Search

Pollination is a key ecosystem service crucial for supporting agricultural production, economic growth, social inclusion, and environmental protection. Understanding the economic value of pollination and its impact on human health and nutrition is essential for effective pollinator conservation and management. This study evaluates the economic and nutritional value of pollination services in Nepal and quantifies historic changes in pollinator reliance. Using public data on agricultural production and commodity prices, in combination with published nutritional composition values, we employ the dependency-ratio method to quantify economic and nutritional value across different regions of the country and through time. We conservatively estimate the annual economic value of pollination services in Nepal at US $477 million, representing 9% of total agricultural revenue. Pollinator-dependent crops, particularly fruits and vegetables are the source of essential nutrients; 40% of plant-based vitamin A and 14% of vitamin C are directly attributable to insect pollination. The cultivated area of these pollinator-dependent crops has increased by 91% in Nepal over 20 years - 3.7 times faster than equivalent increases in non-pollinator-dependent crops. The decline in wild pollinators during the same time period poses a threat, leading to potential pollination deficits and crop losses. Our study underscores the importance of conserving and managing pollinators to ensure sustainable agriculture, food security, and nutrition. Targeted efforts, including policy interventions and conservation strategies, are needed to safeguard pollinator populations and enhance pollination services., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Dwindling groundwater supplies threaten food security and livelihoods. Output subsidies for farmers are a ubiquitous agricultural policy tool, yet their contribution to growing groundwater stress remains poorly quantified. We show how output subsidies guaranteeing the purchase of crops at higher than market prices may have contributed substantially to declining water tables in India. Our analysis suggests that these policies may have led to a 30% over-production of water intensive crops. In the northwestern state of Punjab, rice procurement can potentially account for at least 50% of the groundwater table decline over 34 years. In the central state of Madhya Pradesh, wheat procurement adopted in the late 2000s appears to have driven a 5.3 percentage point increase in dry wells and a consequent 3.4 percentage point increase in deep tubewells. These results suggest that well-intentioned but poorly designed subsidies can impose harmful externalities on the environment and undermine long-term sustainable development., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Okra (Abelmoschus esculentus) is a prominent vegetable crop in Asia, confronting persistent threats from pests such as leafhoppers, whiteflies, and shoot and fruit borers. Conventional chemical control methods, despite their adverse ecological effects, remain the primary approach for pest management. Indiscriminate chemical use has led to reduced biodiversity among natural predators and the disruption of food webs in ecosystems. To address these challenges, this study assessed the efficacy of integrated (IM) and biointensive (BM) pest management modules in comparison to conventional chemical methods (CM) for mitigating insect damage to okra leaves and fruits, and subsequently, their impact on okra yield. Our result revealed that the BM exhibited the least effectiveness but outperformed untreated control plots significantly. In contrast, both IM and CM significantly reduced damage from sap-sucking insects and borer pests. Notably, plots treated with the chemical module found decreased populations of natural enemies. The IM demonstrated the lowest fruit infestation rate (5.06%), yielding the highest crop production (8.97 t ha -1 ), along with the maximum net return (Indian Rupees: 44,245) and incremental cost-benefit ratio (3.31). Thus, the study suggested that the implementation of integrated pest management practices can result in higher okra yields and greater economic benefits. These findings shed light on the potential of sustainable agricultural practices as a safer and more economically viable alternative to chemical-intensive pest control in okra cultivation., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Crop price forecasting is difficult in that supply is not as elastic as demand, therefore, supply and demand should be stabilized through long-term forecasting and pre-response to the price. In this study, we propose a Parametric Seasonal-Trend Autoregressive Neural Network (PaSTANet), which is a hybrid model that includes both a multi-kernel residual convolution neural network model and a Gaussian seasonality-trend model. To compare the performance of the PaSTANet, we used daily data from the Garak market for four crops: onion, radish, Chinese cabbage, and green onion, and performed long-term price forecasts for one year in 2023. The PaSTANet shows good performance on all four crops compared to other conventional statistical and deep learning-based models. In particular, for onion, the (mean absolute error (MAE) for the long-term forecast of 2023 is 107, outperforming the second-best Prophet (152) by 29.6%. Chinese cabbage, radish, and green onion all outperform the existing models with MAE of 2008, 3703, and 557, respectively. Moreover, using the confidence interval, the predicted price was categorized into three intervals: probability, caution, and warning. Comparing the percentage of classified intervals about the true prices in our test set, we found that they accurately detect the large price volatility., Competing Interests: NO authors have competing interests., (Copyright: © 2024 Hong et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a catastrophic impact on public health, extending to the food system and people's livelihoods worldwide, including Bangladesh. This study aimed to ascertain the COVID-19 pandemic impacts on livelihood assets in the North-Western areas (Rajshahi and Rangpur) of Bangladesh. Primary data were collected from 320 farmers engaged in high-value agriculture using a multistage sampling method. The data were analysed using first-order structural equation modelling. The findings reveal a significant impact (p < 0.01) of the pandemic on all livelihood assets in Bangladesh. Notably, human assets exhibited the highest impact, with a coefficient of 0.740, followed sequentially by financial (0.709), social (0.684), natural (0.600), physical (0.542), and psychological (0.537) assets. Government-imposed lockdowns and mobility restrictions were identified as the major causes of the pandemic's negative effects on livelihoods, which included lost income, rising food prices, decreased purchasing power, inadequate access to food and medical supplies, increased social insecurity, and a rise in depression, worry, and anxiety among farmers. The effects of COVID-19 and associated policy measures on the livelihoods of high-value crop farmers have reversed substantial economic and nutritional advances gained over the previous decade. This study suggests attention to the sustainable livelihoods of farmers through direct cash transfer and input incentive programs to minimize their vulnerability to a pandemic like COVID-19 or any other crisis in the future., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Genetic improvement of crop varieties requires significant investment. Therefore, varieties must be developed to suit a broad range of breeding targets, such as yield and suitability to rainfall zones, farm management practices and quality traits. In the case of breeding for disease resistance, breeders need to consider the value of genetic improvement relative to other disease management strategies and the dynamics of pathogen genetic and phenotypic diversity. This study uses a benefit-cost analysis framework to assess the economic value of fungicide management and crop genetic improvement in disease resistance for Australian chickpea varieties., Results: When assessing the likelihood of growers switching to new crop varieties with improved genetic resistance to disease, the simulation results reveal that adopting these varieties yielded higher net benefit values compared to implementing current fungicide strategies across all rainfall zones. On average, the increase in net benefit varied between 2.6% and 3.5%. Conversely, when we examined the scenario involving modifying the current fungicide strategy, we observed that, on average, switching from the current fungicide management strategy to one which involved additional fungicides was beneficial in about 73% of the cases., Conclusion: Our analysis reveals the importance of factors such as commodity prices, production costs, disease-related variables and risk aversion in determining the economic benefits of adopting new crop protection strategies. Furthermore, the research reveals the need for accessible information and reliable data sources when evaluating the benefits of new agricultural technologies. This would assist growers in making informed and sustainable disease management decisions. © 2024 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry., (© 2024 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.)

