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This study investigates, using statistical analysis and case evidence, whether cooperative China--DPRK relations or China's rise influence the DPRK to act more aggressively toward the ROK--U.S. Statistically, amicable China--DPRK ties have a positive association with the number of DPRK's aggressive actions toward the ROK--U.S. The increase in China--DPRK's material capability relative to that of the ROK--U.S. also positively affected this number. These findings are further supported through case evidence: China's stance toward the DPRK before and after the sinking of the Cheonan in 2010, and the THAAD incident between the DPRK's fourth and fifth nuclear tests in 2016. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article seeks to explore the determinants of China-ROK relations during the period 1993–2018, employing event data and statistical analysis. The analysis found that China's trade dependence on ROK, and vice versa, had a positive effect on China-ROK relations. The relations were also positively affected by China's economic development. In contrast, the relations were negatively affected as China's population aged and while conservative administrations governed ROK. The empirical findings of this article provide essential insights, identifying the factors that promote or hinder the development of cooperative China-ROK relations, suggesting guidelines to policymakers on both sides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]