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2. Projected Change—Atmosphere

Author

Christensen, Ole Bøssing, Kjellström, Erik, Zorita, Eduardo, Bolle, Hans-Jürgen, Series editor, Menenti, Massimo, Series editor, Rasool, S. Ichtiaque, Series editor, and The BACC II Author Team, editor

Published
2015
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3. Projected Change—Models and Methodology

Author

Wibig, Joanna, Maraun, Douglas, Benestad, Rasmus, Kjellström, Erik, Lorenz, Philip, Christensen, Ole Bøssing, Bolle, Hans-Jürgen, Series editor, Menenti, Massimo, Series editor, Rasool, S. Ichtiaque, Series editor, and The BACC II Author Team, editor

Published
2015
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8. Identifying robust bias adjustment methods for European extreme precipitation in a multi-model pseudo-reality setting

Author

Schmith, Torben, Thejll, Peter, Berg, Peter, Boberg, Fredrik, Christensen, Ole Bossing, Christiansen, Bo, Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg, Madsen, Marianne Sloth, Steger, Christian, Schmith, Torben, Thejll, Peter, Berg, Peter, Boberg, Fredrik, Christensen, Ole Bossing, Christiansen, Bo, Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg, Madsen, Marianne Sloth, and Steger, Christian

Published
2021
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9. Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways : A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study

Author

Spinoni, Jonathan, Barbosa, Paulo, Bucchignani, Edoardo, Cassano, John, Cavazos, Tereza, Cescatti, Alessandro, Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg, Christensen, Ole Bossing, Coppola, Erika, Evans, Jason, Forzieri, Giovanni, Geyer, Beate, Giorgi, Filippo, Jacob, Daniela, Katzfey, Jack, Koenigk, Torben, Laprise, Rene, Lennard, Christopher John, Levent Kurnaz, M., Li, Delei, Llopart, Marta, McCormick, Niall, Naumann, Gustavo, Nikulin, Grigory, Ozturk, Tugba, Panitz, Hans-Jurgen, da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio, Solman, Silvina Alicia, Syktus, Jozef, Tangang, Fredolin, Teichmann, Claas, Vautard, Robert, Vogt, Jurgen Valentin, Winger, Katja, Zittis, George, Dosio, Alessandro, Spinoni, Jonathan, Barbosa, Paulo, Bucchignani, Edoardo, Cassano, John, Cavazos, Tereza, Cescatti, Alessandro, Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg, Christensen, Ole Bossing, Coppola, Erika, Evans, Jason, Forzieri, Giovanni, Geyer, Beate, Giorgi, Filippo, Jacob, Daniela, Katzfey, Jack, Koenigk, Torben, Laprise, Rene, Lennard, Christopher John, Levent Kurnaz, M., Li, Delei, Llopart, Marta, McCormick, Niall, Naumann, Gustavo, Nikulin, Grigory, Ozturk, Tugba, Panitz, Hans-Jurgen, da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio, Solman, Silvina Alicia, Syktus, Jozef, Tangang, Fredolin, Teichmann, Claas, Vautard, Robert, Vogt, Jurgen Valentin, Winger, Katja, Zittis, George, and Dosio, Alessandro

Abstract

Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population and land-use (forests, croplands, pastures) exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset, and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981-2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five SSPs (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs, from 1.5 to 4 degrees C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the combination SSP3-GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (vs. 1981-2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, and SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, that is, more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought. For SSP5 (fossil-fuelled development) at GWL 4 degrees C, approximately 2 center dot 10(6) km(2) of forests and croplands (respectively, 6 and 11%) and 1.5 center dot 10(6) km(2) of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI, this extent will rise to 17 center dot 10(6) km(2) of forests (49%), 6 center dot 10(6) km(2) of pastures (78%), and 12 center dot 10(6) km(2) of croplands (67%), with mid-latitudes being the most affected areas. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at

Published
2021
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10. The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I : evaluation of precipitation

