Search

Evacuation planning and management represents a key aspect of volcanic crises because it can increase people protection as well as minimize the potential impact on the economy, properties, and infrastructure of the affected area. Assessment of evacuation scenarios that consider human and economic impact is best done in a pre-disaster context as it helps authorities develop evacuation plans and make informed decisions outside the highly stressful time period that characterizes crises. We present an agent-based simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios using Vulcano island (Italy) as a case study. Simulation results show that the overall time needed to evacuate people should be analysed together with the percentage of people evacuated as a function of time and that a simultaneous evacuation on Vulcano is more efficient than a staged evacuation. We also present a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and starting period that reveals that an evacuation of Vulcano would cause significant economic impact to the tourism industry if lasting more than 3 months (in case it was initiated at the beginning of the visitor season) to 1 year (in case it was initiated at the end of the visitor season).

The ensemble of pyroclastic material injected into the atmosphere during explosive volcanic eruptions (i.e., tephra) has the potential to generate complex patterns of disruption at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Reducing associated risk requires a full characterization of the hazards associated with its dispersal, sedimentation, and aeolian remobilization and of various dimensions of vulnerability (e.g., physical, socio-economic, and systemic). Dedicated analytical and numerical models together with sophisticated probabilistic strategies have been developed for the description of the physical processes; however, due to the combination of a low frequency of volcanic eruptions and the infancy of associated risk studies, the characterization of vulnerability is still fragmentary and mostly focused on the physical acute damage. In this context, impact analyses have already provided fundamental insights into the vulnerability of various elements and systems and are essential to identifying important drivers of losses. Strategies of disaster risk reduction in volcanic regions will be effective only after the potential dynamic interaction between the geophysical event and exposed elements are understood and described.

The unprecedented cost of the 2018 eruption in Hawai’i reflects an intersection of disparate physical and social phenomena: widely spaced, highly destructive eruptions, and atypically high population growth. These were linked and the former indirectly drove the latter with unavoidable consequences.

Tsunamis represent significant threats to human life and development in coastal communities. This quantitative study examines the influence of household characteristics on evacuation actions taken by 211 respondents in American Samoa who were at their homes during the 29 September 2009 Mw 8.1 Samoa Islands earthquake and tsunami disaster. Multiple logistic regression analysis of survey data was used to examine the association between evacuation and various household factors. Findings show that increases in distance to shoreline were associated with a slightly decreased likelihood of evacuation, whereas households reporting higher income had an increased probability of evacuation. The response in American Samoa was an effective one, with only 34 fatalities in a tsunami that reached shore in as little as 15 minutes. Consequently, future research should implement more qualitative study designs to identify event and cultural specific determinants of household evacuation behaviour to local tsunamis.

The 28 March to 22 April 1999 eruption of Mount Cameroon volcano in southwest Cameroon occurred from multiple vents along fissures at two sites. Vents opened first at the upper site 1 (2650 m) and were more explosive than vents at the lower site 2 (1500 m), which were more effusive. Earthquakes, lava flows, tephra fall, ballistics and gas emissions affected the volcano's west and south flanks, including forests, plantations, stock animals, water supplies, coastal communities and their people. Through an analysis of existing published data and new interview data, we provide an overview of the environmental, social and economic consequences of these hazards on infrastructure, human health, and socio-economic and agricultural activities of the four coastal communities most affected by the eruption: Batoke, Bakingili, Debundscha and Idenau. The collected data provide a more detailed description of the short- and long-term direct and indirect effects of the eruption and response than has been provided to date. Sedimentation of tephra and ballistics from site 1 produced both short-term and long-lasting impacts on people, through the contamination of plants and water supplies, which induced impacts on human health and commercial activities. A ~9.2 km long lava flow erupted from site 2 received significant short-term attention as it severed the only arterial coastal highway, forced the evacuation of some 600 residents of Bakingili, and interrupted commerce between communities. The agricultural sector also suffered due to burning of crops and soils. The only obvious significant benefit of the eruption appears to be that the long lava flow has become a tourist attraction, responsible for bringing in money for food, drink and lodging. However, the long-term cascading effects caused by the hazards have proven to be more severe than the immediate direct and indirect effects during the eruption.

