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Zoonotic disease surveillance is typically triggered after animal pathogens have already infected humans. Are there ways to identify high-risk viruses before they emerge in humans? If so, then how and where can identifications be made and by what methods? These were the fundamental questions driving a workshop to examine the future of predictive surveillance for viruses that might jump from animals to infect humans. Virologists, ecologists and computational biologists from academia, federal government and non-governmental organizations discussed opportunities as well as obstacles to the prediction of species jumps using genetic and ecological data from viruses and their hosts, vectors and reservoirs. This workshop marked an important first step towards envisioning both scientific and organizational frameworks for this future capability. Canine parvoviruses as well as seasonal H3N2 and pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses are discussed as exemplars that suggest what to look for in anticipating species jumps. To answer the question of where to look, prospects for discovering emerging viruses among wildlife, bats, rodents, arthropod vectors and occupationally exposed humans are discussed. Finally, opportunities and obstacles are identified and accompanied by suggestions for how to look for species jumps. Taken together, these findings constitute the beginnings of a conceptual framework for achieving a virus surveillance capability that could predict future species jumps.

Abstract Background RNA viruses evolve extremely quickly, allowing them to rapidly adapt to new environmental conditions. Viral pathogens, such as influenza virus, exploit this capacity for evolutionary change to persist within the human population despite substantial immune pressure. Understanding the process of adaptation in these viral systems is essential to our efforts to combat infectious disease. Results Through analysis of simulated populations and sequence data from influenza A (H3N2) and measles virus, we show how phylogenetic and population genetic techniques can be used to assess the strength and temporal pattern of adaptive evolution. The action of natural selection affects the shape of the genealogical tree connecting members of an evolving population, causing deviations from the neutral expectation. The magnitude and distribution of these deviations lends insight into the historical pattern of evolution and adaptation in the viral population. We quantify the degree of ongoing adaptation in influenza and measles virus through comparison of census population size and effective population size inferred from genealogical patterns, finding a 60-fold greater deviation in influenza than in measles. We also examine the tempo of adaptation in influenza, finding evidence for both continuous and episodic change. Conclusions Our results have important consequences for understanding the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of the influenza virus. Additionally, these general techniques may prove useful to assess the strength and pattern of adaptive evolution in a variety of evolving systems. They are especially powerful when assessing selection in fast-evolving populations, where temporal patterns become highly visible.

The role of viral interaction-where one virus enhances or inhibits infection with another virus-in respiratory virus transmission is not well characterized. This study used data from 4029 total participants from 957 households who participated in a prospective household cohort study in Southeast Michigan, U.S.A to examine how viral coinfection and cocirculation may impact transmission of symptomatic influenza and respiratory syncytial virus infections. We utilized multivariable mixed effects regression to estimate transmission risk when index cases were coinfected with multiple viruses and when viruses cocirculated within households. This analysis included 201 coinfections involving influenza A virus, 67 involving influenza B virus, and 181 involving respiratory syncytial virus. We show that exposure to symptomatic coinfected index cases was associated with reduced risk of influenza A virus and respiratory syncytial virus transmission compared to exposure to singly infected cases, while infection with another virus was associated with increased risk of acquisition of these viruses. Exposure to coinfected cases among contacts infected with other viruses was associated with increased risk of influenza B virus acquisition. These results suggest that viral interaction may impact symptomatic transmission of these viruses., Competing Interests: Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2025. The Author(s).)

Studies have reported that prior-season influenza vaccination is associated with higher risk of clinical influenza infection among vaccinees. This effect might arise from incomplete consideration of within-season waning and recent infection. Using data from the US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Network (2011-2012 to 2018-2019 seasons), we found that repeat vaccinees were vaccinated earlier in a season by 1 week. After accounting for waning VE, we determined that repeat vaccinees were still more likely to test positive for A(H3N2) (odds ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.02-1.21) but not influenza B or A(H1N1). We documented clinical infection influenced individuals' decision to vaccinate in the following season while protecting against clinical infection of the same type/subtype. However, adjusting for recent documented clinical infections did not strongly influence the estimated effect of prior-season vaccination. In contrast, we found that adjusting for subclinical or undocumented infection could theoretically attenuate this effect. Additional investigation is needed to determine the impact of subclinical infections on vaccine effectiveness., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. All authors: No reported conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Avian H5N1 influenza viruses are circulating widely in cattle and other mammals and pose a risk for a human pandemic. Previous studies suggest that older humans are more resistant to H5N1 infections due to childhood imprinting with other group 1 viruses (H1N1 and H2N2); however, the immunological basis for this is incompletely understood. Here we show that antibody titers to historical and recent H5N1 strains are highest in older individuals and correlate more strongly with year of birth than with age, consistent with immune imprinting. After vaccination with an A/Vietnam/1203/2004 H5N1 vaccine, both younger and older humans produced H5-reactive antibodies to the vaccine strain and to a clade 2.3.4.4b isolate currently circulating in cattle, with higher seroconversion rates in young children who had lower levels of antibodies before vaccination. These studies suggest that younger individuals might benefit more from vaccination than older individuals in the event of an H5N1 pandemic., Competing Interests: Competing Interests Statement S.E.H. is a co-inventor on patents that describe the use of nucleoside-modified mRNA as a vaccine platform. S.E.H reports receiving consulting fees from Sanofi, Pfizer, Lumen, Novavax, and Merck. T.A.G. was an employee of the University of Pennsylvania when the work was completed and is now an employee of GSK. The authors declare no other competing interests.