Author

Ban, Nikolina, Caillaud, Cecile, Coppola, Erika, Pichelli, Emanuela, Sobolowski, Stefan, Adinolfi, Marianna, Ahrens, Bodo, Alias, Antoinette, Anders, Ivonne, Bastin, Sophie, Belušić, Danijel, Berthou, Segolene, Brisson, Erwan, Cardoso, Rita M., Chan, Steven C., Christensen, Ole Bossing, Fernandez, Jesus, Fita, Lluis, Frisius, Thomas, Gasparac, Goran, Giorgi, Filippo, Goergen, Klaus, Haugen, Jan Erik, Hodnebrog, Oivind, Kartsios, Stergios, Katragkou, Eleni, Kendon, Elizabeth J., Keuler, Klaus, Lavin-Gullon, Alvaro, Lenderink, Geert, Leutwyler, David, Lorenz, Torge, Maraun, Douglas, Mercogliano, Paola, Milovac, Josipa, Panitz, Hans-Juergen, Raffa, Mario, Remedio, Armelle Reca, Schar, Christoph, Soares, Pedro M. M., Srnec, Lidija, Steensen, Birthe Marie, Stocchi, Paolo, Toelle, Merja H., Truhetz, Heimo, Vergara-Temprado, Jesus, de Vries, Hylke, Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten, Wulfmeyer, Volker, Zander, Mar Janne, Ban, Nikolina, Caillaud, Cecile, Coppola, Erika, Pichelli, Emanuela, Sobolowski, Stefan, Adinolfi, Marianna, Ahrens, Bodo, Alias, Antoinette, Anders, Ivonne, Bastin, Sophie, Belušić, Danijel, Berthou, Segolene, Brisson, Erwan, Cardoso, Rita M., Chan, Steven C., Christensen, Ole Bossing, Fernandez, Jesus, Fita, Lluis, Frisius, Thomas, Gasparac, Goran, Giorgi, Filippo, Goergen, Klaus, Haugen, Jan Erik, Hodnebrog, Oivind, Kartsios, Stergios, Katragkou, Eleni, Kendon, Elizabeth J., Keuler, Klaus, Lavin-Gullon, Alvaro, Lenderink, Geert, Leutwyler, David, Lorenz, Torge, Maraun, Douglas, Mercogliano, Paola, Milovac, Josipa, Panitz, Hans-Juergen, Raffa, Mario, Remedio, Armelle Reca, Schar, Christoph, Soares, Pedro M. M., Srnec, Lidija, Steensen, Birthe Marie, Stocchi, Paolo, Toelle, Merja H., Truhetz, Heimo, Vergara-Temprado, Jesus, de Vries, Hylke, Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten, Wulfmeyer, Volker, and Zander, Mar Janne

Published
2021
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11. The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2 : historical and future simulations of precipitation

Author

Pichelli, Emanuela, Coppola, Erika, Sobolowski, Stefan, Ban, Nikolina, Giorgi, Filippo, Stocchi, Paolo, Alias, Antoinette, Belušić, Danijel, Berthou, Segolene, Caillaud, Cecile, Cardoso, Rita M., Chan, Steven, Christensen, Ole Bossing, Dobler, Andreas, de Vries, Hylke, Goergen, Klaus, Kendon, Elizabeth J., Keuler, Klaus, Lenderink, Geert, Lorenz, Torge, Mishra, Aditya N., Panitz, Hans-Juergen, Schaer, Christoph, Soares, Pedro M. M., Truhetz, Heimo, Vergara-Temprado, Jesus, Pichelli, Emanuela, Coppola, Erika, Sobolowski, Stefan, Ban, Nikolina, Giorgi, Filippo, Stocchi, Paolo, Alias, Antoinette, Belušić, Danijel, Berthou, Segolene, Caillaud, Cecile, Cardoso, Rita M., Chan, Steven, Christensen, Ole Bossing, Dobler, Andreas, de Vries, Hylke, Goergen, Klaus, Kendon, Elizabeth J., Keuler, Klaus, Lenderink, Geert, Lorenz, Torge, Mishra, Aditya N., Panitz, Hans-Juergen, Schaer, Christoph, Soares, Pedro M. M., Truhetz, Heimo, and Vergara-Temprado, Jesus

Published
2021
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12. An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate

Author

Jacob, Daniela, Barring, Lars, Christensen, Ole Bossing, Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg, Castro, Manuel, Deque, Michel, Giorgi, Filippo, Hagemann, Stefan, Hirschi, Martin, Jones, Richard, Kjellstrom, Erik, Lenderink, Geert, Rockel, Burkhardt, Sanchez, Enrique, Schar, Christoph, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Somot, Samuel, Ulden, Aad, and Hurk, Bart

