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This study investigates the lead effects of future plant closures for prospective displaced workers’ subjective and objective outcomes. We analyze the effects on their forward-looking subjective outcomes (job insecurity, probabilistic expectations of job loss and of job search), a current subjective outcome (job satisfaction), and current objective outcomes (weekly hours of work, earnings). We estimate the causal effect of the knowledge of future plant closure by combining propensity-score matching with fixed-effects difference-in-differences regressions using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). Our analysis shows significant lead effects in the year before plant closure. Although wide confidence intervals preclude definitive conclusions, our evidence does not exclude the existence of lead effects two years prior to a plant closure. Additionally, the lead effects do not generally show heterogeneous results based on job position, gender, or immigrant status.

This study examines dynamics of solo self-employment. In particular, we investigate the extent of true state dependence and cross state dependence, i.e., whether experiencing solo self-employment causally affects the probability of becoming an employer in the future. We use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to estimate dynamic multinomial logit models. Our results show that the extent of true (cross) state dependence is rather small. The observed persistence in solo self-employment as well as transitions from solo self-employment to employership can largely be explained by observed and unobserved heterogeneity.

Daylight savings time (DST) represents a public good with costs and benefits. We provide the first comprehensive examination of the welfare effects of the spring and autumn transitions for the UK and Germany. Using individual-level data and a regression discontinuity design, we estimate the effect of the transitions on life satisfaction. Our results show that individuals in both the UK and Germany experience deteriorations in life satisfaction in the first week after the spring transition. We find no effect of the autumn transition. We attribute the negative effect of the spring transition to the reduction in the time endowment and the process of adjusting to the disruption in circadian rhythms. The effects are particularly strong for individuals with young children in the household. We conclude that the higher the shadow price of time, the more difficult is adjustment. Presumably, an increase in flexibility to reallocate time could reduce the welfare loss for individuals with binding time constraints.

This study examines dynamics of solo self-employment. In particular, we investigate the extent of true state dependence and cross state dependence, i.e., whether experiencing solo self-employment causally affects the probability of becoming an employer in the future. We use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to estimate dynamic multinomial logit models. Our results show that the extent of true (cross) state dependence is rather small. The observed persistence in solo self-employment as well as transitions from solo self-employment to employership can largely be explained by observed and unobserved heterogeneity.

This paper investigates multinational enterprises’ (MNEs) response to a unique window of opportunity for temporarily unrestricted profit shifting. The window unexpectedly opened because of a ruling by the European Court of Justice in 2006 that suspended the application of controlled foreign corporation (CFC) rules within the European Economic Area. It closed with a subsequent piece of anti-shifting legislation on thin capitalization in 2007. We identify causal effects of the suspension of the CFC rules on profit shifting by exploiting random variation in the size of MNEs’ windows that results from variation in the business year starting dates across MNEs. Using detailed balance sheet information on internal debt shifting between foreign low tax subsidiaries and their parents, we find that MNEs’ response to the window of opportunity is remarkably moderate in terms of both the probability and the volume of internal lending. On the one hand, this results from substantial short-term rigidities: internal lending increases with window size. On the other hand, MNEs in general responded with a fair amount of reserve which is indicated by low total levels of internal lending throughout the window. Presumably, this is caused by legal uncertainty about the scope of internal debt shifting that would be accepted by tax offices.

Posner (Aging and old age, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1995) proposes the redistribution of health spending from old women to old men to equalize life expectancy. His argument is based on the assumption that the woman’s utility is higher if her husband is alive. Using self-reported satisfaction measures from a long-running German panel survey, the Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), the present study conducts an empirical test of this assumption and investigates the question of whether and to what extent widowed women’s utility responds to her spouse’s death. We apply a combination of propensity score matching and parametric regression techniques. Our results reveal satisfaction trajectories of women who experience the death of their spouse and identifies the causal effect of widowhood. The average level of satisfaction in a control group of non-widowed women serves as a reference to measure the degree of adaptation to widowhood. The results suggest bereavement has no enduring effect on satisfaction, and that is evidence against Posner’s assumption. We conclude that elderly women would not benefit from Posners policy proposal.

Purpose – This paper aims to analyze the welfare use of Turkish immigrants and natives in Germany. The authors ask whether the immigrant‐native gap in welfare use can be explained by observable characteristics, whether the mechanisms behind welfare dependence differ for Turkish immigrants and natives, and, finally, they compare the situation before and after the 2005 reform of the German welfare system.Design/methodology/approach – Using data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel Study, the authors estimate linear probability models with random effects to investigate the correlates of transfer receipt for Turkish immigrants and natives.Findings – Turkish immigrants have a higher propensity to use welfare benefits than natives. After controlling for general individual and household level characteristics, the difference in welfare receipt is statistically significant only for the group of second generation immigrants. The correlation of observable characteristics with welfare dependence differs significantly...

