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Year class strength is an important determinant of fish population size, but the drivers are often unknown. The northern stock of European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) is an important target species for both commercial and recreational fisheries. Scientific assessments showed a rapid decline in spawning stock biomass from 2010-18 attributed to a combination of fishing mortality and poor year class strength. Recruitment to the adult stock is linked to the abundance and temporal dynamics of young bass in estuarine nursery areas, but little is known about the relative importance of environmental and biological drivers on the survival of these young life stages. In this study, we use Generalised Linear Models to attempt to identify important local environmental (sea surface temperature and river flow) and biological (chlorophyll-a concentration and predator abundance) drivers of young sea bass abundance. We focus on seven British and Irish estuarine areas that are important to the northern stock of European sea bass. In four English estuarine areas there were good model fits to the abundance of young sea bass, but predictors differed amongst these suggesting that drivers of abundance may differ among individual nursery areas. This was further demonstrated by poor fits of models generated for English estuaries to interannual patterns of abundance in the Irish nursery areas tested. The differences found in the most important abundance drivers amongst areas highlight the complex and differing dynamics between estuaries. If the number of young bass that eventually join the adult stock is dependent on survivors from a diverse set of unique nursery area conditions, then endeavours to incorporate this knowledge into fisheries management should be further explored.

The sea bass stock around the UK (northern stock) has declined rapidly over the past decade, likely due to a combination of both overfishing and low recruitment. Understanding mechanisms that drive the number of young reaching nursery grounds is important for explaining observed recruitment variability and therefore developing effective management strategies. An individual-based model (IBM) has been developed here to investigate factors affecting sea bass settlement on nursery grounds for the northern stock. Simulations considered seven years with varying environmental conditions and year class strength, and outputs were compared to empirical data from monitoring of nursery areas in the UK and Ireland. The IBM includes hydrodynamics to simulate the drift of eggs and larvae, temperature-dependent growth and mortality, and behavior affecting position in the water column. Comparison between the model and ICES assessment abundance of age class zero fish showed similar temporal variability, but with higher recruitment predicted for 2018, and a lower peak recruitment in 1997. The model reproduced general patterns of interannual variability for the Thames estuary, but performed less well for some other regions. Further investigation is needed to understand differences between modelled supply and observations, as these could be due to uncertainties in reproducing the physical environment (e.g., currents, temperature) or biology (e.g., spawning, behavior, mortality), as well as uncertainty in recruitment derived from stock assessments or data collected from nursery grounds. Nevertheless, the model provides a useful demonstration of connectivity between spawning and nursery grounds, showing spawning regions that are likely to have greatest influence on recruitment in different estuaries, and how these may vary interannually. For example, sources from western Channel and Celtic Sea can supply larvae to many areas, leading to connectivity across the Channel and Celtic Sea, and into the Irish Sea. However, other regions may depend on more local areas. For example, with the Solent estuary dependent on sources within the Channel each year. With the temperature-dependence on growth, and therefore duration of the pelagic stage, results show the potential influence of spawning timing, in relation to ocean temperatures, for connectivity between spawning and nursery grounds.