Subjects
Climate -- Models, Climatic changes -- Influence, Earth sciences
Abstract

Byline: Daniela Jacob (1), Lars Barring (5), Ole Bossing Christensen (2), Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen (2), Manuel Castro (11), Michel Deque (8), Filippo Giorgi (10), Stefan Hagemann (1), Martin Hirschi (3), Richard Jones (9), Erik Kjellstrom (5), Geert Lenderink (6), Burkhardt Rockel (7), Enrique Sanchez (11), Christoph Schar (3), Sonia I. Seneviratne (4), Samuel Somot (8), Aad Ulden (6), Bart Hurk (6) Abstract: The analysis of possible regional climate changes over Europe as simulated by 10 regional climate models within the context of PRUDENCE requires a careful investigation of possible systematic biases in the models. The purpose of this paper is to identify how the main model systematic biases vary across the different models. Two fundamental aspects of model validation are addressed here: the ability to simulate (1) the long-term (30 or 40 years) mean climate and (2) the inter-annual variability. The analysis concentrates on near-surface air temperature and precipitation over land and focuses mainly on winter and summer. In general, there is a warm bias with respect to the CRU data set in these extreme seasons and a tendency to cold biases in the transition seasons. In winter the typical spread (standard deviation) between the models is 1 K. During summer there is generally a better agreement between observed and simulated values of inter-annual variability although there is a relatively clear signal that the modeled temperature variability is larger than suggested by observations, while precipitation variability is closer to observations. The areas with warm (cold) bias in winter generally exhibit wet (dry) biases, whereas the relationship is the reverse during summer (though much less clear, coupling warm (cold) biases with dry (wet) ones). When comparing the RCMs with their driving GCM, they generally reproduce the large-scale circulation of the GCM though in some cases there are substantial differences between regional biases in surface temperature and precipitation. Author Affiliation: (1) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr.53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany (2) Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark (3) Institut for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH, 8057, Zurich, Switzerland (4) Global Modeling and Assimilation Office NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA (5) Rossby Centre, SMHI, 60176, Norrkoping, Sweden (6) Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, 3730 AE, de Bilt, The Netherlands (7) GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht, Max-Planck-Strasse, 21502, Geesthacht, Germany (8) Meteo-France CNRM, 42 av. Gaspard Coriolis, 31057, Toulouse Cedex, France (9) Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit), Meteorology Building, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK (10) The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, P. O. BOX 586, 34100, Trieste, Italy (11) Facultad de Ciencias del Medio Ambiente, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III s/n, 45071, Toledo, Spain Article History: Registration Date: 17/11/2006 Received Date: 15/02/2005 Accepted Date: 17/10/2006 Online Date: 17/03/2007

Published
2007

13. A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century

Author

Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg and Christensen, Ole Bossing

Subjects
Climate -- Models, Climate -- Forecasts and trends, Climatic changes -- Evaluation, Environment -- Research, Environment -- Evaluation, Market trend/market analysis, Earth sciences
Abstract

Byline: Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen (1), Ole Bossing Christensen (1) Abstract: An overview of the PRUDENCE fine resolution climate model experiments for Europe is presented in terms of their climate change signals, in particular 2-meter temperature and precipitation. A comparison is made with regard to the seasonal variation in climate change response of the different models participating in the project. In particular, it will be possible to check how representative a particular PRUDENCE regional experiment is of the overall set in terms of seasonal values of temperature and precipitation. This is of relevance for such further studies and impact models that for practical reasons cannot use all the PRUDENCE regional experiments. This paper also provides some guidelines for how to select subsets of the PRUDENCE regional experiments according to such main sources of uncertainty in regional climate simulations as the choice of the emission scenario and of the driving global climate model. Author Affiliation: (1) Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100, Copenhagen A, Denmark Article History: Registration Date: 17/11/2006 Received Date: 07/12/2005 Accepted Date: 18/05/2006 Online Date: 17/03/2007

Published
2007

15. Climate change impact on snow coverage, evaporation and river discharge in the sub-Arctic Tana Basin, Northern Fennoscandia

