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We examine the performance of rolling windows procedures in forecasting inflation. We implement rolling windows augmented Dickey--Fuller (ADF) tests and then conduct a set of Monte Carlo experiments under stylized forms of structural breaks. We find that as long as the nature of inflation is either stationary or non-stationary, popular varying-length window techniques provide little advantage in forecasting over a conventional fixed-length window approach. However, we also find that varying-length window techniques tend to outperform the fixed-length window method under conditions involving a change in the inflation process from stationary to non-stationary, and vice versa. Finally, we investigate methods that can provide early warnings of structural breaks, a situation for which the available rolling windows procedures are not well suited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of the considerations presented in the paper was to examine the changes that occurred in both population and GDP size and in selected economic sectors as a result of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the highlighted EU regions. Design/methodology/approach: The paper examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the population of selected EU regions, GDP in those regions, and the impact of the pandemic on the unemployment rate, the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion, the number of nights spent in overnight accommodations, the number of passengers traveling by air, the number of people who ordered goods or services online in the past year, and employment in high-tech sectors. The impact was examined by analyzing development trend models for selected variables and verifying the hypothesis of constancy of model parameters with the Chow test. Predictions of selected variables were also counted if there had been no pandemic and compared to actual values from the COVID-19 pandemic period. Findings: Not all regions were equally affected by the effects of the pandemic. This was undoubtedly influenced by the authorities' struggle with the effects of the pandemic, but also by the entrepreneurial spirit of the residents of the regions studied. Also in different spheres of economic life, the effects of the pandemic varied from negative to positive. Research limitations/implications: Further research should also include the other EU regions and more economic sectors, allowing us to group regions according to similarities in coping with the pandemic and calculate spatial correlations. A problem we may encounter is the lack of sufficient data, which may result in the exclusion of some regions and economic sectors from the study. Social implications: Through the research, we can highlight regions that are coping better with the effects of a pandemic, and this can inspire regions that are coping less well. In the future, regions can look up to the actions carried out by authorities in other regions to offset the effects of pandemics (or other disasters with global effects) and transfer them to their own region. Originality/value: The article compares regions within the boundaries of which are national capitals. It was shown which region did best in combating the effects of the pandemic and which did less well. The article also shows what the impact of the pandemic was on the various branches of the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Properties of stock returns have always been an integral aspect in asset allocation and portfolio management. More specifically, the dynamic nature of stock returns, provides nuanced patterns that highlight the inherent complexity of financial markets. The aim of this study was to explore the time varying properties of stock returns in international markets. A GARCH and Chow Test was used for four financial markets from June 04, 2018, to June 04, 2023. The findings revealed that stock returns exhibit time-dependent behaviour, challenging traditional assumptions of constant parameters with distinct phases of volatility clustering, illustrated by periods of heightened market turbulence followed by relative calmness. Additionally, the study revealed a shift in structural breaks which provided valuable insights into the evolving relationships between stock returns. These findings have significant implications for investment strategies, risk management, and financial modelling as recognizing the evolving nature of stock returns allows for more robust portfolio construction and improved decision-making in an ever-changing financial landscape.

