Search

Aim: The aims were: (1) to identify the environmental drivers of interannual variation in wildfire extent and severity; (2) to examine temporal trends in climatic potential for large and severe wildfires; and (3) to assess whether environmental conditions experienced during the 2019–2020 mega‐fire season were anomalous. Location: South‐eastern Australia. Time period: 1953–2020. Major taxa studied: Temperate forests. Methods: We used satellite‐derived fire severity mapping from 1988 to 2020 to model the effects of drought, weather and fuels on the annual area burned and the proportion of the area burned that was impacted by high‐severity fire across four bioregions. Trends in wildfire extent and severity were then estimated from 1953 to 2020 using these derived models and gridded climate data to assess changes in climatic potential for large and severe wildfires. Estimates of wildfire extent and severity for the 2019–2020 fire season were then assessed against prior seasons (1953–2019). Results: Annual area burned was positively related to the severity of seasonal drought and frequency of fire weather conditions that promote substantial daily fire growth. Wildfire severity was elevated in years with severe fire weather and increased with increasing antecedent drought in years without severe fire weather. Fuels had a lesser effect on wildfire extent and severity than climate. Potential fire extent and severity have increased over time in response to an increased severity of drought and worsening fire weather conditions. Estimates of wildfire extent and severity during the 2019–2020 fire season approached the upper extreme within each bioregion, owing to widespread extreme climatic conditions. Main conclusions: The climatic potential for large and severe forest fires has increased across south‐eastern Australia since the 1950s, probably because of anthropogenic climate change. The magnitude and severity of the 2019–2020 fires reflected climatic conditions that are driving an increase in the size and severity of wildfires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an imperative for fire agencies to quantify the potential for prescribed burning to mitigate risk to life, property and environmental values while facing changing climates. The 2019–2020 Black Summer fires in eastern Australia raised questions about the effectiveness of prescribed burning in mitigating risk under unprecedented fire conditions. We performed a simulation experiment to test the effects of different rates of prescribed burning treatment on risks posed by wildfire to life, property and infrastructure. In four forested case study landscapes, we found that the risks posed by wildfire were substantially higher under the fire weather conditions of the 2019–2020 season, compared to the full range of long-term historic weather conditions. For area burnt and house loss, the 2019–2020 conditions resulted in more than a doubling of residual risk across the four landscapes, regardless of treatment rate (mean increase of 230%, range 164–360%). Fire managers must prepare for a higher level of residual risk as climate change increases the likelihood of similar or even more dangerous fire seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Prescribed burning depends on the availability of suitable weather conditions. • We tested three weather definitions using a regional climate model ensemble. • Changes in the seasonality of burn windows are likely but overall decreases are not. • Results are highly sensitive to how weather conditions are defined. • Results may help fire managers assess their exposure to changes in burn windows. Despite the importance of prescribed burning in contemporary fire management, there is little understanding of how climate change will influence the weather conditions under which it is deployed. We provide quantitative estimates of potential changes in the number of prescribed burning days in coastal NSW in south-eastern Australia, a fire-prone area dominated by dry sclerophyll forests. Burning days are calculated from an objectively designed regional climate model ensemble using three definitions of suitable weather conditions based on: a literature search (Literature), actual weather observed during recorded prescribed burns (Observed) and operational guidelines (Operational). Contrary to some claims, evidence for a decrease in prescribed burning days under projected future climates is weak. We found a complex pattern of changes, with the potential for substantial and widespread increases in the current burning seasons of autumn (March-May) and spring (August-October). Projected changes were particularly uncertain in northern NSW, spanning substantial increases and decreases during autumn. The magnitude of projected changes in the frequency of burning days was highly sensitive to which definition of suitable weather conditions was used, with a relatively small change for the Operational definition (+0.3 to +1.9 days per year across the study area) and larger ranges for the Observed (+0.2 to +7.9 days) and Literature (+1.7 to +6.2 days) definitions. Interannual variability in the number of burning days is projected to increase slightly under