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The stock market which is a critical instrument in the modern financial system consistently attracts a significant number of individuals and financial institutions. The amalgamation of machine learning with stock forecasting has seen increased interest due to the rising prominence of machine learning. Among numerous machine learning models, the long short-term memory (LSTM) is favored by many researchers for its superior performance in long time series. This paper presents an innovative approach that integrates LSTM with versatile sliding window techniques to enhance prediction results and training performance. Moreover, the attached experiments incorporate convolutional filters and combined bivariate performance measures, which are invaluable methodologies for enhancing stock forecasting systems. These significant contributions are expected to be beneficial for researchers operating within this domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We developed a new method to price double barrier options under pure non-Gaussian Lévy processes admitting jumps of unbounded variation. In our approach, we represent the underlying process as a sequence of spectrally positive, negative, and again positive jumps, with spectrally positive jumps corresponding to half of the time moment. This rule is applied to the increments of the Lévy process at exponentially distributed time points. The justification for the convergence of the method in time is carried out using the interpretation of time randomization as the numerical Laplace transform inversion with the Post-Widder formula. The main algorithm consists of the recurrent calculation of the sufficient simple expectations of the intermediate price function depending on the position of the extremum of spectrally positive or negative part of the underying Lévy process at a randomized time moment. It corresponds to a sequence of problems for integro-differential equations on an interval, each of which is solved semi-explicitly by the Wiener–Hopf method. We decompose the characteristic function of a randomized spectrally positive (negative) process as the product of two Wiener–Hopf factors, the first of which corresponds to the exponential distribution and the second is calculated as a ratio. The parameter of the exponential distribution is numerically found as the only root of the factorizing operator symbol using Newton's method. Thus, by combining the sequential application of the Wiener–Hopf operators in explicit form with the characteristic function of our interval, we obtain the solution to each auxiliary problem. The main advantage of the suggested methods is that being very simple for programming it makes it possible to avoid dealing with Wiener–Hopf matrix factorization or solving systems of coupled nontrivial Wiener–Hopf equations that require application of tricky approximate factorization formulas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wrong-Way Risk (WWR) is an important component in Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA) modeling. Yet, the standard assumption is independence between market risks and the counterparty defaults and funding costs. This typical industrial setting is our point of departure, where we aim to assess the impact of WWR without running a full Monte Carlo simulation with all credit and funding processes. We propose to split the exposure profile into two parts: an independent and a WWR-driven part. For the former, exposures can be re-used from the standard xVA calculation. We express the second part of the exposure profile in terms of the stochastic drivers and approximate these by a common Gaussian stochastic factor. Within the affine setting, the proposed approximation is generic, is an add-on to the existing xVA calculations and provides an efficient and robust way to include WWR in FVA modeling. Case studies for an interest rate swap and a representative multi-currency portfolio of swaps illustrate that the approximation method is applicable in a practical setting. We analyze the approximation error and use the approximation to compute WWR sensitivities, which are needed for risk management. The approach is equally applicable to other metrics such as Credit Valuation Adjustment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inclusive computational practices are increasingly being employed to enrich knowledge and facilitate sensemaking in STEM education. Embedding computational activities in Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning environments can enhance students' experiences. This study aimed to investigate the knowledge co-construction process within tailored student-led computational lab activities designed for a Computational Finance module. In particular, this study focused on the analysis of the effects of different lab practices and of group composition on knowledge co-construction. The groups designed for the lab activities were internally homogenous in terms of student ability. The sample consisted of 396 answers to a weekly survey filled out by all 50 of the undergraduate students who attended the module during the AY 2020/2021. The qualitative analysis relied on an adapted version of the Interaction Analysis Model designed by Gunawardena and colleagues for collaborative knowledge construction. Quantitative analyses were then conducted to study how the different lab practices and the composition of the groups affected the interaction. The findings revealed that, although the lower phases were the most prevalent, significant negotiations of meaning and discussions were activated, especially in tasks guiding towards sensemaking. Furthermore, the groups composed of lower-achieving students were the most engaged in negotiating and improving understanding as a result of the group interaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies presents novel technical solutions to traditional accounting and finance problems. Despite this, scholars in accounting and finance frequently encounter difficulties navigating the extensive and intricate domain knowledge of AI and its continuously evolving literature. To address this gap, this paper conducts a qualitative survey of the implementation of AI methods in accounting and finance. The paper is structured into four sections. Firstly, we examine the conventional accounting and finance issues and their requirement for AI techniques. Secondly, to inform accounting and finance researchers about the potential of AI, we present broad categories of AI applications. Thirdly, we explore recent research on AI solutions to conventional problems. Finally, we highlight emerging trends and possible research directions.