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between fintech investments and financial performance, and it explores whether the bank size could influence the performance in the context of the digital transformation (digitization). The fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) model is estimated for 23 European banks throughout the whole period ranging from 2010 to 2019 and for the two sub-periods spanning from 2010 to 2014 and from 2015 to 2019. The econometric results evince that fintech are positively and significantly related to the bank profitability, inferring that the greater the digital engagement of banks is, the higher the profitability is. Our findings provide evidence that the bank size is a moderator factor in affecting the relationship between digital investments and the profitability. Hence, larger banks benefit more from investments in the financial technology so as to improve their performance. Our study has substantial policy implications as we suggest that the increased investment in the fintech is a possible channel through which banks improve their performance, particularly when the bank size is considered large. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Properties of stock returns have always been an integral aspect in asset allocation and portfolio management. More specifically, the dynamic nature of stock returns, provides nuanced patterns that highlight the inherent complexity of financial markets. The aim of this study was to explore the time varying properties of stock returns in international markets. A GARCH and Chow Test was used for four financial markets from June 04, 2018, to June 04, 2023. The findings revealed that stock returns exhibit timedependent behaviour, challenging traditional assumptions of constant parameters with distinct phases of volatility clustering, illustrated by periods of heightened market turbulence followed by relative calmness. Additionally, the study revealed a shift in structural breaks which provided valuable insights into the evolving relationships between stock returns. These findings have significant implications for investment strategies, risk management, and financial modelling as recognizing the evolving nature of stock returns allows for more robust portfolio construction and improved decision-making in an ever-changing financial landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this communication, Earth temperature series in air and soil are analyzed and features that become convoluted with the known earth cycles of day-night and its orbit around the sun are separated. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are also considered. Earth weather changes (e.g., cloud, wind, rain, polar jet streams, and atmospheric pressure) in real time affect daily temperatures in a complex manner. A statistical model that accounts for autocorrelation and linear trend is evaluated together with empirical description of the series. Further graphical analysis is used to enhance remaining features and extreme events. Gaussian bell-shaped curve modeling of each year's daily profile is described. Further, Gaussian parameter-based anomalies are introduced together with soil anomalies at 30 cm depth. Semi-variogram components are shown along with folded percentile or mountain plots for data visualization. The Chow test is described for detection of any structural changes in data series. For much of the statistical analysis, temperatures observed daily are most appropriate because they carry variation due to earth, sea and sky weather over a single day-night earth rotation cycle. Also, the ever changing earth position along its orbital path captures a varying amount of solar energy, hence the shape of the temperature cycle as one sees it. Human activity and climate changing factors appear to affect temperature cycles within and over years. A double bell-shaped Gaussian curve fit can indicate climate changing effects of Earth life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the article is to analyze the stability of beta coefficients of companies listed in WIG-ESG. There are many studies on the stability of companies' systematic risk, but the literature and research lack an analysis of the stability of the beta coefficient for ESG companies. We examined beta coefficients for 57 companies listed in WIG-ESG, established for sets of daily rates of return between September 3, 2019, to June 6, 2022 (period including COVID-19 crisis and asset price inflation, Russian invasion of Ukraine). We estimate the beta coefficient for the whole as a result of which we obtain the average value of the beta coefficient over the entire analyzed period, and subperiods with fixed length rolling window, resulting in a time series of beta coefficients. To assess beta stability, we used the Chow test with the F statistic, the Cusum test based on generalized fluctuations test framework, and the Wald-Wolfowitz runs test of randomness around the mean for the time series beta coefficients obtained in the rolling window. The considered tests argue for the instability of the time series of beta coefficients in most of the companies tested: 93% short-term instability cases confirmed by the Chow test, 100% short-term instability cases confirmed by the Wald-Wolfowitz runs test. The paper is an initial attempt to bridge the gap that presently exists between the theoretical and empirical literature on the stability of ESG companies' systematic risk. It cannot be ruled out (hypothesis) that the beta coefficient for companies listed in the WIG-ESG index is/will be stable over longer periods of time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest certification is a tool contributing to the achievement of sustainable and responsible forest management. It also presents consumers with a market to purchase products coming from responsibly managed forests and provides forest managers with improved market access for their products. Even if forest certification incurs higher costs that affect the sale price, consumers generally have a greater willingness to pay more for certified products than for uncertified products. The objective of this study is to analyze the changes in the sales prices of oak and beech log in auction sales occurring during certified and uncertified periods at Demirköy Forest Enterprise, which received an FSC Certificate in 2014. For this aim, the Chow test was used and linear regression models were developed. It was found that the log sales prices of certified and uncertified periods are statistically different from each other at p = 