Background: For antigenically variable pathogens such as influenza, strain fitness is partly determined by the relative availability of hosts susceptible to infection with that strain compared with others. Antibodies to the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) confer substantial protection against influenza infection. We asked if a cross-sectional antibody-derived estimate of population susceptibility to different clades of influenza A (H3N2) could predict the success of clades in the following season., Methods: We collected sera from 483 healthy individuals aged 1 to 90 years in the summer of 2017 and analyzed neutralizing responses to the HA and NA of representative strains using focus reduction neutralization tests (FNRT) and enzyme-linked lectin assays (ELLA). We estimated relative population-average and age-specific susceptibilities to circulating viral clades and compared those estimates to changes in clade frequencies in the following 2017-2018 season., Results: The clade to which neutralizing antibody titers were lowest, indicating greater population susceptibility, dominated the next season. Titer correlations between viral strains varied by age, suggesting age-associated differences in epitope targeting driven by shared past exposures. Yet substantial unexplained variation remains within age groups., Conclusions: This study indicates how representative measures of population immunity might improve evolutionary forecasts and inform selective pressures on influenza., (© 2024 The Author(s). Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Immune memory determines infection risk and responses to future infections and vaccinations over potentially decades of life. Despite its centrality, the dynamics of memory to antigenically variable pathogens remains poorly understood. This Review examines how past exposures shape B cell responses to vaccinations with influenza and SARS-CoV-2. An overriding feature of vaccinations with these pathogens is the recall of primary responses, often termed 'imprinting' or 'original antigenic sin'. These recalled responses can inhibit the generation of new responses unless some incompletely defined conditions are met. Depending on the context, immune memory can increase or decrease the total neutralizing antibody response to variant antigens, with apparent consequences for protection. These effects are easier to measure experimentally than epidemiologically, but there is evidence that both early and recent exposures influence vaccine effectiveness. A few immunological interactions between adaptive immune responses and antigens might explain the seemingly discrepant effects of memory. Overall, the complex observations point to a need for more quantitative approaches to integrate high-dimensional immune data from populations with diverse exposure histories. Such approaches could help identify optimal vaccination strategies against antigenically diverse pathogens., (© 2024. Springer Nature America, Inc.)

The high genetic diversity of influenza viruses means that traditional serological assays have too low throughput to measure serum antibody neutralization titers against all relevant strains. To overcome this challenge, we developed a sequencing-based neutralization assay that simultaneously measures titers against many viral strains using small serum volumes using a workflow similar to traditional neutralization assays. The key innovation is to incorporate unique nucleotide barcodes into the hemagglutinin (HA) genomic segment, and then pool viruses with numerous different barcoded HA variants and quantify the infectivity of all of them simultaneously using next-generation sequencing. With this approach, a single researcher performed the equivalent of 2,880 traditional neutralization assays (80 serum samples against 36 viral strains) in approximately 1 month. We applied the sequencing-based assay to quantify the impact of influenza vaccination on neutralization titers against recent human H1N1 strains for individuals who had or had not also received a vaccine in the previous year. We found that the viral strain specificities of the neutralizing antibodies elicited by vaccination vary among individuals and that vaccination induced a smaller increase in titers for individuals who had also received a vaccine the previous year-although the titers 6 months after vaccination were similar in individuals with and without the previous-year vaccination. We also identified a subset of individuals with low titers to a subclade of recent H1N1 even after vaccination. We provide an experimental protocol (dx.doi.org/10.17504/protocols.io.kqdg3xdmpg25/v1) and computational pipeline (https://github.com/jbloomlab/seqneut-pipeline) for the sequencing-based neutralization assays to facilitate the use of this method by others., Importance: We describe a new approach that can rapidly measure how the antibodies in human serum inhibit infection by many different influenza strains. This new approach is useful for understanding how viral evolution affects antibody immunity. We apply the approach to study the effect of repeated influenza vaccination., Competing Interests: J.D.B. is on the scientific advisory boards of Apriori Bio, Invivyd, and the Vaccine Company. J.D.B. and A.N.L. receive royalty payments as inventors on Fred Hutch licensed patents related to incorporating barcodes into the influenza genome and viral deep mutational scanning. B.J.C. has consulted for AstraZeneca, Fosun Pharma, GlaxoSmithKline, Haleon, Moderna, Novavax, Pfizer, Roche, and Sanofi Pasteur. S.C. has consulted for CSL Seqirus.