The 2011–2012 Cordon Caulle eruption emitted about 1 km3 of rhyodacitic tephra. Dominant westerly winds in the region caused most of the primary tephra to deposit in neighboring Argentina. In addition to the impact of widespread dispersal and fallout of primary tephra during the eruption, Argentina was also significantly affected by remobilization of the primary ash even several years after the climactic phase of the eruption. In this mixed methods study, we combine aspects of natural and social sciences to characterize the ash resuspension events associated with the 2011–2012 Cordon Caulle deposits and assess the impacts on the Argentinian farming community of Ingeniero Jacobacci in the Patagonian Steppe. Our findings show the primary importance of wind, rainfall and ash availability in controlling the occurrence and persistence of ash resuspension events. The role played by these variables was also reflected in the seasonal distribution of events observed. Regarding the impacts, our results complement those of earlier studies and demonstrate that ash resuspension events can exacerbate the negative impact of primary tephra fallout events from the time of deposition to many years after the eruption. Only after five years has the environment and the farming community begun to show signs of recovery. Our findings also highlight the importance of assessing ash resuspension events in multi-hazard scenarios involving volcanic and hydrometeorologic hazards.

This chapter describes the evaluation of the TsunamiReady™-based educational materials distributed in New Hanover County, North Carolina. The authors evaluate whether educational materials about tsunami risk increased the perception of hazard risk, information, knowledge, and preparedness behaviors. There are three main findings. First, local knowledge of regional hazards remains a strong predictor of changes in attitudes and behavior. Second, educational materials about unlikely hazards have only a moderate impact. Third, information seeking and preparedness behavior is a function of general psychological attributes such as personal risk calculations. The authors argue that a community's hazard experiences and the frequency and severity of hazard events play an important role in receptiveness to educational efforts as well as disaster preparedness. © Wiley Periodicals, Inc., and the American Evaluation Association.

Worldwide, recognition of the growing risk faced by communities in many countries from natural hazard events has stimulated interest in promoting people's capacity to co-exist with often beneficial, but occasionally hazardous, natural processes by encouraging the adoption of preparedness measures. Starting from recognition that levels of hazard preparedness are generally low, this paper examines how people's decisions about hazard mitigation derive from how they interpret the hazards, their relationship with the hazards and the sources of information about hazards. It describes how interpretive processes at the person (outcome expectancy), community (community participation and collective efficacy) and societal (empowerment and trust) level interact to predict levels of hazard preparedness. The data support the argument that the effectiveness of public hazard education strategies community preparedness can be increased by integrating risk management activities with community development strategies. The cr...

In 1960, Kīlauea volcano in Hawaii erupted, destroying most of the village of Kapoho and forcing evacuation of its approximately 300 residents. A large and unprecedented social science survey was undertaken during the eruption to develop an understanding of human behavior, beliefs, and coping strategies among the adult evacuees ( n = 160). Identical studies were also performed in three control towns located at varying distances from the eruption site ( n = 478). During these studies data were collected that characterized ethnic grouping and attitudes toward Hawaiian cultural issues such as belief in Pele and two lava flow mitigation measures—use of barriers and bombs to influence the flow of lava, but the data were never published. Using these forgotten data, we examined the relationship between Hawaiian cultural issues and attitudes toward the use of barriers and bombs as mitigation strategies to protect Kapoho. On average, 72% of respondents favored the construction of earthen barriers to hold back or divert lava and protect Kapoho, but far fewer agreed with the military's use of bombs (14%) to protect Kapoho. In contrast, about one-third of respondents conditionally agreed with the use of bombs. It is suggested that local participation in the bombing strategy may explain the increased conditional acceptance of bombs as a mitigation tool, although this can not be conclusively demonstrated. Belief in Pele and being of Hawaiian ethnicity did not reduce support for the use of barriers, but did reduce support for bombs in both bombing scenarios. The disparity in levels of acceptance of barriers versus bombing and of one bombing strategy versus another suggests that historically public attitudes toward lava flow hazard mitigation strategies were complex. A modern comparative study is needed before the next damaging eruption to inform debates and decisions about whether or not to interfere with the flow of lava. Recent changes in the current eruption of Kīlauea make this a timely topic.