0.05 significance level. As a consequence, it was determined that there was an increase in price of approximately 12% for oak and 19% for beech at log sales after certification. This study deals with only part of the economic impact of certification. The results can contribute to the forest certification database in order to support the decision-makers (managers and wood manufacturers) in their strategic decisions. The study will enable the forestry sector to see the possible reflections of certification practices in the country and the world markets. The effect of certification should be further investigated by including other factors (supply-demand situation of the forest industry, sales of neighboring enterprises, market conditions, etc.) affecting log sales prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a series of papers, we suggested a non-statistical method for the detection of structural breaks in a time series. It is based on the applications of special fuzzy modeling methods, namely Fuzzy transform (F-transform) and selected methods of Fuzzy Natural Logic (FNL). In this paper, we combine our method with the principles of the classical Chow test, which is a well-known statistical method for testing the presence of a structural break. The idea is to construct testing statistics similar to that of the Chow test which is formed from components of the first-degree F-transform. These components contain an estimation of the average values of the tangents (slopes) of the time series over an imprecisely specified time interval. In this paper, we illustrate our method and its statistical test on a real-time series and compare it with three classical statistical methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Structural breaks are important stylized facts that should be included in the analysis of security market returns. Predictions on stock markets are susceptible to variations in economic events which may not materialise with the passage of time. Accordingly, improving the accuracy of stock market forecasts should embed to a larger extent unobserved heterogeneity which explains structural breaks. Therefore, the aim of this study was to explore structural breaks in asset returns which makes forecasting very difficult. Using the chow and CUSUM square test and a sample period from January 02, 2018 to January 2, 2023, the findings revealed that structural breaks varies across financial markets. More specifically, the Nasdaq and Nikkei 225 displayed significant breaks. However, no significant breaks were observed in the JSE, CAC and DAX. In the BIST, the breaks were insignificant at 5% but significant at 10% confidence level. The implication of this study is that there is a high probability that forecasting the performance of the Nasdaq and Nikkei 225 will not realise and we expect to see volatility persistence in these markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Households are economic actors that play a significant role in the economic condition. Thus, households’ consumption expenditures are a variable that deserves a through analysis in an economy. This study aims to identify the impact of financial technology on household consumption by using the theory of the absolute income hypothesis. We use the partial adjustment model (PAM) approach and the Chow test to detect the structural change on households’ consumption function in Indonesia with the observation period of 1990–2017. The results demonstrate that Indonesian households’consumption function exhibits structural change because of the development of financial technology 3.0 era that started in 2000. Besides, the partial adjustment model also suggests that financial technology positively affects Indonesian households’consumption in both short-run and long-run. The findings imply that on the one hand, the findings are a positive signal to rely on finteh as the factor that encourages economic growth in Indonesia. On the other hand, the results indicate that fintech motivates the public to be more consumptive that will potentially lead to higher inflation rates.

This study proposes a simple, trustworthy Chow test in the presence of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. The test is based on a series heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation robust variance estimator with judiciously crafted basis functions. Like the Chow test in a classical normal linear regression, the proposed test employs the standard F distribution as the reference distribution, which is justified under fixed-smoothing asymptotics. Monte Carlo simulations show that the null rejection probability of the asymptotic F test is closer to the nominal level than that of the chi-square test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new approach – based on structural break detection in SCADA data – for condition monitoring and fault diagnosis of wind turbines. Chow test – a commonly used testing method for structural breaks in economic and financial data – has been adapted for this purpose. A five-step Chow's test-based computation procedure is proposed. The method is applied for condition monitoring of a wind turbine drivetrain with a nominal power of 2 MW using temperature-related SCADA data. A multiple linear regression model is formed using gearbox and generator temperature data as the independent variables and generator speed data as the dependent variable. The Chow test is used to assess the stability of regression coefficients in the model. Any coefficient instability means a structural change in the regression model, which can be interpreted as the occurrence of a fault in the wind turbine. The scheme used to detect structural changes is based on control charts, where sequences of the calculated probability (p-values) are plotted together with the critical line, defined by the significance level. The method is validated using two known fault events. