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Islands are renowned as evolutionary laboratories and support many species that are not found elsewhere 1,2 . Islands are also of great conservation concern, with many of their endemic species currently threatened or extinct 3 . Here we present a standardized checklist of all known vascular plants that occur on islands and document their geographical and phylogenetic distribution and conservation risk. Our analyses of 304,103 plant species reveal that 94,052 species (31%) are native to islands, which constitute 5.3% of the global landmass 4 . Of these, 63,280 are island endemic species, which represent 21% of global plant diversity. Three-quarters of these are restricted to large or isolated islands. Compared with the world flora, island endemics are non-randomly distributed within the tree of life, with a total of 1,005 billion years of unique phylogenetic history with 17 families and 1,702 genera being entirely endemic to islands. Of all vascular plants assigned International Union for Conservation of Nature conservation categories 5 , 22% are island endemics. Among these endemic species, 51% are threatened, and 55% of all documented global extinctions have occurred on islands. We find that of all single-island endemic species, only 6% occur on islands meeting the United Nations 30×30 conservation target. Urgent measures including habitat restoration, invasive species removal and ex situ programmes are needed to protect the world's island flora. Our checklist quantifies the uniqueness of island life, provides a basis for future studies of island floras, and highlights the urgent need to take actions for conserving them., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Density-dependent population dynamic models strongly influence many of the world's most important harvest policies. Nearly all classic models (e.g. Beverton-Holt and Ricker) recommend that managers maintain a population size of roughly 40-50 percent of carrying capacity to maximize sustainable harvest, no matter the species' population growth rate. Such insights are the foundational logic behind most sustainability targets and biomass reference points for fisheries. However, a simple, less-commonly used model, called the Hockey-Stick model, yields very different recommendations. We show that the optimal population size to maintain in this model, as a proportion of carrying capacity, is one over the population growth rate. This leads to more conservative optimal harvest policies for slow-growing species, compared to other models, if all models use the same growth rate and carrying capacity values. However, parameters typically are not fixed; they are estimated after model-fitting. If the Hockey-Stick model leads to lower estimates of carrying capacity than other models, then the Hockey-Stick policy could yield lower absolute population size targets in practice. Therefore, to better understand the population size targets that may be recommended across real fisheries, we fit the Hockey-Stick, Ricker and Beverton-Holt models to population time series data across 284 fished species from the RAM Stock Assessment database. We found that the Hockey-Stick model usually recommended fisheries maintain population sizes higher than all other models (in 69-81% of the data sets). Furthermore, in 77% of the datasets, the Hockey-Stick model recommended an optimal population target even higher than 60% of carrying capacity (a widely used target, thought to be conservative). However, there was considerable uncertainty in the model fitting. While Beverton-Holt fit several of the data sets best, Hockey-Stick also frequently fit similarly well. In general, the best-fitting model rarely had overwhelming support (a model probability of greater than 95% was achieved in less than five percent of the datasets). A computational experiment, where time series data were simulated from all three models, revealed that Beverton-Holt often fit best even when it was not the true model, suggesting that fisheries data are likely too small and too noisy to resolve uncertainties in the functional forms of density-dependent growth. Therefore, sustainability targets may warrant revisiting, especially for slow-growing species., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Groundwater is the most ubiquitous source of liquid freshwater globally, yet its role in supporting diverse ecosystems is rarely acknowledged 1,2 . However, the location and extent of groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) are unknown in many geographies, and protection measures are lacking 1,3 . Here, we map GDEs at high-resolution (roughly 30 m) and find them present on more than one-third of global drylands analysed, including important global biodiversity hotspots 4 . GDEs are more extensive and contiguous in landscapes dominated by pastoralism with lower rates of groundwater depletion, suggesting that many GDEs are likely to have already been lost due to water and land use practices. Nevertheless, 53% of GDEs exist within regions showing declining groundwater trends, which highlights the urgent need to protect GDEs from the threat of groundwater depletion. However, we found that only 21% of GDEs exist on protected lands or in jurisdictions with sustainable groundwater management policies, invoking a call to action to protect these vital ecosystems. Furthermore, we examine the linkage of GDEs with cultural and socio-economic factors in the Greater Sahel region, where GDEs play an essential role in supporting biodiversity and rural livelihoods, to explore other means for protection of GDEs in politically unstable regions. Our GDE map provides critical information for prioritizing and developing policies and protection mechanisms across various local, regional or international scales to safeguard these important ecosystems and the societies dependent on them., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Tropical forest degradation from selective logging, fire and edge effects is a major driver of carbon and biodiversity loss 1-3 , with annual rates comparable to those of deforestation 4 . However, its actual extent and long-term impacts remain uncertain at global tropical scale 5 . Here we quantify the magnitude and persistence of multiple types of degradation on forest structure by combining satellite remote sensing data on pantropical moist forest cover changes 4 with estimates of canopy height and biomass from spaceborne 6 light detection and ranging (LiDAR). We estimate that forest height decreases owing to selective logging and fire by 15% and 50%, respectively, with low rates of recovery even after 20 years. Agriculture and road expansion trigger a 20% to 30% reduction in canopy height and biomass at the forest edge, with persistent effects being measurable up to 1.5 km inside the forest. Edge effects encroach on 18% (approximately 206 Mha) of the remaining tropical moist forests, an area more than 200% larger than previously estimated 7 . Finally, degraded forests with more than 50% canopy loss are significantly more vulnerable to subsequent deforestation. Collectively, our findings call for greater efforts to prevent degradation and protect already degraded forests to meet the conservation pledges made at recent United Nations Climate Change and Biodiversity conferences., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Logged and disturbed forests are often viewed as degraded and depauperate environments compared with primary forest. However, they are dynamic ecosystems 1 that provide refugia for large amounts of biodiversity 2,3 , so we cannot afford to underestimate their conservation value 4 . Here we present empirically defined thresholds for categorizing the conservation value of logged forests, using one of the most comprehensive assessments of taxon responses to habitat degradation in any tropical forest environment. We analysed the impact of logging intensity on the individual occurrence patterns of 1,681 taxa belonging to 86 taxonomic orders and 126 functional groups in Sabah, Malaysia. Our results demonstrate the existence of two conservation-relevant thresholds. First, lightly logged forests (<29% biomass removal) retain high conservation value and a largely intact functional composition, and are therefore likely to recover their pre-logging values if allowed to undergo natural regeneration. Second, the most extreme impacts occur in heavily degraded forests with more than two-thirds (>68%) of their biomass removed, and these are likely to require more expensive measures to recover their biodiversity value. Overall, our data confirm that primary forests are irreplaceable 5 , but they also reinforce the message that logged forests retain considerable conservation value that should not be overlooked., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