Stochastic optimal principle leads to the resolution of a partial differential equation (PDE), namely the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation. In general, this equation cannot be solved analytically, thus numerical algorithms are the only tools to provide accurate approximations. The aims of this paper is to introduce a novel fitted finite volume method to solve high dimensional degenerated HJB equation from stochastic optimal control problems in high dimension ( n ≥ 3 ). The challenge here is due to the nature of our HJB equation which is a degenerated second-order partial differential equation coupled with an optimization problem. For such problems, standard scheme such as finite difference method losses its monotonicity and therefore the convergence toward the viscosity solution may not be guarantee. We discretize the HJB equation using the fitted finite volume method, well known to tackle degenerated PDEs, while the time discretisation is performed using the Implicit Euler scheme.. We show that matrices resulting from spatial discretization and temporal discretization are M-matrices. Numerical results in finance demonstrating the accuracy of the proposed numerical method comparing to the standard finite difference method are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A novel hybrid option pricing model using a deep learning neural network has been developed. The hybrid model keeps the traditional option pricing model with the same input parameters while simultaneously adjusting the model with neural network methods to improve accuracy when applied to real market data, especially in OTM options. The new hybrid model demonstrates superior accuracy compared to both traditional parametric and non-parametric option pricing models for both Call and Put options across all moneyness levels. The empirical results of the hybrid model provide an explanation for the deviation from the Put-Call parity observed in real market data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial markets are a source of non-stationary multidimensional time series which has been drawing attention for decades. Each financial instrument has its specific changing-over-time properties, making its analysis a complex task. Hence, improvement of understanding and development of more informative, generalisable market representations are essential for the successful operation in financial markets, including risk assessment, diversification, trading, and order execution.In this study, we propose a volume-price-based market representation for making financial time series more suitable for machine learning pipelines. We use a statistical approach for evaluating the representation. Through the research questions, we investigate, i) whether the proposed representation allows any improvement over the baseline (always-positive) performance; ii) whether the proposed representation leads to increased performance over the price levels market pattern; iii) whether the proposed representation performs better on the liquid markets, and iv) whether SHAP feature interactions are reliable to be used in the considered setting.Our analysis shows that the proposed volume-based method allows successful classification of the financial time series patterns, and also leads to better classification performance than the price levels-based method, excelling specifically on more liquid financial instruments. Finally, we propose an approach for obtaining feature interactions directly from tree-based models and compare the outcomes to those of the SHAP method. This results in the significant similarity between the two methods, hence we claim that SHAP feature interactions are reliable to be used in the setting of financial markets.