projected climate change. Our study highlights the need for a better understanding of the weather conditions required for safe and effective prescribed burning. Our analysis provides practitioners with quantitative information to assess their exposure to a range of potential changes in the frequency, seasonality and variability of prescribed burning weather conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Considerable investments are made in managing fire risk to human assets, including a growing use of fire behaviour simulation tools to allocate expenditure. Understanding fire risk requires estimation of the likelihood of ignition, spread of the fire and impact on assets. The ability to estimate and predict risk requires both the development of ignition likelihood models and the evaluation of these models in novel environments. We developed models for natural and anthropogenic ignitions in the south-eastern Australian state of Victoria incorporating variables relating to fire weather, terrain and the built environment. Fire weather conditions had a consistently positive effect on the likelihood of ignition, although they contributed much more to lightning (57%) and power transmission (55%) ignitions than the 7 other modelled causes (8–32%). The built environment played an important role in driving anthropogenic ignitions. Housing density was the most important variable in most models and proximity to roads had a consistently positive effect. In contrast, the best model for lightning ignitions included a positive relationship with primary productivity, as represented by annual rainfall. These patterns are broadly consistent with previous ignition modelling studies. The models developed for Victoria were tested in the neighbouring fire prone states of South Australia and Tasmania. The anthropogenic ignition model performed well in South Australia (AUC = 0.969) and Tasmania (AUC = 0.848), whereas the natural ignition model only performed well in South Australia (AUC = 0.972; Tasmania AUC = 0.612). Model performance may have been impaired by much lower lightning ignition rates in South Australia and Tasmania than in Victoria. This study shows that the spatial likelihood of ignition can be reliably predicted based on readily available meteorological and biophysical data. Furthermore, the strong performance of anthropogenic and natural ignition models in novel environments suggests there are some universal drivers of ignition likelihood across south-eastern Australia. Highlights • Fire weather conditions have a consistently positive effect on the likelihood of ignition in Victoria, Australia. • Tenure density and proximity to roads are the most important variables in models of anthropogenic ignition likelihood. • Fire weather conditions contribute much more to lightning and power transmission ignitions than other causes. • Models of natural and anthropogenic ignition likelihood in Victoria mostly show high skill in South Australia and Tasmania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-resolution projections of climate change impacts on fire weather conditions in southeast Australia out to 2080 are presented. Fire weather is represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), calculated from an objectively designed regional climate model ensemble. Changes in annual cumulative FFDI vary widely, from − 337 (− 21%) to + 657 (+ 24%) in coastal areas and − 237 (− 12%) to + 1143 (+ 26%) in inland areas. A similar spread is projected in extreme FFDI values. In coastal regions, the number of prescribed burning days is projected to change from − 11 to + 10 in autumn and − 10 to + 3 in spring. Across the ensemble, the most significant increases in fire weather and decreases in prescribed burn windows are projected to take place in spring. Partial bias correction of FFDI leads to similar projections but with a greater spread, particularly in extreme values. The partially bias-corrected FFDI performs similarly to uncorrected FFDI compared to the observed annual cumulative FFDI (ensemble root mean square error spans 540 to 1583 for uncorrected output and 695 to 1398 for corrected) but is generally worse for FFDI values above 50. This emphasizes the need to consider inter-variable relationships when bias-correcting for complex phenomena such as fire weather. There is considerable uncertainty in the future trajectory of fire weather in southeast Australia, including the potential for less prescribed burning days and substantially greater fire danger in spring. Selecting climate models on the basis of multiple criteria can lead to more informative projections and allow an explicit exploration of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present an assessment of the impact of future climate change on two key drivers of fire risk in Australia, fire weather and fuel load. Fire weather conditions are represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), calculated from a 12-member regional climate model ensemble. Fuel load is predicted from net primary production, simulated using a land surface model forced by the same regional climate model ensemble. Mean annual fine litter is projected to increase across all ensemble members, by 