Background: Studies have reported that repeated annual vaccination may influence influenza vaccination effectiveness in the current season., Methods: We established a 5-year randomized placebo-controlled trial of repeated influenza vaccination (Flublok; Sanofi Pasteur) in adults 18-45 years of age. In the first 2 years, participants were randomized to receive vaccine or saline placebo as follows: placebo-placebo (P-P), placebo-vaccine (P-V), or vaccine-vaccine (V-V). Serum samples were collected each year just before vaccination and after 30 and 182 days. A subset of serum samples collected at 5 time points from 95 participants were tested for antibodies against vaccine strains., Results: From 23 October 2020 through 11 March 2021 we enrolled and randomized 447 adults. Among vaccinated individuals, antibody titers increased between days 0 and 30 against each of the vaccine strains, with smaller increases for repeat vaccinees who on average had higher prevaccination titers in year 2. There were statistically significant differences in the proportions of participants achieving ≥4-fold rises in antibody titer for the repeat vaccinees for influenza A(H1N1), B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata, but not for A(H3N2). Among participants who received vaccination in year 2, there were no significant differences between the P-V and V-V groups in geometric mean titers at day 30 or the proportions of participants with antibody titers ≥40 at day 30 for any of the vaccine strains., Conclusions: In the first 2 years, during which influenza did not circulate, repeat and first-time vaccinees had similar postvaccination geometric mean titers to all 4 vaccine strains, indicative of similar levels of clinical protection. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04576377., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest . B. J. C. consults for AstraZeneca, Fosun Pharma, GlaxoSmithKline, Haleon, Moderna, Novavax, Pfizer, Roche, and Sanofi Pasteur. S. E. H. is a coinventor on patents that describe the use of nucleoside-modified messenger RNA as a vaccine platform; S. E. H. also reports receiving consulting fees from Sanofi, Pfizer, Lumen, Novavax, and Merck. S. C. has consulted for Seqirus. All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Observations of pathogen community structure provide evidence for both the coexistence and replacement of related strains. Despite many studies of specific host-pathogen systems, a unifying framework for predicting the outcomes of interactions among pathogens has remained elusive. We address this gap by developing a pathogen invasion theory (PIT) based on modern ecological coexistence theory and testing the resulting framework against empirical systems. Across major human pathogens, PIT predicts near-universal mutual susceptibility of one strain to invasion by another strain. However, predicting co-circulation from mutual invasion also depends on the degree to which susceptible abundance is reduced below the invasion threshold by overcompensatory epidemic dynamics, and the time it takes for susceptibles to replenish. The transmission advantage of an invading strain and the strength and duration of immunity are key determinants of susceptible dynamics. PIT unifies existing ideas about pathogen co-circulation, offering a quantitative framework for predicting the emergence of novel pathogen strains.

Many pathogens evolve to escape immunity, yet it remains difficult to predict whether immune pressure will lead to diversification, serial replacement of one variant by another, or more complex patterns. Pathogen strain dynamics are mediated by cross-protective immunity, whereby exposure to one strain partially protects against infection by antigenically diverged strains. There is growing evidence that this protection is influenced by early exposures, a phenomenon referred to as original antigenic sin (OAS) or imprinting. In this paper, we derive constraints on the emergence of the pattern of successive strain replacements demonstrated by influenza, SARS-CoV-2, seasonal coronaviruses, and other pathogens. We find that OAS implies that the limited diversity found with successive strain replacement can only be maintained if [Formula: see text] is less than a threshold set by the characteristic antigenic distances for cross-protection and for the creation of new immune memory. This bound implies a "speed limit" on the evolution of new strains and a minimum variance of the distribution of infecting strains in antigenic space at any time. To carry out this analysis, we develop a theoretical model of pathogen evolution in antigenic space that implements OAS by decoupling the antigenic distances required for protection from infection and strain-specific memory creation. Our results demonstrate that OAS can play an integral role in the emergence of strain structure from host immune dynamics, preventing highly transmissible pathogens from maintaining serial strain replacement without diversification., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.

