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1. Performance-Weighted Aggregation: Ferreting Out Wisdom Within the Crowd

Author

Collins, Robert N., Mandel, David R., Budescu, David V., Price, Camille C., Series Editor, Zhu, Joe, Associate Editor, Hillier, Frederick S., Founding Editor, Borgonovo, Emanuele, Editorial Board Member, Nelson, Barry L., Editorial Board Member, Patty, Bruce W., Editorial Board Member, Pinedo, Michael, Editorial Board Member, Vanderbei, Robert J., Editorial Board Member, and Seifert, Matthias, editor

Published
2023
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5. Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change

Author

Grossmann, Igor, Rotella, Amanda, Hutcherson, Cendri A., Sharpinskyi, Konstantyn, Varnum, Michael E. W., Achter, Sebastian, Dhami, Mandeep K., Guo, Xinqi Evie, Kara-Yakoubian, Mane, Mandel, David R., Raes, Louis, Tay, Louis, Vie, Aymeric, Wagner, Lisa, Adamkovic, Matus, Arami, Arash, Arriaga, Patrícia, Bandara, Kasun, Baník, Gabriel, Bartoš, František, Baskin, Ernest, Bergmeir, Christoph, Białek, Michał, Børsting, Caroline K., Browne, Dillon T., Caruso, Eugene M., Chen, Rong, Chie, Bin-Tzong, Chopik, William J., Collins, Robert N., Cong, Chin Wen, Conway, Lucian G., Davis, Matthew, Day, Martin V., Dhaliwal, Nathan A., Durham, Justin D., Dziekan, Martyna, Elbaek, Christian T., Shuman, Eric, Fabrykant, Marharyta, Firat, Mustafa, Fong, Geoffrey T., Frimer, Jeremy A., Gallegos, Jonathan M., Goldberg, Simon B., Gollwitzer, Anton, Goyal, Julia, Graf-Vlachy, Lorenz, Gronlund, Scott D., Hafenbrädl, Sebastian, Hartanto, Andree, Hirshberg, Matthew J., Hornsey, Matthew J., Howe, Piers D. L., Izadi, Anoosha, Jaeger, Bastian, Kačmár, Pavol, Kim, Yeun Joon, Krenzler, Ruslan, Lannin, Daniel G., Lin, Hung-Wen, Lou, Nigel Mantou, Lua, Verity Y. Q., Lukaszewski, Aaron W., Ly, Albert L., Madan, Christopher R., Maier, Maximilian, Majeed, Nadyanna M., March, David S., Marsh, Abigail A., Misiak, Michal, Myrseth, Kristian Ove R., Napan, Jaime M., Nicholas, Jonathan, Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, O, Jiaqing, Otterbring, Tobias, Paruzel-Czachura, Mariola, Pauer, Shiva, Protzko, John, Raffaelli, Quentin, Ropovik, Ivan, Ross, Robert M., Roth, Yefim, Røysamb, Espen, Schnabel, Landon, Schütz, Astrid, Seifert, Matthias, Sevincer, A. T., Sherman, Garrick T., Simonsson, Otto, Sung, Ming-Chien, Tai, Chung-Ching, Talhelm, Thomas, Teachman, Bethany A., Tetlock, Philip E., Thomakos, Dimitrios, Tse, Dwight C. K., Twardus, Oliver J., Tybur, Joshua M., Ungar, Lyle, Vandermeulen, Daan, Vaughan Williams, Leighton, Vosgerichian, Hrag A., Wang, Qi, Wang, Ke, Whiting, Mark E., Wollbrant, Conny E., Yang, Tao, Yogeeswaran, Kumar, Yoon, Sangsuk, Alves, Ventura R., Andrews-Hanna, Jessica R., Bloom, Paul A., Boyles, Anthony, Charis, Loo, Choi, Mingyeong, Darling-Hammond, Sean, Ferguson, Z. E., Kaiser, Cheryl R., Karg, Simon T., Ortega, Alberto López, Mahoney, Lori, Marsh, Melvin S., Martinie, Marcellin F. R. C., Michaels, Eli K., Millroth, Philip, Naqvi, Jeanean B., Ng, Weiting, Rutledge, Robb B., Slattery, Peter, Smiley, Adam H., Strijbis, Oliver, Sznycer, Daniel, Tsukayama, Eli, van Loon, Austin, Voelkel, Jan G., Wienk, Margaux N. A., Wilkening, Tom, Collaborative, The Forecasting, Organizational Psychology, Social Psychology, IBBA, Research Group: Economics, Department of Economics, Department of Social Psychology, Department of Finance, and The Forecasting Collaborative [Member of the MPIB: Anton Gollwitzer]

Subjects
Inequality, cohesion and modernization, Behavioral Neuroscience, Social Psychology, SDG 5 - Gender Equality, IMPLICIT, Experimental and Cognitive Psychology, Ongelijkheid, cohesie en modernisering, ATTITUDES, SDG 10 - Reduced Inequalities
Abstract

Item does not contain fulltext How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender–career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. 18 p.

Published
2023

7. Verbal and numeric probabilities differentially shape decisions.

Author

Collins, Robert N., Mandel, David R., and MacLeod, Brooke A.