1.2 to 1.7 t ha in temperate areas, 0.3 to 0.5 t ha in grassland areas and 0.7 to 1.1 t ha in subtropical areas. Ensemble changes in annual cumulative FFDI vary widely, from 57 to 550 in temperate areas, −186 to 1372 in grassland areas and −231 to 907 in subtropical areas. These results suggest that uncertainty in FFDI projections will be underestimated if only a single driving model is used. The largest increases in fuel load and fire weather are projected to occur in spring. Deriving fuel load from a land surface model may be possible in other regions, when this information is not directly available from climate model outputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A data set of observed fire weather in Australia from 1973-2010 is analysed for trends using the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI). Annual cumulative FFDI, which integrates daily fire weather across the year, increased significantly at 16 of 38 stations. Annual 90th percentile FFDI increased significantly at 24 stations over the same period. None of the stations examined recorded a significant decrease in FFDI. There is an overall bias in the number of significant increases towards the southeast of the continent, while the largest trends occur in the interior of the continent and the smallest occur near the coast. The largest increases in seasonal FFDI occurred during spring and autumn, although with different spatial patterns, while summer recorded the fewest significant trends. These trends suggest increased fire weather conditions at many locations across Australia, due to both increased magnitude of FFDI and a lengthened fire season. Although these trends are consistent with projected impacts of climate change on FFDI, this study cannot separate the influence of climate change, if any, with that of natural variability. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire regimes are changing across the globe in response to complex interactions between climate, fuel, and fire across space and time. Despite these complex interactions, research into predicting fire regime change is often unidimensional, typically focusing on direct relationships between fire activity and climate, increasing the chances of erroneous fire predictions that have ignored feedbacks with, for example, fuel loads and availability. Here, we quantify the direct and indirect role of climate on fire regime change in eucalypt dominated landscapes using a novel simulation approach that uses a landscape fire modelling framework to simulate fire regimes over decades to centuries. We estimated the relative roles of climate‐mediated changes as both direct effects on fire weather and indirect effects on fuel load and structure in a full factorial simulation experiment (present and future weather, present and future fuel) that included six climate ensemble members. We applied this simulation framework to predict changes in fire regimes across six temperate forested landscapes in south‐eastern Australia that encompass a broad continuum from climate‐limited to fuel‐limited. Climate‐mediated change in weather and fuel was predicted to intensify fire regimes in all six landscapes by increasing wildfire extent and intensity and decreasing fire interval, potentially led by an earlier start to the fire season. Future weather was the dominant factor influencing changes in all the tested fire regime attributes: area burnt, area burnt at high intensity, fire interval, high‐intensity fire interval, and season midpoint. However, effects of future fuel acted synergistically or antagonistically with future weather depending on the landscape and the fire regime attribute. Our results suggest that fire regimes are likely to shift across temperate ecosystems in south‐eastern Australia in coming decades, particularly in climate‐limited systems where there is the potential for a greater availability of fuels to burn through increased aridity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2019-20 Australian fire season was heralded as emblematic of the catastrophic harm wrought by climate change. Similarly extreme wildfire seasons have occurred across the globe in recent years. Here, we apply a pyrogeographic lens to the recent Australian fires to examine the range of causes, impacts and responses. We find that the extensive area burnt was due to extreme climatic circumstances. However, antecedent hazard reduction burns (prescribed burns with the aim of reducing fuel loads) were effective in reducing fire severity and house loss, but their effectiveness declined under extreme weather conditions. Impacts were disproportionately borne by socially disadvantaged regional communities. Urban populations were also impacted through prolonged smoke exposure. The fires produced large carbon emissions, burnt fire-sensitive ecosystems and exposed large areas to the risk of biodiversity decline by being too frequently burnt in the future. We argue that the rate of change in fire risk delivered by climate change is outstripping the capacity of our ecological and social systems to adapt. A multi-lateral approach is required to mitigate future fire risk, with an emphasis on reducing the vulnerability of people