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Background Type 2 diabetes (T2D) susceptibility is influenced by genetic and environmental factors. Previous findings suggest DNA methylation as a potential mechanism in T2D pathogenesis and progression. Methods We profiled DNA methylation in 248 blood samples from participants of European ancestry from 7 twin cohorts using a methylation sequencing platform targeting regulatory genomic regions encompassing 2,048,698 CpG sites. Findings We find and replicate 3 previously unreported T2D differentially methylated CpG positions (T2D-DMPs) at FDR 5% in RGL3, NGB and OTX2, and 20 signals at FDR 25%, of which 14 replicated. Integrating genetic variation and T2D-discordant monozygotic twin analyses, we identify both genetic-based and genetic-independent T2D-DMPs. The signals annotate to genes with established GWAS and EWAS links to T2D and its complications, including blood pressure (RGL3) and eye disease (OTX2). Interpretation The results help to improve our understanding of T2D disease pathogenesis and progression and may provide biomarkers for its complications. Funding Funding acknowledgements for each cohort can be found in the Supplementary Note.

It has been widely observed that adult men of all ages are at higher risk of developing serious complications from COVID-19 when compared with women. This study aimed to investigate the association of COVID-19 positivity and severity with estrogen exposure in women, in a population based matched cohort study of female users of the COVID Symptom Study application in the UK. Analyses included 152,637 women for menopausal status, 295,689 women for exogenous estrogen intake in the form of the combined oral contraceptive pill (COCP), and 151,193 menopausal women for hormone replacement therapy (HRT). Data were collected using the COVID Symptom Study in May-June 2020. Analyses investigated associations between predicted or tested COVID-19 status and menopausal status, COCP use, and HRT use, adjusting for age, smoking and BMI, with follow-up age sensitivity analysis, and validation in a subset of participants from the TwinsUK cohort. Menopausal women had higher rates of predicted COVID-19 (P = 0.003). COCP-users had lower rates of predicted COVID-19 (P = 8.03E-05), with reduction in hospital attendance (P = 0.023). Menopausal women using HRT or hormonal therapies did not exhibit consistent associations, including increased rates of predicted COVID-19 (P = 2.22E-05) for HRT users alone. The findings support a protective effect of estrogen exposure on COVID-19, based on positive association between predicted COVID-19 with menopausal status, and negative association with COCP use. HRT use was positively associated with COVID-19, but the results should be considered with caution due to lack of data on HRT type, route of administration, duration of treatment, and potential unaccounted for confounders and comorbidities.

Linking epigenetic marks to clinical outcomes improves insight into molecular processes, disease prediction, and therapeutic target identification. Here, a statistical approach is presented to infer the epigenetic architecture of complex disease, determine the variation captured by epigenetic effects, and estimate phenotype-epigenetic probe associations jointly. Implicitly adjusting for probe correlations, data structure (cell-count or relatedness), and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker effects, improves association estimates and in 9,448 individuals, 75.7% (95% CI 71.70–79.3) of body mass index (BMI) variation and 45.6% (95% CI 37.3–51.9) of cigarette consumption variation was captured by whole blood methylation array data. Pathway-linked probes of blood cholesterol, lipid transport and sterol metabolism for BMI, and xenobiotic stimuli response for smoking, showed >1.5 times larger associations with >95% posterior inclusion probability. Prediction accuracy improved by 28.7% for BMI and 10.2% for smoking over a LASSO model, with age-, and tissue-specificity, implying associations are a phenotypic consequence rather than causal.

