduates and an increase in research units were observed from 2013 to 2017, although these cannot be solely associated with the biostatistical support system. The finances for maintaining the support system are cost effective as the number of graduates increases. The total cost to the Research Office is US$ 225 per graduate per annum.Conclusions: The expansion of the biostatistical support system has indirectly contributed to an increased number of graduates and research publication units in the institution. While the current finances support the system, any increases in enrolments or growth in diversification of biostatistical requirements may place a strain on the financial sustainability. This service is of value to developed and developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims. The management of cardiometabolic goals or “ABCs” (HbA1c, blood pressure (BP), and cholesterol) ultimately determines the morbidity and mortality outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We sought to determine if patients with T2DM attending an urbanized public sector community health centre (CHC) were having their ABCs measured, were treated with appropriate cardioprotective agents and finally, were achieving guideline-based targets. Methods and Results. A cross-sectional record review of 519 patients was conducted between May and August 2015. The mean age was 54 years (SD: ±11.5) and 54% (n=280) were females. Testing of ABCs occurred in 68.8% (n=357) for HbA1c, 95.4% (n=495) for BP, and 58.6% (n=304) for LDL-C. Achievement of ABC targets was as follows: 19.3% (HbA1c < 7%), 22.0% (BP < 140/80 mmHg), and 56.3% (LDL-C < 2.5 mmol/l). Conclusion. There were a significant number of patients who were not tested nor received adequate pharmacotherapy or achieved their ABC targets. This places these patients at an increased risk for the development of diabetes-related complications. Although the realities of resource constraints exist in South Africa’s public sector settings, a wider implementation of evidence-based guidelines must be instituted in order to ensure better patient outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), advanced-stage diagnosis of breast cancer (BC) is common, and this contributes to poor survival. Understanding the determinants of the stage at diagnosis will aid in designing interventions to downstage disease and improve survival from BC in LMICs. Methods: Within the South African Breast Cancers and HIV Outcomes (SABCHO) cohort, we examined factors affecting the stage at diagnosis of histologically confirmed invasive breast cancer at five tertiary hospitals in South Africa (SA). The stage was assessed clinically. To examine the associations of the modifiable health system, socio-economic/household and non-modifiable individual factors, hierarchical multivariable logistic regression with odds of late-stage at diagnosis (stage III-IV), was used. Results: The majority (59%) of the included 3497 women were diagnosed with late-stage BC disease. The effect of health system-level factors on late-stage BC diagnosis was consistent and significant even when adjusted for both socio-economic- and individual-level factors. Women diagnosed in a tertiary hospital that predominantly serves a rural population were 3 times (OR = 2.89 (95% CI: 1.40–5.97) as likely to be associated with late-stage BC diagnosis when compared to those diagnosed at a hospital that predominantly serves an urban population. Taking more than 3 months from identifying the BC problem to the first health system entry (OR = 1.66 (95% CI: 1.38–2.00)), and having luminal B (OR = 1.49 (95% CI: 1.19–1.87)) or HER2-enriched (OR = 1.64 (95% CI: 1.16–2.32)) molecular subtype as compared to luminal A, were associated with a late-stage diagnosis. Whilst having a higher socio-economic level (a wealth index of 5) reduced the probability of late-stage BC at diagnosis, (OR = 0.64 (95% CI: 0.47–0.85)). Conclusion: Advanced-stage diagnosis of BC among women in SA who access health services through the public health system was associated with both modifiable health system-level factors and non-modifiable individual-level factors. These may be considered as elements in interventions to reduce the time to diagnosis of breast cancer in women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We investigated the prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and associated behavioural risk factors in men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) attending a clinical service in Cape Town, South Africa.Methods: MSM were enrolled at the Ivan Toms Centre for Men's Health in Cape Town. A psychosocial and sexual behavioral risk questionnaire was completed for each participant and urine, oro-pharyngeal and anal swabs were collected for HPV testing using the Linear Array HPV Genotyping Test. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine sexual risk factors associated with HPV infection at the three anatomical sites.Results: The median age of all 200 participants was 32 years (IQR 26-39.5), of which 31.0 % were black, 31.5 % mixed race/coloured and 35.5 % white. The majority of the participants (73.0 %) had completed high school, 42.0 % had a tertiary level qualification and 69.0 % were employed. HPV genotypes were detected in 72.8 % [95 % CI: 65.9-79.0 %], 11.5 % [95 % CI: 7.4-16.8 %] and 15.3 % [95 % CI: 10.5-21.2 %] of anal, oro-pharyngeal and urine specimens, respectively. Prevalence of high-risk (HR)-HPV types was 57.6 % [95 % CI: 50.3-64.7 %] in anal samples, 7.5 % [95 % CI: 4.3-12.1 %] in oro-pharyngeal samples and 7.9 % [95 % CI: 4.5-12.7 %] in urine, with HPV-16 being the most common HR-HPV type detected at all sites. HPV-6/11/16/18 was detected in 40.3 % [95 % CI: 33.3-47.6 %], 4.5 % [95 % CI: 2.1-8.4 %] and 3.2 % [95 % CI: 1.2-6.8 %] of anal, oro-pharyngeal and urine samples, respectively. Multiple HPV types were more common in the anal canal of MSM while single HPV types constituted the majority of HPV infections in the oropharynx and urine. Among the 88 MSM (44.0 %) that were HIV positive, 91.8 % [95 % CI: 83.8-96.6 %] had an anal HPV infection, 81.2 % [95 % CI: 71.2-88.8 %] had anal HR-HPV and 85.9 % [95 % CI: 76.6-92.5 %] had multiple anal HPV types. Having sex with men only, engaging in group sex in lifetime, living with HIV and practising receptive anal intercourse were the only factors independently associated with having any anal HPV infection.Conclusions: Anal HPV infections were common among MSM in Cape Town with the highest HPV burden among HIV co-infected MSM, men who have sex with men only and those that practiced receptive anal intercourse. Behavioural intervention strategies and the possible roll-out of HPV vaccines among all boys are urgently needed to address the high prevalence of HPV and HIV co-infections among MSM in South Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives To investigate the distribution of human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes and determine the associations between HPV infection