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Background: In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models. Objective: To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models. Methods: Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement. Results: 4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods. Conclusions: The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

Discrepancies between subjective cognitive difficulties and objective measures of cognitive function in people with MS have been identified and may be related to mood and fatigue. The aim of the present study was to examine associations of depression and fatigue with discrepancies between subjective and objective cognitive functioning in pwMS. 177 participants with MS attending a University Hospital Department of Neurology MS Outpatient clinic completed the Brief International Cognitive Assessment for MS (BICAMS), MS Neuropsychological Questionnaire (MSNQ), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and Modified Fatigue Impact Scale (MFIS). To quantify the discrepancy between objective (BICAMS) and subjective (MSNQ) cognitive functioning, discrepancy scores were calculated by subtracting MSNQ z-score from composite BICAMS z-score. Based on their discrepancy score, participants were grouped as 'Underestimated', 'Overestimated' and 'Non-discrepant'. 39% of the total sample demonstrated poorer subjective cognitive functioning than their objective cognitive performance suggested ('Underestimated'). 23% of the total sample indicated lower objective scores than their subjective report suggests ('Overestimated'). 38% participants indicated relatively no discrepancy between objective and subjective cognitive measures ('Non-discrepant'). Significant differences were observed between the discrepancy groups in terms of depression and fatigue, with the 'Underestimated' group demonstrating greater levels of depression and fatigue (ps .01). Regression analysis indicated that cognitive fatigue and depression significantly contributed to variance in subjective cognitive functioning. Our findings suggest that subjective reports of cognitive function may be influenced by depression and fatigue, emphasising the importance of cognitive, mood and fatigue screening as part of routine clinical care.

In biparental Charadriinae plovers, male and female incubation duties often resemble daily routines, with males typically incubating at night and females incubating during the day. By analysing incubation behaviour in three Arctic populations of Common Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula, we show that these diel routines are lost in the 24-h sunlight of the Arctic. In contrast, a non-Arctic population in East Scotland exhibited significant daily routines, with males dominating incubation during the late afternoon and night, and females dominating incubation during the early morning and midday hours. These patterns suggest that clear light/dark cycles are necessary for daily incubation routines to form in the Common Ringed Plover, although further research is needed to understand the specific drivers of this behaviour.

Background and purpose: This study assessed the effect of patient characteristics on the response to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS).Methods: We extracted data from 61,810 patients from 135 centers across 35 countries from the MSBase registry. The selection criteria were: clinically isolated syndrome or definite MS, follow -up >= 1 year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score >= 3, with >= 1 score recorded per year. Marginal structural models with interaction terms were used to compare the hazards of 12 -month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated patients stratified by their characteristics.Results: Among 24,344 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45- 0.60), 46% lower risk of disability worsening (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41- 0.71), and 32% greater chance of disability improvement (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09- 1.59). The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The magnitude of the effect of DMT on suppressing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and prior cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity. We did not find any evidence for the effect of age on the effectiveness of DMT. After inclusion of 1985 participants with progressive MS, the effect of DMT on disability mostly depended on MS phenotype, whereas its effect on relapses was driven mainly by prior relapse activity.Conclusions: DMT is generally most effective among patients with lower disability and in relapsing MS phenotypes. There is no evidence of attenuation of the effect of DMT with age. This study was financially supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (1129189, 1140766, 1080518) We thank the patients and their carers who have agreed to participate in the global MSBase cohort study. The MSBase Foundation is a not-for-profit organization that receives support from Roche, Merck, Biogen, Novartis, Bayer-Schering, Sanofi-Genzyme, and Teva. The study was conducted separately and apart from the guidance of the sponsors. Open access publishing facilitated by The University of Melbourne, as part of the Wiley - The University of Melbourne agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians.

BackgroundDisability progression is a key milestone in the disease evolution of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Prediction models of disability progression have not yet reached the level of trust needed to be adopted in the clinic. A common benchmark to assess model development in multiple sclerosis is also currently lacking.MethodsData of adult PwMS with a follow-up of at least three years from 146 MS centers, spread over 40 countries and collected by the MSBase consortium was used. With basic inclusion criteria for quality requirements, it represents a total of 15, 240 PwMS. External validation was performed and repeated five times to assess the significance of the results. TRIPOD guidelines were followed.Confirmed disability progression after two years was predicted, with a confirmation window of six months. Only routinely collected variables were used such as the expended disability status scale, treatment, relapse information, and MS course.To learn the probability of disability progression, state-of-the-art machine learning models were investigated. The discrimination performance of the models is evaluated on their area under the receiver operator curve (ROC-AUC) and under the precision recall curve (AUC-PR), and their calibration via the Brier score and the expected calibration error.FindingsA temporal attention model was the best model. It achieved a ROC-AUC of 0·71 ± 0·01, an AUC-PR of 0·26 ± 0·02, a Brier score of 0·1 ± 0·01 and an expected calibration error of 0·07 ± 0·04. The history of disability progression is more predictive for future disability progression than the treatment or relapses.InterpretationGood discrimination and calibration performance on an external validation set is achieved, using only routinely collected variables. This makes these models ready for a clinical impact study. All our preprocessing and model code is available at https://gitlab.com/edebrouwer/ms_benchmark, making this task an ideal benchmark for predicting disability progression in MS.