This paper applies semiparametric regression models using penalized splines to investigate the profile of well-being over the life span. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), the analysis shows a common, and quite similar, age-specific pattern of life satisfaction for both Britain and Germany that can be characterized by three age stages. The evidence suggests that the U-shaped profile is a good approximation of decreasing and increasing well-being in the first and second stage. After people reached their late 60s, however, a decline in well-being is found in the third stage. © 2013 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

This paper studies the patterns of welfare dependence among first generation immigrants and natives in Germany before and after a substantial recent reform of the welfare system. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study, the analysis presents life cycle trajectories of transfer receipt for immigrants and natives and studies the correlation between contextual factors and transfer receipt. We find no statistically significant differences in the probability of transfer receipt between immigrants and natives once socioeconomic characteristics are taken into account. Being a single parent, labor market status, and human capital are most closely correlated with the incidence of transfer receipt for both natives and immigrants. Interestingly, recent welfare reforms did not reverse prior patterns of welfare dependence.

This paper holds the view that the intertemporal comparison of people’s subjective evaluations of their lives and living conditions are only meaningful to t he extent the standard of judgement is unaltered. In consequence, the inferences from an analysis of intertemporal changes in subjective well-being are restricted since it is indisti nct whether such changes are caused by a variation in the living conditions or by an adjustment of st andards. This is a weak point of subjective well-being measures. The present study investigates the change in the satisfaction judgements resulting from adaptation to income over time. Adaptation is understood as desensitization (sensitization) to the hedonic effect of income resulting from increases (decreases) in income. An estimator for the rate of adaptation is derived from an adaptive utility function. Using data on self-reported satisfaction with household inco me and global life satisfaction from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), it is found that adaptation leads to a reduction in the hedonic effect of income of approximately 4% (satisfaction with the household income) and 6% (life satisfaction), respectively. Calculating a co mpensating income variation indicates that an increase in income of roughly 2% year is fully offset by adaptation. Furthermore, the results indicate that adaptation is asymmetric: People ada pt faster to increases (gains) than to decreases (losses) in income. Finally, it is found that the r ate of adaptation varies with education: Respondents with a high (low) educational attainment exhibit a low (high) propensity to adapt to income.

Regional economic inequalities are increasing in most of the European Union (EU) member states, while between-nation inequalities in the enlarged Europe are declining in the last years. The economic differences between East and West Europe are gradually diminishing and the EU is becoming a relatively homogeneous economic, legal, and political field, which promotes social and economic cohesion in Europe (at a rate of approximately 2 per cent per year). Most of the regional economic inequalities are already inequalities within nations. The economic and income inequalities in the enlarged EU can be largely explained by different regional employment patterns, industrial structures and the region's location within the European space: central urban regions with a good research and traffic infrastructure, qualified employees, a high employment rate and knowledge-intensive services are the best predictors for high income levels. The slow convergence process in the enlarged EU may not increase popular support for the European integration process because the most important frame of reference is still the nation-state where regional inequalities are increasing.

We study state dependence in welfare receipt and investigate whether welfare transitions changed after a welfare reform. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we apply dynamic multinomial logit estimators and find that state dependence in welfare receipt is not a central feature of the German welfare system. We find that welfare transitions changed after the reform: transitions from welfare to employment became more likely and persistence in welfare and inactivity declined. We observe a large relative increase in transitions from employment to welfare. Immigrants’ responsiveness to the labor market situation increased after the reform.

This paper introduces a simple model to estimate the dynamic adjustment of subjective well-being that results from an updating of expectations in response to changing circumstances. Empirical evidence indicates that adjustment takes place within a relatively short window of time.

This paper analyzes whether individuals have equal opportunity to achieve happiness (or well-being). We estimate sibling correlations and intergenerational correlations in self-reported life satisfaction, satisfaction with household income, job satisfaction, and satisfaction with health. We find high sibling correlations for all measures of well-being. The results suggest that family background explains, on average, between 30% and 60% of the inequality in permanent well-being. The influence is smaller when the siblings’ psychological and geographical distance from their parental home is larger. Results from intergenerational correlations suggest that parental characteristics are considerably less important than family and community factors. Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers aufgrund einer (DFG-geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich. - This publication is with permission of the rights owner freely accessible due to an Alliance licence and a national licence (funded by the DFG, German Research Foundation) respectively.