and HIV coinfection in sexually active heterosexual men with anogenital warts (GW), male urethral discharge or asymptomatic men. Methods Valid specimens for HPV genotyping were obtained from three patient groups consisting of 108 men with GW, 56 men with urethral discharge syndrome and 50 asymptomatic men attending for HIV voluntary counselling and testing. The Linear Array HPV Genotyping Test was used to determine the HPV genotype distribution among study participants. Sera were tested for HIV antibodies using two commercial rapid tests. Results The prevalence of anogenital HPV among study participants was 78% (166). HPV DNA was detected in 100% (108) of GW, 48% (27) of men with urethral discharge syndrome and 62% (31) of voluntary counselling and testing participants. HPV types 6, 11, 16 and 18 were prevalent as either single or combined infections in 81% (134) of all HPV-positive study participants. HPV types 6 and/or 11 were significantly higher among GW patients (p<0.001). After adjusting for patient groups, HIV seropositivity was significantly associated with multiple HPV infections (OR=3.98, 95% CI 1.58 to 10.03) but not with the presence of a foreskin (OR=0.67, 95% CI 0.32 to 1.40). Conclusions Infections with HPV were prevalent among sexually active heterosexual men attending the men's sexual health clinic. Associations were observed between HIV coinfection and multiple HPV infections. Further population-based studies on the prevalence of HPV genotypes are required to determine if men should be included in any future national HPV vaccination programme in South Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Decreasing the burden of Tuberculosis (TB) among PLHIV through TB screening is an effective intervention recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). However, after over a decade of implementation in Ghana, the intervention does not realize the expected outcomes. It is also not well understood whether this lack of success is due to implementation barriers. Our study, therefore, sought to examine the factors influencing the implementation of the intervention among people living with HIV (PLHIV) attending HIV clinics at district hospitals in Ghana.Methods: This was a qualitative study conducted from 6th to 31 May 2019 in three regions of Ghana. We conducted 17 in-depth interviews (IDIs - comprising two regional, six districts and nine facility TB/HIV coordinators) and eight focus group discussions (FGD - consisting of a total of 65 participants) with HIV care providers. The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) guided the design of interview guides, data collection and analysis. All responses were digitally audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim for coding and analysis using the Framework Approach. Participants consented to the interview and recording.Results: The main barriers to TB screening relate to the low commitment of the implementers to screen for TB and limited facility infrastructure for the screening activities. Facilitators of TB screening include (1) ease in TB screening, (2) good communication and referral channels, (3) effective goals and feedback mechanisms, (4) health workers recognizing the need for the intervention and (5) the role of chemical sellers.Conclusions: Key barriers and facilitators to the intervention are revealed. The study has shown that there is a need to increase HIV care providers and institutional commitment towards TB screening interventions. In addition, cost issues need to be assessed as they are drivers of sustainability. Our study also advances the field of implementation science through CFIR to better understand the factors influencing the implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the main causes of death in developing countries. Awareness and perception of risk of TB could influence early detection, diagnosis and care seeking at treatment centers. However, perceptions about TB are influenced by sources of information. Aim: This study aimed to determine the association between multiple sources of information, and perceptions of risk of TB among adults aged 18–49 years. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in Ntcheu district in Malawi. A total of 121 adults were sampled in a three-stage simple random sampling technique. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire. Perceptions of risk were measured using specific statements that reflected common myths and misconceptions. Low risk perception implied a person having strong belief in myths and misconceptions about TB and high risk perception meant a person having no belief in myths or misconceptions and demonstrated understanding of the disease. Results: Females were more likely to have low risk perceptions about TB compared to males (67.7% vs. 32.5%, p = 0.01). The higher the household asset index the more likely an individual had higher risk perceptions about TB (p = 0.006). The perception of risk of TB was associated with sources of information (p = 0.03). Use of both interpersonal communication and mass media was 2.8 times more likely to be associated with increased perception of risk of TB (Odds Ratio [OR] = 2.8; 95% Confidence interva1[CI]: 3.1–15. 6; p = 0.01). After adjusting for sex and asset ownership, use of interpersonal communication and mass media were more likely to be associated with higher perception of risk of TB (OR, 2.0; 95% CI: 1.65–10.72; p = 0.003) compared with interpersonal communication only (OR 1.6, 95%; CI: 1.13–8.98, p = 0.027). Conclusion: The study found that there was association between multiple sources of information, and higher perceptions of risk of TB among adults aged 18–49 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since its inception in 1969, the MSc in medical statistics program has placed a high priority on training students from Africa. In this article, we review how the program has shaped, and in turn been shaped by, two substantial capacity building initiatives: (a) a fellowship program, funded by the UK Medical Research Council, and run through the International Statistical Epidemiology Group at the LSHTM, and (b) the Sub‐Saharan capacity building in Biostatistics (SSACAB) initiative, administered through the Developing Excellence in Leadership, Training and Science in Africa (DELTAS) program of the African Academy of Sciences. We reflect on the impact of both initiatives, and the implications for future work in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Nurses constitute the majority of the health workforce in South Africa and they play a major role in providing primary health care (PHC) services. Job satisfaction influences nurse retention and successful implementation of health system reforms. This study was conducted in light of renewed government commitment to reforms at the PHC level, and to contribute to the development of solutions to the challenges faced by the South African nursing workforce. The objective of the study was to determine overall job satisfaction of PHC clinic nursing