There is no consensus regarding the classification of optic neuritis, and precise diagnostic criteria are not available. This reality means that the diagnosis of disorders that have optic neuritis as the first manifestation can be challenging. Accurate diagnosis of optic neuritis at presentation can facilitate the timely treatment of individuals with multiple sclerosis, neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder, or myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease. Epidemiological data show that, cumulatively, optic neuritis is most frequently caused by many conditions other than multiple sclerosis. Worldwide, the cause and management of optic neuritis varies with geographical location, treatment availability, and ethnic background. We have developed diagnostic criteria for optic neuritis and a classification of optic neuritis subgroups. Our diagnostic criteria are based on clinical features that permit a diagnosis of possible optic neuritis; further paraclinical tests, utilising brain, orbital, and retinal imaging, together with antibody and other protein biomarker data, can lead to a diagnosis of definite optic neuritis. Paraclinical tests can also be applied retrospectively on stored samples and historical brain or retinal scans, which will be useful for future validation studies. Our criteria have the potential to reduce the risk of misdiagnosis, provide information on optic neuritis disease course that can guide future treatment trial design, and enable physicians to judge the likelihood of a need for long-term pharmacological management, which might differ according to optic neuritis subgroups.

IntroductionNatalizumab treatment is associated with risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopa- thy (PML). Following PML diagnosis, plasma exchange (PLEX) may be used to enable rapid natalizumab clearance. This analysis explores the impact of PLEX and patient characteristics on natalizumab-associated PML outcomes.MethodsPatients with multiple sclerosis, natalizumab-associated PML, and PLEX treatment status as of September 2018 were included (PLEX+, n=616; PLEX−, n=109). The primary outcome was 2-year survival after PML diagnosis. Kaplan-Meier estimates of cumulative survival for patients with/without PLEX were stratified by log JC virus (JCV) viral copy number (VCN) at PML diagnosis. Hazard ratios for survival were based on a Cox proportional hazards model.ResultsThe cumulative probability of 2-year survival for PLEX+ vs PLEX− patients was 88.2% vs. 89.3% (P=0.857) with log VCN ≤5, 73.8% vs. 89.3% (P=0.097) with log VCN >5 to ≤7, and 68.2% vs. 78.9% (P=0.435) with log VCN >7. Improved survival was associated with younger age, asymptomatic presentation, localized PML lesions, and lower log JCV VCN.ConclusionsPLEX had no significant effect on survival rates. Numerically worse 2-year survival probabilities were observed with PLEX regardless of PML presentation, suggesting PLEX is not effective for improving post-PML outcomes.SupportBiogen. Disclosures: Included on the poster.g.giovannoni@qmul.ac.uk

Background Lowserum vitamin D levels are associated with susceptibility to, and severity of, multiple sclerosis. High dose vitamin D has been proposed as a potential immunomodulator in multiple sclerosis. Objectives We performed a single centre, investigator-led, exploratory, double-blind, randomised, placebo controlled, trial of vitamin D3 in clinically isolated syndrome and healthy control participants to assess its immunological effects. Secondary end-points included clinical and magnetic resonance imaging outcomes and safety. Methods Clinically isolated syndrome patients and healthy control participants were randomised to: placebo, 5000 IU or 10,000 IU vitamin D3/day (Vigantol oil). Study duration was 24 weeks. Results The trial did not meet its primary end point, with no difference in the frequency of pro-inflammatory CD4+ T cells (interleukin (IL)-17+/interferon (IFN)-γ+) seen. A higher level of disease freedom (67% versus 50%) was seen in those with serum 1,25 (OH) vitamin D levels>100 nmol/l but this did not reach significance. High dose vitamin D3 was well tolerated with no safety signal. Conclusions High dose vitamin D3 over 24 weeks was well tolerated but without immunological, magnetic resonance imaging or clinical evidence of benefit. The hypothesised therapeutic effects in clinically isolated syndrome or multiple sclerosis patients may require longer periods of administration or may only be seen in patients treated with vitamin D3 as an adjunct to established disease modifying therapies.

Previously published S1P receptor modulator benzyl ether derivatives have shown potential as being viable therapeutics for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases, however, two of the most S1P

Alemtuzumab (Lemtrada™) is a humanized monoclonal antibody approved in more than 50 countries. Within the European Union, alemtuzumab is indicated for the treatment of adult patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) with active disease defined by clinical or imaging features; in the USA, the indication states that alemtuzumab should generally be reserved for the treatment of patients with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis who have had an inadequate response to two or more disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). In clinical trials, alemtuzumab demonstrated efficacy in treatment-naive patients with active RRMS and those relapsing on prior DMTs, with a consistent and manageable safety and tolerability profile. The European Union indication provides physicians with significant flexibility regarding treatment decisions, affording the opportunity for individualized treatment. Thus, alemtuzumab may be an appropriate treatment choice across a broad range of patients with RRMS, including, for example, treatment-naive patients with active disease, patients with highly active disease, or for patients relapsing on prior DMTs. There are several practicalities to consider when using alemtuzumab, including the unique dosing regimen, administered via intravenous infusion on 5 consecutive days at baseline and on 3 consecutive days 12 months later, and as-needed retreatment (3 consecutive days at least 12 months after the last course) in cases of disease recurrence. Additionally, routine monthly monitoring is required for up to 48 months after the last infusion to promptly identify potentially serious autoimmune adverse events. Given these considerations, it is beneficial to gain insight into how alemtuzumab is being used in the real-world clinical setting. Here, we report recommendations from European multiple sclerosis experts regarding best practices for alemtuzumab treatment, including management of adverse events and compliance with ongoing safety monitoring requirements.