Author

Dankers, Rutger and Christensen, Ole Bossing

Subjects
Snow -- Research, Evaporation -- Causes of, Climatic changes -- Environmental aspects, Hydrology -- Research, Earth sciences
Abstract

Arctic environments are generally believed to be highly sensitive to human-induced climatic change. In this paper, we explore the impacts on the hydrological system of the sub-arctic Tana Basin in Northernmost Finland and Norway. In contrast with previous studies, attention is not only given to river discharge, but also to the spatial patterns in snow coverage and evapotranspiration. We used a distributed water balance model that was coupled to a regional climate model in order to calculate a scenario of climate change by the end of this century. Three different model experiments were performed, adopting different approaches to using the climate model output in the hydrological model runs. The results were largely consistent, indicating a much shorter snow season and, accordingly, decreased sublimation, an increase in evapotranspiration, and a shift in the annual runoff peak. As the snow-free season is extended, the amount of solar radiation that is received during this period increases significantly. The results also show important local differences in the hydrological response to climate change. For example, in the scenario runs, the snow season was more than 30 days shorter at higher elevations, but in some of the river valleys, this was tip to 70 days.

Published
2005

17. European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 degrees C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models

Author

Kjellström, Erik, Nikulin, Grigory, Strandberg, Gustav, Christensen, Ole Bossing, Jacob, Daniela, Keuler, Klaus, Lenderink, Geert, van Meijgaard, Erik, Schar, Christoph, Somot, Samuel, Sorland, Silje Lund, Teichmann, Claas, Vautard, Robert, Kjellström, Erik, Nikulin, Grigory, Strandberg, Gustav, Christensen, Ole Bossing, Jacob, Daniela, Keuler, Klaus, Lenderink, Geert, van Meijgaard, Erik, Schar, Christoph, Somot, Samuel, Sorland, Silje Lund, Teichmann, Claas, and Vautard, Robert

Published
2018
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18. Land-atmosphere coupling in EURO-CORDEX evaluation experiments

Author

Knist, Sebastian, Georgen, Klaus, Buonomo, Erasmo, Christensen, Ole Bossing, Colette, Augustin, Cardoso, Rita M., Fealy, Rowan, Fernández Fernández, Jesús (matemático), García Díez, Markel, Jacob, Daniela, Kartsios, Stergios, Katragkou, Eleni, Keuler, Klaus, Mayer, Stephanie, Van Meijgaard, Erik, Nikulin, Grigory, Soares, Pedro M.M., Sobolowski, Stefan, Szepszo, Gabriella, Teichmann, Claas, and Universidad de Cantabria

