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Abstract Background DNA methylation changes with age. Chronological age predictors built from DNA methylation are termed ‘epigenetic clocks’. The deviation of predicted age from the actual age (‘age acceleration residual’, AAR) has been reported to be associated with death. However, it is currently unclear how a better prediction of chronological age affects such association. Methods In this study, we build multiple predictors based on training DNA methylation samples selected from 13,661 samples (13,402 from blood and 259 from saliva). We use the Lothian Birth Cohorts of 1921 (LBC1921) and 1936 (LBC1936) to examine whether the association between AAR (from these predictors) and death is affected by (1) improving prediction accuracy of an age predictor as its training sample size increases (from 335 to 12,710) and (2) additionally correcting for confounders (i.e., cellular compositions). In addition, we investigated the performance of our predictor in non-blood tissues. Results We found that in principle, a near-perfect age predictor could be developed when the training sample size is sufficiently large. The association between AAR and mortality attenuates as prediction accuracy increases. AAR from our best predictor (based on Elastic Net, https://github.com/qzhang314/DNAm-based-age-predictor) exhibits no association with mortality in both LBC1921 (hazard ratio = 1.08, 95% CI 0.91–1.27) and LBC1936 (hazard ratio = 1.00, 95% CI 0.79–1.28). Predictors based on small sample size are prone to confounding by cellular compositions relative to those from large sample size. We observed comparable performance of our predictor in non-blood tissues with a multi-tissue-based predictor. Conclusions This study indicates that the epigenetic clock can be improved by increasing the training sample size and that its association with mortality attenuates with increased prediction of chronological age.

STratifying Resilience and Depression Longitudinally (STRADL) is a population-based study built on the Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (GS:SFHS) resource. The aim of STRADL is to subtype major depressive disorder (MDD) on the basis of its aetiology, using detailed clinical, cognitive, and brain imaging assessments. The GS:SFHS provides an important opportunity to study complex gene-environment interactions, incorporating linkage to existing datasets and inclusion of early-life variables for two longitudinal birth cohorts. Specifically, data collection in STRADL included: socio-economic and lifestyle variables; physical measures; questionnaire data that assesses resilience, early-life adversity, personality, psychological health, and lifetime history of mood disorder; laboratory samples; cognitive tests; and brain magnetic resonance imaging. Some of the questionnaire and cognitive data were first assessed at the GS:SFHS baseline assessment between 2006-2011, thus providing longitudinal measures relevant to the study of depression, psychological resilience, and cognition. In addition, routinely collected historic NHS data and early-life variables are linked to STRADL data, further providing opportunities for longitudinal analysis. Recruitment has been completed and we consented and tested 1,188 participants.