Future trajectories of agricultural productivity need to incorporate environmental targets, including the reduction of pesticides use. Landscape features supporting natural pest control (LF-NPC) offer a nature-based solution that can serve as a partial substitute for synthetic pesticides, thereby supporting future productivity levels. Here, we introduce a novel approach to quantify the contribution of LF-NPC to agricultural yields and its associated economic value to crop production in a broad-scale context. Using the European Union as case study, we combine granular farm-level data, a spatially explicit map of LF-NPC potential, and a regional agro-economic supply and market model. The results reveal that farms located in areas characterized by higher LF-NPC potential experience lower productivity losses in a context of reduced synthetic pesticides use. Our analysis suggests that LF-NPC reduces yield gaps on average by four percentage points, and increases income by a similar magnitude. These results highlight the significance of LF-NPC for agricultural production and income, and provide a valuable reference point for farmers and policymakers aiming to successfully invest in landscape features to achieve pesticides reduction targets., (© 2024. European Union, Peter Witzke.)

Deliberate open burning of crop residues emits greenhouse gases and toxic pollutants into the atmosphere. This study investigates the environmental impacts (global warming potential, GWP) and economic impacts (net cash flow) of nine agricultural residue management schemes, including open burning, fertilizer production, and biochar production for corn residue, rice straw, and sugarcane leaves. The environmental assessment shows that, except the open burning schemes, fossil fuel consumption is the main contributor of the GWP impact. The fertilizer and biochar schemes reduce the GWP impact including black carbon by 1.88-1.96 and 2.46-3.22 times compared to open burning. The biochar schemes have the lowest GWP (- 1833.19 to - 1473.21 kg CO 2 -eq/ton). The economic assessment outcomes reveal that the biochar schemes have the highest net cash flow (222.72-889.31 US$ 2022 /ton or 1258.15-13409.16 US$ 2022 /ha). The expenditures of open burning are practically zero, while the biochar schemes are the most costly to operate. The most preferable agricultural residue management type is the biochar production, given the lowest GWP impact and the highest net cash flow. To discourage open burning, the government should tailor the government assistance programs to the needs of the farmers and make the financial assistance more accessible., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Rice is a crucial crop in Sri Lanka, influencing both its agricultural and economic landscapes. This study delves into the complex interplay between economic indicators and rice production, aiming to uncover correlations and build prediction models using machine learning techniques. The dataset, spanning from 1960 to 2020, includes key economic variables such as GDP, inflation rate, manufacturing output, population, population growth rate, imports, arable land area, military expenditure, and rice production. The study's findings reveal the significant influence of economic factors on rice production in Sri Lanka. Machine learning models, including Linear Regression, Support Vector Machines, Ensemble methods, and Gaussian Process Regression, demonstrate strong predictive accuracy in forecasting rice production based on economic indicators. These results underscore the importance of economic indicators in shaping rice production outcomes and highlight the potential of machine learning in predicting agricultural trends. The study suggests avenues for future research, such as exploring regional variations and refining models based on ongoing data collection., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Kularathne et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Vietnam's agricultural exports to China have remained strong, with the country maintaining its position as the top destination for Agri-products. This article primarily utilizes the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) Index, and Trade Complementarity (TC) index to examine the trade comparative advantage, and the complementary of twenty major agricultural products between China and Vietnam from 2012 to 2021. The study results showed that Vietnam and China frequently exchange agricultural products. Vietnam has more stronger competitiveness than China in terms of agricultural products. China's exports to Vietnam were highly complementary to Vietnam's imports in category 0 whiles Vietnam's exports to China showed strong complementarity with China's imports in category 2. This paper analyzes the complementarity and comparative advantages of agricultural trade between China and Vietnam, and proposes informed suggestions for policy-making to promote agricultural trade between the countries. The proposed suggestions aim to expand agricultural trade between the two countries, reduce the trade imbalance, and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Tian et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa need to increase to keep pace with food demands from the burgeoning population. Smallholder farmers play an important role in national food self-sufficiency, yet many live in poverty. Investing in inputs to increase yields is therefore often not viable for them. To investigate how to unlock this paradox, whole-farm experiments can reveal which incentives could increase farm production while also increasing household income. In this study we investigated the impact of providing farmers with a US$ 100 input voucher each season, for five seasons in a row, on maize yields and overall farm-level production in two contrasting locations in terms of population density, Vihiga and Busia, in western Kenya. We compared the value of farmers' produce with the poverty line and the living income threshold. Crop yields were mainly limited by cash constraints and not by technological constraints as maize yield immediately increased from 16% to 40-50% of the water-limited yield with the provision of the voucher. In Vihiga, at best, one-third of the participating households reached the poverty line. In Busia half of the households reached the poverty line and one-third obtained a living income. This difference between locations was caused by larger farm areas in Busia. Although one third of the households increased the area farmed, mostly by renting land, this was not enough for them to obtain a living income. Our results provide empirical evidence of how a current smallholder farming system could improve its productivity and value of produce upon the introduction of an input voucher. We conclude that increasing yields of the currently most common crops cannot provide a living income for all households and additional institutional changes, such as alternative employment, are required to provide smallholder farmers a way out of poverty., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Marinus et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Avoiding excessive agricultural nitrogen (N) use without compromising yields has long been a priority for both research and government policy in China 1,2 . Although numerous rice-related strategies have been proposed 3-5 , few studies have assessed their impacts on national food self-sufficiency and environmental sustainability and fewer still have considered economic risks faced by millions of smallholders. Here we established an optimal N rate strategy based on maximizing either economic (ON) or ecological (EON) performance using new subregion-specific models. Using an extensive on-farm dataset, we then assessed the risk of yield losses among smallholder farmers and the challenges of implementing the optimal N rate strategy. We find that meeting national rice production targets in 2030 is possible while concurrently reducing nationwide N consumption by 10% (6-16%) and 27% (22-32%), mitigating reactive N (Nr) losses by 7% (3-13%) and 24% (19-28%) and increasing N-use efficiency by 30% (3-57%) and 36% (8-64%) for ON and EON, respectively. This study identifies and targets subregions with disproportionate environmental impacts and proposes N rate strategies to limit national Nr pollution below proposed environmental thresholds, without compromising soil N stocks or economic benefits for smallholders. Thereafter, the preferable N strategy is allocated to each region based on the trade-off between economic risk and environmental benefit. To facilitate the adoption of the annually revised subregional N rate strategy, several recommendations were provided, including a monitoring network, fertilization quotas and smallholder subsidies., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Fundamental issues in sustainable development of competitive potato production in Indonesia are production and distribution inefficiencies. This study aims to examine the potato production competitiveness through competitive and comparative analyses as well as evaluating the impacts of government policy on potato production. This study employs Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) to analyse the cross-section data collected from six regencies in Indonesia. Potato production in Indonesia was profitable privately and socially. The highest value of competitive advantage was indicated by PCR value in the dry season in Wonosobo Regency, Central Java Province. The lowest values were found in Bandung Regency. Highest comparative advantage was revealed in Tanah Karo Regency, North Sumatra Province, during the rainy season. Highest comparative advantage was found in Bandung Regency, West Java Province, in the dry season. However, the social profit was lower than the private profit indicating the potato farmers dealt with disincentives due to imperfect market. It implies that increasing domestic potato production will be more profitable rather than import. The policy makers need to evaluate the recent policies on input and output markets as well as the supply chain of potato to cope with imperfect markets in order to increase farmers' income., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The study attracted to insinuate the inhabitant anomalies of the crop yield in the districts of the Punjab where climate variation, inputs utilization, and district exponents are indispensable factors. Impact evaluation of sowing and harvesting dates for rice yield has been analyzed. Suitable sowing and harvesting dates and potential districts for the crop are proposed. Data consisting of 13,617 observations of more than 90 factors encompassing valuable dimensions of the growth of the crops collected through comprehensive surveys conducted by the Agriculture Department of Punjab are formulated to incorporate in this study. The results establish the significant negative repercussions of climate variability while the impacts vary in the districts. The crop yield deteriorates considerably by delaying the sowing and harvesting times. Districts climate-induced vulnerability ranking revealed Layyah, Jhelum, Mianwali, Khanewal and Chinniot, the most vulnerable while Kasur, Gujrat, Mandi Bhauddin, Nankana Sahib and Hafizabad, the least vulnerable districts. Spatial mapping explains the geographical pattern of vulnerabilities and yield/monetary losses. The study ranks districts using climate-induced yield and monetary loss (222.30 thousand metric tons of rice which are equal to 27.79 billion PKR climatic losses in single rice season) and recommends: the formation of district policy to abate the adverse climate impact, utilization of suitable climate variation by adhering proper sowing and harvesting times, setting the prioritized districts facing climate-induced losses for urgent attention and preferable districts for rice crop., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Huge quantities of apple orchard waste (AOW) generated could be regarded as a promising alternative energy source for fuel and material production. Conventional and traditional processes for disposal of these wastes are neither economical nor environment friendly. Hence, sustainable technologies are required to be developed to solve this long-term existence and continuous growing problem. In light of these issues, this review pays attention towards sustainable and renewable systems, various value-added products from an economic and environmental perspective. Refined bio-product derived from AOW contributes to resource and energy demand comprising of biomethane, bioethanol, biofuels, bio-fertilizers, biochar, and biochemicals, such as organic acid, and enzymes. However, the market implementation of biological recovery requires reliable process technology integrated with an eco-friendly and economic production chain, classified management.

