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Abstract Background Analysing the observed differences for incidence or mortality of a particular disease between two different situations (such as time points, geographical areas, gender or other social characteristics) can be useful both for scientific or administrative purposes. From an epidemiological and public health point of view, it is of great interest to assess the effect of demographic factors in these observed differences in order to elucidate the effect of the risk of developing a disease or dying from it. The method proposed by Bashir and Estève, which splits the observed variation into three components: risk, population structure and population size is a common choice at practice. Results A web-based application, called RiskDiff has been implemented (available at http://rht.iconcologia.net/riskdiff.htm), to perform this kind of statistical analyses, providing text and graphical summaries. Code from the implemented functions in R is also provided. An application to cancer mortality data from Catalonia is used for illustration. Conclusions Combining epidemiological with demographical factors is crucial for analysing incidence or mortality from a disease, especially if the population pyramids show substantial differences. The tool implemented may serve to promote and divulgate the use of this method to give advice for epidemiologic interpretation and decision making in public health.

Purpose: Dietary guidelines for egg consumption for general population differ among public health agencies. Our aim was to investigate the association between egg intake and both all-cause and specific-cause of mortality in a Mediterranean population., Methods: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Spain cohort included 40,621 men and women aged 29-69 years old in the nineties from 5 Spanish regions. After a mean of 18 years of follow-up, 3,561 deaths were recorded, of which 1,694 were from cancer, 761 from CVD, and 870 from other causes. Data on egg consumption was collected using a validated diet history at recruitment. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for confounders, were used in the analyses., Results: The mean (standard deviation) egg consumption was 22.0 g/day (15.8) and 30.9 g/day (23.1) in women and men, respectively. No association was observed between egg consumption and all-cause mortality for the highest vs the lowest quartile (HR 1.01; 95% CI 0.91-1.11; P trend = 0.96). Likewise, no association was observed with cancer and cardiovascular diseases mortality. However, an inverse association was found between egg consumption and deaths for other causes (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.63-0.93; P trend = 0.003), particularly for deaths from the nervous system (HR 0.59; 95% CI 0.35-1.00; P trend = 0.036). No interaction was detected with the adherence to Mediterranean diet., Conclusions: This study shows no association between moderate egg consumption, up to 1 egg per day, and main causes of mortality in a large free-living Mediterranean population.

Background: The RARECAREnet project has updated the estimates of the burden of the 198 rare cancers in each European country. Suspecting that scant data could affect the reliability of statistical analysis, we employed a Bayesian approach to estimate the incidence of these cancers., Methods: We analyzed about 2,000,000 rare cancers diagnosed in 2000-2007 provided by 83 population-based cancer registries from 27 European countries. We considered European incidence rates (IRs), calculated over all the data available in RARECAREnet, as a valid a priori to merge with country-specific observed data. Therefore we provided (1) Bayesian estimates of IRs and the yearly numbers of cases of rare cancers in each country; (2) the expected time (T) in years needed to observe one new case; and (3) practical criteria to decide when to use the Bayesian approach., Results: Bayesian and classical estimates did not differ much; substantial differences (>10%) ranged from 77 rare cancers in Iceland to 14 in England. The smaller the population the larger the number of rare cancers needing a Bayesian approach. Bayesian estimates were useful for cancers with fewer than 150 observed cases in a country during the study period; this occurred mostly when the population of the country is small., Conclusion: For the first time the Bayesian estimates of IRs and the yearly expected numbers of cases for each rare cancer in each individual European country were calculated. Moreover, the indicator T is useful to convey incidence estimates for exceptionally rare cancers and in small countries; it far exceeds the professional lifespan of a medical doctor., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: To project future smoking prevalence rates in Spain by sex and age groups using Bayesian methods and to estimate the probability of a 30% relative reduction between 2010 and 2025., Methods: We used the data from the Spanish National Health Surveys (2003, 2006, and 2011) to obtain information about current and former smoking. We reconstructed annual smoking rates from 1989 through 2011 by sex and 5-year age groups. The prevalence were projected for the period 2012-2025 using a Bayesian logistic binomial model and estimated the probability to achieve the 30% relative reduction endorsed by the WHO. We calculated the 95% credible interval (CrI) of the posterior distribution, which includes a 95% of the distribution of potential smoking prevalences., Results: In men, the projections show a decline for crude (-2.64% annually, 95% CrI: -3.32; -1.97) and adjusted (-2.50%, 95% CrI:-3.14; -1.87) prevalence. In women, the projections show a decline for crude prevalence (-0.36%, 95% CrI: -1.02; -0.30)) and the age-adjusted prevalence (-1.02%, 95% CrI: -1.61, -0.47). By age groups, the decline is greater among women aged 15-39 years (-3.92%, 95% CrI: -4.92; -2.96)) while for women aged 40-64 years an increase (1.84%, 95% CrI: 1.06; 2.58) is expected. In men, the probability to achieve the WHO target is 0.728 and in women is less than 0.001. The age group 15-39 shows the highest probability to achieve the target., Conclusions: The results suggest smoking prevalence will decrease during 2012-2025 in all age groups for both sexes except for women aged 40-64. We found that the WHO target of a 30% reduction in prevalence is likely to be achieved overall and in the 15-39 years age groups for both sexes, but not achieved for older women and it is uncertain whether it will be achieved for older men. These results highlight the need to strengthen public health interventions that focus on reducing tobacco use in adult women aged 40-64 years old., Implications: We project a decrease in smoking prevalence in during 2012-2025 except for women aged 40-64. The WHO Target of a 30% relative reduction could be achieved in the population aged 15-39; but not in women and the results are inconclusive in men. These results highlight the need to strengthen public health interventions that focus on reducing tobacco use in adult women aged 40-64 years old.

Background: Dietary flavonoids and lignans may protect against several chronic diseases, but there is little evidence on the relationship between flavonoid and lignan intake and mortality. We investigated the association between both all-cause and specific-cause mortality and intake of flavonoids and lignans in the Spanish European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Spain) cohort., Methods: The EPIC-Spain study follows 40,622 participants (38% men) aged 29-69 years. A validated diet history questionnaire was administered at recruitment. A food composition database was compiled based on US Department of Agriculture and Phenol-Explorer databases. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for confounders, were used in the analyses., Results: During a mean follow-up of 13.6 years, 1915 deaths were reported, with 416 from cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and 956 from cancer. After adjustment for several potential confounders, the hazard ratios (HRs) for the highest versus the lowest quintile of dietary flavanone and flavonol intakes were 0.60 (95% confidence interval = 0.38-0.94) and 0.59 (0.40-0.88). Total flavonoid intake was also associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality (0.71 [0.49-1.03]). Lignan intake was not associated with all-cause mortality. In cause-specific mortality analyses, using competing risk regressions, doubling total flavonoid intake was inversely related to mortality from CVD (HR for log2 0.87 [0.77-0.98]), but not to mortality from either cancer (HR for log2 0.96 [0.89-1.04]) or other causes (HR for log2 0.97 [0.87-1.09])., Conclusions: A diet high in flavonoids, particularly in flavanones and flavonols, is associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality, mainly of mortality from CVD.