We introduce a model that can be used for the description of the distribution of species when there is scarcity of data, based on our previous work (Ballesteros et al. J Math Biol 85(4):31, 2022). We address challenges in modeling species that are seldom observed in nature, for example species included in The International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Threatened Species (IUCN 2023). We introduce a general method and test it using a case study of a near threatened species of amphibians called Plectrohyla Guatemalensis (see IUCN 2023) in a region of the UNESCO natural reserve "Tacaná Volcano", in the border between Mexico and Guatemala. Since threatened species are difficult to find in nature, collected data can be extremely reduced. This produces a mathematical problem in the sense that the usual modeling in terms of Markov random fields representing individuals associated to locations in a grid generates artificial clusters around the observations, which are unreasonable. We propose a different approach in which our random variables describe yearly averages of expectation values of the number of individuals instead of individuals (and they take values on a compact interval). Our approach takes advantage of intuitive insights from environmental properties: in nature individuals are attracted or repulsed by specific features (Ballesteros et al. J Math Biol 85(4):31, 2022). Drawing inspiration from quantum mechanics, we incorporate quantum Hamiltonians into classical statistical mechanics (i.e. Gibbs measures or Markov random fields). The equilibrium between spreading and attractive/repulsive forces governs the behavior of the species, expressed through a global control problem involving an energy operator., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Threatened species are by definition species that are in need of assistance. In the absence of suitable conservation interventions, they are likely to disappear soon 1 . There is limited understanding of how and where conservation interventions are applied globally, or how well they work 2,3 . Here, using information from the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List and other global databases, we find that for species at risk from three of the biggest drivers of biodiversity loss-habitat loss, overexploitation for international trade and invasive species 4 -many appear to lack the appropriate types of conservation interventions. Indeed, although there has been substantial recent expansion of the protected area network, we still find that 91% of threatened species have insufficient representation of their habitats within protected areas. Conservation interventions are not implemented uniformly across different taxa and regions and, even when present, have infrequently led to substantial improvements in the status of species. For 58% of the world's threatened terrestrial species, we find conservation interventions to be notably insufficient or absent. We cannot determine whether such species are truly neglected, or whether efforts to recover them are not included in major conservation databases. If they are indeed neglected, the outlook for many of the world's threatened species is grim without more and better targeted action., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Phylogenetic diversity indices provide a formal way to apportion evolutionary history amongst living species. Understanding the properties of these measures is key to determining their applicability in conservation biology settings. In this work, we investigate some questions posed in a recent paper by Fischer et al. (Syst Biol 72(3):606-615, 2023). In that paper, it is shown that under certain extinction scenarios, the ranking of the surviving species by their Fair Proportion index scores may be the complete reverse of their ranking beforehand. Our main results here show that this behaviour extends to a large class of phylogenetic diversity indices, including the Equal-Splits index. We also provide a necessary condition for reversals of Fair Proportion rankings to occur on phylogenetic trees whose edge lengths obey the ultrametric constraint. Specific examples of rooted phylogenetic trees displaying these behaviours are given and the impact of our results on the use of phylogenetic diversity indices more generally is discussed., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Roads are expanding at the fastest pace in human history. This is the case especially in biodiversity-rich tropical nations, where roads can result in forest loss and fragmentation, wildfires, illicit land invasions and negative societal effects 1-5 . Many roads are being constructed illegally or informally and do not appear on any existing road map 6-10 ; the toll of such 'ghost roads' on ecosystems is poorly understood. Here we use around 7,000 h of effort by trained volunteers to map ghost roads across the tropical Asia-Pacific region, sampling 1.42 million plots, each 1 km 2 in area. Our intensive sampling revealed a total of 1.37 million km of roads in our plots-from 3.0 to 6.6 times more roads than were found in leading datasets of roads globally. Across our study area, road building almost always preceded local forest loss, and road density was by far the strongest correlate 11 of deforestation out of 38 potential biophysical and socioeconomic covariates. The relationship between road density and forest loss was nonlinear, with deforestation peaking soon after roads penetrate a landscape and then declining as roads multiply and remaining accessible forests largely disappear. Notably, after controlling for lower road density inside protected areas, we found that protected areas had only modest additional effects on preventing forest loss, implying that their most vital conservation function is limiting roads and road-related environmental disruption. Collectively, our findings suggest that burgeoning, poorly studied ghost roads are among the gravest of all direct threats to tropical forests., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system 1 . Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests 2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced 6 and satellite-derived approaches 2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea 2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Understanding the effects of cash crop expansion on natural forest is of fundamental importance. However, for most crops there are no remotely sensed global maps 1 , and global deforestation impacts are estimated using models and extrapolations. Natural rubber is an example of a principal commodity for which deforestation impacts have been highly uncertain, with estimates differing more than fivefold 1-4 . Here we harnessed Earth observation satellite data and cloud computing 5 to produce high-resolution maps of rubber (10 m pixel size) and associated deforestation (30 m pixel size) for Southeast Asia. Our maps indicate that rubber-related forest loss has been substantially underestimated in policy, by the public and in recent reports 6-8 . Our direct remotely sensed observations show that deforestation for rubber is at least twofold to threefold higher than suggested by figures now widely used for setting policy 4 . With more than 4 million hectares of forest loss for rubber since 1993 (at least 2 million hectares since 2000) and more than 1 million hectares of rubber plantations established in Key Biodiversity Areas, the effects of rubber on biodiversity and ecosystem services in Southeast Asia could be extensive. Thus, rubber deserves more attention in domestic policy, within trade agreements and in incoming due-diligence legislation., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Protected areas (PAs) are the primary strategy for slowing terrestrial biodiversity loss. Although expansion of PA coverage is prioritized under the Convention on Biological Diversity, it remains unknown whether PAs mitigate declines across the tetrapod tree of life and to what extent land cover and climate change modify PA effectiveness 1,2 . Here we analysed rates of change in abundance of 2,239 terrestrial vertebrate populations across the globe. On average, vertebrate populations declined five times more slowly within PAs (-0.4% per year) than at similar sites lacking protection (-1.8% per year). The mitigating effects of PAs varied both within and across vertebrate classes, with amphibians and birds experiencing the greatest benefits. The benefits of PAs were lower for amphibians in areas with converted land cover and lower for reptiles in areas with rapid climate warming. By contrast, the mitigating impacts of PAs were consistently augmented by effective national governance. This study provides evidence for the effectiveness of PAs as a strategy for slowing tetrapod declines. However, optimizing the growing PA network requires targeted protection of sensitive clades and mitigation of threats beyond PA boundaries. Provided the conditions of targeted protection, adequate governance and well-managed landscapes are met, PAs can serve a critical role in safeguarding tetrapod biodiversity., (© 2023. This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply.)