Background: Genetically modified (GM) crops have become a controversial global issue since their commercialization in 1996. However, despite technological advancements, only a few studies have investigated farmers' attitudes towards GM crops in Malaysia. Therefore, this study aims to analyse such attitudes and their determining factors. A validated questionnaire was distributed to farmers in the Cameron Highlands, Pahang (n = 176). SPSS software was used to analyse the descriptive statistics of the farmers' attitudes to GM crops, while SmartPLS software was used to determine the predictors., Results: Descriptive analysis shows that the farmers claimed to have a high level of self-efficacy, and perceived GM crops as possessing high benefits which translate into a highly positive attitude towards GM crops. However, at the same time, they rated GM crops as involving moderate risks and would incur moderate costs to farm, as well as acknowledging a low level of support from the government. The structural equation model (SEM) analysis demonstrates that five factors have been identified as direct predictors of attitude to GM crops: government support (ß = 0.364, P < 0.001), perceived costs (ß = -0.282, P < 0.01), perceived risks (ß = -0.227, P < 0.01), perceived benefits (ß = 0.205, P < 0.01) and perceived self-efficacy (ß = 0.199, P < 0.05)., Conclusion: This study contributes to the existing knowledge and provides empirical support in explaining the factors that influence farmers' decisions to adopt GM crops and have significant implications for the future development of agro-biotechnology in Malaysia and in other developing countries. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry., (© 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.)

Nutritional stability - a food system's capacity to provide sufficient nutrients despite disturbance - is an important, yet challenging to measure outcome of diversified agriculture. Using 55 years of data across 184 countries, we assemble 22,000 bipartite crop-nutrient networks to quantify nutritional stability by simulating crop and nutrient loss in a country, and assess its relationship to crop diversity across regions, over time and between imports versus in country production. We find a positive, saturating relationship between crop diversity and nutritional stability across countries, but also show that over time nutritional stability remained stagnant or decreased in all regions except Asia. These results are attributable to diminishing returns on crop diversity, with recent gains in crop diversity among crops with fewer nutrients, or with nutrients already in a country's food system. Finally, imports are positively associated with crop diversity and nutritional stability, indicating that many countries' nutritional stability is market exposed., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