Abstract

Interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere play a fundamental role in the weather and climate system. Here we present a comparison of summertime land?atmosphere coupling strength found in a subset of the ERA?Interim?driven European domain Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (EURO?CORDEX) model ensemble (1989?2008). Most of the regional climate models (RCMs) reproduce the overall soil moisture interannual variability, spatial patterns, and annual cycles of surface exchange fluxes for the different European climate zones suggested by the observational Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) and FLUXNET data sets. However, some RCMs differ substantially from FLUXNET observations for some regions. The coupling strength is quantified by the correlation between the surface sensible and the latent heat flux, and by the correlation between the latent heat flux and 2?m temperature. The first correlation is compared to its estimate from the few available long?term European high?quality FLUXNET observations, and the latter to results from gridded GLEAM data. The RCM simulations agree with both observational datasets in the large?scale pattern characterized by strong coupling in southern Europe and weak coupling in northern Europe. However, in the transition zone from strong to weak coupling covering large parts of central Europe many of the RCMs tend to overestimate the coupling strength in comparison to both FLUXNET and GLEAM. The RCM ensemble spread is caused primarily by the different land surface models applied, and by the model?specific weather conditions resulting from different atmospheric parameterizations. The authors like to thank the coordination and the participating institutes of the EURO‐CORDEX initiative for making this study possible. The contribution from Centre de Recherche Public‐Gabriel Lippmann (labeled here as “MIUB”) (now Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, LIST) was funded by the Luxembourg National Research Fund (FNR) through grant FNR C09/SR/16 (CLIMPACT). The John von Neumann Institute for Computing and the Forschungszentrum Jülich provided the required compute time for the project JJSC15. Work is furthermore sponsored through a research and development cooperation on hydrometeorology between the Federal Institute of Hydrology, Koblenz, Germany, and the Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany. The KNMI‐RACMO simulation was supported by the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment. The simulations of the Universidad de Cantabria were supported by the CORWES project (CGL2010‐22158‐C02), funded by the Spanish R&D Programme and by the FP7 grant 308291 (EUPORIAS). We acknowledge Santander Supercomputacion support group at the University of Cantabria, who provided access to the Altamira Supercomputer at the Institute of Physics of Cantabria (IFCA‐CSIC), member of the Spanish Supercomputing Network. Rowan Fealy acknowledges the financial support provided by the Irish Environmental Protection Agency and the use of Maynooth University's high‐performance computer and the Irish Centre for High End Computing (ICHEC) Stokes facility. The work done by Rita M. Cardoso and Pedro M.M. Soares was financed the Portuguese Science Foundation (FCT) under Project SOLAR‐PTDC/GEOMET/7078/2014. The work of University of Hohenheim as part of the Project RU 1695 was funded by German Science Foundation (DFG). WRF‐UHOH simulations were carried out at the supercomputing center HLRS in Stuttgart (Germany). The CLMcom‐CCLM simulation was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ). AUTH‐DMC acknowledges the technical support of AUTH‐Scientific Computing Center, the HellasGrid/EGI infrastructure, and the financial support of AUTH‐Research Committee (Pr.Nr. 91376 and 87783). This work used eddy covariance data acquired by the FLUXNET community. We acknowledge the financial support to the eddy covariance data harmonization (www.fluxdata.org). The ERA‐Interim data were accessed from http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/. The GLEAM data were accessed from www.gleam.eu/#downloads. The analysis results and the underlying RCM data base are available upon request (sknist@uni‐bonn.de). The data are archived at the Jülich Supercomputing Centre, Research Centre Jülich, Jülich, Germany. We thank the anonymous reviewers for their detailed and constructive comments.

Published
2017

19. Land-atmosphere coupling in EURO-CORDEXevaluation experiments

Author

Knist, Sebastian, Klaus, Goergen, Buonomo, Erasmo, Christensen, Ole Bossing, Colette, Augustin, Cardoso, Rita M., Fealy, Rowan, Fernández, Jesus, García-Díez, Markel, Jacob, Daniela, Kartsios, Stergios, Katragkou, Eleni, Keuler, Klaus, Mayer, Stephanie, Van Meijgaard, Erik, Nikulin, Grigory, Soares, Pedro M.M., Sobolowski, Stefan, Szepszo, Gabriella, Teichmann, Claas, Vautard, Robert, Warrach-Sag, Kirsten, Wulfmeye, Volker, Simmer, Clemens, Knist, Sebastian, Klaus, Goergen, Buonomo, Erasmo, Christensen, Ole Bossing, Colette, Augustin, Cardoso, Rita M., Fealy, Rowan, Fernández, Jesus, García-Díez, Markel, Jacob, Daniela, Kartsios, Stergios, Katragkou, Eleni, Keuler, Klaus, Mayer, Stephanie, Van Meijgaard, Erik, Nikulin, Grigory, Soares, Pedro M.M., Sobolowski, Stefan, Szepszo, Gabriella, Teichmann, Claas, Vautard, Robert, Warrach-Sag, Kirsten, Wulfmeye, Volker, and Simmer, Clemens

Abstract

Interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere play a fundamental role in the weatherand climate system. Here we present a comparison of summertime land-atmosphere coupling strength foundin a subset of the ERA-Interim-driven European domain Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment(EURO-CORDEX) model ensemble (1989–2008). Most of the regional climate models (RCMs) reproduce theoverall soil moisture interannual variability, spatial patterns, and annual cycles of surface exchangefluxes forthe different European climate zones suggested by the observational Global Land Evaporation AmsterdamModel (GLEAM) and FLUXNET data sets. However, some RCMs differ substantially from FLUXNET observationsfor some regions. The coupling strength is quantified by the correlation between the surface sensible andthe latent heatflux, and by the correlation between the latent heatflux and 2 m temperature. Thefirstcorrelation is compared to its estimate from the few available long-term European high-quality FLUXNETobservations, and the latter to results from gridded GLEAM data. The RCM simulations agree with bothobservational datasets in the large-scale pattern characterized by strong coupling in southern Europe and weakcoupling in northern Europe. However, in the transition zone from strong to weak coupling covering large partsof central Europe many of the RCMs tend to overestimate the coupling strength in comparison to bothFLUXNET and GLEAM. The RCM ensemble spread is caused primarily by the different land surface modelsapplied, and by the model-specific weather conditions resulting from different atmospheric parameterizations