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively monitor the wind turbine and reliably detect abnormal problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Households are economic actors that play a significant role in the economic condition. Thus, households’ consumption expenditures are a variable that deserves a through analysis in an economy. This study aims to identify the impact of financial technology on household consumption by using the theory of the absolute income hypothesis. We use the partial adjustment model (PAM) approach and the Chow test to detect the structural change on households’ consumption function in Indonesia with the observation period of 1990–2017. The results demonstrate that Indonesian households’ consumption function exhibits structural change because of the development of financial technology 3.0 era that started in 2000. Besides, the partial adjustment model also suggests that financial technology positively affects Indonesian households’ consumption in both short-run and long-run. The findings imply that on the one hand, the findings are a positive signal to rely on finteh as the factor that encourages economic growth in Indonesia. On the other hand, the results indicate that fintech motivates the public to be more consumptive that will potentially lead to higher inflation rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few studies have considered the information in the frequency domain to detect the structural breaks in financial markets. This paper provides a mixed model that integrates BEMD, AFD and Chow test to study the fluctuation characteristics of the soybean futures price. Due to the application of AFD, the mixed model can detect the structural breaks of the price fluctuation through obtaining the high-resolution information in the frequency domain. According to our results, in general, the soybean futures price in China is mainly determined by IMF11, followed by IMF9, IMF8 and IMF7, and there exist many structural breaks of different IMFs. Interestingly, national macro-controls have opposite effects at IMF8 and IMF11. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed mixed model for detecting structural breaks of financial markets in frequency-domain by revealing the impact of external events on the soybean futures price at multi-scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article is aimed at researching the issue of Ukraine’s place in the world rankings in terms of the GDP level, welfare index and happiness index; building the productive function of our country’s economy and providing on this basis recommendations to improve the economic growth policy. In order to carry out the research, the article uses scientific methods of formal logic, in particular analysis and synthesis – to compare the characteristics and differences in development of the countries that appear opposite according to the world ratings of the GDP level, wealth index and happiness index. Based on the carried out analysis of the current tendencies of the economic growth in these countries, in particular Ukraine, conclusions have been drawn about the causes of their developmental polarity. The publication uses statistical and econometric methods, specifically, analysis of the structural characterizations of countries, which are supplemented by the indicators of population differentiation; regression analysis in the formation of the production function of Ukrainian economy of similar type as Cobb-Douglas and in the GDP forecasting for the short term; the Chow method is applied to evaluate the stability of the regression model parameters and to verify the presence of structural shifts in the sample. As for the clear problems of Ukraine’s economic development, which can hinder the process of growth, the following ones have been allocated: the long conflict in the eastern part of the country and political instability; economic income inequality; development of economy takes place mainly by means of extensive factors. The carried out calculations show that the GDP growth will continue in Ukraine in the coming years.

This article presents the research results on Mutual Recognition Agreement effect on the volume of exports – imports of the countries (parties) in the context of the EU – Israel Mutual Recognition Agreement. The authors used the Chow test to obtain the results. The article shows that there is no good reason to believe that Mutual Recognition Agreements boost the volume of mutual trade, at least, of pharmaceutical products. In other words, Mutual Recognition Agreements do not contribute to the growth in the number of exporters. It is concluded that the primary effect of such agreements is to facilitate conformity assessment procedures.

Pertumbuhan perbankan syariah pasca diterbitkannya Undang-undang Nomor 10 tahun 1998 sangat signifikan, yang sebelumnya hanya ada satu bank syariah yaitu BMI pada tahun 1992. Menjamurnya bank-bank syariah di tengah-tengah masyarakat muslim di Indonesia diharapkan mampu memberikan perubahan yang signifikan terhadap permasalahan yang melanda masyarakat Indonesia yaitu kemiskinan dan berbagai macam kesenjangan sosial lainnya. Dengan demikian, sebagai perbankan yang berbasis Islam, tentu seharusnya bank syariah memberikan keseimbangan antara prestasi bank syariah dalam hal ini diketahui melalui tingkat kesehatan bank syariah dengan kontribusi sosial. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui kondisi kesehatan keuangan bank syariah, kondisi kontribusi sosial bank syariah dan menganalisis keterpengaruhan antara kesehatan keuangan bank syariah dengan kontribusi sosial bank syariah. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis deskriptif kuantitatif. Objek penelitian ini adalah 3 (tiga) bank umum syariah yaitu Bank Muamalat Indonesia (BMI), Bank Syariah Mandiri (BSM) dan Bank Mega Syariah Indonesia (BMSI). Periode penelitian ini selama 7 (tujuh) tahun dari tahun 2004 sampai 2010. Melalui analisis deskriptif diketahui bahwa secara umum kesehatan bank syariah dalam kondisi sehat dengan BMI mendapat nilai kredit tertinggi sebesar 97,14 selanjutnya BMSI dan BSM mendapat nilai kredit 89,31 dan 85,48. Sedangkan kontribusi sosial bank syariah secara umum dalam kondisi cukup baik, BSM mendapat nilai kredit tertinggi sebesar 71,85 selanjutnya BMSI dan BMI dengan masing-masing nilai kredit sebesar 68,35 dan 68,07. Analisis data yang digunakan adalah analisis regresi data panel dengan 3 (tiga) metode pendekatan yaitu Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (PLS), Fixed Effect Methode (FEM) dan Random Effect Methode (REM). Melalui pemilihan model dengan Chow Test dan Hausman Test dihasilkan model yang paling efektif adalah metode PLS. Berdasarkan metode PLS dilakukan uji t, diketahui bahwa variabel independen (kesehatan keuangan bank syariah) tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel dependen (kontribusi sosial bank syariah) berdasarkan t-statistik 1,80 < t-tabel 2.09 pada tingkat signifikansi = 5%. Koefesien determinasi R2 menunjukkan bahwa variabel independen kesehatan keuangan bank syariah mampu menjelaskan variasi kontribusi sosial bank syariah sebesar 14% sisanya sebesar 86% dijelaskan oleh variabel lain (error term) yang tidak dimasukkan didalam persamaan model ini.