This study was conducted in Farta district, south Gondar from 2019 to 2020 cropping years to identify rodent pest species and estimate damage caused on barley crops. Four independent barley crop fields (40 x 40 m each) were sampled randomly to estimate the loss. Two were located near Alemsaga Priority State Forest and the other two were away from the forest. Four (2 x 2 m) rodent exclusion plots were established at 10 m interval as control units in each selected experimental barley fields using fine wire mesh. Rodent pest species were collected using both Sherman and snap traps throughout the different crop growing stages. The damaged and undamaged barley tillers by pest rodents were counted on five 1 x 1 m randomly sampled quadrats for each selected experimental fields. Variations on pest rodent population between cropping years and sites were analyzed using Chi square test. The mean crop damages between cropping years and experimental field sites were analyzed using two way ANOVA. Arvicanthis abyssinicus, Mastomys natalensis, Arvicanthis dembeensis, Mus musculus, Lophuromys simensis, Tachyoryctes splendens and Hystrix cristata were identified as pest rodents in the study area. A total of 968 individual rodents (427 in 2019 and 541 in 2020) were trapped during the study period. There was a statistical variation (χ2 = 13.42, df = 1 and P<0.05) between trapped individuals of the two successive years. The crop fields near the forest were more vulnerable than away from the forest during both cropping years. Statistical variations was observed on mean crop losses between cropping years and experimental barley crop sites. The highest crop damage was seen at maturity stage and the lowest during sowing in all experimental plots and cropping years. The percentage of barley yield loss due to rodent pests was 21.7 kg ha-1. The monetary value of this yield loss was equivalent to 4875 Birr (121.9 US$ h-1). Alemsaga Forest as shelter and conservation strategies like free of farmland from livestock and terracing for soil conservation have great role for the high rodent pest populations in the study area. Field sanitation, trapping and using restricted rodenticides like zinc phosphide are the possible recommendation to local farmers against rodent pests., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Agrivoltaic combines crop planting and electricity generation on the same land, it is considered as an opportunity to resolve the competition for land use between food and energy production. In addition to growing crops, farmers can gain electricity with the installation of agrivoltaic systems on their farmland. They can use this clean energy for agricultural production or sell it for extra income. The Chinese government considers it an important strategy for "Targeted Poverty Alleviation". However, current methods of agrivoltaic provide uneven and low irradiance for crops, which usually results in reduced yield and low quality. In this study, an improved agrivoltaic system with a grooved glass plate has been designed, manufactured, and investigated, called Even-lighting Agrivoltaic System (EAS). Two experiments were conducted to test the effectiveness of the improvement. We measured the crops' light environment, the crop growth process, the crop yield and quality, the electricity generation, and calculated the Land Equivalent Ratio (LER) as well as the comprehensive economic benefits on the farmland per hectare. Under the EAS, crops grew fast and the yield was similar or better than that under the natural state. By adding supplementary LED lamps into the EAS, the soluble sugar content of lettuce increased by 72.14% and the nitrate content of lettuce decreased by 21.51%. The average LER of the EAS for common vegetables was 1.64 as demonstrated in this work. Comprehensive economic benefits outperform the installation and maintenance costs, thus, the EAS can increase farmers' income by an average of 5.14 times. The EAS provides new ideas and directions for the future development of agrivoltaic., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Global demand for food is increasing day by day due to an increase in population and shrinkage of the arable land area. To meet this increasing demand, there is a need to develop high-yielding varieties that are nutritionally enriched and tolerant against environmental stresses. Various techniques are developed for improving crop quality such as mutagenesis, intergeneric crosses, and translocation breeding. Later, with the development of genetic engineering, genetically modified crops came up with the transgene insertion approach which helps to withstand adverse conditions. The process or product-focused approaches are used for regulating genetically modified crops with their risk analysis on the environment and public health. However, recent advances in gene-editing technologies have led to a new era of plant breeding by developing techniques including site-directed nucleases, zinc finger nucleases, and the clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)/CRISPR associated protein 9 (Cas9) that involve precise gene editing without the transfer of foreign genes. But these techniques always remain in debate for their regulation status and public acceptance. The European countries and New Zealand, consider the gene-edited plants under the category of genetically modified organism (GMO) regulation while the USA frees the gene-edited plants from such type of regulations. Considering them under the category of GMO makes a long and complicated approval process to use them, which would decrease their immediate commercial value. There is a need to develop strong regulatory approaches for emerging technologies that expedite crop research and attract people to adopt these new varieties without hesitation.

This study develops a novel framework of heterogeneous producer attitudes towards risk to analyze different, stated and revealed, roles of crop insurance premium subsidies and underlying policy objectives of the government. The analysis reveals a strong connection and a complementarity between the roles of premium subsidies in increasing producer participation in crop insurance, inducing a desired separating equilibrium in the presence of asymmetric information, and transferring income to agricultural producers participating in the program. Developing an alternative design of premium subsidies that can achieve the stated government objective of increased producer participation and induce any desired separating equilibrium at significantly reduced costs, our study rejects the idea that the income redistribution taking place under the current policy design is necessary for increasing producer participation in crop insurance. Indeed, the current policy design reveals that premium subsidies are either a means of income redistribution or a policy failure., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The increased exposure of pastoralist communities in East Africa to climatic shocks has focused attention on the resilience of these communities. Although many social scientists directly or indirectly infer versions of homo-economic agents, increasing evidence in development behavioral economics, indicates that such assumptions may be misplaced. Despite on-going advances in the science concerning the effects of stress on dynamic changes in short-term cognitive capacity, there remains limited understanding of the effects of changes in cognitive capacity on economic decision making. The present research empirically evaluates the drivers of short-term changes in cognitive capacity-cognitive ability and heuristic use-and its effect on crop and livestock expenditure among predominantly poor Kenyan agro-pastoralists. Three rounds of cognition and survey data from Samburu, Kenya is analysed. The primary data was collected at the end of the 2015-16 East African drought and covers an 11-month period between October 2016 and September 2017. Dynamic panel estimation, employing maximum likelihood, is used on balanced and unbalanced data. Results indicate that fluid intelligence and heuristic use, along with literacy and stressors, affect crop expenditure. Perceptions of scarcity, relative to prior expectations, are also identified as an important determinant of short-term changes in cognitive ability. These results underscore the importance of better understanding the effects of short-term changes in cognitive capacity on economic expenditure among the poor., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The codling moth Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is a destructive pest of apple (Malus domestica (Rosales: Rosaceae)), pear (Pyrus spp. (Rosales: Rosaceae)), and other pome tree fruits; outbreaks cause significant ecological and economic losses. In this study, we used CLIMEX model to predict and evaluate the global risk of C. pomonella based on historical climate data (1989-2018) and simulated future climate data (2071-2100) under the RCP4.5 scenarios. Cydia pomonella exhibited a wide distribution under both historical and future climate conditions. Climate change is predicted to expand the northern boundary of the potential distribution from approximately 60°N to 75°N. Temperature was the most dominant factor in climatic suitability for the pest. Combinations of multiple meteorological factors (relative humidity and precipitation) associated with a failure to break diapause in certain regions also affect suitability, particularly in northern South America and central Africa. Irrigation only had a slight impact on species favorability in some areas. The projections established in our study present insight into the global potential suitability of C. pomonella under climate change scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Farmers should be aware of the risk associated with the pest based on the results, which would provide guidance for quarantine agencies and trade negotiators worldwide., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America.)