The Amazon forest carbon sink is declining, mainly as a result of land-use and climate change 1-4 . Here we investigate how changes in law enforcement of environmental protection policies may have affected the Amazonian carbon balance between 2010 and 2018 compared with 2019 and 2020, based on atmospheric CO 2 vertical profiles 5,6 , deforestation 7 and fire data 8 , as well as infraction notices related to illegal deforestation 9 . We estimate that Amazonia carbon emissions increased from a mean of 0.24 ± 0.08 PgC year -1 in 2010-2018 to 0.44 ± 0.10 PgC year -1 in 2019 and 0.52 ± 0.10 PgC year -1 in 2020 (± uncertainty). The observed increases in deforestation were 82% and 77% (94% accuracy) and burned area were 14% and 42% in 2019 and 2020 compared with the 2010-2018 mean, respectively. We find that the numbers of notifications of infractions against flora decreased by 30% and 54% and fines paid by 74% and 89% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Carbon losses during 2019-2020 were comparable with those of the record warm El Niño (2015-2016) without an extreme drought event. Statistical tests show that the observed differences between the 2010-2018 mean and 2019-2020 are unlikely to have arisen by chance. The changes in the carbon budget of Amazonia during 2019-2020 were mainly because of western Amazonia becoming a carbon source. Our results indicate that a decline in law enforcement led to increases in deforestation, biomass burning and forest degradation, which increased carbon emissions and enhanced drying and warming of the Amazon forests., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

The globally important carbon sink of intact, old-growth tropical humid forests is declining because of climate change, deforestation and degradation from fire and logging 1-3 . Recovering tropical secondary and degraded forests now cover about 10% of the tropical forest area 4 , but how much carbon they accumulate remains uncertain. Here we quantify the aboveground carbon (AGC) sink of recovering forests across three main continuous tropical humid regions: the Amazon, Borneo and Central Africa 5,6 . On the basis of satellite data products 4,7 , our analysis encompasses the heterogeneous spatial and temporal patterns of growth in degraded and secondary forests, influenced by key environmental and anthropogenic drivers. In the first 20 years of recovery, regrowth rates in Borneo were up to 45% and 58% higher than in Central Africa and the Amazon, respectively. This is due to variables such as temperature, water deficit and disturbance regimes. We find that regrowing degraded and secondary forests accumulated 107 Tg C year -1 (90-130 Tg C year -1 ) between 1984 and 2018, counterbalancing 26% (21-34%) of carbon emissions from humid tropical forest loss during the same period. Protecting old-growth forests is therefore a priority. Furthermore, we estimate that conserving recovering degraded and secondary forests can have a feasible future carbon sink potential of 53 Tg C year -1 (44-62 Tg C year -1 ) across the main tropical regions studied., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Invasive species are one of the greatest threats to ecosystems, disrupting ecosystem function and leading to the collapse and extinction of native species. While populations of native fishes in the Everglades are tied to the system's natural hydrological dynamics, Asian Swamp Eels (Monopterus albus/javanensis) are drought-resistant fish first reported from Florida in 1997 and the Everglades in 2007. Using a 26-year dataset that included a 13-year baseline period prior to swamp eel arrival in Taylor Slough, we assessed population changes of common small fishes and decapods that are important prey for larger vertebrate predators. After invasion, populations of two crayfishes collapsed by >95 %, two fishes declined by >80 %, two fishes had intermediate declines of 44-66 %, and three species remained unchanged. Species most strongly reduced were those dependent on predator-free habitats at the onset of the wet season, indicating drought-resistant swamp eels have introduced novel predator effects and disrupted the hydrology-mediated production of aquatic animals that are prey for many larger predators. Ongoing Everglades restoration is designed to restore hydrological conditions that support production of crayfishes and fishes, and nesting wading birds reliant on them. Water management may have facilitated the invasion of swamp eels. Our results suggest that the continued spread of swamp eels may result in adverse consequences for Everglades trophic dynamics and potentially diminish benefits expected from the $20B+ restoration., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The concept of green development has gradually penetrated into the enterprise. Green mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have gradually become a means for heavily polluting enterprises to achieve the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction and embark on the path of green transformation. Heavily polluting enterprises have acquired clean technology and resources through green M&A, and whether they will promote their green innovations after green M&A has not yet been explored. Based on the data of M&As of China's heavy polluting enterprises from 2010 to 2018, this study empirically tests whether the M&As of heavy polluting enterprises can promote green innovation. The results show that M&As by heavily polluting enterprises can promote green innovation, and this impact is promoted with the support of government subsidies. In addition, older or higher paid CEOs negatively moderate this effect. Therefore, our study believes that most of the M&As of heavy polluting enterprises are taking the initiative to take environmental protection responsibilities and embarking on the path of green transformation. The government can issue relevant policies to encourage heavily polluting enterprises to conduct green M&A in order to achieve their goal of green transformation. Our study has enriched the relevant literature on green investment and green innovation, and can be used as a reference for the government to introduce policies for the green transformation of heavily polluting enterprises., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Evaluation of tourism competitiveness is useful for measuring the level of regional tourism development. It is of great importance to understand the advantages and disadvantages of tourism development correctly and formulate corresponding development strategies. To investigate tourism competitiveness, this paper established an evaluation index system, including tourism development competitiveness, tourism resource competitiveness, and tourism-support competitiveness, for 14 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang in China. The characteristics and laws