With the emergence of various online trading technologies, fraudulent cases begin to occur frequently. The problem of fraud in public trading companies is a hot topic in financial field. This paper proposes a fraud detection model for public trading companies using datasets collected from SEC's Accounting and Auditing Enforcement Releases (AAERs). At the same time, this computational finance model is solved with a nonlinear activated Beetle Antennae Search (NABAS) algorithm, which is a variant of the meta-heuristic optimization algorithm named Beetle Antennae Search (BAS) algorithm. Firstly, the fraud detection model is transformed into an optimization problem of minimizing loss function and using the NABAS algorithm to find the optimal solution. NABAS has only one search particle and explores the space under a given gradient estimation until it is less than an "Activated Threshold" and the algorithm is efficient in computation. Then, the random under-sampling with AdaBoost (RUSBoost) algorithm is employed to comprehensively evaluate the performance of NABAS. In addition, to reflect the superiority of NABAS in the fraud detection problem, it is compared with some popular methods in recent years, such as the logistic regression model and Support Vector Machine with Financial Kernel (SVM-FK) algorithm. Finally, the experimental results show that the NABAS algorithm has higher accuracy and efficiency than other methods in the fraud detection of public datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reinforcement learning (RL) for dynamic asset allocation is an emerging field of study. Total return, the common performance metric, is useful for comparing algorithms but does not help us determine how close an RL algorithm is to an optimal solution. In real-world financial applications, a bad decision could prove to be fatal. One of the key ideas of our work is to combine the two paradigms of the mean-variance optimization approach (Markowitz criteria) and the optimal capital growth approach (Kelly criteria) via the actor-critic approach. By using an actor-critic approach, we can balance optimization of risk and growth by configuring the actor to optimize the mean-variance while the critic is configured to maximize growth. We propose a Geometric Policy Score used by the critic to assess the quality of the actions taken by the actor. This could allow portfolio manager practitioners to better understand the investment RL policy. We present an extensive and in-depth study of RL algorithms for use in portfolio management (PM). We studied eight published policy-based RL algorithms which are preferred over value-based RL because they are better suited for continuous action spaces and are considered to be state of the art, Deterministic Policy Gradient (DPG), Stochastic Policy Gradients (SPG), Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG), Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO), Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3), Soft Actor Critic (SAC), and Evolution Strategies (ES) for Policy Optimization. We implemented all eight and we were able to modify all of them for PM but our initial testing determined that their performance was not satisfactory. Most algorithms showed difficulty converging during the training process due to the non-stationary and noisy nature of financial environments, along with other challenges. We selected the four most promising algorithms DPG, SPG, DDPG, PPO for further improvements. The modification of RL algorithms to finance required unconventional changes. We have developed a novel approach for encoding multi-type financial data in a way that is compatible with RL. We use a multi-channel convolutional neural network (CNN-RL) framework, where each channel corresponds to a specific type of data such as high-low-open-close prices and volumes. We also designed a reward function based on concepts such as alpha, beta, and diversification that are financially meaningful while still being learnable by RL. In addition, portfolio managers will typically use a blend of time series analysis and cross-sectional analysis before making a decision. We extend our approach to incorporate, for the first time, cross-sectional deep RL in addition to time series RL. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the RL agents and benchmark them against commonly used passive and active trading strategies, such as the uniform buy-and-hold (UBAH) index and the dynamical multi-period Mean-Variance-Optimization (MVO) model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to financial investment is a research area that has attracted extensive research attention since the 1990s, when there was an accelerated technological development and popularization of the personal computer. Since then, countless approaches have been proposed to deal with the problem of price prediction in the stock market. This paper presents a systematic review of the literature on Artificial Intelligence applied to investments in the stock market based on a sample of 2326 papers from the Scopus website between 1995 and 2019. These papers were divided into four categories: portfolio optimization, stock market prediction using AI, financial sentiment analysis, and combinations involving two or more approaches. For each category, the initial introductory research to its state-of-the-art applications are described. In addition, an overview of the review leads to the conclusion that this research area is gaining continuous attention and the literature is becoming increasingly specific and thorough.

