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1. Assessment of polygenic architecture and risk prediction based on common variants across fourteen cancers

Author

Yan Dora Zhang, Amber N. Hurson, Haoyu Zhang, Parichoy Pal Choudhury, Douglas F. Easton, Roger L. Milne, Jacques Simard, Per Hall, Kyriaki Michailidou, Joe Dennis, Marjanka K. Schmidt, Jenny Chang-Claude, Puya Gharahkhani, David Whiteman, Peter T. Campbell, Michael Hoffmeister, Mark Jenkins, Ulrike Peters, Li Hsu, Stephen B. Gruber, Graham Casey, Stephanie L. Schmit, Tracy A. O’Mara, Amanda B. Spurdle, Deborah J. Thompson, Ian Tomlinson, Immaculata De Vivo, Maria Teresa Landi, Matthew H. Law, Mark M. Iles, Florence Demenais, Rajiv Kumar, Stuart MacGregor, D. Timothy Bishop, Sarah V. Ward, Melissa L. Bondy, Richard Houlston, John K. Wiencke, Beatrice Melin, Jill Barnholtz-Sloan, Ben Kinnersley, Margaret R. Wrensch, Christopher I. Amos, Rayjean J. Hung, Paul Brennan, James McKay, Neil E. Caporaso, Sonja I. Berndt, Brenda M. Birmann, Nicola J. Camp, Peter Kraft, Nathaniel Rothman, Susan L. Slager, Andrew Berchuck, Paul D. P. Pharoah, Thomas A. Sellers, Simon A. Gayther, Celeste L. Pearce, Ellen L. Goode, Joellen M. Schildkraut, Kirsten B. Moysich, Laufey T. Amundadottir, Eric J. Jacobs, Alison P. Klein, Gloria M. Petersen, Harvey A. Risch, Rachel Z. Stolzenberg-Solomon, Brian M. Wolpin, Donghui Li, Rosalind A. Eeles, Christopher A. Haiman, Zsofia Kote-Jarai, Fredrick R. Schumacher, Ali Amin Al Olama, Mark P. Purdue, Ghislaine Scelo, Marlene D. Dalgaard, Mark H. Greene, Tom Grotmol, Peter A. Kanetsky, Katherine A. McGlynn, Katherine L. Nathanson, Clare Turnbull, Fredrik Wiklund, Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC), Barrett’s and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium (BEACON), Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR), Transdisciplinary Studies of Genetic Variation in Colorectal Cancer (CORECT), Endometrial Cancer Association Consortium (ECAC), Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO), Melanoma Genetics Consortium (GenoMEL), Glioma International Case-Control Study (GICC), International Lung Cancer Consortium (ILCCO), Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) Consortium, International Consortium of Investigators Working on Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma Epidemiologic Studies (InterLymph), Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC), Oral Cancer GWAS, Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium (PanC4), Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan), Prostate Cancer Association Group to Investigate Cancer Associated Alterations in the Genome (PRACTICAL), Renal Cancer GWAS, Testicular Cancer Consortium (TECAC), Stephen J. Chanock, Nilanjan Chatterjee, and Montserrat Garcia-Closas

Subjects
Science
Abstract

In cancer many gene variants may contribute to disease etiology, but the impact of a given gene variant may have varied effect size. Here, the authors analyse summary statistics of genome-wide association studies from fourteen cancers, and show the utility of polygenic risk scores may vary depending on cancer type.

Published
2020
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2. Assessment of polygenic architecture and risk prediction based on common variants across fourteen cancers.