of spatial differentiation were analyzed. Factor analysis was applied to examine the spatial differentiation of regional tourism competitiveness. The results showed an obvious spatial differentiation in tourism competitiveness among the 14 prefectures and cities. In terms of development competitiveness, Yili and Urumqi constituted the spatial center, followed by Changji, Altay, and Ba Prefecture. As the provincial capital, Urumqi has political, economic, cultural, transportation, and geographic advantages, but its competitiveness is not prominent in terms of monopoly and efficiency. In terms of resource competitiveness, Yili is the core attraction, while Urumqi, Kashgar, Altay, and Ba Prefecture are dominant attractions. With respect to supporting competitiveness, Bo Prefecture has high value, followed by Urumqi City and Aksu. Hetian and Ke Prefecture have the lowest values. The comprehensive competitiveness of tourism is centered on Yili. Urumqi and Bo Prefecture are subcenters, and Changji, Altay, Ba Prefecture, Aksu, and Kashgar are characterized as multi-polar competition areas. Using the KMO and Bartlett's sphericity tests, the cumulative contribution variance of the eigenvalues of the eight factors extracted by the maximum variance rotation method was found to be 92.714%. Socio-economic conditions, tourism resources, infrastructure construction, regional cultural influence, ecological environment carrying capacity, tertiary industry development, tourism service level, and living security system are the main driving factors affecting the spatial differentiation of tourism competitiveness in Xinjiang. Analyzing the spatial evolution characteristics and the driving factors of the regional tourism competitiveness in Xinjiang, this paper seeks to promote the optimal allocation of tourism production factors in the macro regional system, and provide theoretical guidance and an empirical basis for the comprehensive and harmonic development of regional tourism., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Solving environmental problems relies upon cultivating pro-environmental behavior in the society. While the internet has been widely used to facilitate information transmission and communication, it's important to understand its function in promoting pro-environmental behavior. Using the data from the China General Social Survey 2013, the relationship between the use of internet and the individual's pro-environmental behavior is investigated, and overall positive effects are found. The results show that, the influence of internet use is more pronounced on the private pro-environmental behavior when further dividing pro-environmental behavior into private and public types. Moreover, the positive effect of internet use on pro-environmental behavior is more pronounced among low-income and female groups, compared to middle to high income and male counterparts, respectively, when considering the heterogeneity across different groups of individuals. We further explore the plausible channels of providing information, encouraging participation in pro-environmental campaigns and improving social relationships through which internet use facilitates pro-environmental behavior., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Land modified for human use alters matrix shape and composition and is a leading contributor to global biodiversity loss. It can also play a key role in facilitating range expansion and ecosystem invasion by anthrophilic species, as it can alter food abundance and distribution while also influencing predation risk; the relative roles of these processes are key to habitat selection theory. We researched these relative influences by examining human footprint, natural habitat, and predator occurrence on seasonal habitat selection by range-expanding boreal white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the oil sands of western Canada. We hypothesized that polygonal industrial features (e.g. cutblocks, well sites) drive deer distributions as sources of early seral forage, while linear features (e.g. roads, trails, and seismic lines) and habitat associated with predators are avoided by deer. We developed seasonal 2nd -order resource selection models from three years of deer GPS-telemetry data, a camera-trap-based model of predator occurrence, and landscape spatial data to weigh evidence for six competing hypotheses. Deer habitat selection was best explained by the combination of polygonal and linear features, intact deciduous forest, and wolf (Canis lupus) occurrence. Deer strongly selected for linear features such as roads and trails, despite a potential increased risk of wolf encounters. Linear features may attract deer by providing high density forage opportunity in heavily exploited landscapes, facilitating expansion into the boreal north., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Several studies have reported the relationship of deforestation with increased incidence of infectious diseases, mainly due to the deregulation caused in these environments. The purpose of this study was to answer the following questions: a) is increased loss of vegetation related to dengue cases in the Brazilian Cerrado? b) how do different regions of the tropical savanna biome present distinct patterns for total dengue cases and vegetation loss? c) what is the projection of a future scenario of deforestation and an increased number of dengue cases in 2030? Thus, this study aimed to assess the relationship between loss of native vegetation in the Cerrado and dengue infection. In this paper, we quantify the entire deforested area and dengue infection cases from 2001 to 2019. For data analyses, we used Poisson generalized linear model, descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, non-parametric statistics, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict loss of vegetation and fever dengue cases for the next decade. Cluster analysis revealed the formation of four clusters among the states. Our results showed significant increases in loss of native vegetation in all states, with the exception of Piauí. As for dengue cases, there were increases in the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Mato Grosso. Based on projections for 2030, Minas Gerais will register about 4,000 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants, São Paulo 750 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants, and Mato Grosso 500 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants. To reduce these projections, Brazil will need to control deforestation and implement public health, environmental and social policies, requiring a joint effort from all spheres of society., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Identifying knowledge gaps and taxonomic and geographic bias in the literature is invaluable for guiding research towards a more