This article deals with the determination and comparison of different types of functions of the type-2 interval of fuzzy logic, using a case study on the international financial market. The model is demonstrated on the time series of the leading stock index DJIA of the US market. Type-2 Fuzzy Logic membership features are able to include additional uncertainty resulting from unclear, uncertain or inaccurate financial data that are selected as inputs to the model. Data on the financial situation of companies are prone to inaccuracies or incomplete information, which is why the type-2 fuzzy logic application is most suitable for this type of financial analysis. This paper is primarily focused on comparing and evaluating the performance of different types of type-2 fuzzy membership functions with integrated additional uncertainty. For this purpose, several model situations differing in shape and level or degree of uncertainty of membership functions are constructed. The results of this research show that type-2 fuzzy sets with dual membership functions is a suitable expert system for highly chaotic and unstable international stock markets and achieves higher accuracy with the integration of a certain level of uncertainty compared to type-1 fuzzy logic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper formulates a capital investment problem under ambiguity as a robust control problem. We consider the problem as a particular form of the maxmin expected utility model, such that the firm's optimal decision becomes the solution of a convex-concave function. As the presence of the convex cost function with ambiguity prevents us from deriving an analytical solution, we propose a numerical procedure to derive the optimal solution via approximate dynamic programming. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to examine the impact of the acceptable degree of model misspecification, robust parameter, and volatility on firm's optimal decision-making. This paper has shown that the optimal distortion is within the acceptable degree because there is a penalty for model misspecification under an appropriate degree of acceptance. As the robust parameter increases, the magnitude of distortion decreases, creating a trade-off between the degree of acceptable misspecification and the misspecification penalty. As a result, the optimal distortion level between the reference model and the approximate model is determined. It has also shown that price risk reduces the size of the optimal distortion and the optimal investment rate. We especially note that an increase in price risk under ambiguity has the opposite impact on the optimal investment rate compared to the case under risk. The result indicates that output price ambiguity makes firms more cautious about capital investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study describes a framework based on stochastic trees and Monte Carlo methods able to compute price and greeks of a European-American Knock-Out deal (EAKO). EAKOs are contracts traded over-the-counter (OTC) and measuring their fairvalues require advanced mathematical techniques. In the first part of the paper the pay-off of the structured product is explained, in the second part the mathematical models are described and in the last part the techniques are implemented and validated in Matlab environment.

Extracting implied information, like volatility and dividend, from observed option prices is a challenging task when dealing with American options, because of the complex-shaped early-exercise regions and the computational costs to solve the corresponding mathematical problem repeatedly. We will employ a data-driven machine learning approach to estimate the Black-Scholes implied volatility and the dividend yield for American options in a fast and robust way. To determine the implied volatility, the inverse function is approximated by an artificial neural network on the effective computational domain of interest, which decouples the offline (training) and online (prediction) stages and thus eliminates the need for an iterative process. In the case of an unknown dividend yield, we formulate the inverse problem as a calibration problem and determine simultaneously the implied volatility and dividend yield. For this, a generic and robust calibration framework, the Calibration Neural Network (CaNN), is introduced to estimate multiple parameters. It is shown that machine learning can be used as an efficient numerical technique to extract implied information from American options, particularly when considering multiple early-exercise regions due to negative interest rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the estimation of parameters for g-and-h distributions. These distributions find applications in modeling highly skewed and fat-tailed data, like extreme losses in the banking and insurance sector. We first introduce two estimation methods: a numerical maximum likelihood technique, and an indirect inference approach with a bootstrap weighting scheme. In a realistic simulation study, we show that indirect inference is computationally more efficient and provides better estimates than the maximum likelihood method in the case of extreme features in the data. Empirical illustrations on insurance and operational losses illustrate these findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers computational challenges to practically important problems related to pricing exotic interest rate derivatives, using the Kusuoka–Lyons–Ninomiya–Victoir scheme (KLNV-scheme) which is a higher-order discretization framework for performing weak approximations of stochastic differential equations. The author demonstrates the KLNV-scheme is even more effective for some types of practical high-dimensional problems, especially when close or approximate solutions to the involved ordinary differential equations can be found. Moreover, the numerical results show the proposed methods are 500 to more than 6000 times faster compared to the conventional methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract A data-driven approach called CaNN (Calibration Neural Network) is proposed to calibrate financial asset price models using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Determining optimal values of the model parameters is formulated as training hidden neurons within a machine learning framework, based on available financial option prices. The framework consists of two parts: a forward pass in which we train the weights of the ANN off-line, valuing options under many different asset model parameter settings; and a backward pass, in which we evaluate the trained ANN-solver on-line, aiming to find the weights of the neurons in the input layer. The rapid on-line learning of implied volatility by ANNs, in combination with the use of an adapted parallel global optimization method, tackles the computation bottleneck and provides a fast and reliable technique for calibrating model parameters while avoiding, as much as possible, getting stuck in local minima. Numerical experiments confirm that this machine-learning framework can be employed to calibrate parameters of high-dimensional stochastic volatility models efficiently and accurately.