Background: Pinpointing genetic impacts on DNA methylation can improve our understanding of pathways that underlie gene regulation and disease risk. Results: We report heritability and methylation quantitative trait locus (meQTL) analysis at 724,499 CpGs profiled with the Illumina Infinium MethylationEPIC array in 2358 blood samples from three UK cohorts. Methylation levels at 34.2% of CpGs are affected by SNPs, and 98% of effects are cis-acting or within 1 Mbp of the tested CpG. Our results are consistent with meQTL analyses based on the former Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450 array. Both SNPs and CpGs with meQTLs are overrepresented in enhancers, which have improved coverage on this platform compared to previous approaches. Co-localisation analyses across genetic effects on DNA methylation and 56 human traits identify 1520 co-localisations across 1325 unique CpGs and 34 phenotypes, including in disease-relevant genes, such as USP1 and DOCK7 (total cholesterol levels), and ICOSLG (inflammatory bowel disease). Enrichment analysis of meQTLs and integration with expression QTLs give insights into mechanisms underlying cis-meQTLs (e.g. through disruption of transcription factor binding sites for CTCF and SMC3) and trans-meQTLs (e.g. through regulating the expression of ACD and SENP7 which can modulate DNA methylation at distal sites). Conclusion: Our findings improve the characterisation of the mechanisms underlying DNA methylation variability and are informative for prioritisation of GWAS variants for functional follow-ups. The MeQTL EPIC Database and viewer are available online at https://epicmeqtl.kcl.ac.uk .

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a heterogeneous illness caused by genetic and environmental factors. Previous genome wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many genetic variants associated with T2D and found evidence of differing genetic profiles by age-at-onset. This study seeks to explore further the genetic and environmental drivers of T2D by analysing subgroups based on age-at-onset of diabetes and body mass index (BMI). In UK Biobank, 36 494 T2D cases were stratified into 3 subgroups and GWAS performed for all T2D cases and for each subgroup relative to 421 021 controls. Altogether, 18 SNPs significantly associated genome-wide with T2D in one or more subgroups also showed evidence of heterogeneity between the subgroups, (Cochrane’s Q p < 0.01) with 2 remaining significant after multiple testing (in CDKN2B and CYTIP). Combined risk scores, based on genetic profile, BMI and age, resulted in excellent diabetes prediction (AUC = 0.92). A modest improvement in prediction (AUC = 0.93) was seen when the contribution of genetic and environmental factors was evaluated separately for each subgroup. Increasing sample sizes of genetic studies enables us to stratify disease cases into subgroups which have sufficient power to highlight areas of genetic heterogeneity. Despite some evidence that optimising combined risk scores by subgroup improves prediction, larger sample sizes are likely needed for prediction when using a stratification approach.

DNA methylation variations are prevalent in human obesity but evidence of a causative role in disease pathogenesis is limited. Here, we combine epigenome-wide association and integrative genomics to investigate the impact of adipocyte DNA methylation variations in human obesity. We discover extensive DNA methylation changes that are robustly associated with obesity (N = 190 samples, 691 loci in subcutaneous and 173 loci in visceral adipocytes, P < 1 × 10-7). We connect obesity-associated methylation variations to transcriptomic changes at >500 target genes, and identify putative methylation-transcription factor interactions. Through Mendelian Randomisation, we infer causal effects of methylation on obesity and obesity-induced metabolic disturbances at 59 independent loci. Targeted methylation sequencing, CRISPR-activation and gene silencing in adipocytes, further identifies regional methylation variations, underlying regulatory elements and novel cellular metabolic effects. Our results indicate DNA methylation is an important determinant of human obesity and its metabolic complications, and reveal mechanisms through which altered methylation may impact adipocyte functions.

It has been widely observed that adult men of all ages are at higher risk of developing serious complications from COVID-19 when compared with women. This study aimed to investigate the association of COVID-19 positivity and severity with estrogen exposure in women, in a population based matched cohort study of female users of the COVID Symptom Study application in the UK. Analyses included 152,637 women for menopausal status, 295,689 women for exogenous estrogen intake in the form of the combined oral contraceptive pill (COCP), and 151,193 menopausal women for hormone replacement therapy (HRT). Data were collected using the COVID Symptom Study in May-June 2020. Analyses investigated associations between predicted or tested COVID-19 status and menopausal status, COCP use, and HRT use, adjusting for age, smoking and BMI, with follow-up age sensitivity analysis, and validation in a subset of participants from the TwinsUK cohort. Menopausal women had higher rates of predicted COVID-19 (P = 0.003). COCP-users had lower rates of predicted COVID-19 (P = 8.03E-05), with reduction in hospital attendance (P = 0.023). Menopausal women using HRT or hormonal therapies did not exhibit consistent associations, including increased rates of predicted COVID-19 (P = 2.22E-05) for HRT users alone. The findings support a protective effect of estrogen exposure on COVID-19, based on positive association between predicted COVID-19 with menopausal status, and negative association with COCP use. HRT use was positively associated with COVID-19, but the results should be considered with caution due to lack of data on HRT type, route of administration, duration of treatment, and potential unaccounted for confounders and comorbidities.