representative understanding of animal groups. Galagids are nocturnal African primates and, for many species, detailed information on their behaviour and ecology is unavailable. To identify gaps and bias in the literature we reviewed published peer-reviewed research articles on galagid behaviour and ecology over a 50-year period from January 1971 to December 2020. Using the Web of Science and Google Scholar databases, we identified 758 articles, assessed 339 full texts for eligibility and included 211 in the review. Species of Otolemur have been extensively researched in comparison to other genera (78.2% of studies; Euoticus: 13.3% of studies; Galago: 66.4% of studies; Galagoides: 20.9% of studies; Paragalago: 22.3% of studies; Sciurocheirus: 15.2% of studies). The most common category of research was physiology (55.0% of studies), followed by behavioural ecology (47.4% of studies), and fewer studies were on genetics and taxonomy (16.1% of studies) and habitat and distribution (14.2% of studies). Text mining revealed that the word 'behaviour' was the most common word used in abstracts and keywords, and few words were related to ecology. Negative binomial regression revealed that mean body mass and geographic range size were significant positive predictors of the total number of scientific outputs on each species. Research on wild populations was carried out in only 24 (60%) of the 40 countries galagids are thought to inhabit. Studies were undertaken in locations with lower mean annual temperatures and higher human population densities over warmer and less populated areas. We encourage a more equal sampling effort both taxonomically and geographically that in particular addresses the paucity of research on smaller species and those with restricted ranges. Research on in situ populations, especially in warmer and remote areas, is urgently needed, particularly in West, Central and some Southern African countries., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Spatial prioritization is a critical step in conservation planning, a process designed to ensure that limited resources are applied in ways that deliver the highest possible returns for biodiversity and human wellbeing. In practice, many spatial prioritizations fall short of their potential by focusing on places rather than actions, and by using data of snapshots of assets or threats rather than estimated impacts. We introduce spatial action mapping as an approach that overcomes these shortfalls. This approach produces a spatially explicit view of where and how much a given conservation action is likely to contribute to achieving stated conservation goals. Through seven case examples, we demonstrate simple to complex versions of how this method can be applied across local to global scales to inform decisions about a wide range of conservation actions and benefits. Spatial action mapping can support major improvements in efficient use of conservation resources and will reach its full potential as the quality of environmental, social, and economic datasets converge and conservation impact evaluations improve., (© 2021 The Authors. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of New York Academy of Sciences.)

In agricultural landscapes, the amount and organization of crops and semi-natural habitats (SNH) have the potential to promote a bundle of ecosystem services due to their influence on ecological community at multiple spatio-temporal scales. SNH are relatively undisturbed and are often source of complementary resources and refuges, therefore supporting more diverse and abundant natural pest enemies. However, the nexus of SNH proportion and organization with pest suppression is not trivial. It is thus crucial to understand how the behavior of pest and natural enemy species, the underlying landscape structure, and their interaction, may influence conservation biological control (CBC). Here, we develop a generative stochastic landscape model to simulate realistic agricultural landscape compositions and configurations of fields and linear elements. Generated landscapes are used as spatial support over which we simulate a spatially explicit predator-prey dynamic model. We find that increased SNH presence boosts predator populations by sustaining high predator density that regulates and keeps pest density below the pesticide application threshold. However, predator presence over all the landscape helps to stabilize the pest population by keeping it under this threshold, which tends to increase pest density at the landscape scale. In addition, the joint effect of SNH presence and predator dispersal ability among hedge and field interface results in a stronger pest regulation, which also limits pest growth. Considering properties of both fields and linear elements, such as local structure and geometric features, provides deeper insights for pest regulation; for example, hedge presence at crop field boundaries clearly strengthens CBC. Our results highlight that the integration of species behaviors and traits with landscape structure at multiple scales is necessary to provide useful insights for CBC., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Humans play major roles in shaping and transforming the ecology of Earth. Unlike natural drivers of ecosystem change, which are erratic and unpredictable, human intervention in ecosystems generally involves planning and management, but often results in detrimental outcomes. Using model studies and aerial-image analysis, we argue that the design of a successful human intervention form calls for the identification of the self-organization modes that drive ecosystem change, and for studying their dynamics. We demonstrate this approach with two examples: grazing management in drought-prone ecosystems, and rehabilitation of degraded vegetation by water harvesting. We show that grazing can increase the resilience to droughts, rather than imposing an additional stress, if managed in a spatially non-uniform manner, and that fragmental restoration along contour bunds is more resilient than the common practice of continuous restoration in vegetation stripes. We conclude by discussing the need for additional studies of self-organization modes and their dynamics., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Wildlife rehabilitation is a publicly popular practice, though not without controversy. State wildlife agencies frequently debate the ecological impact of rehabilitation. By analyzing case records, we can clarify and quantify the causes for rehabilitation, species involved, and treatment outcomes. This data would aid regulatory agencies and rehabilitators in making informed decisions, as well as gaining insight into causes of species mortality. In New York State, the Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) has licensed rehabilitators since 1980 and annual reporting is required. In