We propose three different data-driven approaches for pricing European-style call options using supervised machine-learning algorithms. These approaches yield models that give a range of fair prices instead of a single price point. The performance of the models is tested on two stock market indices: NIFTY50 and BANKNIFTY from the Indian equity market. Although neither historical nor implied volatility is used as an input, the results show that the trained models have been able to capture the option pricing mechanism better than or similar to the Black–Scholes formula for all the experiments. Our choice of scale free I/O allows us to train models using combined data of multiple different assets from a financial market. This not only allows the models to achieve far better generalization and predictive capability, but also solves the problem of paucity of data, the primary limitation of using machine learning techniques. We also illustrate the performance of the trained models in the period leading up to the 2020 Stock Market Crash (January 2019 to April 2020). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the emergence of various online trading technologies, fraudulent cases begin to occur frequently. The problem of fraud in public trading companies is a hot topic in financial field. This paper proposes a fraud detection model for public trading companies using datasets collected from SEC’s Accounting and Auditing Enforcement Releases (AAERs). At the same time, this computational finance model is solved with a nonlinear activated Beetle Antennae Search (NABAS) algorithm, which is a variant of the meta-heuristic optimization algorithm named Beetle Antennae Search (BAS) algorithm. Firstly, the fraud detection model is transformed into an optimization problem of minimizing loss function and using the NABAS algorithm to find the optimal solution. NABAS has only one search particle and explores the space under a given gradient estimation until it is less than an “Activated Threshold” and the algorithm is efficient in computation. Then, the random under-sampling with AdaBoost (RUSBoost) algorithm is employed to comprehensively evaluate the performance of NABAS. In addition, to reflect the superiority of NABAS in the fraud detection problem, it is compared with some popular methods in recent years, such as the logistic regression model and Support Vector Machine with Financial Kernel (SVM-FK) algorithm. Finally, the experimental results show that the NABAS algorithm has higher accuracy and efficiency than other methods in the fraud detection of public datasets.

Using features extracted from StockTwits messages between July 2009 and September 2012, we show through simulations that: (1) message volume and sentiment can be used as a risk factor in an asset pricing model framework; (2) message volume and sentiment help explain the diffusion of price information over several days, and (3) message volume and sentiment can be used as features to predict asset price directional moves. Our findings suggest statistics derived from message volume and sentiment can improve asset price forecasts and leads to a profitable trading strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This article deals with the determination and comparison of different types of functions of the type-2 interval of fuzzy logic, using a case study on the international financial market. The model is demonstrated on the time series of the leading stock index DJIA of the US market. Type-2 Fuzzy Logic membership features are able to include additional uncertainty resulting from unclear, uncertain or inaccurate financial data that are selected as inputs to the model. Data on the financial situation of companies are prone to inaccuracies or incomplete information, which is why the type-2 fuzzy logic application is most suitable for this type of financial analysis. This paper is primarily focused on comparing and evaluating the performance of different types of type-2 fuzzy membership functions with integrated additional uncertainty. For this purpose, several model situations differing in shape and level or degree of uncertainty of membership functions are constructed. The results of this research show that type-2 fuzzy sets with dual membership functions is a suitable expert system for highly chaotic and unstable international stock markets and achieves higher accuracy with the integration of a certain level of uncertainty compared to type-1 fuzzy logic.