managers and the predictors of their job satisfaction in two South African provinces. Methods During 2012, a cross-sectional study was conducted in two South African provinces. Stratified random sampling was used to survey a total of 111 nursing managers working in PHC clinics. These managers completed a pre-tested Measure of Job Satisfaction questionnaire with subscales on personal satisfaction, workload, professional support, training, pay, career prospects and standards of care. Mean scores were used to measure overall job satisfaction and various subscales. Predictors of job satisfaction were determined through multiple logistic regression analysis. Results A total of 108 nursing managers completed the survey representing a 97% response rate. The mean age of respondents was 49 years (SD = 7.9) and the majority of them (92%) were female. Seventy-six percent had a PHC clinical training qualification. Overall mean job satisfaction scores were 142.80 (SD = 24.3) and 143.41 (SD = 25.6) for Gauteng and Free State provinces respectively out of a maximum possible score of 215. Predictors of job satisfaction were: working in a clinic of choice (RRR = 3.10 (95% CI: 1.11 to 8.62, P = 0.030)), being tired at work (RRR = 0.19 (95% CI: 0.08 to 0.50, P = 0.001)) and experience of verbal abuse (RRR = 0.18 (95% CI: 0.06 to 0.55, P = 0.001). Conclusion Allowing nurses greater choice of clinic to work in, the prevention of violence and addressing workloads could improve the practice environment and job satisfaction of PHC clinic nursing managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In South Africa, nurses are the largest category of the health care providers. Their optimal performance is critical for the successful implementation of impending health sector reforms. Objective: This paper examines the occurrence of agency nursing, moonlighting, and overtime among nurses in South Africa, and the factors influencing moonlighting. Design: This cross-sectional survey was a one-stage cluster random sample of 80 hospitals in four South African provinces, selected with stratification from the public and private health sectors. On the survey day, all nurses working in critical care, theatre, emergency, maternity, and general medical and surgical wards completed a self-administered questionnaire after giving informed consent. In addition to demographic information, the questionnaire elicited information on the frequency of agency nursing, moonlighting, and overtime, and the nurses’ reasons for doing moonlighting. Survey data were weighted and analysed using STATA version 12. Results: The majority of survey participants (n=3,784) were South African (98.0%), female (92.7%), and employed in government (52.8%). Their mean age was 41.5 years (SD 10.4). The occurrence of moonlighting among nurses in the 12 months preceding the survey was 28.0% [95% CI: 24.2–32.1], the frequency of agency nursing was 37.8% [95% CI: 32.4–43.6], while 56.0% of nurses did overtime [95% CI: 51.4–60.4]. In the multiple logistic regression analysis, predictors of moonlighting were province, sector of primary employment, unit of work, category of nurse, and having children. The odds of moonlighting was 1.51 [95% CI: 1.03–2.21] times higher for private sector nurses than for public nurses, while the odds ratio for auxiliary nurses was 0.61 [95% CI: 0.47–0.79] compared to professional nurses. The odds of moonlighting was 1.49 [95% CI: 1.18–1.89] for nurses with children, compared to those without. Conclusions: Agency nursing, moonlighting, and overtime are common among South African nurses, but have received insufficient policy attention. These issues need to be addressed as part of the implementation of comprehensive health workforce strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In preventive drug trials such as intermittent preventive treatment for malaria prevention during pregnancy (IPTp), where there is repeated treatment administration, recurrence of adverse events (AEs) is expected. Challenges in modelling the risk of the AEs include accounting for time-to-AE and within-patient-correlation, beyond the conventional methods. The correlation comes from two sources; (a) individual patient unobserved heterogeneity (i.e. frailty) and (b) the dependence between AEs characterised by time-dependent treatment effects. Potential AE-dependence can be modelled via time-dependent treatment effects, event-specific baseline and event-specific random effect, while heterogeneity can be modelled via subject-specific random effect. Methods that can improve the estimation of both the unobserved heterogeneity and treatment effects can be useful in understanding the evolution of risk of AEs, especially in preventive trials where time-dependent treatment effect is expected.Methods: Using both a simulation study and the Chloroquine for Malaria in Pregnancy (NCT01443130) trial data to demonstrate the application of the models, we investigated whether the lognormal shared frailty models with restricted cubic splines and non-proportional hazards (LSF-NPH) assumption can improve estimates for both frailty variance and treatment effect compared to the conventional inverse Gaussian shared frailty model with proportional hazard (ISF-PH), in the presence of time-dependent treatment effects and unobserved patient heterogeneity. We assessed the bias, precision gain and coverage probability of 95% confidence interval of the frailty variance estimates for the models under varying known unobserved heterogeneity, sample sizes and time-dependent effects.Results: The ISF-PH model provided a better coverage probability of 95% confidence interval, less bias and less precise frailty variance estimates compared to the LSF-NPH models. The LSF-NPH models yielded unbiased hazard ratio estimates at the expense of imprecision and high mean square error compared to the ISF-PH model.Conclusion: The choice of the shared frailty model for the recurrent AEs analysis should be driven by the study objective. Using the LSF-NPH models is appropriate if unbiased hazard ratio estimation is of primary interest in the presence of time-dependent treatment effects. However, ISF-PH model is appropriate if unbiased frailty variance estimation is of primary interest.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT01443130. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In drug trials, adverse events (AEs) burden can induce treatment non-adherence or discontinuation. The non-adherence and discontinuation induce selection bias, affecting drug safety interpretation. Nested case-control (NCC) study can efficiently quantify the impact of the AEs, although choice of sampling approach is challenging. We investigated whether NCC study with incidence density sampling is more efficient than NCC with path sampling under conditional logistic or weighted Cox models in assessing the effect of AEs on treatment non-adherence and participation in preventive antimalarial drug during pregnancy trial. Methods: Using data from a trial of medication to prevent malaria in pregnancy that randomized 600 women to receive chloroquine or sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine during pregnancy, we conducted a NCC study assessing the role of prospectively collected AEs, as exposure of interest, on treatment non-adherence and study non-completion. We compared estimates from NCC study with incidence density against those from NCC with path sampling under conditional logistic and weighted Cox models. Results: Out of 599 women with the outcomes of interest, 474 (79%) experienced at least one AE before delivery. For conditional logistic model, the hazard ratio for the effect of AE occurrence on treatment non-adherence was 0.70 (95% CI: 0.42, 1.17; p = 0.175) under incidence density sampling and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.41, 1.13; p = 0.137) for path sampling. For study non-completion, the hazard ratio was 1.02 (95% CI: 0.56, 1.83; p = 0.955) under incidence density sampling and 0.85 (95% CI: 0.45, 1.60; p = 0.619) under path sampling. We obtained similar hazard ratios and standard errors under incidence density sampling and path sampling whether weighted Cox or conditional logistic models were used. Conclusion: NCC with incidence density sampling and NCC with path sampling are practically similar in efficiency whether conditional logistic or weighted Cox analytical methods although path sampling uses more unique controls to achieve the similar estimates. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01443130. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hip movement pain was identified in 13 (32.5%) of 40 children and young adults with cerebral palsy who were in residential care. All of the participants were non-ambulatory (Level IV and V of the GMFCS), and their ages ranged from 8 to 26 years (median 16.5 years). Ten of the 13 participants had unilateral hip dislocation and three had bilateral dislocations. Degenerative hip changes were identified on radiographs of the painful dislocated hips. The occurrence of pain during a daily episode of washing, dressing, and transfer was recorded using non-verbal indicators. Washing of the lower body elicited significantly more pain responses than dressing (p=0.008) and transfer (p< 0.001). None of the participants had daily pain during all of the care activities. Pain was present in 1/3 of the patients and was intermittent in nature, indicating that conservative management can be considered for persons with cerebral palsy at Levels IV and V of the GMFCS who have established hip dislocations and this type of pain. This management could include medication, attention to seating and positioning, and careful handling during daily care activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In drug trials, clinical adverse events (AEs), concomitant medication and laboratory safety outcomes are repeatedly collected to support drug safety evidence. Despite the potential correlation of these outcomes, they are typically analysed separately, potentially leading to misinformation and inefficient estimates due to partial assessment of safety data. Using joint modelling, we investigated whether clinical AEs vary by treatment and how laboratory outcomes (alanine amino-transferase, total bilirubin) and concomitant medication are associated with clinical AEs over time following artemisinin-based antimalarial therapy.Methods: We used data from a trial of artemisinin-based treatments for malaria during pregnancy that randomized 870 women to receive artemether-lumefantrine (AL), amodiaquine-artesunate (ASAQ) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHAPQ). We fitted a joint model containing four sub-models from four outcomes: longitudinal sub-model for alanine aminotransferase, longitudinal sub-model for total bilirubin, Poisson sub-model for concomitant medication and Poisson sub-model for clinical AEs. Since the clinical AEs was our primary outcome, the longitudinal sub-models and concomitant medication sub-model were linked to the clinical AEs sub-model via current value and random effects association structures respectively. We fitted a conventional Poisson model for clinical AEs to assess if the effect of treatment on clinical AEs (i.e. incidence rate ratio (IRR)) estimates differed between the conventional Poisson and the joint models, where AL was reference treatment.Results: Out of the 870 women, 564 (65%) experienced at least one AE. Using joint model, AEs were associated with the concomitant medication (log IRR 1.7487; 95% CI: 1.5471, 1.9503; p < 0.001) but not the total bilirubin (log IRR: -0.0288; 95% CI: - 0.5045, 0.4469; p = 0.906) and alanine aminotransferase (log IRR: 0.1153; 95% CI: - 0.0889, 0.3194; p = 0.269). The Poisson model underestimated the effects of treatment on AE incidence such that log IRR for ASAQ was 0.2118 (95% CI: 0.0082, 0.4154; p = 0.041) for joint model compared to 0.1838 (95% CI: 0.0574, 0.3102; p = 0.004) for Poisson model.Conclusion: We demonstrated that although the AEs did not vary across the treatments, the joint model yielded efficient AE incidence estimates compared to the Poisson model. The joint model showed a positive relationship between the AEs and concomitant medication but not with laboratory outcomes.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00852423. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Tuberculosis screening of people living with human immunodeficiency virus is an intervention recommended by the WHO to control the dual epidemic of TB and HIV. The extent to which the intervention is adhered to by the HIV healthcare providers (fidelity) determines the intervention's effectiveness as measured by patient outcomes, but literature on fidelity is scarce. This study assessed provider implementation fidelity to national guidelines on TB screening at HIV clinics in Ghana. Methods: It was a cross-sectional study that used structured questionnaires to gather data, involving 226 of 243 HIV healthcare providers in 27 HIV clinics across Ghana. The overall fidelity score comprised sixteen items with a maximum score of 48 grouped into three components of the screening intervention (TB diagnosis, TB awareness and TB symptoms questionnaire). Simple summation of item scores was done to determine fidelity score per provider. In this paper, we define the level of fidelity as low if the scores were below the median score and were otherwise categorized as high. Background factors potentially associated with implementation fidelity level were assessed using cluster-based logistic regression. Odds ratio with 95% confidence interval (CI) was used as the measure of association. Results: Of the 226 healthcare providers interviewed, 60% (135) were females with a mean age of 34.5 years (SD = 8.3). Most of them were clinicians [63% (142)] and had post-secondary non-tertiary education [62% (141)]. Overall, 53% (119) of the healthcare providers were categorized to have implemented the intervention with high fidelity. Also, 56% (126), 53% (120), and 59% (134) of