through a reinvigoration of community-level capacity for targeted actions to complement mainstream fire management capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most forests are inherently flammable and can burn whenever the fine dead surface fuels dry out to ignitable levels, which has been shown to only take a few weeks of dry warm weather conditions in temperate eucalypt forests of Southeast Australia. At the landscape scale, potential for large fires strongly increases with the spatial connectivity of dry fuel areas and with the duration of this connected dry fuel state, which we refer to as a critical forest flammability event. To quantify the potential for landscape scale forest fire thus requires: (i) spatially continuous predictions of daily fine dead fuel moisture content (FM), and (ii) objective identification of critical FM thresholds controlling the likelihood of major landscape fire events in global forest regions. Here, we apply a physically-based model for prediction of FM from gridded daily vapour pressure deficit data to create 30-year global climatologies of daily FM under current (1980-2017) and projected future climates. Critical FM thresholds were identified for global forest regions under current climate using global burned area data and the monthly distribution of predicted FM for the fire-affected areas. The mean annual frequency of critical forest flammability events was then calculated for current and future climates as the number of days per year that predicted FM drops below the empirically derived FM thresholds for major landscape fire. We demonstrate the potential of this approach for global forest regions using two global climate models and two representative concentration pathways.Identifying global forest regions that may transition to increasing or decreasing frequencies of critical forest flammability events could help fire managers and other decision makers with strategic planning and prioritisation of resource allocation and scientific research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prescribed burning is used globally to mitigate the risks of wildfires, with severe wildfires increasing in frequency in recent decades. Despite their importance in wildfire management, the nature of future changes to prescribed burn windows under global warming remains uncertain. We use a regional climate projection ensemble to provide a robust spatiotemporal quantification of statistically significant future changes in prescribed burn windows for southeastern Australia. There are significant decreases during months presently used for prescribed burning, that is, in March to May in 2060–2079 versus 1990–2009 across several temperate regions. Conversely, burn windows show widespread significant increases in June to August, that is, months when burns have rarely occurred historically, and also in spring (September–October). Overall, projected changes in temperature and fuel moisture show the most widespread and largest decreases (or increases) in the number of days within their respective ranges suitable for conducting burns. These results support wildfire risk mitigation planning. Plain Language Summary: The frequency of destructive wildfires is increasing in many fire‐prone regions, threatening lives, property, and damaging the environment. To reduce the risk of wildfires occurring, agencies conduct planned, controlled, and preemptive burns of vegetation to reduce the available fuel load. Currently, in southeastern Australia, these "prescribed burns" are conducted during autumn (March–May) and early spring (September) but rarely during winter (June–August). Given climate change, we need to understand how opportunities for conducting these burns might change in future. This is particularly important for forest and woodland areas adjacent to populated urban areas. We use regional climate projection data to assess future changes to the suitability for prescribed burning. We demonstrate that over many regions, windows are projected to decrease during months currently used for conducting burns in 2060–2079 compared to 1990–2009. In contrast, they generally increase in the winter months and further into spring (September–October). This change in seasonality means that these periods could be more suitable for conducting burns in future. Future changes in burn windows are most strongly associated with changes in temperature and vegetation moisture content, though there are many other contributing factors to these changes. These findings are relevant to strategic wildfire prevention and regional risk mitigation. Key Points: Significant decreases in wildfire mitigation windows occur in March–May in 2060–2079 versus 1990–2009 but increase in June–August in 2060–2079Projected temperature and fuel moisture changes have the largest contribution to the change in the wildfire mitigation windowLocations in southeast Australia where changes in wildfire mitigation windows are projected to occur are identified on a monthly basis [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A correction to the article "An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia," that was published in the October 3, 2016 issue is presented.