Reducing the costs from human-wildlife conflict, mostly borne by marginal rural households, is a priority for conservation. We estimate the mean species-specific cost for households suffering damages from one of 15 major species of wildlife in India. Our data are from a survey of 5,196 households living near 11 wildlife reserves in India, and self-reported annual costs include crop and livestock losses and human casualties (injuries and death). By employing conservative estimates from the literature on the value of a statistical life (VSL), we find that costs from human casualties overwhelm crop and livestock damages for all species associated with fatalities. Farmers experiencing a negative interaction with an elephant over the last year incur damages on average that are 600 and 900 times those incurred by farmers with negative interactions with the next most costly herbivores: the pig and the nilgai. Similarly, farmers experiencing a negative interaction with a tiger over the last year incur damage that is on average 3 times that inflicted by a leopard and 100 times that from a wolf. These cost differences are largely driven by differences in the incidence of human death and casualties. Our estimate of costs fluctuates across reserves, mostly due to a variation of human casualties. Understanding the drivers of human casualties and reducing their incidence are crucial to reducing the costs from human-wildlife conflict.Most of the tales were about animals, for the Jungle was always at their door. The deer and the pig grubbed up their crops, and now and again the tiger carried off a man at twilight, within sight of the village gates. "Tiger! Tiger!" (Rudyard Kipling, The Jungle Book , Collins Classics, 2010)., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Sugarcane aphid Melanaphis sacchari Zehntner is a significant economic pest of grain sorghum in the United States. Effective monitoring and early detection are cornerstones for managing invasive pests. The recently developed binomial sequential sampling plan estimates sugarcane aphid economic thresholds (ETs) based on classification whether a 2-leaf sample unit has ≤ or ≥ 50 M. sacchari. In this study, we evaluated eight 2-leaf sampling units for potential use in the sequential sampling plan. From 2016 through 2017, whole plant counts of M. sacchari were recorded non-destructively in situ on sorghum plants from 140 fields located in five states. Plant canopies were stratified into three categories. Two leaves from each stratum were used to compare linear relationships between M. sacchari numbers per two-leaf sample unit and total M. sacchari density per plant. Analysis revealed that two randomly selected leaves from the middle stratum accounted more variation for estimating M. sacchari density when compared to two leaves from the other strata. Comparison of eight two-leaf sampling units within plant growth stages were variable in quantifying variation of M. sacchari densities. When growth stages were combined, the standard uppermost + lowermost leaf sample unit and a unit consisting of two randomly selected leaves from the middle stratum revealed little difference in their enumeration of variation in M. sacchari density. Because other sample units were either less predictive and/or more variable in estimating M. sacchari density, we suggest that the (L1+U1) sample unit remain the preferred method for appraising M. sacchari ETs., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Foreign investors have acquired approximately 90 million hectares of land for agriculture over the past two decades. The effects of these investments on local food security remain unknown. While additional cropland and intensified agriculture could potentially increase crop production, preferential targeting of prime agricultural land and transitions toward export-bound crops might affect local access to nutritious foods. We test these hypotheses in a global systematic analysis of the food security implications of existing land concessions. We combine agricultural, remote sensing, and household survey data (available in 11 sub-Saharan African countries) with georeferenced information on 160 land acquisitions in 39 countries. We find that the intended changes in cultivated crop types generally imply transitions toward energy-rich, but nutrient-poor, crops that are predominantly destined for export markets. Specific impacts on food production and access vary substantially across regions. Deals likely have little effect on food security in eastern Europe and Latin America, where they predominantly occur within agricultural areas with current export-oriented crops, and where agriculture would have both expanded and intensified regardless of the land deals. This contrasts with Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, where deals are associated with both an expansion and intensification (in Asia) of crop production. Deals in these regions also shift production away from local staples and coincide with a gradually decreasing dietary diversity among the surveyed households in sub-Saharan Africa. Together, these findings point to a paradox, where land deals can simultaneously increase crop production and threaten local food security., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Maize production is one of the most important activities for the Honduran economy, both in terms of area cultivated and food security provided. This article reports the results of a survey undertaken to gauge knowledge, perceptions, opinions, and attitudes of Honduran farmers towards genetically modified (GM) maize. Data were collected from 32 maize producers in 2018-19, of both conventional and GM, in five different departments (regions) of Honduras. Results show that over 75% of interviewed farmers have significant knowledge of basic biotechnology concepts and GM maize. Overall, producers have a positive opinion about GM maize because yields are higher than conventional maize, and adopting farmers have higher incomes. A significant finding was the reduction in the number of necessary pesticide applications, 84% of interviewees who used GM maize did not apply any pesticides. Farmers indicate the two main reasons for using GM maize are higher incomes (48%) and ease of use of the crop (33%). Overall, GM maize impacts in Honduras could be greater if the federal government took on a more proactive role in knowledge dissemination and facilitation of credit access.