Antibodies result from the competition of B cell lineages evolving under selection for improved antigen recognition, a process known as affinity maturation. High-affinity antibodies to pathogens such as HIV, influenza, and SARS-CoV-2 are frequently reported to arise from B cells whose receptors, the precursors to antibodies, are encoded by particular immunoglobulin alleles. This raises the possibility that the presence of particular germline alleles in the B cell repertoire is a major determinant of the quality of the antibody response. Alternatively, initial differences in germline alleles' propensities to form high-affinity receptors might be overcome by chance events during affinity maturation. We first investigate these scenarios in simulations: when germline-encoded fitness differences are large relative to the rate and effect size variation of somatic mutations, the same germline alleles persistently dominate the response of different individuals. In contrast, if germline-encoded advantages can be easily overcome by subsequent mutations, allele usage becomes increasingly divergent over time, a pattern we then observe in mice experimentally infected with influenza virus. We investigated whether affinity maturation might nonetheless strongly select for particular amino acid motifs across diverse genetic backgrounds, but we found no evidence of convergence to similar CDR3 sequences or amino acid substitutions. These results suggest that although germline-encoded specificities can lead to similar immune responses between individuals, diverse evolutionary routes to high affinity limit the genetic predictability of responses to infection and vaccination., Competing Interests: C.T.S. has consulted for Alvea / Telis Bioscience Inc. on the design of universal influenza vaccines. The other authors report no competing interests., (Copyright: © 2023 Vieira et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Influenza imprinting reduces risks of influenza A virus clinical infection by 40%-90%, estimated from surveillance data in western countries. We analyzed surveillance data from 2010 to 2019 in Hong Kong. Based on the best model, which included hemagglutinin group-level imprinting, we estimated that individuals imprinted to H1N1 or H2N2 had a 17% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3%-28%) lower risk of H1N1 clinical infection, and individuals imprinted to H3N2 would have 12% (95% CI, -3% to 26%) lower risk of H3N2 clinical infection. These estimated imprinting protections were weaker than estimates in western countries. Identifying factors affecting imprinting protections is important for control policies and disease modeling., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. B. J. C. reports honoraria from AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Moderna, Roche, and Sanofi Pasteur. S. C. reports honoraria from Seqirus. All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is an immune-mediated disease of the bile ducts that co-occurs with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in almost 90% of cases. Colorectal cancer is a major complication of patients with PSC and IBD, and these patients are at a much greater risk compared to patients with IBD without concomitant PSC. Combining flow cytometry, bulk and single-cell transcriptomics, and T and B cell receptor repertoire analysis of right colon tissue from 65 patients with PSC, 108 patients with IBD and 48 healthy individuals we identified a unique adaptive inflammatory transcriptional signature associated with greater risk and shorter time to dysplasia in patients with PSC. This inflammatory signature is characterized by antigen-driven interleukin-17A (IL-17A) + forkhead box P3 (FOXP3) + CD4 T cells that express a pathogenic IL-17 signature, as well as an expansion of IgG-secreting plasma cells. These results suggest that the mechanisms that drive the emergence of dysplasia in PSC and IBD are distinct and provide molecular insights that could guide prevention of colorectal cancer in individuals with PSC., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Public health indicators typically used for COVID-19 surveillance can be biased or lag changing community transmission patterns. In this study, we investigate whether sentinel surveillance of recently symptomatic individuals receiving outpatient diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 could accurately assess the instantaneous reproductive number R(t) and provide early warning of changes in transmission. We use data from community-based diagnostic testing sites in the United States city of Chicago. Patients tested at community-based diagnostic testing sites between September 2020 and June 2021, and reporting symptom onset within four days preceding their test, formed the sentinel population. R(t) calculated from sentinel cases agreed well with R(t) from other indicators. Retrospectively, trends in sentinel cases did not precede trends in COVID-19 hospital admissions by any identifiable lead time. In deployment, sentinel surveillance held an operational recency advantage of nine days over hospital admissions. The promising performance of opportunistic sentinel surveillance suggests that deliberately designed outpatient sentinel surveillance would provide robust early warning of increasing transmission., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

There has been substantial research on adult COVID-19 and how to treat it. But how do severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections afflict children? The COVID-19 pandemic has yielded many surprises, not least that children generally develop less severe disease than older adults, which is unusual for a respiratory disease. However, some children can develop serious complications from COVID-19, such as multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) and Long Covid, even after mild or asymptomatic COVID-19. Why this occurs in some and not others is an important question. Moreover, when children do contract COVID-19, understanding their role in transmission, especially in schools and at home, is crucial to ensuring effective mitigation measures. Therefore, in addition to nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as improved ventilation, there is a strong case to vaccinate children so as to reduce possible long-term effects from infection and to decrease transmission. But questions remain about whether vaccination might skew immune responses to variants in the long term. As the experts discuss below, more is being learned about these important issues, but much more research is needed to understand the long-term effects of COVID-19 in children.

Objectives: The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) assessed whether increases in the SARS-CoV-2 test positivity rate among pregnant people at labor and delivery (L&D) could signal increases in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in the general Illinois population earlier than current state metrics., Materials and Methods: Twenty-six birthing hospitals universally testing for SARS-CoV-2 at L&D voluntarily submitted data from June 21, 2020 through January 23, 2021, to IDPH. Hospitals reported the daily number of people who delivered, SARS-CoV-2 tests, and test results as well as symptom status. We compared the test positivity rate at L&D with the test positivity rate of the general population and the number of hospital admissions for COVID-19-like illness by quantifying correlations in trends and identifying a lead time., Results: Of 26 633 reported pregnant people who delivered, 96.8% (n = 25 772) were tested for SARS-CoV-2. The overall test positivity rate was 2.4% (n = 615); 77.7% (n = 478) were asymptomatic. In Chicago, the only region with a sufficient sample size for analysis, the test positivity rate at L&D (peak of 5% on December 7, 2020) was lower and more stable than the test positivity rate of the general population (peak of 14% on November 13, 2020) and lagged hospital admissions for COVID-19-like illness (peak of 118 on November 15, 2020) and the test positivity rate of the general population by about 10 days (Pearson correlation = 0.73 and 0.75, respectively)., Practice Implications: Trends in the test positivity rate at L&D did not provide an earlier signal of increases in Illinois's SARS-CoV-2 prevalence than current state metrics did. Nonetheless, the role of universal testing protocols in identifying asymptomatic infection is important for clinical decision making and patient education about infection prevention and control.