This research aims to analyze the influence of Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR), Non Performing Financing (NPF), Operating Expens-es to Operating Income (OEOI), Firm Size toward Return On Asset (ROA). The object of this research are Islamic Bank in Indonesia and Islamic Bank in Malaysia in 2010-2015. Another aim is to determine whether there are differences in effects of FDR, NPF, OEOI and size toward ROA between Islamic Bank in Indonesia and Islamic Bank in Malaysia. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to test the hypothesis in this study. Chow test is used to determine the differ-ences in the effect. The results of this study concluded that FDR, NPF, OEOI and Size effect on ROA simultaneously, both at Indone-sian Islamic Bank and Malaysian Islamic Bank. In Indonesian Islamic Bank, independent variables that influence toward ROA are FDR, OEOI and Size. In Malaysia Islamic Bank, only OEOA wich affecting toward ROA. Based on the chow test, can be concluded that there is a significant difference between the Indonesian Islamic Bank and Malaysian Islamic Bank. Results of independent t test showed that the average variable that has a different effect between Indonesia Islamic Banks and Malaysia Islamic Banks is Size

This paper applies the econometric Chow test to determine the impact of the recent oil price decline on the GCC banking system for the period 2011–2017. Structural breaks in the performance of selected sample GCC banks, Saudi, UAE, and Qatar banks, are tested upon the occurrence of the recent oil price decline in 2014 for different aspects of bank performance: profitability, liquidity, credit quality, and capitalization. While Qatar banks are found to be resilient showing continuous performance over time, the Saudi banks are found to be significantly impacted by the decline experiencing negative structural breaks at the credit quality level but positive breaks at the capitalization level. However, UAE banks are found to have experienced negative breaks at the profitability, credit quality, and capitalization levels. The paper provides GCC banks with valuable insights about what bank aspects could be negatively impacted in the event of negative oil price shocks and what aspects could help mitigate the impact. This helps banks introduce necessary changes and preventive actions to better absorb future shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of socioeconomic characteristics as well as the farm size of wheat productivity in district Peshawar. Wheat is the main staple food item of the country's population and the largest grain crop as well. Pakistan has been regularly importing wheat, except for the few years. This study is based on primary data collected in 2019 from district Peshawar.A sample of 200 (160 large and 40 small) wheat growers weretaken from twelve selected villages of Peshawar. An unpaired t-test was used to test the differences in the socioeconomic factors and farm sizes on the wheat production. Chow test were used for structural differences and dummy variable were introduced in the production function to test any significant productivity differentials (if any) between two farm groups. A significant difference was found awing to the socioeconomic factors of two farm groups. Moreover, the Chow F-Ratio confirmed the differences between small and large farms in terms of yield. The statistical value of dummy variable posted higher productivity for the large farms (almost 14%). Hence, results call for higher attention to be diverted to small farms as majority of land owners in Peshawar. The farmer's have small holdings and lack of adequate access to inputs, agriculture credit and extension services left them technically inefficient. In addition, it is suggested that government and private sector should initiate programs to educate and train the farmers in order to bring advance techniques or improve theirconventional agriculture practices to increase wheat productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the statistical analysis of experimental results of radiation-induced critical brittle temperature ΔTF shifts and reference temperatures ΔT0 obtained respectively from the impact bend and fracture toughness tests of the reactor vessel metal surveillance specimens to define the possibility of their mutual application for the irradiation embrittlement coefficient to be determined more accurately. The correlation between these parameters is shown to remain up to the accumulation of over-design fast neutron fluence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The introduction of the euro for Croatian citizens meant the abandonment of the deutsche mark, a reliable currency, which had been used for a long time for comparison purposes and savings. Today, Croatia is a small, opened, indebted and highly euroised country, in which frequently mentioned introduction of euro is seen as a solution that could improve country’s economic position. The question of a common monetary policy is closely related to the issue of business cycle coherence between the members of such an area. By analyzing two measures of business cycle coherence, namely synchronicity and similarity, between Croatia and new EMU members, we want to reconcile with vast empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis that monetary integration process results from a greater business cycle convergence and leads to an optimal currency area which finally leads to greater economic welfare in each of the member countries. Estimations are based on deviation cycle approach. Results in general indicate relatively similar cycle dynamics across the observed variables, suggesting that Croatia satisfies this selective criterion for its inclusion into the monetary union. Nonetheless, monetary integration is far more complicated issue, hence it requires further scientific verification and conceptualization.

