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Abstract One of the risks faced by retirees is the possibility of outliving money saved for the retirement years. Knowing the sustainability of withdrawal rates from a portfolio, or at [...]

The number of people who have undetected and untreated gonorrhea or chlamydia infection may be as great as the number who are actually diagnosed and treated. This was the case in Baltimore, MD, between January 1997 and September 1998, where 8% of the population was estimated to have undetected and untreated gonorrhea or chlamydia based on a sample of 579 people., Context The prevalence and distribution of gonococcal and chlamydial infections in the general population are poorly understood. Development of nucleic acid amplification tests, such as the ligase chain reaction assay, provides new opportunities to estimate the prevalence of untreated infections in the population. Objective To estimate the overall prevalence of untreated gonococcal and chlamydial infections and to describe patterns of infection within specific demographic subgroups of the young adult population in Baltimore, Md. Design and Setting Cross-sectional behavioral survey based on a probability sample of Baltimore households with collection of urine specimens between January 1997 and September 1998. Participants A total of 728 adults aged 18 to 35 years completed the interview portion of the study, and 579 of these respondents also provided a urine specimen adequate for testing. Main Outcome Measure Prevalence of untreated infection, as measured by the percentage of specimens testing positive for gonococcal and chlamydial infection by ligase chain reaction, weighted to reflect variations in probabilities of sample selection from the population. Alternate estimates of the prevalence of recent treated infection were derived from clinically diagnosed cases reported to the Baltimore City Health Department and by diagnoses reported by participants in the survey. Results An estimated 5.3% (SE, 1.4%) of the population aged 18 to 35 years has an untreated gonococcal infection, and 3.0% (SE, 0.8%) is estimated to have an untreated chlamydial infection. While 7.9% (SE, 1.6%) of the population is estimated to have either an untreated gonococcal or chlamydial infection, estimated prevalence is substantially higher among black women (15.0%; SE, 3.7%). Few participants with untreated infections reported dysuria or discharge during the 6 months preceding testing. The estimated number of untreated gonococcal infections in the population (9241; SE, 2441) substantially exceeds both the number of such infections diagnosed among Baltimore adults aged 18 to 35 years and reported to the Baltimore City Health Department during 1998 (4566), and the estimated number of diagnoses derived using participants' reports for the 12 months prior to the survey (4708 [SE, 1918) to 5231 [SE, 2092]). The estimated number of untreated chlamydial infections (5231; SE, 1395) is also greater than the n umber of cases reported to the health department in 1998 (3664) but is slightly less than the estimated number of diagnoses derived using participants' reports of chlamydial infections diagnosed during the 12 months prior to the survey (5580 [SE, 1918] to 6975 [SE, 2441]). Conclusion In 1997-1998, the estimated number of undiagnosed gonococcal and chlamydial infections prevalent in the population of Baltimore adults aged 18 to 35 years approached or exceeded the number of infections that were diagnosed and treated annually.

Abstract Background During the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic, policy makers debated over whether, when, and how long to close schools. While closing schools could have reduced influenza transmission thereby preventing cases, deaths, and health care costs, it may also have incurred substantial costs from increased childcare needs and lost productivity by teachers and other school employees. Methods A combination of agent-based and Monte Carlo economic simulation modeling was used to determine the cost-benefit of closing schools (vs. not closing schools) for different durations (range: 1 to 8 weeks) and symptomatic case incidence triggers (range: 1 to 30) for the state of Pennsylvania during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic. Different scenarios varied the basic reproductive rate (R0) from 1.2, 1.6, to 2.0 and used case-hospitalization and case-fatality rates from the 2009 epidemic. Additional analyses determined the cost per influenza case averted of implementing school closure. Results For all scenarios explored, closing schools resulted in substantially higher net costs than not closing schools. For R0 = 1.2, 1.6, and 2.0 epidemics, closing schools for 8 weeks would have resulted in median net costs of $21.0 billion (95% Range: $8.0 - $45.3 billion). The median cost per influenza case averted would have been $14,185 ($5,423 - $30,565) for R0 = 1.2, $25,253 ($9,501 - $53,461) for R0 = 1.6, and $23,483 ($8,870 - $50,926) for R0 = 2.0. Conclusions Our study suggests that closing schools during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic could have resulted in substantial costs to society as the potential costs of lost productivity and childcare could have far outweighed the cost savings in preventing influenza cases.

Abstract Background The National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases have established central repositories for the collection of DNA, biological samples, and clinical data to be catalogued at a single site. Here we present an overview of the site which stores the clinical data and links to biospecimens. Description The NIDDK Data repository is a web-enabled resource cataloguing clinical trial data and supporting information from NIDDK supported studies. The Data Repository allows for the co-location of multiple electronic datasets that were created as part of clinical investigations. The Data Repository does not serve the role of a Data Coordinating Center, but rather as a warehouse for the clinical findings once the trials have been completed. Because both biological and genetic samples are collected from many of the studies, a data management system for the cataloguing and retrieval of samples was developed. Conclusion The Data Repository provides a unique resource for researchers in the clinical areas supported by NIDDK. In addition to providing a warehouse of data, Data Repository staff work with the users to educate them on the datasets as well as assist them in the acquisition of multiple data sets for cross-study analysis. Unlike the majority of biological databases, the Data Repository acts both as a catalogue for data, biosamples, and genetic materials and as a central processing point for the requests for all biospecimens. Due to regulations on the use of clinical data, the ultimate release of that data is governed under NIDDK data release policies. The Data Repository serves as the conduit for such requests.