Subjects
*PROBABILITY theory, *INFERENCE (Logic)
Abstract

Experts often communicate probabilities verbally (e.g., unlikely) rather than numerically (e.g., 25% chance). Although criticism has focused on the vagueness of verbal probabilities, less attention has been given to the potential unintended, biasing effects of verbal probabilities in communicating probabilities to decision-makers. In four experiments (Ns = 201, 439, 435, 696), we showed that probability format (i.e., verbal vs. numeric) influenced participants' inferences and decisions following a hypothetical financial expert's forecast. We observed a format effect for low probability forecasts: verbal probabilities were interpreted more pessimistically than numeric equivalents. We attributed the difference to directionality, a linguistic property that biases attention toward an outcome. In the high-probability conditions, the directionality of verbal and numeric probabilities aligned (both were positive), whereas they differed in the low-probability conditions (verbal probabilities were more negative). Participants inferred recommendations congruent with the communicated direction and these inferences mediated the effect of probability format on decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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11. Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

Author

Grossmann, Igor, primary, Rotella, Amanda, additional, Hutcherson, Cendri, additional, Sharpinskyi, Constantine, additional, Varnum, Michael E. W., additional, Achter, Sebastian, additional, Dhami, Mandeep K, additional, Guo, Xinqi, additional, Kara-Yakoubian, Mane, additional, Mandel, David R., additional, Raes, Louis, additional, Tay, Louis, additional, Vie, Aymeric, additional, Wagner, Lisa, additional, Adamkovic, Matus, additional, Arami, Arash, additional, Arriaga, Patricia, additional, Baník, Gabriel, additional, Bartoš, František, additional, Baskin, Ernest, additional, Bergmeir, Christoph, additional, Bialek, Michal, additional, Børsting, Caroline Kjær, additional, Browne, Dillon, additional, Caruso, Eugene Matthew, additional, Chen, Rong, additional, Chie, Bin-Tzong, additional, Chopik, William J., additional, Collins, Robert N., additional, Cong, Chin Wen, additional, Conway, Lucian Gideon, additional, Davis, Matthew E, additional, Day, Martin V., additional, Dhaliwal, Nathan, additional, Durham, Justin, additional, Dziekan, Martyna, additional, Elbaek, Christian T., additional, Shuman, Eric, additional, Fabrykant, Marharyta, additional, FIRAT, Mustafa Altuğ, additional, Fong, Geoffrey T., additional, Frimer, Jeremy Abraham, additional, Gallegos, Jonathan, additional, Goldberg, Simon, additional, Gollwitzer, Anton, additional, Goyal, Julia, additional, Graf-Vlachy, Lorenz, additional, Gronlund, Scott D., additional, Hafenbrädl, Sebastian, additional, Hartanto, Andree, additional, Hirshberg, Matthew James, additional, Hornsey, Matthew, additional, Howe, Piers, additional, Izadi, Anoosha, additional, Jaeger, Bastian, additional, Kačmár, Pavol, additional, Kim, Dean Y.J., additional, Krenzler, Ruslan, additional, Lannin, Daniel G, additional, Lin, Hung-Wen, additional, Lou, Nigel Mantou, additional, Lua, Verity Y. Q., additional, Lukaszewski, Aaron, additional, Ly, Albert Le, additional, Madan, Christopher R, additional, Maier, Maximilian, additional, Majeed, Nadyanna M., additional, March, David Scott, additional, Marsh, Abigail, additional, Misiak, Michał, additional, Myrseth, Kristian Ove R., additional, Napan, Jaime, additional, Nicholas, Jonathan, additional, Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, additional, O, Jiaqing, additional, Otterbring, Tobias, additional, Paruzel-Czachura, Mariola, additional, Pauer, Shiva, additional, Protzko, John, additional, Raffaelli, Quentin, additional, Ropovik, Ivan, additional, Ross, Robert M, additional, Roth, Yefim, additional, Røysamb, Espen, additional, Schnabel, Landon, additional, Schütz, Astrid, additional, Seifert, Matthias, additional, Sevincer, A. Timur, additional, Sherman, Garrick, additional, Simonsson, Otto, additional, Sung, Ming-Chien, additional, Tai, Chung-Ching, additional, Talhelm, Thomas, additional, Teachman, Bethany, additional, Tetlock, Phil, additional, Thomakos, Dimitrios, additional, Tse, Dwight, additional, Twardus, Oliver, additional, Tybur, Joshua M., additional, Ungar, Lyle H, additional, Vandermeulen, Daan, additional, Williams, Leighton Vaughan, additional, Vosgerichian, Hrag A., additional, Wang, Qi, additional, Wang, Ke, additional, Whiting, Mark E, additional, Wollbrant, Conny Ernst-Peter, additional, Yang, Tao, additional, Yogeeswaran, Kumar, additional, Yoon, Sangsuk, additional, Alves, Ventura R, additional, Andrews-Hanna, Jessica R., additional, Bloom, Paul Alexander, additional, Boyles, Anthony, additional, Loo, Charis, additional, Choi, Mingyeong, additional, Darling-Hammond, Sean, additional, Ferguson, Z E, additional, kaiser, cheryl, additional, Karg, Simon Tobias, additional, Ortega, Alberto López, additional, Mahoney, Lori, additional, Marsh, Melvin, additional, Martinie, Marcellin F. R. C., additional, Michaels, Eli, additional, Millroth, Philip, additional, Naqvi, Jeanean, additional, Ng, Weiting, additional, Rutledge, Robb, additional, Slattery, Peter, additional, Smiley, Adam Herschel, additional, Strijbis, Oliver, additional, Sznycer, Daniel, additional, Tsukayama, Eli, additional, van Loon, Austin, additional, Voelkel, Jan G., additional, Wienk, Margaux Nicole Agnes, additional, and Wilkening, Tom, additional

Published
2022
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19. SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS.

Author

Mandel, David R., Risko, Evan F., Fugelsang, Jonathan A., and Collins, Robert N.

Subjects
TEDDY bears, CAPITAL cities
Published
2020

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