To understand reinfection rates and correlates of protection for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), we established eight different longitudinal cohorts in 2020 under the umbrella of the PARIS (Protection Associated with Rapid Immunity to SARS-CoV-2)/SPARTA (SARS SeroPrevalence And Respiratory Tract Assessment) studies. Here, we describe the PARIS/SPARTA cohorts, the harmonized assays and analysis that are performed across the cohorts, as well as case definitions for SARS-CoV-2 infection and reinfection that have been established by the team of PARIS/SPARTA investigators. IMPORTANCE Determining reinfection rates and correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection induced by both natural infection and vaccination is of high significance for the prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Furthermore, understanding reinfections or infection after vaccination and the role immune escape plays in these scenarios will inform the need for updates of the current SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and help update guidelines suitable for the postpandemic world.

Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing is critical for monitoring case counts, early detection and containment of infection, clinical management, and surveillance of variants. However, community-based data on the access, uptake, and barriers to testing have been lacking., Methods: We conducted serial cross-sectional online surveys covering demographics, coronavirus disease 2019 symptoms, and experiences around SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic testing to characterize the SARS-CoV-2 testing cascade and associated barriers across 10 US states (California, Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, and Wisconsin), from July 2020 to February 2021., Results: In February 2021, across 10 US states, 895 respondents (11%) reported wanting a diagnostic test in the prior 2 weeks, 63% of whom were tested, with limited variability across states. Almost all (97%) who were tested received their results; 56% received their results within 2 days. In Maryland, Florida, and Illinois, where serial data were available at 4 time points, 56% were tested the same day they wanted or needed a test in February 2021, compared with 28% in July 2020, and 45% received results the same day, compared with 17% in July 2020. Wanting a test was significantly more common among younger, nonwhite respondents and participants with a history of symptoms or exposure. Logistical challenges, including not knowing where to go, were the most frequently cited barriers., Conclusions: There were significant improvements in access and turnaround times across US states, yet barriers to testing remained consistent across states, underscoring the importance of a continued focus on testing, even amidst mass vaccination campaigns., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Given global Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine shortages and inequity of vaccine distributions, fractionation of vaccine doses might be an effective strategy for reducing public health and economic burden, notwithstanding the emergence of new variants of concern. In this study, we developed a multi-scale model incorporating population-level transmission and individual-level vaccination to estimate the costs of hospitalization and vaccination and the economic benefits of reducing COVID-19 deaths due to dose-fractionation strategies in India. We used large-scale survey data of the willingness to pay together with data of vaccine and hospital admission costs to build the model. We found that fractional doses of vaccines could be an economically viable vaccination strategy compared to alternatives of either full-dose vaccination or no vaccination. Dose-sparing strategies could save a large number of lives, even with the emergence of new variants with higher transmissibility., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Many locations around the world have used real-time estimates of the time-varying effective reproductive number ([Formula: see text]) of COVID-19 to provide evidence of transmission intensity to inform control strategies. Estimates of [Formula: see text] are typically based on statistical models applied to case counts and typically suffer lags of more than a week because of the latent period and reporting delays. Noting that viral loads tend to decline over time since illness onset, analysis of the distribution of viral loads among confirmed cases can provide insights into epidemic trajectory. Here, we analyzed viral load data on confirmed cases during two local epidemics in Hong Kong, identifying a strong correlation between temporal changes in the distribution of viral loads (measured by RT-qPCR cycle threshold values) and estimates of [Formula: see text] based on case counts. We demonstrate that cycle threshold values could be used to improve real-time [Formula: see text] estimation, enabling more timely tracking of epidemic dynamics., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

AbstractAlthough vaccines against antigenically evolving pathogens such as seasonal influenza ; and are designed to protect against circulating strains by affecting the emergence and transmission of antigenically divergent strains, they might in theory also be able to change the rate of antigenic evolution. Vaccination might slow antigenic evolution by increasing immunity, reducing the overall prevalence or population size of the pathogen. This reduction could decrease the supply and growth rates of mutants and might thereby slow adaptation. But vaccination might accelerate antigenic evolution by increasing the transmission advantage of more antigenically diverged strains relative to less diverged strains (i.e., by positive selection). Such evolutionary effects could affect vaccination's direct benefits to individuals and indirect benefits to the host population (i.e., the private and social benefits). To investigate these potential impacts, we simulated vaccination against a continuously circulating influenza-like pathogen in a simple population. On average, more vaccination decreased the incidence of infection. Notably, this decrease was driven partly by a vaccine-induced decline in the rate of antigenic evolution. To understand how the evolutionary effects of vaccines might affect their social and private benefits, we fitted linear panel models to simulated data. By slowing evolution, vaccination increased the social benefit and decreased the private benefit. Thus, vaccination's potential social and private benefits may differ from current theory, which omits evolutionary effects. These results suggest that conventional vaccines against influenza and other antigenically evolving pathogens, if protective against transmission and given to the appropriate populations, could further reduce disease burden by slowing antigenic evolution.