Linking epigenetic marks to clinical outcomes improves insight into molecular processes, disease prediction, and therapeutic target identification. Here, a statistical approach is presented to infer the epigenetic architecture of complex disease, determine the variation captured by epigenetic effects, and estimate phenotype-epigenetic probe associations jointly. Implicitly adjusting for probe correlations, data structure (cell-count or relatedness), and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker effects, improves association estimates and in 9,448 individuals, 75.7% (95% CI 71.70–79.3) of body mass index (BMI) variation and 45.6% (95% CI 37.3–51.9) of cigarette consumption variation was captured by whole blood methylation array data. Pathway-linked probes of blood cholesterol, lipid transport and sterol metabolism for BMI, and xenobiotic stimuli response for smoking, showed >1.5 times larger associations with >95% posterior inclusion probability. Prediction accuracy improved by 28.7% for BMI and 10.2% for smoking over a LASSO model, with age-, and tissue-specificity, implying associations are a phenotypic consequence rather than causal.

Background: Ageing is a heterogenous process characterised by cellular and molecular hallmarks, including changes to haematopoietic stem cells and is a primary risk factor for chronic diseases. X chromosome inactivation (XCI) randomly transcriptionally silences either the maternal or paternal X in each cell of 46, XX females to balance the gene expression with 46, XY males. Age acquired XCI-skew describes the preferential selection of cells across a tissue resulting in an imbalance of XCI, which is particularly prevalent in blood tissues of ageing females, and yet its clinical consequences are unknown. Methods: We assayed XCI in 1575 females from the TwinsUK population cohort using DNA extracted from whole blood. We employed prospective, cross-sectional, and intra-twin study designs to characterise the relationship of XCI-skew with molecular and cellular measures of ageing, cardiovascular disease risk, and cancer diagnosis. Results: We demonstrate that XCI-skew is independent of traditional markers of biological ageing and is associated with a haematopoietic bias towards the myeloid lineage. Using an atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score, which captures traditional risk factors, XCI-skew is associated with an increased cardiovascular disease risk both cross-sectionally and within XCI-skew discordant twin pairs. In a prospective 10 year follow-up study, XCI-skew is predictive of future cancer incidence. Conclusions: Our study demonstrates that age acquired XCI-skew captures changes to the haematopoietic stem cell population and has clinical potential as a unique biomarker of chronic disease risk.

Background There is considerable evidence for the importance of the DNA methylome in metabolic health, for example, a robust methylation signature has been associated with body mass index (BMI). However, visceral fat (VF) mass accumulation is a greater risk factor for metabolic disease than BMI alone. In this study, we dissect the subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) methylome signature relevant to metabolic health by focusing on VF as the major risk factor of metabolic disease. We integrate results with genetic, blood methylation, SAT gene expression, blood metabolomic, dietary intake and metabolic phenotype data to assess and quantify genetic and environmental drivers of the identified signals, as well as their potential functional roles. Methods Epigenome-wide association analyses were carried out to determine visceral fat mass-associated differentially methylated positions (VF-DMPs) in SAT samples from 538 TwinsUK participants. Validation and replication were performed in 333 individuals from 3 independent cohorts. To assess functional impacts of the VF-DMPs, the association between VF and gene expression was determined at the genes annotated to the VF-DMPs and an association analysis was carried out to determine whether methylation at the VF-DMPs is associated with gene expression. Further epigenetic analyses were carried out to compare methylation levels at the VF-DMPs as the response variables and a range of different metabolic health phenotypes including android:gynoid fat ratio (AGR), lipids, blood metabolomic profiles, insulin resistance, T2D and dietary intake variables. The results from all analyses were integrated to identify signals that exhibit altered SAT function and have strong relevance to metabolic health. Results We identified 1181 CpG positions in 788 genes to be differentially methylated with VF (VF-DMPs) with significant enrichment in the insulin signalling pat