PurposeThere has been a considerable effort over the last decade to increase awareness of the tsunami risk in coastal Washington, USA. However, contemporary research on warning systems spawned by the recent Indian Ocean tsunami tragedy highlights the need for development of an effective tsunami warning system for both residents and transient populations, including visitors and tourists. This study sets out evaluate staff training for emergencies, emergency management exercises (including drills and evacuation), and hazard signage within motels and hotels in Ocean Shores, Washington, USA.Design/methodology/approachData were collected from interviews with reception staff and managers at 18 hotels, motels, and other accommodation establishments.FindingsLevels of staff training and preparedness for tsunami and other hazards were found to be generally very low, although examples of “best practice” were found at a select few establishments. Larger hotels already had orientation or general training programmes set up which had the potential to incorporate future tsunami and hazard training, while smaller “owner‐operator” businesses did not.Research limitations/implicationsSuggestions on how to improve preparedness are discussed, including undertaking training needs analyses and conducting workshops, simulations and employee training to empower both businesses and employees.Originality/valueThis case study provides an insight into the challenges faced by emergency managers and the tourism sector in improving the effectiveness of warning systems in areas with high transient populations.

The devastating southeast Asian tsunami of December 26, 2004 has brought home the destructive consequences of coastal hazards in an absence of effective warning systems. Since the 1946 tsunami that destroyed much of Hilo, Hawai‘i, a network of pole mounted sirens has been used to provide an early public alert of future tsunamis. However, studies in the 1960s showed that understanding of the meaning of siren soundings was very low and that ambiguity in understanding had contributed to fatalities in the 1960 tsunami that again destroyed much of Hilo. The Hawaiian public has since been exposed to monthly tests of the sirens for more than 25 years and descriptions of the system have been widely published in telephone books for at least 45 years. However, currently there remains some uncertainty in the level of public understanding of the sirens and their implications for behavioral response. Here, we show from recent surveys of Hawai‘i residents that awareness of the siren tests and test frequency is high, but these factors do not equate with increased understanding of the meaning of the siren, which remains disturbingly low (13%). Furthermore, the length of time people have lived in Hawai‘i is not correlated systematically with understanding of the meaning of the sirens.

Natural warning signs of tsunamis include ground shaking from earthquakes and unusual sea-level fluctuations, wave forms, and sounds. These signs can alert people to impending tsunamis, but no research has explored the recognizability of these signs or the social-cognitive factors that affect human behavioral response to them. Of 663 interviewees, 24% felt ground shaking during the earthquake; 69% saw something unusual about the ocean before the first wave reached land, mostly a receded shoreline; and 55% heard something unusual. Despite these levels of observation, most people did not evacuate. In fact, 65% saw other people in the danger zone at the time of the tsunami impact. Most respondents had to run for their lives but could not identify a safe place. There are major differences in experience among north, central, and southern coastal Thailand, reflecting social, topographical, and hydrological factors. DOI: 10.1193/1.2206791

Lava flows from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes are a major volcanic hazard that could impact the western portion of the island of Hawai‘i (e.g., Kona). The most recent eruptions of these two volcanoes to affect Kona occurred in a.d. 1950 and ca. 1800, respectively. In contrast, in eastern Hawai‘i, eruptions of neighboring Kīlauea volcano have occurred frequently since 1955, and therefore have been the focus for hazard mitigation. Official preparedness and response measures are therefore modeled on typical eruptions of Kīlauea. The combinations of short-lived precursory activity (e.g., volcanic tremor) at Mauna Loa, the potential for fast-moving lava flows, and the proximity of Kona communities to potential vents represent significant emergency management concerns in Kona. Less is known about past eruptions of Hualālai, but similar concerns exist. Future lava flows present an increased threat to personal safety because of the short times that may be available for responding. Mitigation must address not only the specific characteristics of volcanic hazards in Kona, but also the manner in which the hazards relate to the communities likely to be affected. This paper describes the first steps in developing effective mitigation plans: measuring the current state of people’s knowledge of eruption parameters and the implications for their safety. We present results of a questionnaire survey administered to 462 high school students and adults in Kona. The rationale for this study was the long lapsed time since the last Kona eruption, and the high population growth and expansion of infrastructure over this time interval. Anticipated future growth in social and economic infrastructure in this area provides additional justification for this work. The residents of Kona have received little or no specific information about how to react to future volcanic eruptions or warnings, and short-term preparedness levels are low. Respondents appear uncertain about how to respond to threatening lava flows and overestimate the minimum time available to react, suggesting that personal risk levels are unnecessarily high. A successful volcanic warning plan in Kona must be tailored to meet the unique situation there.