In this issue of Cell, Bushman et al. show how more transmissible variants, even if they do not escape immunity, can be strongly selected during the early pandemic. This explains the dynamics of past SARS-CoV-2 variants, but as immunity increases, it is difficult to predict what will emerge next., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests N.D.G. is a paid consultant for Tempus Labs and the National Basketball Association and has received speaking fees from Goldman Sachs., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

How a history of influenza virus infections contributes to protection is not fully understood, but such protection might explain the contrasting age distributions of cases of the two lineages of influenza B, B/Victoria and B/Yamagata. Fitting a statistical model to those distributions using surveillance data from New Zealand, we found they could be explained by historical changes in lineage frequencies combined with cross-protection between strains of the same lineage. We found additional protection against B/Yamagata in people for whom it was their first influenza B infection, similar to the immune imprinting observed in influenza A. While the data were not informative about B/Victoria imprinting, B/Yamagata imprinting could explain the fewer B/Yamagata than B/Victoria cases in cohorts born in the 1990s and the bimodal age distribution of B/Yamagata cases. Longitudinal studies can test if these forms of protection inferred from historical data extend to more recent strains and other populations., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Influenza viruses grown in eggs for the purposes of vaccine generation often acquire mutations during egg adaptation or possess different glycosylation patterns than viruses circulating among humans. Here, we report that seasonal influenza virus vaccines possess an egg-derived glycan that is an antigenic decoy, with egg-binding MAbs reacting with a sulfated N -acetyllactosamine (LacNAc). Half of subjects that received an egg-grown vaccine mounted an antibody response against this egg-derived antigen. Egg-binding monoclonal antibodies specifically bind viruses grown in eggs, but not viruses grown in other chicken-derived cells, suggesting that only egg-grown vaccines can induce antiegg antibodies. Notably, antibodies against the egg antigen utilized a restricted antibody repertoire and possessed features of natural antibodies, as most antibodies were IgM and had a simple heavy-chain complementarity-determining region 3. By analyzing a public data set of influenza virus vaccine-induced plasmablasts, we discovered egg-binding public clonotypes that were shared across studies. Together, this study shows that egg-grown vaccines can induce antibodies against an egg-associated glycan, which may divert the host immune response away from protective epitopes.

Background: Availability of SARS-CoV-2 testing in the United States (U.S.) has fluctuated through the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, including in the U.S. state of Illinois. Despite substantial ramp-up in test volume, access to SARS-CoV-2 testing remains limited, heterogeneous, and insufficient to control spread., Methods: We compared SARS-CoV-2 testing rates across geographic regions, over time, and by demographic characteristics (i.e., age and racial/ethnic groups) in Illinois during March through December 2020. We compared age-matched case fatality ratios and infection fatality ratios through time to estimate the fraction of SARS-CoV-2 infections that have been detected through diagnostic testing., Results: By the end of 2020, initial geographic differences in testing rates had closed substantially. Case fatality ratios were higher in non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic/Latino populations in Illinois relative to non-Hispanic White populations, suggesting that tests were insufficient to accurately capture the true burden of COVID-19 disease in the minority populations during the initial epidemic wave. While testing disparities decreased during 2020, Hispanic/Latino populations consistently remained the least tested at 1.87 tests per 1000 population per day compared with 2.58 and 2.87 for non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White populations, respectively, at the end of 2020. Despite a large expansion in testing since the beginning of the first wave of the epidemic, we estimated that over half (50-80%) of all SARS-CoV-2 infections were not detected by diagnostic testing and continued to evade surveillance., Conclusions: Systematic methods for identifying relatively under-tested geographic regions and demographic groups may enable policymakers to regularly monitor and evaluate the shifting landscape of diagnostic testing, allowing officials to prioritize allocation of testing resources to reduce disparities in COVID-19 burden and eventually reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Background: The Arizona Healthcare, Emergency Response, and Other Essential workers Study (AZ HEROES) aims to examine the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 illness among adults with high occupational exposure risk., Objective: Study objectives include estimating incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in essential workers by symptom presentation and demographic factors, determining independent effects of occupational and community exposures on incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, establishing molecular and immunologic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 infection in essential workers, describing the duration and patterns of rRT-PCR-positivity, and examining post-vaccine immunologic response., Methods: Eligible participants include Arizona residents aged 18-85 years who work at least 20 hours per week in an occupation involving regular direct contact (within three feet) with others. Recruitment goals are stratified by demographic characteristics (50% aged 40 or older, 50% women, and 50% Hispanic or American Indian), by occupation (40% healthcare personnel, 30% first responders, and 30% other essential workers), and by prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (with up to 50% seropositive at baseline). Information on sociodemographics, health and medical history, vaccination status, exposures to individuals with suspected or confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, use of personal protective equipment, and perceived risks are collected at enrollment and updated through quarterly surveys. Every week, participants complete active surveillance for COVID-19-like illness (CLI) and self-collect nasal swabs. Additional self-collected nasal swab and saliva specimens are collected in the event of CLI onset. Respiratory specimens are sent to Marshfield Laboratories and tested for SARS-CoV-2 by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. CLI symptoms and impact on work and productivity are followed through illness resolution. Serum specimens are collected every 3 months and additional sera are collected following incident rRT-PCR positivity and after each COVID-19 vaccine dose. Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections will be calculated by person-weeks at risk and compared by occupation and demographic characteristics and by seropositivity status and infection and vaccination history., Results: The AZ HEROES study was funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Enrollment began July 27, 2020 and as of May 1, 2021 a total of 3,165 participants have been enrolled in the study., Conclusions: AZ HEROES is unique in aiming to recruit a diverse sample of essential workers and prospectively following strata of SARS-CoV-2 seronegative and seropositive adults. Survey results combined with active surveillance data on exposure, CLI, weekly molecular diagnostic testing, and periodic serology will be used to estimate the incidence of symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, assess the intensity and durability of immune responses to natural infection and COVID-19 vaccination, and contribute to the evaluation of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness., International Registered Report: DERR1-10.2196/28925.