Elevated atmospheric [CO2] ('eCO2') may alter species composition within vegetation types by favouring the growth of some species over others. However, other related changes in climate conditions, such as increased frequency and severity of drought, may reduce eCO2 fertilisation effects on plant growth. For many species, it is not known if responses will reflect variability in trait adaptations due to environment.We grew seedlings of nine species of eucalypts indicative of three regional vegetation types (representing a mesic–xeric ecosystem gradient) under two CO2 concentrations (400 parts per million; 640 ppm, i.e. eCO2) and two watering regimes (well‐watered; drought‐like conditions).Elevated CO2 increased biomass accumulation but drought reduced this effect, with mesic species experiencing larger relative reductions. Elevated CO2 increased the size of storage organs used during resprouting, in the absence of drought. Typical drought responses, such as increased leaf mass per unit area and root mass ratio, were more pronounced in xeric species and were reduced under eCO2.Seedling growth and resprouting may be enhanced by eCO2, suggesting continued dominance of resprouting species in disturbance‐prone ecosystems, although severe drought is likely to offset eCO2 fertilisation. Xeric species may cope with drought more effectively under eCO2 than mesic species due to resource acquisition and storage traits that are more responsive. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Many species are adapted to a particular fire regime and major deviations from that regime may lead to localized extinction. Here, we quantify immaturity risks to an obligate‐seeder forest tree using an objectively designed climate model ensemble and a probabilistic fire regime simulator to predict future fire regimes. Location: Alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis) distribution, Victoria, south‐eastern Australia. Methods: We used a fire regime model (FROST) with six climate projections from a climate model ensemble across 3.7 million hectares of native forest and non‐native vegetation to examine immaturity risks to obligate‐seeder forests dominated by alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), which has a primary juvenile period of approximately 20 years. Our models incorporated current and future projected climate including fuel feedbacks to simulate fire regimes over 100 years. We then used Random Forest modelling to evaluate which spatial characteristics of the landscape were associated with high immaturity risks to alpine ash forest patches. Results: Significant shifts to the fire regime were predicted under all six future climate projections. Increases in both wildfire extent (total area burnt, area burnt at high intensity) and frequency were predicted with an average increase of up to 110 hectares burnt annually by short‐interval fires (i.e., within the expected minimum time to reproductive maturity). The immaturity risk posed by short‐interval fires to alpine ash forest patches was well explained by Random Forest models and varied with both location and environmental variables. Main conclusions: Alpine ash forests are predicted to be burned at greater intensities and shorter intervals under future fire regimes. About 67% of the current alpine ash distribution was predicted to be at some level of immaturity risk over the 100‐year modelling period, with the greatest risks to those patches located on the periphery of the current distribution, closer to roads or surrounded by a drier landscape at lower elevations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mistletoes are emerging as important co-contributors to tree mortality across terrestrial ecosystems, particularly when infected trees are stressed by water limitations during drought. While the mechanistic effects of mistletoe infection on host physiology are reasonably well understood, quantifying the effects of mistletoe infection on stand productivity, canopy turnover and ecosystem structure remains challenging. Moreover, the potential devastating effect of mistletoe infection on host survival has distracted from the challenges that mistletoe populations are facing when increasing drought and heat stress threaten their survival in healthy populations. We coupled intensive observations of mistletoe population dynamics with measurements of host tree stem growth, canopy turnover and stand structure in a severely infected temperate eucalypt woodland to monitor how mistletoe infection alters aboveground biomass distribution and to assess ecosystem recovery from severe mistletoe infection during and after a three-year drought. We show that severe mistletoe infection reduces live standing biomass and canopy volume, with mistletoe leaves contributing up to 43% to total stand litter fall. We further identified that a mistletoe:host leaf area ratio above 60% significantly reduced basal area growth, which provides a threshold for productivity losses due to mistletoe infection in eucalypts. Yet, concurrent increases in basal area and the thickening of canopy volume indicate that host trees recover rapidly after the three-year drought combined with record summer heat nearly extinguished the mistletoe population. How common, or how widespread such dynamic changes in mistletoe population dynamics are within Australian or global ecosystems remains subject to further exploration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

