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Abstract In the phase 3 trial of the AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) vaccine conducted in the U.S., Chile, and Peru, anti-spike binding IgG concentration (spike IgG) and pseudovirus 50% neutralizing antibody titer (nAb ID50) measured four weeks after two doses were assessed as correlates of risk and protection against PCR-confirmed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19). These analyses of SARS-CoV-2 negative participants were based on case-cohort sampling of vaccine recipients (33 COVID-19 cases by 4 months post dose two, 463 non-cases). The adjusted hazard ratio of COVID-19 was 0.32 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.76) per 10-fold increase in spike IgG concentration and 0.28 (0.10, 0.77) per 10-fold increase in nAb ID50 titer. At nAb ID50 below the limit of detection (< 2.612 IU50/ml), 10, 100, and 270 IU50/ml, vaccine efficacy was −5.8% (−651%, 75.6%), 64.9% (56.4%, 86.9%), 90.0% (55.8%, 97.6%) and 94.2% (69.4%, 99.1%). These findings provide further evidence towards defining an immune marker correlate of protection to help guide regulatory/approval decisions for COVID-19 vaccines.

ABSTRACT The ability to measure neutralizing antibodies on large scale can be important for understanding features of the natural history and epidemiology of infection, as well as an aid in determining the efficacy of interventions, particularly in outbreaks such as the current severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. Because of the assay’s rapid scalability and high efficiency, serology measurements that quantify the presence rather than function of serum antibodies often serve as proxies of immune protection. Here, we report the development of a high-throughput, automated fluorescence-based neutralization assay using SARS-CoV-2 virus to quantify neutralizing antibody activity in patient specimens. We performed large-scale testing of over 19,000 COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) samples from patients who had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 between March and August 2020 across the United States. The neutralization capacity of the samples was moderately correlated with serological measurements of anti-receptor-binding domain (RBD) IgG levels. The neutralizing antibody levels within these convalescent-phase serum samples were highly variable against the original USA-WA1/2020 strain with almost 10% of individuals who had had PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection having no detectable antibodies either by serology or neutralization, and ~1/3 having no or low neutralizing activity. Discordance between neutralization and serology measurements was mainly due to the presence of non-IgG RBD isotypes. Meanwhile, natural infection with the earliest SARS-CoV-2 strain USA-WA1/2020 resulted in weaker neutralization of subsequent B.1.1.7 (alpha) and the B.1.351 (beta) variants, with 88% of samples having no activity against the BA.1 (omicron) variant. IMPORTANCE The ability to directly measure neutralizing antibodies on live SARS-CoV-2 virus in individuals can play an important role in understanding the efficacy of therapeutic interventions or vaccines. In contrast to functional neutralization assays, serological assays only quantify the presence of antibodies as a proxy of immune protection. Here, we have developed a high-throughput, automated neutralization assay for SARS-CoV-2 and measured the neutralizing activity of ~19,000 COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) samples collected across the United States between March and August of 2020. These data were used to support the FDA’s interpretation of CCP efficacy in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection and their issuance of emergency use authorization of CCP in 2020.