This article studies welfare entry and exit in Germany and determines the relevance of state dependence for natives and immigrants. Based on dynamic multinomial logit estimations, we calculate transition matrices between three labour market states. We find that temporal persistence in welfare participation can mostly be explained by observed and unobserved characteristics. Immigrants appear to have a higher risk of welfare entry and a lower probability of welfare exit compared to natives. The results do not yield strong evidence of state dependence or of an overall welfare trap.

This paper analyzes whether individuals have equal opportunity to achieve happiness (or wellbeing). We estimate sibling correlations and intergenerational correlations in self-reported life satisfaction, satisfaction with household income, job satisfaction, and satisfaction with health. We find high sibling correlations for all measures of well-being. The results suggest that family background explains, on average, between 30% and 60% of the inequality in permanent wellbeing. The influence is smaller when the siblings’ psychological and geographical distance from their parental home is larger. Results from intergenerational correlations suggest that parental characteristics are considerably less important than family and community factors.

The 16 German federal states introduced smoking bans on different dates during 2007 and 2008. These bans restricted smoking in enclosed public places, particularly in restaurants and bars. This study examines the effects of smoking bans on self-assessed health. Using data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), difference-in-differences estimations provide evidence for health improvements for the population at large. Health benefits from the secondhand smokefree environment are equivalent to an increase in household income of approximately 30%. Further subgroup analyses show that health improvements are largest among young non-smokers (below 30 years) whereas smokers report no or even adverse health effects in response to bans. Exploiting differences in the dates of introduction and enf orcement, we find no evidence that the effects of bans depend on enforcement measures.

The 16 German federal states introduced smoking bans on different dates during 2007 and 2008. These bans restricted smoking in enclosed public places, particularly in restaurants and bars. This study examines the effects of smoking bans on self-assessed health. Using data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), difference-in-differences estimations provide evidence for health improvements for the population at large. Health benefits from the secondhand smoke-free environment are equivalent to an increase in household income of approximately 30%. Further subgroup analyses show that health improvements are largest among young non-smokers (below 30 years) whereas smokers report no or even adverse health effects in response to bans. Exploiting differences in the dates of introduction and enforcement, we find no evidence that the effects of bans depend on enforcement measures.

We analyze how well-being is related to working time preferences and hours mismatch. Self-reported measures of life satisfaction are used as an empirical approximation of true wellbeing. Our results indicate that well-being is generally lower among workers with working time mismatch. Particularly underemployment is detrimental for well-being. We further provide first evidence on spillovers from the partner's working time mismatch. However, the spillover becomes insignificant once we control for the partner's well-being. This suggests that well-being is contagious, and the spillover is due to interdependent utilities. Females experience the highest well-being when their partner is working full-time hours. Male wellbeing is unaffected over a wide interval of the partner's working hours.

We analyze how well-being is related to working time preferences and hours mismatch. Self-reported measures of life satisfaction are used as an empirical approximation of true wellbeing. Our results indicate that well-being is generally lower among workers with working time mismatch. Particularly underemployment is detrimental for well-being. We further provide first evidence on spillovers from the partner's working time mismatch. However, the spillover becomes insignificant once we control for the partner's well-being. This suggests that well-being is contagious, and the spillover is due to interdependent utilities. Females experience the highest well-being when their partner is working full-time hours. Male wellbeing is unaffected over a wide interval of the partner's working hours.

Posner (1995) proposes the redistribution of health spending from old women to old men to equalize life expectancy. His argument is based on the assumption that women's utility is higher if they are married. Thus, extending the lifespan of men would benefit women. Using life satisfaction data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), we conduct an empirical test of this assumption. We apply a two-step estimation strategy: first, we use a propensity score matching approach to generate a control group of non-widowed women. The average level of life satisfaction in the control group serves as a reference to measure the degree of adaptation to widowhood. In the second step, the life satisfaction trajectories of both groups are estimated using penalized spline regressions. The results suggest bereavement has no enduring effect on life satisfaction, and that falsifies Posner's assumption.

This paper looks at the information content of satisfaction scores. It is argued that the information content depends on the extent to which people adapt to living conditions in general. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), the estimation of a dynamic panel data model provides evidence that adaptation takes place within a relatively short window of time: changes in living conditions are, for the most part, absorbed by an adjustment of the adaptation level within one year. This leads to the conclusion that the information content of satisfaction scores accentuates recent changes in living conditions. Remote changes are notcaptured by the according survey questions, even if these changes have long-term impact on living conditions. The usefulness of satisfaction scores as an indicator of people's living conditions is discussed.