When vaccines are in limited supply, expanding the number of people who receive some vaccine, such as by halving doses or increasing the interval between doses, can reduce disease and mortality compared with concentrating available vaccine doses in a subset of the population. A corollary of such dose-sparing strategies is that the vaccinated individuals may have less protective immunity. Concerns have been raised that expanding the fraction of the population with partial immunity to SARS-CoV-2 could increase selection for vaccine-escape variants, ultimately undermining vaccine effectiveness. We argue that, although this is possible, preliminary evidence instead suggests such strategies should slow the rate of viral escape from vaccine or naturally induced immunity. As long as vaccination provides some protection against escape variants, the corresponding reduction in prevalence and incidence should reduce the rate at which new variants are generated and the speed of adaptation. Because there is little evidence of efficient immune selection of SARS-CoV-2 during typical infections, these population-level effects are likely to dominate vaccine-induced evolution.

Limited initial supply of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine raises the question of how to prioritize available doses. We used a mathematical model to compare five age-stratified prioritization strategies. A highly effective transmission-blocking vaccine prioritized to adults ages 20 to 49 years minimized cumulative incidence, but mortality and years of life lost were minimized in most scenarios when the vaccine was prioritized to adults greater than 60 years old. Use of individual-level serological tests to redirect doses to seronegative individuals improved the marginal impact of each dose while potentially reducing existing inequities in COVID-19 impact. Although maximum impact prioritization strategies were broadly consistent across countries, transmission rates, vaccination rollout speeds, and estimates of naturally acquired immunity, this framework can be used to compare impacts of prioritization strategies across contexts., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Estimation of the effective reproductive number Rt is important for detecting changes in disease transmission over time. During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, policy makers and public health officials are using Rt to assess the effectiveness of interventions and to inform policy. However, estimation of Rt from available data presents several challenges, with critical implications for the interpretation of the course of the pandemic. The purpose of this document is to summarize these challenges, illustrate them with examples from synthetic data, and, where possible, make recommendations. For near real-time estimation of Rt, we recommend the approach of Cori and colleagues, which uses data from before time t and empirical estimates of the distribution of time between infections. Methods that require data from after time t, such as Wallinga and Teunis, are conceptually and methodologically less suited for near real-time estimation, but may be appropriate for retrospective analyses of how individuals infected at different time points contributed to the spread. We advise caution when using methods derived from the approach of Bettencourt and Ribeiro, as the resulting Rt estimates may be biased if the underlying structural assumptions are not met. Two key challenges common to all approaches are accurate specification of the generation interval and reconstruction of the time series of new infections from observations occurring long after the moment of transmission. Naive approaches for dealing with observation delays, such as subtracting delays sampled from a distribution, can introduce bias. We provide suggestions for how to mitigate this and other technical challenges and highlight open problems in Rt estimation., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Humans are repeatedly exposed to variants of influenza virus throughout their lifetime. As a result, preexisting influenza-specific memory B cells can dominate the response after infection or vaccination. Memory B cells recalled by adulthood exposure are largely reactive to conserved viral epitopes present in childhood strains, posing unclear consequences on the ability of B cells to adapt to and neutralize newly emerged strains. We sought to investigate the impact of preexisting immunity on generation of protective antibody responses to conserved viral epitopes upon influenza virus infection and vaccination in humans. We accomplished this by characterizing monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) from plasmablasts, which are predominantly derived from preexisting memory B cells. We found that, whereas some influenza infection-induced mAbs bound conserved and neutralizing epitopes on the hemagglutinin (HA) stalk domain or neuraminidase, most of the mAbs elicited by infection targeted non-neutralizing epitopes on nucleoprotein and other unknown antigens. Furthermore, most infection-induced mAbs had equal or stronger affinity to childhood strains, indicating recall of memory B cells from childhood exposures. Vaccination-induced mAbs were similarly induced from past exposures and exhibited substantial breadth of viral binding, although, in contrast to infection-induced mAbs, they targeted neutralizing HA head epitopes. Last, cocktails of infection-induced mAbs displayed reduced protective ability in mice compared to vaccination-induced mAbs. These findings reveal that both preexisting immunity and exposure type shape protective antibody responses to conserved influenza virus epitopes in humans. Natural infection largely recalls cross-reactive memory B cells against non-neutralizing epitopes, whereas vaccination harnesses preexisting immunity to target protective HA epitopes., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Background: The H3N2 component of egg-based 2017-2018 influenza vaccines possessed an adaptive substitution that alters antigenicity. Several influenza vaccines include antigens that are produced through alternative systems, but a systematic comparison of different vaccines used during the 2017-2018 season has not been completed., Methods: We compared antibody responses in humans vaccinated with Fluzone (egg-based, n = 23), Fluzone High-Dose (egg-based, n = 16), Flublok (recombinant protein-based, n = 23), or Flucelvax (cell-based, n = 23) during the 2017-2018 season. We completed neutralization assays using an egg-adapted H3N2 virus, a cell-based H3N2 virus, wild-type 3c2.A and 3c2.A2 H3N2 viruses, and the H1N1 vaccine strain. We also performed enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays using a recombinant wild-type 3c2.A hemagglutinin. Antibody responses were compared in adjusted analysis., Results: Postvaccination neutralizing antibody titers to 3c2.A and 3c2.A2 were higher in Flublok recipients compared with Flucelvax or Fluzone recipients (P < .01). Postvaccination titers to 3c2.A and 3c2.A2 were similar in Flublok and Fluzone High-Dose recipients, though seroconversion rates trended higher in Flublok recipients. Postvaccination titers in Flucelvax recipients were low to all H3N2 viruses tested, including the cell-based H3N2 strain. Postvaccination neutralizing antibody titers to H1N1 were similar among the different vaccine groups., Conclusions: These data suggest that influenza vaccine antigen match and dose are both important for eliciting optimal H3N2 antibody responses in humans. Future studies should be designed to determine if our findings directly impact vaccine effectiveness., Clinical Trials Registration: NCT03068949., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Influenza virus exposures in childhood can establish long-lived memory B cell responses that can be recalled later in life. Here, we complete a large serological survey to elucidate the specificity of antibodies against contemporary H3N2 viruses in differently aged individuals who were likely primed with different H3N2 strains in childhood. We find that most humans who were first infected in childhood with H3N2 viral strains from the 1960s and 1970s possess non-neutralizing antibodies against contemporary 3c2.A H3N2 viruses. We find that 3c2.A H3N2 virus infections boost non-neutralizing H3N2 antibodies in middle-aged individuals, potentially leaving many of them in a perpetual state of 3c2.A H3N2 viral susceptibility.