this study, we analyzed 58,185 individual wildlife cases that were attended by New York rehabilitators between 2012 and 2014. These encompassed 30,182 (51.9%) birds, 25,447 (43.7%) mammals, 2,421 (4.2%) reptiles, and 75 (0.1%) amphibians. We identified patterns among taxonomic representation, reasons for presentation to a rehabilitation center, and animal disposition. Major causes of presentation were trauma (n = 22,156; 38.1%) and orphaning (n = 21,679; 37.3%), with habitat loss (n = 3,937; 6.8%), infectious disease (n = 1,824; 3.1%), and poisoning or toxin exposure (n = 806; 1.4%) playing lesser roles. The overall release rate for animals receiving care was 50.2% while 45.3% died or were euthanized during the rehabilitation process. A relatively small number (0.3%) were permanently non-releasable and placed in captivity; 4.1% had unknown outcomes. A comparable evaluation in 1989 revealed that wildlife submissions have increased (annual mean 12,583 vs 19,395), and are accompanied by a significant improvement in release (50.2% in the study period vs 44.4% in 1989) (χ2(1) = 90.43, p < 0.0001). In this manuscript, we aim to describe the rehabilitator community in New York State, and present the causes and outcomes for rehabilitation over a three-year period., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Rehabilitation centres help injured animals to recover and return back to the wild. This study aimed to analyse trends in intake and outcomes for the common kestrels (Falco tinnunculus) admitted into rehabilitation centres in the Czech Republic. From 2010 to 2019, a total of 12,923 kestrels were admitted to 34 rehabilitation centres with an increasing trend (rSp = 0.7697, P < 0.01) being found during the monitored period. Subadult kestrels (34.70%) and kestrels injured by power lines (26.57%) were most often admitted. Most kestrels in the rehabilitation centres died or had to be euthanized (81.66%), only 15.90% of the birds could be released back into the wild. The median length of stay in rehabilitation centres for kestrels that were subsequently released was 35 days. Considering survival rates, the most critical threat to kestrels was poisoning (100% of the cases resulted in death) but mortality of the kestrels admitted for most other reasons also exceeded 80%. Given the low success rate of the care of kestrels in rehabilitation centres and the relatively small proportion returned to the wild, it is essential to eliminate the causes leading to their admission, that is, to protect their natural habitats and to prevent unnecessary capture., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

In mobilizing funds that selectively support non-profits, foundations shape the political field. This study maps the funding relationships between foundations, ENGOs and think tanks in Canada and considers the implications for environmental politics. We examine foundation funding for different strains of environmental politics and policy-planning and consider how ENGOs and think tanks are clustered as communities within a foundation-centred support network. Of particular interest are 'clean growth' ENGOs that have emerged as key proponents of business-friendly approaches to the climate crisis. We find that the ENGOs receiving large grants tend to be conservationist while the think tanks tend to be conservative. Communities in the network are divided between several clusters of corporate and family foundations supporting conservative think tanks, clean growth ENGOs and conservationist ENGOs, and a segment of the network in which one municipal and several family foundations, support more social-ecological organizations, thereby facilitating more transformative visions and policies. Although few in number, clean growth organizations tend to receive giant donations, in some cases from corporate foundations aligned with the fossil-fuel sector. Recent adoption of clean growth as governmental policy and its embrace within philanthropic missions could reshape the environmental field towards 'clean growth', as ENGOs seek funding and legitimacy., (© 2021 Canadian Sociological Association/La Société canadienne de sociologie.)

Rapid deforestation is a major driver of greenhouse-gas emissions (1). One proposed policy tool to halt deforestation is community forest management. Even though communities manage an increasing proportion of the world's forests, we lack good evidence of successful approaches to community forest management. Prior studies suggest that successful approaches require a number of "design conditions" to be met. However, causal evidence on the effectiveness of individual design conditions is scarce. This study isolates one design condition, community-led monitoring of the forest, and provides causal evidence on its potential to reduce forest use. The study employs a randomized controlled trial to investigate the impact of community monitoring on forest use in 110 villages in Uganda. We explore the impact of community monitoring in both monitored and unmonitored areas of the forest, using exceptionally detailed data from on-the-ground measurements and satellite imagery. Estimates indicate that community monitoring does not affect our main outcome of interest, a forest-use index. However, treatment villages see a relative increase in forest loss outside of monitored forest areas compared to control villages. This increase is seen both in nonmonitored areas adjacent to treatment villages and in nonmonitored areas adjacent to neighboring villages not included in the study. We tentatively conclude that at least part of the increase in forest loss in nonmonitored areas is due to displacement of forest use by members of treatment villages due to fear of sanctions. Interventions to reduce deforestation should take this potentially substantial effect into consideration., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Generating credible answers to key policy questions is crucial but difficult in most coupled human and natural systems because complex feedback mechanisms can confound identification of the causal mechanisms behind observed phenomena. By using explicit research designs intended to isolate the causal effects of specific interventions on community monitoring of common property resources, and on the well-being of those resources and their human neighbors, the papers in this Special Feature offer an important advance in empirical sustainability science research. Like earlier advances in my own field of development economics, however, they suffer some avoidable interpretive and ethical errors. This essay celebrates the powerful potential of design-based sustainability science studies, much of it admirably reflected in this set of papers, while simultaneously flagging opportunities to improve future work in this tradition., Competing Interests: The author declares no competing interest.