Published
2017

20. The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe

Author

Jerez, Sandra, Tobin, Isabelle, Vautard, Robert, Montavez, Juan Pedro, Lopez-Romero, Jose Maria, Thais, Françoise, Bartok, Blanka, Christensen, Ole Bossing, Colette, Augustin, Deque, Michel, Nikulin, Grigory, Kotlarski, Sven, van Meijgaard, Erik, Teichmann, Claas, Wild, Martin, and Civs, Gestionnaire

Subjects
[SDE] Environmental Sciences
Abstract

Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared to the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range [-14%;+2%], with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector.

Published
2016

21. The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe

Author

Jerez, Sonia, Tobin, Isabelle, Vautard, Robert, Pedro Montavez, Juan, Maria Lopez-Romero, Jose, Thais, Francoise, Bartok, Blanka, Christensen, Ole Bossing, Colette, Augustin, Deque, Michel, Nikulin, Grigory, Kotlarski, Sven, van Meijgaard, Erik, Teichmann, Claas, Wild, Martin, Jerez, Sonia, Tobin, Isabelle, Vautard, Robert, Pedro Montavez, Juan, Maria Lopez-Romero, Jose, Thais, Francoise, Bartok, Blanka, Christensen, Ole Bossing, Colette, Augustin, Deque, Michel, Nikulin, Grigory, Kotlarski, Sven, van Meijgaard, Erik, Teichmann, Claas, and Wild, Martin

Abstract

Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in the use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared with the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range (-14%; +2%), with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector.

Published
2015
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23. Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change

Author

Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg, Kanikicharla, Krishna Kumar, Aldrian, Edvin, An, Soon-Il, Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca, Castro, Manuel, Dong, Wenjie, Goswami, Prashant, Hall, Alex, Kanyanga, Joseph Katongo, Kitoh, Akio, Kossin, James, Lau, Ngar-Cheung, Renwick, James, Stephenson, David B., Xie, Shang-Ping, Zhou, Tianjun, Abraham, Libu, Ambrizzi, Tercio, Anderson, Bruce, Arakawa, Osamu, Arritt, Raymond, Baldwin, Mark, Barlow, Mathew, David Barriopedro, Biasutti, Michela, Biner, Sebastien, Bromwich, David, Brown, Josephine, Cai, Wenju, Carvalho, Leila V., Chang, Ping, Chen, Xiaolong, Choi, Jung, Christensen, Ole Bossing, Deser, Clara, Emanuel, Kerry, Endo, Hirokazu, Enfield, David B., Evan, Amato, Giannini, Alessandra, Gillett, Nathan, Hariharasubramanian, Annamalai, Huang, Ping, Jones, Julie, Karumuri, Ashok, Katzfey, Jack, Kjellstrom, Erik, Knight, Jeff, Knutson, Thomas, Kulkarni, Ashwini, Kundeti, Koteswara Rao, Lau, William K., Lenderink, Geert, Lennard, Chris, Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby, Lin, Renping, Losada, Teresa, Mackellar, Neil C., Magana, Victor, Marshall, Gareth, Mearns, Linda, Meehl, Gerald, Menendez, Claudio, Murakami, Hiroyuki, Nath, Mary Jo, Neelin, J. David, Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Olesen, Martin, Polcher, Jan, Qian, Yun, Ray, Suchanda, Reich, Katharine Davis, Rodriguez Fonseca, Belen, Ruti, Paolo, Screen, James, Sedlacek, Jan, Solman, Silvina, Stendel, Martin, Stevenson, Samantha, Takayabu, Izuru, Turner, John, Ummenhofer, Caroline, Walsh, Kevin, Wang, Bin, Wang, Chunzai, Watterson, Ian, Widlansky, Matthew, Wittenberg, Andrew, Woollings, Tim, Yeh, Sang-Wook, Zhang, Chidong, Zhang, Lixia, Zheng, Xiaotong, and Zou, Liwei

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