Little is known about the major issues leading to postharvest losses in Peru, which are estimated to be 15-27%. We surveyed 503 farmers from the lowlands and Andean regions of Arequipa to learn more about the major grains produced and issues encountered during drying and storage. Rice, common bean, and quinoa were the most grown crops in the lowlands while starchy maize was the most cultivated crop in the highlands. Most farmers (90%) dried their crops in-field directly on the ground, which exposes them to rodents, birds, and insect pests. The majority of farmers (92%) used subjective methods to assess grain moisture content. About 77% of farmers identified insects as a major challenge during storage but only 44% said they used preventive measures such as the application of insecticides. Among farmers who stored grain, the main reason was for household consumption (61%); while among those who did not store, the main reason was the need for immediate cash at harvest (75%). Farmers who experienced insect problems, who stored seed or grain for sale, who stored longer, or farmers from the lowlands were more likely to apply insecticides on their stored products. These findings provide an opportunity for researchers, development organizations, and government agencies to improve postharvest handling and storage in Arequipa by disseminating drying technologies, moisture assessment tools and hermetic storage solutions among farmers., Competing Interests: Dieudonne Baributsa is co-founders of PICS Global, a private company that is commercializing the PICS bags around the world; hence declare a conflict of interest. This study was conducted to assess postharvest challenges among farmers in Arequipa Peru for the purpose of exploring potential dissemination of handling and storage technologies including PICS bags. This competing interest does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials. The other co-authors do not have any conflicts of interest.

With rapid economic growth and urbanization, self-sufficiency in crop production has become central to China's agriculture policy. Accurate crop production statistics are essential for research, monitoring, and planning. Although researchers agree that China's statistical authority has considerably modernized over time, China's economic statistics have still been viewed as unreliable and often overstated to meet growth targets at different administrative levels. Recent increases in crop production reported by national statistics have also come under increasing scrutiny. This paper investigates crop production data quality from a planetary boundary perspective-comparing net primary production (NPP) harvested obtained from national statistics with satellite-driven NPP estimates that are supported by detailed observation of land cover, combined with observations on physical factors that limit plant growth. This approach provides a powerful means to check the plausibility of China's grain production statistics at different administrative levels that can generate insights about their discrepancies and can contribute to improved crop production measurements. We find some evidence of potential misreporting problems from the lower administration level where the risk of manipulation of statistics is higher. We also find problems from provincial-level major grain producers. These values can also affect the national totals. Although the numbers are affected by large uncertainties, we find that improving the spatial resolution of key agricultural parameters can greatly improve the reliability of the indicator that in turn can help improve data quality. More reliable production data will be vital for relevant research and provide better insights into food security problems, the carbon cycle, and sustainable development., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Mycotoxigenic fungi and their toxins are a global concern, causing huge economic and health impacts in developing countries such as Ethiopia, where the mycotoxin control system is inadequate. This work aimed to review the occurrences of agriculturally essential fungi such as Aspergillus , Fusarium , and Penicillium and their major mycotoxins in Ethiopian food/feedstuffs. The incidents of crucial toxins, including aflatoxins (B1, B2, G1, G2, M1), fumonisins (B1, B2), zearalenone, deoxynivalenol, and ochratoxin A, were studied. The impacts of chronic aflatoxin exposure on liver cancer risks, synergy with chronic hepatitis B infection, and possible links with Ethiopian childhood malnutrition were thoroughly examined. In addition, health risks of other potential mycotoxin exposure are also discussed, and the impacts of unsafe level of mycotoxin contaminations on economically essential export products and livestock productions were assessed. Feasible mycotoxin mitigation strategies such as biocontrol methods and binding agents (bentonite) were recommended because they are relatively cheap for low-income farmers and widely available in Ethiopia, respectively. Moreover, Ethiopian mycotoxin regulations, storage practice, adulteration practice, mycotoxin tests, and knowledge gaps among value chain actors were highlighted. Finally, sustained public awareness was suggested, along with technical and human capacity developments in the food control sector.

Recent expansion of croplands in the United States has caused widespread conversion of grasslands and other ecosystems with largely unknown consequences for agricultural production and the environment. Here we assess annual land use change 2008-16 and its impacts on crop yields and wildlife habitat. We find that croplands have expanded at a rate of over one million acres per year, and that 69.5% of new cropland areas produced yields below the national average, with a mean yield deficit of 6.5%. Observed conversion infringed upon high-quality habitat that, relative to unconverted land, had provided over three times higher milkweed stem densities in the Monarch butterfly Midwest summer breeding range and 37% more nesting opportunities per acre for waterfowl in the Prairie Pothole Region of the Northern Great Plains. Our findings demonstrate a pervasive pattern of encroachment into areas that are increasingly marginal for production, but highly significant for wildlife, and suggest that such tradeoffs may be further amplified by future cropland expansion.

Major environmental functions and human needs critically depend on water. In regions of the world affected by water scarcity economic activities can be constrained by water availability, leading to competition both among sectors and between human uses and environmental needs. While the commodification of water remains a contentious political issue, the valuation of this natural resource is sometime viewed as a strategy to avoid water waste. Likewise, water markets have been invoked as a mechanism to allocate water to economically most efficient uses. The value of water, however, remains difficult to estimate because water markets and market prices exist only in few regions of the world. Despite numerous attempts at estimating the value of water in the absence of markets (i.e., the "shadow price"), a global spatially explicit assessment of the value of water in agriculture is still missing. Here we propose a data-parsimonious biophysical framework to determine the value generated by water in irrigated agriculture and highlight its global spatiotemporal patterns. We find that in much of the world the actual crop distribution does not maximize agricultural water value., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Nature safeguards living organisms and the ecosystem functions and services delivered by them. Animal pollination is an important Ecosystem Service since it plays a key role for achieving the sustainable development goals by safeguarding worldwide food production. Thus, conservation of pollination services is a major priority for guaranteeing global food security in the long term. Here we evaluate the crop pollination services in Pará state (Eastern Amazon, Brazil) focusing on two questions: (1) What is the economic value of crop production and pollination service in Pará? (2) Which municipalities are most dependent on pollination services considering local economies? We found 36 crops produced in the state; 20 (55%) crops are dependent on animal pollinators. In 2016, crop production value (CPV) for Pará state was US$ 2.95 billion and total pollination service value (PSV) was US$ 983.2 million, corresponding to 33% of CPV in Pará. Highest PSV value crops were açaí palm (US$635.6 million), cocoa (US$187.6 million), soybean (US$98.4 million), and watermelon (US$26.1 million), accounting for 96% of Pará's PSV. Two municipalities (Medicilândia and Igarapé Miri) presented more than 50% of their GDP based on pollination services. In general, we found low crop diversity in the municipalities of Pará, suggesting an economic rural vulnerability for the state, mainly supported by the high productions of soy and açaí. Pollinator conservation and ecological intensified farming practices are urgent for supporting sustainable development for the state.