Resource monitoring is often cited as important for effective common pool resources management. In practice, not all monitoring interventions are successful, particularly when the resource, such as groundwater, is challenging to monitor and measure. We conducted a field experiment on groundwater monitoring in Ceará, Brazil, where communities are increasingly reliant on groundwater yet do not engage in monitoring. Despite careful implementation, uptake of monitoring within the 80 treatment communities was low. To unpack this low uptake, we conduct multimethods exploratory research. We find that uptake is less likely in communities facing high coordination costs, either within the community leadership or across the broader community. Uptake is also less likely when there are physical barriers to monitoring, when there are more substitutes for groundwater, and when there is lower variability in water availability. Our findings can inform future monitoring interventions in similar contexts worldwide., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Knowledge of non-breeding distributions is a crucial component to seabird conservation, as conditions during the non-breeding period can play an important role in regulating seabird populations. Specifically, if seabirds from different colonies share the same wintering grounds, conditions in that shared region could have a widespread impact on multiple breeding populations. Red-legged kittiwakes (Rissa brevirostris) are endemic to the Bering Sea and may be especially susceptible to effects of climate change due to a restricted breeding range, small population size, and specialized diet. To examine whether red-legged kittiwakes from different breeding colonies overlapped in winter distribution and activity patterns, we used geolocation loggers to simultaneously track individuals from the two largest red-legged kittiwake breeding colonies in Alaska (separated by over 1000 km) during two consecutive non-breeding periods. We found that non-breeding activity patterns were generally similar between birds originating from the two colonies, but birds employed different migratory strategies during the early winter. Kittiwakes from Buldir Island in the western Aleutian Islands left the colony in September and immediately headed west, spending October through December around the Sea of Okhotsk and the Kuril Islands. In contrast, birds from St. George Island in the Pribilof Islands remained in the eastern Bering Sea or around the eastern Aleutian Islands for a couple months before traveling farther west. During late winter however, from January through March, birds from both colonies converged south of Kamchatka and east of the Kuril Islands over the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench and in the Western Subarctic Gyre before returning to their respective colonies in the spring. This late winter overlap in distributions along the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench suggests the region is a winter hotspot for red-legged kittiwakes and highlights the importance of this region for the global kittiwake population., Competing Interests: The authors have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: Abram Fleishman is employed by the commercial company Conservation Metrics, Inc. This does not alter the authors’ adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

The tropical forests of Central America serve a pivotal role as biodiversity hotspots and provide ecosystem services securing human livelihood. However, climate change is expected to affect the species composition of forest ecosystems, lead to forest type transitions and trigger irrecoverable losses of habitat and biodiversity. Here, we investigate potential impacts of climate change on the environmental suitability of main plant functional types (PFTs) across Central America. Using a large database of occurrence records and physiological data, we classify tree species into trait-based groups and project their suitability under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) with an ensemble of state-of-the-art correlative modelling methods. Our results forecast transitions from wet towards generalist or dry forest PFTs for large parts of the study region. Moreover, suitable area for wet-adapted PFTs is projected to latitudinally diverge and lose connectivity, while expected upslope shifts of montane species point to high risks of mountaintop extinction. These findings underline the urgent need to safeguard the connectivity of habitats through biological corridors and extend protected areas in the identified transition hotspots., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Amazonia hosts the Earth's largest tropical forests and has been shown to be an important carbon sink over recent decades 1-3 . This carbon sink seems to be in decline, however, as a result of factors such as deforestation and climate change 1-3 . Here we investigate Amazonia's carbon budget and the main drivers responsible for its change into a carbon source. We performed 590 aircraft vertical profiling measurements of lower-tropospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide at four sites in Amazonia from 2010 to 2018 4 . We find that total carbon emissions are greater in eastern Amazonia than in the western part, mostly as a result of spatial differences in carbon-monoxide-derived fire emissions. Southeastern Amazonia, in particular, acts as a net carbon source (total carbon flux minus fire emissions) to the atmosphere. Over the past 40 years, eastern Amazonia has been subjected to more deforestation, warming and moisture stress than the western part, especially during the dry season, with the southeast experiencing the strongest trends 5-9 . We explore the effect of climate change and deforestation trends on carbon emissions at our study sites, and find that the intensification of the dry season and an increase in deforestation seem to promote ecosystem stress, increase in fire occurrence, and higher carbon emissions in the eastern Amazon. This is in line with recent studies that indicate an increase in tree mortality and a reduction in photosynthesis as a result of climatic changes across Amazonia 1,10 ., (© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Technologies and practices that reduce the environmental impacts of US agriculture are well documented. Less is known about how best to encourage their adoption. We report on the results of a large randomized controlled trial conducted with nearly 10,000 agricultural producers in the United States. The experiment was embedded in US Department of Agriculture outreach efforts to improve soil conservation practices. USDA varied the content of mailings to test two sets of competing theories about outreach to agricultural producers. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find no evidence that acknowledging the link between climate change and agricultural production discourages conservation action. Furthermore, we find that producers who were invited to a webinar were less likely to take any action to learn more about conservation practices than producers who were not told about the webinar, a result that runs counter to the popular wisdom that offering more options leads to more action., Competing Interests: JF is employed by New York Life, which had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Empirical measurements of ecological networks such as food webs and mutualistic networks are often rich in structure but also noisy and error-prone, particularly for rare species for which observations are sparse. Focusing on the case of plant-pollinator networks, we here describe a Bayesian statistical technique that allows us to make accurate estimates of network structure and ecological metrics from such noisy observational data. Our method yields not only estimates of these quantities, but also estimates of their statistical errors, paving the way for principled statistical analyses of ecological variables and outcomes. We demonstrate the use of the method with an application to previously published data on plant-pollinator networks in the Seychelles archipelago and Kosciusko National Park, calculating estimates of network structure, network nestedness, and other characteristics.

Cleanup of contaminated waste sites is a National priority to protect human health and the environment, while restoring land to productive uses. While there are uncertainties with understanding risk to individuals from exposure, the aim of this study was to focus on uncertainties and complexities for ecological systems, complicated by hundreds of species occupying any remediation site which participate in multiple-interacting food webs. The ability to better predict the effectiveness of remediation in fostering future ecosystems might facilitate remedy selection and improve strategic environmental management. This investigation examined (1) uncertainties in ecosystem processes, (2) uncertainties in exposure from contamination before remediation, and (3) uncertainties during remediation. Two Department of Energy sites Hanford Site and Savannah River Site were used as case studies to illustrate how the uncertainties affect eco-receptors. Several types of ecological, physical, and human dimension uncertainties are defined. Ecological uncertainties include temporal, spatial, individual, developmental, and exogenous types. Physical uncertainties are weather-related, watershed variations, slope/aspect, soil/sediment structure and form, unforeseen events, and temporal patterns. Human dimension uncertainties include current land use, future land use, extractive and non-extractive recreation. The effects of remedial strategies varied between the two sites because Hanford is a primarily arid shrub-steppe ecotype, while Savannah River is a wet forest ecotype. Defining the associated ecological sensitivities and uncertainties and providing examples might help policy-makers, managers, planners, and contractors to be aware of issues to consider throughout planning, remediation, and restoration. Adding ecological uncertainty analysis to risk evaluations and remediation planning is analogous to using safety factors in human health risk assessment.