Consumers do perceive risk in purchase decisions and seek to reduce both uncertainty and probability of loss. Risk also varies across persons and purchasing situations. Retailers promote product guarantees as risk reducers, but the quantitative evidence is lacking. They offer guarantees to help resolve outcomes from post-purchase problems mainly, product performance. We used an online survey to investigate the role of risk mitigation by money-back guarantees (MBGs) on a live product: plants. We obtained online responses from 504 US residents ≥ age 18 years who had made at least one live plant purchase in the six months prior to the study. As MBG length increased, perceived risk (PR) decreased. PR was higher for men than for women and declined as income increased. Subjects with a higher level of product involvement, expertise, delight, repurchase intentions, and regret had a higher level of PR. We conducted separate Chow tests for annual and perennial plants by price and MBG length and found several break points. As price increased from $5 to $10, a 30-d MBG reduced PR for annual plants while the reduction in PR was incrementally decreased for all guarantee lengths when annuals were priced over $20. With perennial plants, the MBG had an increasingly larger effect on reducing PR for each $10 increase in price. Overall, for each day increase in MBG length, we observed a 0.0337 decrease in PR, which meant that a 90-d MBG on a plant would reduce PR by 3%. This quantitative evidence of reduction in PR should encourage the use and communication of MBGs which have the potential to improve purchases, customer retention, and profitability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most previous research did not find powerful evidence suggesting the depreciation of Chinese yuan had contributed significantly to the trade imbalances between the United States and China. In our current study, we employ quarterly data from 2005Q3 to 2018Q3 and an error correction model to examine the responsiveness of bilateral trade flows between the United States and China to relative prices and the nominal exchange rate under China's managed floating exchange rate regime. To test for a possible structural break due to the financial crisis in 2008, we carry out Chow tests. But the results support no structural break. We find strong evidence that depreciation of Chinese currency yuan encourages U.S. imports from China and discourages U.S. exports to China. In addition, an increase in U.S. income will promote U.S. imports from China significantly, and a higher Chinese income will remarkably encourage U.S. exports to China. Finally, the bilateral trade flows between the United States and China respond differently to the relative prices and nominal exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to achieve the research objectives, study period has been split into two periods; a pre-2008 crisis period (2000-2007), which is the period prior to the burst of the global financial crises, and a post-2008 crisis period (2008-2016), which is the period after the global financial crises. Chow test has been applied to measure economic impacts on the study variables. The research also applied econometric analysis by building up a Simultaneous Equations Model in order to measure interactions and overlaps between the study variables using Three Stage Least Square (3SLS), in addition to employing Partial Equilibrium Model to identify imbalances in prices and to assess the value of subsidy received by or taxes imposed on potato producers and consumers in Egypt, The results show through applying F-Chow test statistics to total production revealed no statistically significant difference between the two study periods (2000-2007 and 2008-2016), indicating no break between the two periods. However, when applied to consumption, results revealed a statistically significant difference between the two study periods, indicating a break between the two periods. Findings also revealed that average nominal protection coefficient for potato reached 0.868 during the first period, but declined to 0.842 during the second period, down by 37.83%, which means that potato producers received 87.6% and 84.2% of their product's value in world price over the two periods, respectively, indicating that the government has been imposing taxes on potato producers to subsidize domestic consumers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the actual self congruity and the ideal self congruity on positive attitudes toward city through fictitious city brand experiments. Additionally, the moderating role of city brand personality in relationship between brand-self congruity and positive attitudes are examined. This research conducted a survey after developing scenarios of two city brand personality. Frequency analysis to identify the characteristics of respondents, t-test to check the experimental manipulation, multiple regression analysis and chow test for hypothesis testing were performed through the SPSS Statistics 21 program. The self congruity of city brand had significant effects on attitudes toward city, but the moderating role of city brand personality was not significant. Theoretical and managerial implications of the findings were discussed and self congruity is an important variable in brand-consumer relationship in city brand. Finally, limitations of this study and future research directions were discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Birdwatching is a tourism activity that relates closely to protected natural spaces and that helps contribute to the balance between economic, social and environmental aspects of sustainability. In some European countries (the United Kingdom, Germany, Holland), this recreational activity has a large number of followers, making it a new segment of tourist demand with great possibilities for growth. The objective of this study is to identify the main characteristics of the demand for birdwatching in one of the European territories having a high resource supply, as is the case with Extremadura (Spain). To do this, a logit modelization has been proposed in order to estimate the probability of going birdwatching in the region, based on a random sample of over 3000 tourists that visited the region in 2017. This characterization of birdwatching demand was carried out using variables such as gender, age, type of travel, type of lodging, and assessment of tourism services. Given that the national and the foreign demand of this tourism modality may present distinct behaviors, and therefore, specific characterizations, a structural change test (Chow test) was also conducted in order to determine to what extent these two segments of demand, based on the source markets, have (or do not have) distinguishing features.