the providers implemented the TB diagnosis, TB awareness and TB symptoms questionnaire components respectively with high fidelity. After adjusting for cluster effect, female providers (AOR = 2.36, 95%CI: 1.09–5.10, p = <0.029), those with tertiary education (AOR = 4.31, 95%CI: 2.12–9.10, p = 0.040), and clinicians (AOR = 1.78, 95%CI: 1.07–3.50, p = 0.045) were more likely to adhere to the guidelines compared to their counterparts. Conclusion: The number of providers with fidelity scores above the median was marginally greater (6%) than the number with fidelity score below the median. Similarly, for each of the components, the number of providers with fidelity scores higher than the median was marginally higher. This could explain the existing fluctuations in the intervention outcomes in Ghana. We found gender, profession and education were associated with provider implementation fidelity. To improve fidelity level among HIV healthcare providers, and realize the aims of the TB screening intervention among PLHIV in Ghana, further training on implementing all components of the intervention is critical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ghana has been implementing Mass Drug Administration (MDA) since the year 2001, and Lymphatic Filariasis transmission has been interrupted in 76 out of the 98 targeted districts. The remaining districts have a microfilaria prevalence above the 1% threshold needed for the interruption of transmission. This study assesses the level of lymphatic filariasis MDA coverage and explored factors affecting the quality of implementation of the MDA in the Bole and Central Gonja Districts of Northern Ghana. A concurrent mixed methods study design approach was used to provide both a quantitative and qualitative insight. A descriptive analysis was carried out, and the results are presented in tables and charts. The transcripts of the qualitative interviews were imported into Nvivo and framework methods of analysis were used. The results were summarized based on the themes and buttressed with narratives with key quotes presented within the texts. The overall MDA coverage in Central Gonja is 89.3% while that of Bole district is 82.9%. Refusal to ingest the drug and adverse drug reactions were higher in Bole district than the Central Gonja District. The persistent transmission of lymphatic filariasis in Bole District was characterized by poor community mobilization and sensitization, nonadherence to the directly observed treatment strategy, refusal to ingest the drug due to the fear of adverse drug reactions, inadequate knowledge and misconceptions about the disease. Reported mass drug administration coverage will not necessarily result into interruption of transmission of the disease without strict compliance to the directly observed treatment strategy, strong stakeholder engagement coupled with evidence-based context-specific multi-channel community education strategies with key educational messages on the cause of the disease and adverse drug reactions. While the clock for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis by the year 2020 and meeting of the Sustainable Development Goal 3 target 3.3 by 2030 is ticking, there is an urgent need for a concerted effort to improve the fidelity of the ongoing lymphatic filariasis MDA campaigns in the Bole District of Northern Ghana. Author summary: After 18 years of implementing the global strategy to eliminate lymphatic filariasis in Ghana, the prevalence of the transmission of the disease is still above the threshold needed to interrupt transmission of the disease as a public health problem in some districts. This study showed that, the persistent transmission of the lymphatic filariasis in the Bole District is characterized with a refusal to ingest the drug; reported adverse drug reactions; poor knowledge and misconceptions of the disease, and poor adherence to the mass drug administration protocol. High reported mass drug administration coverage will not lead to interruption of transmission of lymphatic filariasis without strict adherence to the direct observe treatment strategy, strong stakeholder engagement coupled with evidence-based context-specific multi-channel community education strategies with key educational messages on adverse drug reactions and the cause of the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Drug safety assessments in clinical trials present unique analytical challenges. Some of these include adjusting for individual follow-up time, repeated measurements of multiple outcomes and missing data among others. Furthermore, pre-specifying appropriate analysis becomes difficult as some safety endpoints are unexpected. Although existing guidelines such as CONSORT encourage thorough reporting of adverse events (AEs) in clinical trials, they provide limited details for safety data analysis. The limited guidelines may influence suboptimal analysis by failing to account for some analysis challenges above. A typical example where such challenges exist are trials of anti-malarial drugs for malaria prevention during pregnancy. Lack of proper standardized evaluation of the safety of antimalarial drugs has limited the ability to draw conclusions about safety. Therefore, a systematic review was conducted to establish the current practice in statistical analysis for preventive antimalarial drug safety in pregnancy. Methods: The search included five databases (PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Malaria in Pregnancy Library and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) to identify original English articles reporting Phase III randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on anti-malarial drugs for malaria prevention in pregnancy published from January 2010 to July 2019. Results: Eighteen trials were included in this review that collected multiple longitudinal safety outcomes including AEs. Statistical analysis and reporting of the safety outcomes in all the trials used descriptive statistics; proportions/counts (n = 18, 100%) and mean/median (n = 2, 11.1%). Results presentation included tabular (n = 16, 88.9%) and text description (n = 2, 11.1%). Univariate inferential methods were reported in most trials (n = 16, 88.9%); including Chi square/Fisher's exact test (n = 12, 66.7%), t test (n = 2, 11.1%) and Mann–Whitney/Wilcoxon test (n = 1, 5.6%). Multivariable methods, including Poisson and negative binomial were reported in few trials (n = 3, 16.7%). Assessment of a potential link between missing efficacy data and safety outcomes was not reported in any of the trials that reported efficacy missing data (n = 7, 38.9%). Conclusion: The review demonstrated that statistical analysis of safety data in anti-malarial drugs for malarial chemoprevention in pregnancy RCTs is inadequate. The analyses insufficiently account for multiple safety outcomes potential dependence, follow-up time and informative missing data which can compromise anti-malarial drug safety evidence development, based on the available