Rockfish are an important component of West Coast fisheries and California Current food webs, and recruitment (cohort strength) for rockfish populations has long been characterized as highly variable for most studied populations. Research efforts and fisheries surveys have long sought to provide greater insights on both the environmental drivers, and the fisheries and ecosystem consequences, of this variability. Here, variability in the temporal and spatial abundance and distribution patterns of young-of-the-year (YOY) rockfishes are described based on midwater trawl surveys conducted throughout the coastal waters of California Current between 2001 and 2019. Results confirm that the abundance of winter-spawning rockfish taxa in particular is highly variable over space and time. Although there is considerable spatial coherence in these relative abundance patterns, there are many years in which abundance patterns are very heterogeneous over the scale of the California Current. Results also confirm that the high abundance levels of YOY rockfish observed during the 2014-2016 large marine heatwave were largely coastwide events. Species association patterns of pelagic YOY for over 20 rockfish taxa in space and time are also described. The overall results will help inform future fisheries-independent surveys, and will improve future indices of recruitment strength used to inform stock assessment models and marine ecosystem status reports., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The impact of protected areas on local communities is the subject of intense discussions as part of the implementation of the global ecosystem protection agenda. Conflicts between the interests of environmental protection and the needs of socio-economic development become particularly acute when large areas of land are taken out of economic circulation as a result of organizing protected areas. In this case, there is an urgent need for detailed and reliable information about the social impacts of such land withdrawal on the well-being of the local population. An analysis of the methodological approaches widely presented in the literature, used to assess the social impact of protected areas, testifies to the insufficiency of completed and practically applicable methodological guidelines for the areas with significant restrictions for people who form part of the protected landscape. In this study, we understand the cost estimate of the social impact of national parks on the local population as a quantitative calculation of the losses due to restrictions on their ownership rights to land and property assets. The methodological approach consists in considering the category of losses as a sum total of the actual damage and lost profits. The assessment algorithm includes three stages: systematization of social impacts on citizens, development of indicators and data collection, and calculation of actual damage to the population and lost profits. The assessment is performed using the example of the Tunkinsky National Park located in the Tunkinsky municipal district of the Republic of Buryatia, a region of the Russian Federation, where there are 14 rural settlements with a population of more than 20,000 people. The results of the calculations show that the losses of the rural population due to legal restrictions on the registration of land dealings amount to 170.4 million USD. Taking into account the potential amount of administrative fines and the value of property subject to demolition, the losses amount to 239.2 million USD. It is more than an order of magnitude greater than the amount of own revenues of the Tunkinsky municipal district in 2011-2019. The results obtained demonstrate the real picture of the impact of restrictions on the rights of local people to land within the boundaries of national parks and are useful for developing measures to account for their interests and include protected areas in the socio-economic development of regions. The methodological approach developed by the authors can be used in other national parks, where it is necessary to optimize the policy of improving land use for local residents., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Urban tree cover provides benefits to human health and well-being, but previous studies suggest that tree cover is often inequitably distributed. Here, we use National Agriculture Imagery Program digital ortho photographs to survey the tree cover inequality for Census blocks in US large urbanized areas, home to 167 million people across 5,723 municipalities and other Census-designated places. We compared tree cover to summer land surface temperature, as measured using Landsat imagery. In 92% of the urbanized areas surveyed, low-income blocks have less tree cover than high-income blocks. On average, low-income blocks have 15.2% less tree cover and are 1.5⁰C hotter than high-income blocks. The greatest difference between low- and high-income blocks was found in urbanized areas in the Northeast of the United States, where low-income blocks in some urbanized areas have 30% less tree cover and are 4.0⁰C hotter. Even after controlling for population density and built-up intensity, the positive association between income and tree cover is significant, as is the positive association between proportion non-Hispanic white and tree cover. We estimate, after controlling for population density, that low-income blocks have 62 million fewer trees than high-income blocks, equal to a compensatory value of $56 billion ($1,349/person). An investment in tree planting and natural regeneration of $17.6 billion would be needed to close the tree cover disparity, benefitting 42 million people in low-income blocks., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

This study investigated major healthy and sustainable dietary patterns in the Dutch population. Two 24-hour dietary recalls were collected in 2078 participants aged 19-79 years in the Dutch National Food Consumption Survey 2012-2016. Dietary patterns were identified using reduced rank regression. Predictor variables were food groups and response variables were Dutch Healthy Diet index 2015 (DHD15-index) score, greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), and blue water use. Three patterns were discovered, including a "high fruit and vegetable dietary pattern", a "low meat dietary pattern", and a "high dairy, low fruit juices dietary pattern". Diets in the highest quartile of these patterns had higher DHD15-index score than the average population. However, diets of the "high fruit and vegetable dietary pattern" were associated with higher dietary GHGE (14%) and blue water use (69.2%) compared to the average population. Diets of the "low meat dietary pattern" were associated with lower GHGE (19.6%) and higher blue water use (7.7%). Concluding, the "low meat dietary pattern" was the most healthy and sustainable dietary pattern in this population. The addition of blue water use as an environmental impact indicator shows the difficulty of finding existing dietary patterns that have low environmental impact in all determinants.

In the Amazon rainforest, land use following deforestation is diverse and dynamic. Mounting evidence indicates that the climatic impacts of forest loss can also vary considerably, depending on specific features of the affected areas. The size of the deforested patches, for instance, was shown to modulate the characteristics of local climatic impacts. Nonetheless, the influence of different types of land use and management strategies on the magnitude of local climatic changes remains uncertain. Here, we evaluated the impacts of large-scale commodity farming and rural settlements on surface temperature, rainfall patterns, and energy fluxes. Our results reveal that changes in land-atmosphere coupling are induced not only by deforestation size but also, by land use type and management patterns inside the deforested areas. We provide evidence that, in comparison with rural settlements, deforestation caused by large-scale commodity agriculture is more likely to reduce convective rainfall and increase land surface temperature. We demonstrate that these differences are mainly caused by a more intensive management of the land, resulting in significantly lower vegetation cover throughout the year, which reduces latent heat flux. Our findings indicate an urgent need for alternative agricultural practices, as well as forest restoration, for maintaining ecosystem processes and mitigating change in the local climates across the Amazon basin., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.