Event studies in finance have focused on traditional news headlines to assess the impact an event has on a traded company. The increased proliferation of news and information produced by social media content has disrupted this trend. Although researchers have begun to identify trading opportunities from social media platforms, such as Twitter, almost all techniques use a general sentiment from large collections of tweets. Though useful, general sentiment does not provide an opportunity to indicate specific events worthy of affecting stock prices. This work presents an event clustering algorithm, utilizing natural language processing techniques to generate newsworthy events from Twitter, which have the potential to influence stock prices in the same manner as traditional news headlines. The event clustering method addresses the effects of pre-news and lagged news, two peculiarities that appear when connecting trading and news, regardless of the medium. Pre-news signifies a finding where stock prices move in advance of a news release. Lagged news refers to follow-up or late-arriving news, adding redundancy in making trading decisions. For events generated by the proposed clustering algorithm, we incorporate event studies and machine learning to produce an actionable system that can guide trading decisions. The recommended prediction algorithms provide investing strategies with profitable risk-adjusted returns. The suggested language models present annualized Sharpe ratios (risk-adjusted returns) in the 5–11 range, while time-series models produce in the 2–3 range (without transaction costs). The distribution of returns confirms the encouraging Sharpe ratios by identifying most outliers as positive gains. Additionally, machine learning metrics of precision, recall, and accuracy are discussed alongside financial metrics in hopes of bridging the gap between academia and industry in the field of computational finance.

Real estate assets can be used to store capital, generate income through rentals and can act as collateral for debt instruments. Common risk management mechanisms for real estate investments use portfolio diversification techniques, but these techniques require large amounts of capital to work effectively. Real estate index derivatives offer an alternative mechanism for managing risks associated with real estate investments. They also increase market liquidity by providing a path for individuals who do not own real estate assets to participate in the real estate market. We consider the problem of pricing real estate index derivative contracts. The market is incomplete, so it is completed by futures derivatives on the same real estate index. A dynamic hedging strategy is employed leading to a parabolic partial differential equation with coefficients which are dependent on time and the real estate index. We then construct a nonstandard finite difference method to price European and American real estate index options. The scheme utilizes complete cubic spline interpolants of the option prices at time-dependent backtrack points on the spatial grid. Bounds for the global error are theoretically established. Numerical experiments are carried out to illustrate the accuracy of the scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, the use of Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models is tested in an active trading algorithm for corn and soybean future markets. By assuming that a given investor lives in a two-regime world (with low- and high-volatility time periods), a trading algorithm was simulated (from January 2000 to March 2019), which helped the investor to forecast the probability of being in the high-volatility regime at t + 1. Once this probability was known, the investor could decide to invest either in commodities, during low-volatility periods or in the 3-month US Treasury bills, during high-volatility periods. Our results suggest that the Gaussian MS-GARCH model is the most appropriate to generate alpha or extra returns (from a passive investment strategy) in the corn market and the t-Student MS-GARCH is the best one for soybean trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Event studies in finance have focused on traditional news headlines to assess the impact an event has on a traded company. The increased proliferation of news and information produced by social media content has disrupted this trend. Although researchers have begun to identify trading opportunities from social media platforms, such as Twitter, almost all techniques use a general sentiment from large collections of tweets. Though useful, general sentiment does not provide an opportunity to indicate specific events worthy of affecting stock prices. This work presents an event clustering algorithm, utilizing natural language processing techniques to generate newsworthy events from Twitter, which have the potential to influence stock prices in the same manner as traditional news headlines. The event clustering method addresses the effects of pre-news and lagged news, two peculiarities that appear when connecting trading and news, regardless of the medium. Pre-news signifies a finding where stock prices move in advance of a news release. Lagged news refers to follow-up or late-arriving news, adding redundancy in making trading decisions. For events generated by the proposed clustering algorithm, we incorporate event studies and machine learning to produce an actionable system that can guide trading decisions. The recommended prediction algorithms provide investing strategies with profitable risk-adjusted returns. The suggested language models present annualized Sharpe ratios (risk-adjusted returns) in the 5–11 range, while time-series models produce in the 2–3 range (without transaction costs). The distribution of returns confirms the encouraging Sharpe ratios by identifying most outliers as positive gains. Additionally, machine learning metrics of precision, recall, and accuracy are discussed alongside financial metrics in hopes of bridging the gap between academia and industry in the field of computational finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]