This paper looks at the information content of satisfaction scores. It is argued that the information content depends on the extent to which people adapt to living conditions in general. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), the estimation of a dynamic panel data model provides evidence that adaptation takes place within a relatively short window of time: changes in living conditions are, for the most part, absorbed by an adjustment of the adaptation level within one year. This leads to the conclusion that the information content of satisfaction scores accentuates recent change.

Posner (1995) proposes the redistribution of health spending from old women to old men to equalize life expectancy. His argument is based on the assumption that women's utility is higher if they are married. Thus, extending the lifespan of men would benefit women. Using life satisfaction data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), we conduct an empirical test of this assumption. We apply a two-step estimation strategy: first, we use a propensity score matching approach to generate a control group of non-widowed women. The average level of life satisfaction in the control group serves as a reference to measure the degree of adaptation to widowhood. In the second step, the life satisfaction trajectories of both groups are estimated using penalized spline regressions. The results suggest bereavement has no enduring effect on life satisfaction, and that falsifies Posner's assumption.

This paper applies semiparametric regression models using penalized splines to investigate the profile of well-being over the life span. Splines have the advantage that they do not require a priori assumptions about the form of the curve. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), the analysis shows a common, quite similar, age-specific pattern of life satisfaction for both Britain and Germany that can be characterized by three age stages. In the first stage, life satisfaction declines until approximately the fifth life decade. In the second age stage, well-being clearly increases and has a second turning point (maximum) after which well-being decreases in the third age stage. Several reasons for the three-phase pattern are discussed. We point to the fact that neither polynomial functions of the third nor the fourth degree describe the relationship adequately: polynomials locate the minimum and the maximum imprecisely. In addition, our analysis discusses the indistinguishability of age, period, and cohort effects: we propose estimating age-period models that control for cohort effects including substantive variables, such as the life expectancy of the birth cohort, and further observed socioeconomic characteristics in the regression.

This paper applies semiparametric regression models using penalized splines to investigate the profile of well-being over the life span. Splines have the advantage that they do not require a priori assumptions about the form of the curve. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), the analysis shows a common, quite similar, age-specific pattern of life satisfaction for both Britain and Germany that can be characterized by three age stages. In the first stage, life satisfaction declines until approximately the fifth life decade. In the second age stage, well-being clearly increases and has a second turning point (maximum) after which well-being decreases in the third age stage. Several reasons for the three-phase pattern are discussed. We point to the fact that neither polynomial functions of the third nor the fourth degree describe the relationship adequately: polynomials locate the minimum and the maximum imprecisely. In addition, our analysis discusses the indistinguishability of age, period, and cohort effects: we propose estimating age-period models that control for cohort effects including substantive variables, such as the life expectancy of the birth cohort, and further observed socioeconomic characteristics in the regression.

This article holds the view that intertemporal comparisons of subjective well-being measures are only meaningful when the underlying standards of judgment are unaltered. This is a weak point of such measures. The study investigates the change in the satisfaction judgments resulting from adaptation to income over time. Adaptation is defined to be desensitization (sensitization) to the hedonic effect of income resulting from an upward (downward) adjustment of the standards. A framework is introduced that provides empirical estimates for the rate of adaptation using data from the Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP).

Using merged data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), this paper applies a parametric difference-in-differences approach to assess the real effects of the introduction of the euro on subjective well-being. A complementary nonparametric approach is also used to analyze the impact of difficulties with the new currency on well-being. The results indicate a loss in well-being associated with the introduction of the new currency, with the predicted probability that a person is contented with his/her household income diminishing by 9.7 percentage points. We calculate a compensating income variation of approximately one-third. That is, an increase in post-government household income of more than 30% is needed to compensate for the clear decline in well-being. The reasons for the negative impact are threefold. First, perceived inflation overestimates the real increase in prices resulting in suboptimal consumption decisions. Second, money illusion causes a false assessment of the budget constraint. Third, individuals have to bear the costs from the conversion and the adjustment to the new currency. Moreover, it is thought that losses are higher for persons who have difficulties with the new currency. However, the impact of difficulties in using and converting the new currency is rather small, and the initial problems were overcome within one year of the introduction of euro cash.

Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study 2002, we show that satisfaction with the German public pension system is significantly lower in the younger generation. This effect is independent from the individual economic situation and cannot be observed in earlier years. Whereas long periods of full time employment increase satisfaction with old-age security, unemployment has a significant negative impact. In spite of being rather discontented with old-age security, large parts of the population are mistrustful of a more comprehensive privatization of old-age pensions. In general, the dissatisfied tend to prefer a state-organized old-age security. Most respondents consider state subsidies to be important for private old-age security. However, the incentives do not seem to be suitable for broader implementation of private provision.