Previous field studies have reached no collective consensus on whether Bt corn, the most commonly planted transgenic crop worldwide, has significantly lower aflatoxin levels than non-Bt isolines. Aflatoxin, a mycotoxin contaminating corn and other commodities, causes liver cancer in humans and can pose severe economic losses to farmers. We found that from 2001-2016, a significant inverse correlation existed between Bt corn planting and aflatoxin-related insurance claims in the United States, when controlling for temperature and drought. Estimated benefits of aflatoxin reduction resulting from Bt corn planting are about $120 million to $167 million per year over 16 states on average. These results suggest that Bt corn use is an important strategy in reducing aflatoxin risk, with corresponding economic benefits. If the same principles hold true in other world regions, then Bt corn hybrids adapted to diverse agronomic regions may have a role in reducing aflatoxin in areas prone to high aflatoxin contamination, and where corn is a dietary staple.

Chemicals used to assure agricultural production and the feasibility of planting sites often end up in bodies of water used for crop irrigation. In a pot study, we investigated the consequences associated with the irrigation of maize with water contaminated by ciprofloxacin (Cipro; 0, 0.2, 0.8, 1.4 and 2.0 μg l -1 ) and/or glyphosate (0, 5, 25 and 50 mg l -1 ) on yields and food safety. Glyphosate in concentrations ≥25 mg l -1 prevented plant establishment, regardless of Cipro presence. Evaluations made at the V5 stage of plants reveal that Cipro concentrations ≥0.8 μg l -1 and glyphosate decreased photosynthesis and induced changes in leaf anatomy and stem biophysical properties that may contribute to decreased kernel yields. When those chemicals were applied together, kernel yield reductions were accentuated, evidencing their interactive effects. Irrigation with contaminated water resulted in accumulations of Cipro and glyphosate (as well as its metabolite, aminomethylphosphonic acid) in plant tissues. Accumulation of these chemicals in plant tissues such as leaves and kernels is a problem, since they are used to feed animals and humans. Moreover, these chemicals are of potential toxicological concern, principally due to residue accumulations in the food chain. Specially, the antibiotic residue accumulations in maize tissues can assist the induction of antibiotic resistance in dangerous bacteria. Therefore, we point out the urgency of monitoring the quality of water used for crop irrigation to avoid economic and food-quality losses., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no conflit of interest.Stephen.duke@ars.usda.gov Krishna.reddy@usda.gov, (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

This work aimed to evaluate in vitro antagonistic activities and mechanisms of endophytic yeasts against phytopathogenic fungi. A total of 407 yeast strains isolated from tissue of rice, corn, and sugarcane leaves were evaluated for their antagonistic activities against ten phytopathogenic fungi. Only strains of Wickerhamomyces anomalus and Kodamaea ohmeri were found to inhibit the growth of phytopathogenic fungi. Wickerhamomyces anomalus (seven strains) showed antagonistic activity against Curvularia lunata (cause of dirty panicle disease of rice), three Fusarium moniliforme strains (cause of bakanae disease of rice, stalk rot disease of corn, and red rot disease of sugarcane), and Rhizoctonia solani (cause of sheath blight disease of rice). Whereas four Kodamae ohmeri strains inhibited growth of F. moniliforme (cause of bakanae disease of rice). Antagonistic mechanisms of W. anomalus were based on the production of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) (mainly 3-methyl-1-butyl acetate and 3-methyl-1-butanol), fungal cell wall-degrading enzymes (β-1,3-glucanase and chitinase), and siderophores as well as phosphate and zinc oxide solubilization. As for K. ohmeri, the production of VOCs (mainly 3-methyl-1-butanol), β-1,3-glucanase and chitinase were hypothesized as possible mechanisms. The antagonistic activity of W. anomalus against these phytopathogenic fungi and of K. ohmeri against F. moniliforme, and the analysis of the VOCs produced by K. ohmeri are reported for the first time. Two W. anomalus strains, DMKU-RE13 and DMKU-CE52, were evaluated for controlling rice sheath blight disease caused by R. solani in rice plants in the greenhouse and found to suppress the disease 55.2-65.1%, whereas 3% validamycin suppressed this disease by 88.5%.

Worldwide, maize (Zea mays L.) is considered an important food and fodder crop. Compost as a soil amendment and potassium (K) could enhance the maize yield. Therefore, two field experiments were carried out in the two seasons 2017 and 2018 to study the effects of compost at three levels and four forms of potassium fertilization on the yellow maize hybrid 'Pioneer SC 30N11' yield components. To conduct the field trials, a split plot system in three replications was established. Three compost levels (0, 5 and 10 ton/ha) were in the main plots, and four potassium forms (untreated, nano-potassium fertilizer, humic acid and potassium sulfate) were in the subplots. Plot size was 10.50 m 2 , with 5 ridges with 3 m length and 0.7 m width. The results indicated that the application of compost (as organic manure) and the potassium forms significantly affected the plant height, ear length, grains number/rows, grains number/ear, 100- grain weight, straw and biological yields, grain protein and K contents in both seasons. Increasing the compost from 5 to 10 ton/ha increased the yield, its components, protein and K contents. The foliar application of nano-potassium followed by humic acid increased all the studied characteristics. The interaction between compost manure (10 ton/ha) and nano-potassium (500 cm 3 /ha) or humic acid (10 ton/ha) recorded the highest mean values for all parameters during both harvest seasons.