Estimation of the effective reproductive number, R t , is important for detecting changes in disease transmission over time. During the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers and public health officials are using R t to assess the effectiveness of interventions and to inform policy. However, estimation of R t from available data presents several challenges, with critical implications for the interpretation of the course of the pandemic. The purpose of this document is to summarize these challenges, illustrate them with examples from synthetic data, and, where possible, make recommendations. For near real-time estimation of R t , we recommend the approach of Cori et al. (2013), which uses data from before time t and empirical estimates of the distribution of time between infections. Methods that require data from after time t , such as Wallinga and Teunis (2004), are conceptually and methodologically less suited for near real-time estimation, but may be appropriate for retrospective analyses of how individuals infected at different time points contributed to spread. We advise against using methods derived from Bettencourt and Ribeiro (2008), as the resulting R t estimates may be biased if the underlying structural assumptions are not met. Two key challenges common to all approaches are accurate specification of the generation interval and reconstruction of the time series of new infections from observations occurring long after the moment of transmission. Naive approaches for dealing with observation delays, such as subtracting delays sampled from a distribution, can introduce bias. We provide suggestions for how to mitigate this and other technical challenges and highlight open problems in R t estimation.

Seasonal variation in the age distribution of influenza A cases suggests that factors other than age shape susceptibility to medically attended infection. We ask whether these differences can be partly explained by protection conferred by childhood influenza infection, which has lasting impacts on immune responses to influenza and protection against new influenza A subtypes (phenomena known as original antigenic sin and immune imprinting). Fitting a statistical model to data from studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE), we find that primary infection appears to reduce the risk of medically attended infection with that subtype throughout life. This effect is stronger for H1N1 compared to H3N2. Additionally, we find evidence that VE varies with both age and birth year, suggesting that VE is sensitive to early exposures. Our findings may improve estimates of age-specific risk and VE in similarly vaccinated populations and thus improve forecasting and vaccination strategies to combat seasonal influenza., Competing Interests: PA, EB, SC No competing interests declared, HM has received funding from Seqirus, unrelated to this work. The author has no other competing interests to declare, (© 2020, Arevalo et al.)

Mutations can occur throughout the virus genome and may be beneficial, neutral or deleterious. We are interested in mutations that yield a C next to a G, producing CpG sites. CpG sites are rare in eukaryotic and viral genomes. For the eukaryotes, it is thought that CpG sites are rare because they are prone to mutation when methylated. In viruses, we know less about why CpG sites are rare. A previous study in HIV suggested that CpG-creating transition mutations are more costly than similar non-CpG-creating mutations. To determine if this is the case in other viruses, we analyzed the allele frequencies of CpG-creating and non-CpG-creating mutations across various strains, subtypes, and genes of viruses using existing data obtained from Genbank, HIV Databases, and Virus Pathogen Resource. Our results suggest that CpG sites are indeed costly for most viruses. By understanding the cost of CpG sites, we can obtain further insights into the evolution and adaptation of viruses., (© The Author(s) 2020.)