GLO:EVN/01mar20:gcb14987-fig-0001.jpg PHOTO (COLOR): (a) Burned areas in the 2019-20 fire season (data from the New South Wales [NSW] Rural Fire Service, 29/12/2019), and extent of forests and woodlands (Australian Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, 2019). Wildfire refugia in forests: Severe fire weather and drought mute the influence of topography and fuel age. How drought-induced forest die-off alters microclimate and increases fuel loadings and fire potentials. [Extracted from the article]

Aim Prescribed fire is a common land management for reducing risks from unplanned fires. However, the universality of such effectiveness remains uncertain due to biogeographical variation in fuel types, climatic influences and fire regimes. Here, we explore biogeographical patterns in the effectiveness of prescribed fire by calculating leverage (the reduction in unplanned area burnt resulting from recent previous area burnt) across south-eastern Australia over a 25 year period. Location The 30 bioregions of south-eastern Australia. Methods We quantified leverage in each bioregion from fire records from 1975-2009, controlling for variation in annual weather. We also identified potential drivers of variation in leverage by relating the bioregional leverage values to measures of fuel type and growth, climate, and weather extremes. Results Leverage was inferred in four bioregions while in the other 26 bioregions no leverage was detected or prescribed fire had the opposite effect (fire-follows-fire). Leverage occurred in the forested eastern section of the study area, where rainfall, fuel load and fire activity is high and fire weather is mild. In all bioregions, weather was a stronger predictor than past-fire extent of area burnt in a particular year. Main conclusions Our analysis of leverage shows that the effectiveness of prescribed fire varies regionally in predictable ways, which means that fuel management strategies applied in one region are not necessarily applicable in another. In most bioregions prescribed burning is likely to have very little effect on subsequent extent of unplanned fire, and even in regions where leverage occurs, large areas of treatment are required to substantially reduce the area burned by unplanned fire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of fire to climate change may vary across fuel types characteristic of differing vegetation types (i.e. litter vs. grass). Models of fire under climatic change capture these differing potential responses to varying degrees. Across south-eastern Australia, an elevation in the severity of weather conditions conducive to fire has been measured in recent decades. We examined trends in area burned (1975-2009) to determine if a corresponding increase in fire had occurred across the diverse range of ecosystems found in this part of the continent. We predicted that an increase in fire, due to climatic warming and drying, was more likely to have occurred in moist, temperate forests near the coast than in arid and semiarid woodlands of the interior, due to inherent contrasts in the respective dominant fuel types (woody litter vs. herbaceous fuels). Significant warming (i.e. increased temperature and number of hot days) and drying (i.e. negative precipitation anomaly, number of days with low humidity) occurred across most of the 32 Bioregions examined. The results were mostly consistent with predictions, with an increase in area burned in seven of eight forest Bioregions, whereas area burned either declined (two) or did not change significantly (nine) in drier woodland Bioregions. In 12 woodland Bioregions, data were insufficient for analysis of temporal trends in fire. Increases in fire attributable mostly to warming or drying were confined to three Bioregions. In the remainder, such increases were mostly unrelated to warming or drying trends and therefore may be due to other climate effects not explored (e.g. lightning ignitions) or possible anthropogenic influences. Projections of future fire must therefore not only account for responses of different fuel systems to climatic change but also the wider range of ecological and human effects on interactions between fire and vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Previous studies have shown that the overexpression of tropomyosins leads to isoform-specific alterations in the morphology of subcellular compartments in neuronal cells. Here we have examined the role of the most abundant set of isoforms from the γ-Tm gene by knocking out the alternatively spliced C-terminal exon 9d. Despite the widespread location of exon 9d-containing isoforms, mice were healthy and viable. Compensation by products containing the C-terminal exon 9c was seen in the adult brain. While neurons from these mice show a mild phenotype at one day in culture, neurons revealed a significant morphological alteration with an increase in the branching of dendrites and axons after four days in culture. Our data suggest that this effect is mediated via altered stability of actin filaments in the growth cones. We conclude that exon 9d-containing isoforms are not essential for survival of neuronal cells and that isoform choice from the γ-Tm gene is flexible in the brain. Although functional redundancy does not exist between tropomyosin genes, these results suggest that significant redundancy exists between products from the same gene. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This article is a Response to Adams et al. 26, 3756–3758. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]