data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From 2014 to 2019, the Wits–UNC (University of Witwatersrand and University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) AIDS Implementation Science D43 Training Program laid critical academic foundation by creating a graduate degree program in implementation science (IS) for master's- and doctoral-level students in the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at the Wits School of Public Health. Before this collaboration, funded by the Fogarty International Center (FIC) at National Institutes of Health, no IS degree existed in Southern Africa. The FIC "D43" is an international research training grant mechanism to strengthen global health research expertise through education. Historically, students from low-resource settings have been trained in health sciences at universities in the United States or the United Kingdom. This is not scalable or sustainable and therefore this D43 focused on building capacity in South Africa where HIV-related challenges are located. Consequently, South Africans and other African international students were able to apply to the newly offered program, allowing training at significantly lower costs. IS allows a systematic assessment of factors affecting the implementation of HIV interventions and in developing strategies for addressing them. It guides the successful scale-up of effective programs and informs policy to improve programs. The training aims to assist in lowering the HIV incidence rate, suppressing viral load for those infected, and meeting the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. A second cycle of funding from 2019 to 2024 will enable the infrastructure built in the first program to train South African HIV researchers and practitioners in the field who are unable to enroll in a formal academic program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The Global Strategy to Eliminate Lymphatic Filiariasis (GFELF) through Mass Drug Administration (MDA) has been implemented in Ghana since the year 2000 and transmission has been interrupted in 76 of 98 endemic districts. To improve the MDA in the remaining districts with microfilaria (MF) prevalence above the 1% threshold for the interruption of transmission, there is a need to identify and implement appropriate quality improvement (QI) strategies. This paper describes the use of intervention mapping to select QI strategies to improve an existing evidence-based MDA program in Northern Ghana. Methods: Due to the complexities associated with implementing evidence-based programs (EBP) such as the lymphatic filariasis MDA and variability in the context, an initial assessment to identify implementation bottlenecks associated with the quality of implementation of lymphatic filariasis MDA in the Bole District of Ghana was conducted using a mixed methods approach. Based on the findings of the initial assessment, a context specific QI strategy was designed and operationalized using intervention mapping strategy in terms of seven domains: actor, the action, action targets, temporality, dose, implementation outcomes addressed, and theoretical justification. Results: The initial needs assessment shows that the persistent transmission of lymphatic filariasis in the Bole District is characterized by high levels of refusal to ingest the drug, high levels of reported adverse drug reactions, low MDA coverage at community level, poor adherence to the MDA protocol and non-participants’ responsiveness. Conclusion: This study has shown that it is feasible to develop a context specific QI strategy for an existing evidence-based intervention based on an initial needs assessment through stakeholder participation using the IM approach. However, working (towards) QI requires more time than is usually available in public health service. Sufficient theoretical knowledge of implementation research and experience with technical IM experts must be available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose In low- and middle-income, HIV-endemic regions of sub-Saharan Africa, morbidity and mortality from the common epithelial cancers of the developed world are rising. Even among HIV-infected individuals, access to antiretroviral therapy has enhanced life expectancy, shifting the distribution of cancer diagnoses toward non-AIDS-defining malignancies, including breast cancer. Building on our prior research, we recently initiated the South African Breast Cancer and HIV Outcomes study. Methods We will recruit a cohort of 3,000 women newly diagnosed with breast cancer at hospitals in high (average, 20%) HIV prevalence areas, in Johannesburg, Durban, Pietermaritzburg, and Empangeni. At baseline, we will collect information on demographic, behavioral, clinical, and other factors related to access to health care. Every 3 months in year 1 and every 6 months thereafter, we will collect interview and chart data on treatment, symptoms, cancer progression, comorbidities, and other factors. Wewill compare survival rates of HIV-infected and uninfected women with newly diagnosed breast cancer and their likelihood of receiving suboptimal anticancer therapy. We will identify determinants of suboptimal therapy and context-specific modifiable factors that future interventions can target to improve outcomes. We will explore molecular mechanisms underlying potentially aggressive breast cancer in both HIV-infected and uninfected patients, as well as the roles of pathogens, states of immune activation, and inflammation in disease progression. Conclusion Our goals are to contribute to development of evidence-based guidelines for the management of breast cancer in HIV-positive women and to improve outcomes for all patients with breast cancer in resource-constrained settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Delayed diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis (TB) among individuals suspected of having TB may lead to continued transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in communities, higher mortality rates, and increase in government health expenditure because of prolonged illness due to late diagnosis and treatment initiation. The study explored factors leadingto delayed health care seeking among individuals living in Ntcheu District, Malawi. Two key informant interviews, 16 in-depth interviews, and three focus group discussions were conducted. Participants were aged 18 years and older and never had TB. Data were analyzed using content analysis and factors were identified: inadequate knowledge about cause and transmission of TB, low self-awareness of personal risk to TB, cultural and traditional beliefs about sources of TB, stigma, and strong belief in witchcraft as a cause of illness. The TB Control Program needs to invest in social mobilization and education of communities to mitigate early health care seeking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates inequalities at the province level of the use of modern contraception and the proportion of short birth intervals