The recent criticism of poor fiscal performance levelled against the democratic regimes in Nigeria has resulted in questions being asked as to the soundness of the acclaim which heralded its advent. Such questions generally focus on the growth impacts of the deficits incurring during this regimes. In view of this, this study examined the relative impact of fiscal deficits on economic growth in Nigeria during the military and democratic regimes. The study employed Chow endogenous break test, unit root and cointegration tests. The results derived from the Chow test analysis reveal that there is a difference between the growth-impact of fiscal deficit in the two regimes. In particular, the study found that fiscal deficits had a significant growth-impact during the military regime, while it has not had a significant impact on economic growth during the democratic regime. On the other hand, the study’s` results indicated that the interest rate did not have a significant growth-impact during both regimes, while the gross fixed capital formation had a significant growth impact during both regimes In view of the findings, the study recommended the strengthening of the country`s budgetary institutions so as to ensure the de-politicization of the budgetary process. Furthermore, the study recommended the reduction in the current lending rate so as to ensure increased access to investment funds by domestic entrepreneurs.

The classical Chow test for structural instability requires strictly exogenousregressors and a break-point specified in advance. In this paper, we consider twogeneralisations, the one-step recursive Chow test (based on the sequence of studentisedrecursive residuals) and its supremum counterpart, which relaxes these requirements. We useresults on the strong consistency of regression estimators to show that the one-step test isappropriate for stationary, unit root or explosive processes modelled in the autoregressivedistributed lags (ADL) framework. We then use the results in extreme value theory to developa new supremum version of the test, suitable for formal testing of structural instability withan unknown break-point. The test assumes the normality of errors and is intended to be usedin situations where this can be either assumed nor established empirically. Simulations showthat the supremum test has desirable power properties, in particular against level shifts latein the sample and against outliers. An application to U.K. GDP data is given.

The main purpose of this paper is to explore differences in the roles played by family, school, and community in the subjective well-being (SWB) of children in different age groups in South Korea. Based on Bronfenbrenner's ecological framework, the contexts that affect children's subjective well-being are conceptualized as family, school, and community. We use multiple regression analysis with the Chow test. The Chow test examines whether the parameters of one group (such as 8-year-old children) are equal to those of other groups (such as 10- or 12-year-old children). The results show that "satisfaction with freedom" in child factors and "relations with friends" in school factors significantly influence SWB, having a stronger effect on 8- rather than 12-year-old children. In contrast, "satisfaction with school marks" in school factors significantly influences SWB, having a stronger effect on 12- rather than 8-year-old children. In a nutshell, this analysis shows that the effects of these factors on the SWB of 8-year-olds are different from those on the SWB of 12-year-olds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) recent reform to consolidate the banking sector through drastic increase to #25billion as minimum capital base of any bank led to a remarkable reduction in the number of banks from 89 to 24 in 2005; changed their mode of operations and their contributions to the nation’s economic development. Drawing on original research on consolidation of banking sector, this study examined the impact of consolidation on performance of Nigerian banks for the period 1999 to 2011. It employed Chow test; a parameter stability test which showed that there was parameter instability after the consolidation. System GMM (generalized methods of moments) estimation was further used to ascertain the directional and magnitudinal (size) impact of consolidation on the banks’ efficiency. With emphasis on earnings per share as a proxy for consolidation, it is inferred that Nigerian banking consolidation exercise did impact their efficiency positively.