Volcanic hazards in Kona (i.e. the western side of the island of Hawai‵i) stem primarily from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes. The former has erupted 39 times since 1832. Lava flows were emplaced in Kona during seven of these eruptions and last impacted Kona in 1950. Hualālai last erupted in ca. 1800. Society’s proximity to potential eruptive sources and the potential for relatively fast-moving lava flows, coupled with relatively long time intervals since the last eruptions in Kona, are the underlying stimuli for this study of risk perception. Target populations were high-school students and adults (n=462). Using these data, we discuss threat knowledge as an influence on risk perception, and perception as a driving mechanism for preparedness. Threat knowledge and perception of risk were found to be low to moderate. On average, fewer than two-thirds of the residents were aware of the most recent eruptions that impacted Kona, and a minority felt that Mauna Loa and Hualālai could ever erupt again. Furthermore, only about one-third were aware that lava flows could reach the coast in Kona in less than 3 h. Lava flows and ash fall were perceived to be among the least likely hazards to affect the respondent’s community within the next 10 years, whereas vog (volcanic smog) was ranked the most likely. Less than 18% identified volcanic hazards as amongst the most likely hazards to affect them at home, school, or work. Not surprisingly, individual preparedness measures were found on average to be limited to simple tasks of value in frequently occurring domestic emergencies, whereas measures specific to infrequent hazard events such as volcanic eruptions were seldom adopted. Furthermore, our data show that respondents exhibit an ‘unrealistic optimism bias’ and infer that responsibility for community preparedness for future eruptions primarily rests with officials. We infer that these respondents may be less likely to attend to hazard information, react to warnings as directed, and undertake preparedness measures than other populations who perceive responsibility to lie with themselves. There are significant differences in hazard awareness and risk perception between students and adults, between subpopulations representing local areas, and between varying ethnicities. We conclude that long time intervals since damaging lava flows have occurred in Kona have contributed to lower levels of awareness and risk perceptions of the threat from lava flows, and that the on-going eruption at Kīlauea has facilitated greater awareness and perception of risk of vog but not of other volcanic hazards. Low levels of preparedness may be explained by low perceptions of threat and risk and perhaps by the lack of a clear motivation or incentive to seek new modes of adjustment.

Messages conveying volcano alert level such as Watches and Warnings are designed to provide people with risk information before, during, and after eruptions. Information is communicated to people from volcano observatories and emergency management agencies and from informal sources and social and environmental cues. Any individual or agency can be both a message sender and a recipient and multiple messages received from multiple sources is the norm in a volcanic crisis. Significant challenges to developing effective warning systems for volcanic hazards stem from the great diversity in unrest, eruption, and post-eruption processes and the rapidly advancing digital technologies that people use to seek real-time risk information. Challenges also involve the need to invest resources before unrest to help people develop shared mental models of important risk factors. Two populations of people are the target of volcano notifications–ground- and aviation-based populations, and volcano warning systems must address both distinctly different populations.

This paper reports on a comprehensive vulnerability analysis based on a research work developed within the EC ENSURE Project (7FP) dealing with the assessment of different volcanic phenomena and induced mass-movements on Vulcano Island (S Italy) as a key tool for proactive efforts for multi-risk mitigation. The work is mainly focused on tephra sedimentation and lahar hazards and related physical, systemic and mitigation capacities.

This article describes the testing of a model that proposes that people's beliefs regarding the effectiveness of hazard preparedness interact with social context factors (community participation, collective efficacy, empowerment and trust) to influence levels of hazard preparedness. Using data obtained from people living in coastal communities in Alaska and Oregon that are susceptible to experiencing tsunami, structural equation modelling analyses confirmed the ability of the model to help account for differences in levels of tsunami preparedness. Analysis revealed that community members and civic agencies influence preparedness in ways that are independent of the information provided per se. The model suggests that, to encourage people to prepare, outreach strategies must (a) encourage community members to discuss tsunami hazard issues and to identify the resources and information they need to deal with the consequences a tsunami would pose for them and (b) ensure that the community-agency relationship is complementary and empowering.

The suddenness and scale of the 26 December 2004 tsunami and the challenges posed to affected communities highlighted the benefits of their members having a capacity to confront and adapt to the consequences of such a disaster. Research into adaptive capacity or resilience has been conducted almost exclusively with Western populations. This paper describes an exploratory study of the potential of a measure of collective efficacy developed for Western populations to predict the capacity of members of a collective society, Thai citizens affected by the 2004 tsunami, to confront effectively the recovery demands associated with this disaster. Following a demonstration that this measure could predict adaptive capacity, the role of religious affiliation, ethnicity and place of residence in sustaining collective efficacy is discussed. The implications of the findings for future research on, and intervention to develop, adaptive capacity among Thai citizens in particular and collectivist societies in general are discussed.