among women in the DRC using data from the 2007 Demographic and Health Survey. Logistic regression and Bayesian geo-additive models were used. The posterior odds ratio and the associated 95% credible interval (95% CI) were estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Posterior spatial effects were mapped at the province level with the associated posterior probability maps showing statistical significance at 5%. The overall rates of modern contraception use among the entire sample of women (15–49 years old; N=7172) and youth (15–24 years old; N=1389) were 5.7% and 6.0% respectively. However, there was striking variation in contraceptive use between the two groups across provinces with a clear east-to-west gradient. The highest use in the total sample was in Nord-Kivu (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.12, 1.55) and Bas Congo provinces (1.47; 1.22, 1.78). For the youth, the highest use was observed in Nord-Kivu (1.19; 0.92, 1.65). In multivariate Bayesian geo-additive regression analyses among the entire sample of women, factors consistently associated with lower use of modern contraception were living in rural areas (0.71; 0.62, 0.82), living in low-income households (0.67; 0.54, 0.80) and having no education (0.83; 0.67, 0.97). For the youth sample, living in low-income households (0.57; 0.41, 0.84) and no breast-feeding (0.64; 0.47, 0.86) were consistently associated with a lower use of modern contraception. The study shows a distinct geographic pattern in the use of modern contraception in youth and the entire sample of women in the DRC, suggesting a potential role for socioeconomic factors, such as accessibility, affordability and availability, as well as environmental factors at the province level beyond individual-level risk factors. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background South Africa has a high and rising prevalence of hypertension. Many affected individuals are not using medication, and few have controlled blood pressure. Until recently, primary care clinics focused on maternal and child health and management of acute conditions, but new government initiatives have shifted the focus to chronic diseases, including HIV/AIDS and hypertension. Methods/Design The Nkateko trial will test the effectiveness of clinic-based lay health workers (LHWs) in supporting hypertension management. It is a pragmatic, cluster randomised controlled trial based in the Agincourt subdistrict of northeast South Africa, and it is underpinned by longterm health and demographic surveillance. Eight primary care facilities, with their catchment communities, are randomised to usual care or the addition of LHWs focused on chronic care. All clinics (intervention and control) will be provided with a clerk to collect information on clinic attendees and will match them to preexisting surveillance records. Intervention clinics will have LHWs working alongside nursing staff and focusing on health care for people with chronic conditions, particularly hypertension. The LHWs will be supported by an implementation manager, who will work with clinic staff to develop the most effective role for the LHWs. Control clinics will continue to provide usual care. The primary outcome will be the change between two population surveys conducted before and after the intervention in the proportion of the population with uncontrolled hypertension and a risk profile indicating at least moderate risk of cardiovascular disease. A process evaluation will be based on a realist approach using patient exit interviews, clinic observations and interviews with health professionals, LHWs and patients to document the intervention and its implementation. Discussion There are challenges in the design of this trial. Assessing change through population surveys may reduce measurable effects; however, we feel this is appropriate because we aim to attract those who currently do not use clinics, and we hope to improve care for clinic users. Clinics were randomised at an open meeting because we were concerned that a remote process of randomisation would not be trusted by the community. We are constantly working to achieve an effective balance between the intervention and process evaluations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Nurses constitute the majority of the health workforce in South Africa and they play a major role in providing primary health care (PHC) services. Job satisfaction influences nurse retention and successful implementation of health system reforms. This study was conducted in light of renewed government commitment to reforms at the PHC level, and to contribute to the development of solutions to the challenges faced by the South African nursing workforce. The objective of the study was to determine overall job satisfaction of PHC clinic nursing managers and the predictors of their job satisfaction in two South African provinces.Methods: During 2012, a cross-sectional study was conducted in two South African provinces. Stratified random sampling was used to survey a total of 111 nursing managers working in PHC clinics. These managers completed a pre-tested Measure of Job Satisfaction questionnaire with subscales on personal satisfaction, workload, professional support, training, pay, career prospects and standards of care. Mean scores were used to measure overall job satisfaction and various subscales. Predictors of job satisfaction were determined through multiple logistic regression analysis.Results: A total of 108 nursing managers completed the survey representing a 97% response rate. The mean age of respondents was 49 years (SD = 7.9) and the majority of them (92%) were female. Seventy-six percent had a PHC clinical training qualification. Overall mean job satisfaction scores were 142.80 (SD = 24.3) and 143.41 (SD = 25.6) for Gauteng and Free State provinces respectively out of a maximum possible score of 215. Predictors of job satisfaction were: working in a clinic of choice (RRR = 3.10 (95% CI: 1.11 to 8.62, P = 0.030)), being tired at work (RRR = 0.19 (95% CI: 0.08 to 0.50, P = 0.001)) and experience of verbal abuse (RRR = 0.18 (95% CI: 0.06 to 0.55, P = 0.001).Conclusion: Allowing nurses greater choice of clinic to work in, the prevention of violence and addressing workloads could improve the practice environment and job satisfaction of PHC clinic nursing managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Research in the predictors of all-cause mortality in HIV-infected people has widely been reported in literature. Making an informed decision requires understanding the methods used. Objectives: We present a review on study designs, statistical methods and their appropriateness in original articles reporting on predictors of all-cause mortality in HIV-infected people between January 2002 and December 2011. Statistical methods were compared between 2002–2006 and 2007–2011. Time-to-event analysis techniques were considered appropriate. Data Sources: Pubmed/Medline. Study Eligibility Criteria: Original English-language