Author

Zhang, Yan Dora, Hurson, Amber N, Zhang, Haoyu, Choudhury, Parichoy Pal, Easton, Douglas F, Milne, Roger L, Simard, Jacques, Hall, Per, Michailidou, Kyriaki, Dennis, Joe, Schmidt, Marjanka K, Chang-Claude, Jenny, Gharahkhani, Puya, Whiteman, David, Campbell, Peter T, Hoffmeister, Michael, Jenkins, Mark, Peters, Ulrike, Hsu, Li, Gruber, Stephen B, Casey, Graham, Schmit, Stephanie L, O'Mara, Tracy A, Spurdle, Amanda B, Thompson, Deborah J, Tomlinson, Ian, De Vivo, Immaculata, Landi, Maria Teresa, Law, Matthew H, Iles, Mark M, Demenais, Florence, Kumar, Rajiv, MacGregor, Stuart, Bishop, D Timothy, Ward, Sarah V, Bondy, Melissa L, Houlston, Richard, Wiencke, John K, Melin, Beatrice, Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill, Kinnersley, Ben, Wrensch, Margaret R, Amos, Christopher I, Hung, Rayjean J, Brennan, Paul, McKay, James, Caporaso, Neil E, Berndt, Sonja I, Birmann, Brenda M, Camp, Nicola J, Kraft, Peter, Rothman, Nathaniel, Slager, Susan L, Berchuck, Andrew, Pharoah, Paul DP, Sellers, Thomas A, Gayther, Simon A, Pearce, Celeste L, Goode, Ellen L, Schildkraut, Joellen M, Moysich, Kirsten B, Amundadottir, Laufey T, Jacobs, Eric J, Klein, Alison P, Petersen, Gloria M, Risch, Harvey A, Stolzenberg-Solomon, Rachel Z, Wolpin, Brian M, Li, Donghui, Eeles, Rosalind A, Haiman, Christopher A, Kote-Jarai, Zsofia, Schumacher, Fredrick R, Al Olama, Ali Amin, Purdue, Mark P, Scelo, Ghislaine, Dalgaard, Marlene D, Greene, Mark H, Grotmol, Tom, Kanetsky, Peter A, McGlynn, Katherine A, Nathanson, Katherine L, Turnbull, Clare, Wiklund, Fredrik, Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC), Barrett’s and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium (BEACON), Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR), Transdisciplinary Studies of Genetic Variation in Colorectal Cancer (CORECT), Endometrial Cancer Association Consortium (ECAC), Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO), Melanoma Genetics Consortium (GenoMEL), Glioma International Case-Control Study (GICC), International Lung Cancer Consortium (ILCCO), Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) Consortium, International Consortium of Investigators Working on Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma Epidemiologic Studies (InterLymph), Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC), Oral Cancer GWAS, Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium (PanC4), Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan), and Prostate Cancer Association Group to Investigate Cancer Associated Alterations in the Genome (PRACTICAL)

Subjects
Breast Cancer Association Consortium, Barrett’s and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium, Colon Cancer Family Registry, Transdisciplinary Studies of Genetic Variation in Colorectal Cancer, Endometrial Cancer Association Consortium, Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium, Melanoma Genetics Consortium, Glioma International Case-Control Study, International Lung Cancer Consortium, Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) Consortium, International Consortium of Investigators Working on Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma Epidemiologic Studies, Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium, Oral Cancer GWAS, Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium, Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium, Prostate Cancer Association Group to Investigate Cancer Associated Alterations in the Genome, Renal Cancer GWAS, Testicular Cancer Consortium, Animals, Humans, Neoplasms, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Incidence, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Multifactorial Inheritance, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Models, Genetic, Female, Male, Genome-Wide Association Study, Human Genome, Prevention, Cancer, Prostate Cancer, Genetics, Urologic Diseases, 2.1 Biological and endogenous factors
Abstract

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have led to the identification of hundreds of susceptibility loci across cancers, but the impact of further studies remains uncertain. Here we analyse summary-level data from GWAS of European ancestry across fourteen cancer sites to estimate the number of common susceptibility variants (polygenicity) and underlying effect-size distribution. All cancers show a high degree of polygenicity, involving at a minimum of thousands of loci. We project that sample sizes required to explain 80% of GWAS heritability vary from 60,000 cases for testicular to over 1,000,000 cases for lung cancer. The maximum relative risk achievable for subjects at the 99th risk percentile of underlying polygenic risk scores (PRS), compared to average risk, ranges from 12 for testicular to 2.5 for ovarian cancer. We show that PRS have potential for risk stratification for cancers of breast, colon and prostate, but less so for others because of modest heritability and lower incidence.

Published
2020

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