articles were abstracted. Letters to the editor, editorials, reviews, systematic reviews, meta-analysis, case reports and any other ineligible articles were excluded. Results: A total of 189 studies were identified (n = 91 in 2002–2006 and n = 98 in 2007–2011) out of which 130 (69%) were prospective and 56 (30%) were retrospective. One hundred and eighty-two (96%) studies described their sample using descriptive statistics while 32 (17%) made comparisons using t-tests. Kaplan-Meier methods for time-to-event analysis were commonly used in the earlier period (n = 69, 76% vs. n = 53, 54%, p = 0.002). Predictors of mortality in the two periods were commonly determined using Cox regression analysis (n = 67, 75% vs. n = 63, 64%, p = 0.12). Only 7 (4%) used advanced survival analysis methods of Cox regression analysis with frailty in which 6 (3%) were used in the later period. Thirty-two (17%) used logistic regression while 8 (4%) used other methods. There were significantly more articles from the first period using appropriate methods compared to the second (n = 80, 88% vs. n = 69, 70%, p-value = 0.003). Conclusion: Descriptive statistics and survival analysis techniques remain the most common methods of analysis in publications on predictors of all-cause mortality in HIV-infected cohorts while prospective research designs are favoured. Sophisticated techniques of time-dependent Cox regression and Cox regression with frailty are scarce. This motivates for more training in the use of advanced time-to-event methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Factors associated with mortality in HIV-infected people in sub-Saharan Africa are widely reported. However ruralurban disparities and their association with all-cause mortality remain unclear. Furthermore, commonly used classical Cox regression ignores unmeasured variables and frailty. Objective: To incorporate frailty in assessing factors associated with mortality in HIV-infected people in rural and urban South Africa. Design: Using data from a prospective cohort following 6,690 HIV-infected participants from Soweto (urban) and Mpumalanga (rural) enrolled from 2003 to 2010; covariates of mortality were assessed by the integrated nested Laplace approximation method. Results: We enrolled 2,221 (33%) rural and 4,469 (67%) urban participants of whom 1,555 (70%) and 3,480 (78%) were females respectively. Median age (IQR) was 36.4 (31.0-44.1) in rural and 32.7 (28.2-38.1) in the urban participants. The mortality rate per 100 person-years was 11 (9.7-12.5) and 4 (3.6-4.5) in the rural and urban participants, respectively. Compared to those not on HAART, rural participants had a reduced risk of mortality if on HAART for 6-12 (HR: 0.20, 95% CI: 0.10-0.39) and >12 months (HR: 0.10, 95% CI: 0.05-0.18). Relative to those not on HAART, urban participants had a lower risk if on HAART >12 months (HR: 0.35, 95% CI: 0.27-0.46). The frailty variance was significant and >1 in rural participants indicating more heterogeneity. Similarly it was significant but <1 in the urban participants indicating less heterogeneity. Conclusion: The frailty model findings suggest an elevated risk of mortality in rural participants relative to the urban participants potentially due to unmeasured variables that could be biological, socioeconomic, or healthcare related. Use of robust methods that optimise data and account for unmeasured variables could be helpful in assessing the effect of unknown risk factors thus improving patient management and care in South Africa and elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall extremes often result in the occurrence of flood events with associated loss of life and infrastructure in Malawi. However, an understanding of the frequency of occurrence of such extreme events either for design or disaster planning purposes is often limited by data availability at the desired temporal and spatial scales. Regionalisation, which involves 'trading time for space' by pooling together observations for stations with similar behavior, is an alternative approach for more accurate determination of extreme events even at ungauged areas or sites with short records. In this study, regional frequency analysis of rainfall extremes in Southern Malawi, large parts of which are flood prone, was undertaken. Observed 1-, 3-, 5- and 7-day annual maximum rainfall series for the period 1978-2007 at 23 selected rainfall stations in Southern Malawi were analysed. Cluster analysis using scaled at-site characteristics was used to determine homogeneous rainfall regions. L-moments were applied to derive regional index rainfall quantiles. The procedure also validated the three rainfall regions identified through homogeneity and heterogeneity tests based on Monte Carlo simulations with regional average L-moment ratios fitted to the Kappa distribution. Based on assessments of the accuracy of the derived index rainfall quantiles, it was concluded that the performance of this regional approach was satisfactory when validated for sites not included in the sample data. The study provides an estimate of the regional characteristics of rainfall extremes that can be useful in among others flood mitigation and engineering design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A feasibility study was conducted to investigate whether an occupational at-risk cohort of women in Mwanza, Tanzania are a suitable study population for future phase III vaginal microbicide trials. Methodology/Principal Findings: 1573 women aged 16-54 y working in traditional and modern bars, restaurants, hotels, guesthouses or as local food-handlers were enrolled at community-based reproductive health clinics, provided specimens for HIV/STI and pregnancy testing, and asked to attend three-monthly clinical follow-up visits for 12-months. HIV positive and negative women were eligible to enter the feasibility study and to receive free reproductive health services at any time. HIV prevalence at baseline was 26.5% (417/1573). HIV incidence among 1156 sero-negative women attending at baseline was 2.9/100PYs. Among 1020 HIV sero-negative, non-pregnant women, HIV incidence was 2.0/100PYs, HSV-2 incidence 12.7/100PYs and pregnancy rate 17.8/100PYs. Retention at three-months was 76.3% (778/1020). Among 771 HIV seronegative, non-pregnant women attending at three-months, subsequent follow-up at 6, 9 and 12-months was 83.7%, 79.6%, and 72.1% respectively. Older women, those who had not moved home or changed their place of work in the last year, and women working in traditional bars or as local food handlers had the highest re-attendance. Conclusions/Significance: Women working in food outlets and recreational facilities in Tanzania and other parts of Africa may be a suitable study population for microbicide and other HIV prevention trials. Effective locally-appropriate strategies to address high pregnancy rates and early losses to follow-up are essential to minimise risk to clinical trials in these settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]