This study compares thirteen rice-based cropping systems in the coastal part of West Bengal, India in terms of productivity, profitability, energetics, and emissions. Information on the crop management practices of these systems was collected on 60 farms through a questionnaire survey. Rice-bitter gourd system was observed to have the highest system yield (49.88 ± 4.34 tha-1yr-1) followed by rice-potato-ridge gourd (37.78 ± 2.77 tha-1yr-1) and rice-potato-pumpkin (36.84 ± 2.04 tha-1yr-1) systems. The rice-bitter gourd system also recorded the highest benefit:cost ratio (3.92 ± 0.061). The lowest system yield and economics were recorded in the rice-fallow-fallow system. Rice-sunflower system recorded highest specific energy (2.54 ± 0.102 MJkg-1), followed by rice-rice (2.14 ± 0.174 MJkg-1) and rice-fallow-fallow (1.91 ± 0.327 MJkg-1) systems, lowest being observed in the rice-bitter gourd (0.52 ± 0.290 MJkg-1) and rice-pointed gourd (0.52 ± 0.373 MJkg-1) systems. Yield-scaled GHGs (YSGHG) emission was highest (1.265 ± 0.29 t CO2eqt-1 system yield) for rice-fallow-fallow system and was lowest for rice-vegetable systems. To estimate the uncertainty of the YSGHG across different systems under study, Monte-Carlo Simulation was performed. It was observed that there was a 5% probability of recording YSGHG emission > 1.15 t CO2eqt-1 system yield from different cropping systems in the present experiment. Multiple system properties such as productivity, economics, energy, and emission from all rice-based systems taken together, the rice-vegetable system performed consistently well across parameters and may be practised for higher economic returns with judicious and sustainable utilization of resources in the coastal saline tracts of the region., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Production systems that feature temporal and spatial integration of crop and livestock enterprises, also known as integrated crop-livestock systems (ICLS), have the potential to intensify production on cultivated lands and foster resilience to the effects of climate change without proportional increases in environmental impacts. Yet, crop production outcomes following livestock grazing across environments and management scenarios remain uncertain and a potential barrier to adoption, as producers worry about the effects of livestock activity on the agronomic quality of their land. To determine likely production outcomes across ICLS and to identify the most important moderating variables governing those outcomes, we performed a meta-analysis of 66 studies comparing crop yields in ICLS to yields in unintegrated controls across 3 continents, 12 crops, and 4 livestock species. We found that annual cash crops in ICLS averaged similar yields (-7% to +2%) to crops in comparable unintegrated systems. The exception was dual-purpose crops (crops managed simultaneously for grazing and grain production), which yielded 20% less on average than single-purpose crops in the studies examined. When dual-purpose cropping systems were excluded from the analysis, crops in ICLS yielded more than in unintegrated systems in loamy soils and achieved equal yields in most other settings, suggesting that areas of intermediate soil texture may represent a "sweet-spot" for ICLS implementation. This meta-analysis represents the first quantitative synthesis of the crop production outcomes of ICLS and demonstrates the need for further investigation into the conditions and management scenarios under which ICLS can be successfully implemented., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Coproduction of high-value bioproducts at biorefineries is a key factor in making biofuels more cost-competitive. One strategy for generating coproducts is to directly engineer bioenergy crops to accumulate bioproducts in planta that can be fractionated and recovered at biorefineries. Here, we develop quantitative insights into the relationship between bioproduct market value and target accumulation rates by investigating a set of industrially relevant compounds already extracted from plant sources with a wide range of market prices and applications, including <$10/kg (limonene, latex, and polyhydroxybutyrate [PHB]), $10 to $100/kg (cannabidiol), and >$100/kg (artemisinin). These compounds are used to identify a range of mass fraction thresholds required to achieve net economic benefits for biorefineries and the additional amounts needed to reach a target $2.50/gal biofuel selling price, using cellulosic ethanol production as a test case. Bioproduct market prices and recovery costs determine the accumulation threshold; we find that moderate- to high-value compounds (i.e., cannabidiol and artemisinin) offer net economic benefits at accumulation rates of just 0.01% dry weight (dwt) to 0.02 dwt%. Lower-value compounds, including limonene, latex, and PHB, require at least an order-of-magnitude greater accumulation to overcome additional extraction and recovery costs (0.3 to 1.2 dwt%). We also find that a diversified approach is critical. For example, global artemisinin demand could be met with fewer than 10 biorefineries, while global demand for latex is equivalent to nearly 180 facilities. Our results provide a roadmap for future plant metabolic engineering efforts aimed at increasing the value derived from bioenergy crops., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Background: Agriculture is the main means of subsistence for most of the population in developing countries. Crops that can increase their value with in situ processing have a big impact on the small landholder's economics. Moreover, crops such as coffee and cocoa beans have been very important for Ecuadorian farmers. In this study, we wanted to analyze if the climatic conditions exist for growing high-quality tea in Ecuador and determine the areas that will be less affected by global climate change in the future., Results: We used a GIS (geographic information systems) based analysis, together with ecological niche modeling to determine areas in Ecuador where Ceylon and Nilgiris tea varieties could be grown, which will maintain similar ecological conditions in the future, and have a high agricultural aptitude. In total, there are more than 150 000 ha in Ecuador that could be converted to high-quality tea plantations, most of them in the coastal provinces, with some specific areas in the Andean foothills., Conclusion: Ecuador has a significant amount of land with the potential to grow high-quality tea, with no significant ecological niche modifications due to climate change in the long-term future. Tea is a viable and potentially highly profitable crop for small landholders and should be considered by local stakeholders. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry., (© 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.)

As demands on agriculture increase, food producers will need to employ management strategies that not only increase yields but reduce environmental impacts. Modeling is a powerful tool for informing decision-making about current and future practices. We present a model to evaluate the effects of crop diversification on the robustness of simulated farms under labor shocks. We use an example inspired by the Florida production system of high-value, labor-intensive fruits. We find that crop diversification to high-value crops is a robust strategy when labor shocks are mild, and that crop diversification becomes less valuable as more simulated farms practice it. Based on our results, we suggest that crop diversification is a useful management strategy under specific conditions, but that policies designed to encourage crop diversification must consider broad effects as well as farm-level benefits., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) is a pollutant of widespread concern in the world and especially in China for its negative effects on agricultural crops. For the first time, yield and economic losses of wheat between 2014 and 2017 were estimated for the North China Plain (NCP) using observational hourly O 3 data from 312 monitoring stations and exposure-response functions based on AOT40 index (accumulated hourly O 3 concentration above 40 ppb) from a Chinese study. AOT40 values from 2014 to 2017 during the wheat growing seasons (75-days, 44 before and 30 after mid-anthesis) ranged from 3.1 to 14.9 ppm h, 4.9-17.5 ppm h, 7.3-17.6 ppm h, and 0.5-18.6 ppm h, respectively. The highest AOT40 values were observed in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The values of relative yield losses from 2014 to 2017 were in the ranges of 6.4-30.5%, 10.0-35.8%, 14.9-34.1%, and 21.6-38.2%, respectively. The total wheat production losses in NCP for 2014-2017 accounted for 18.5%, 22.7%, 26.2% and 30.8% in the whole production, while the economic losses amounted to 6,292 million USD, 8,524 million USD, 10,068 million USD, and 12,404 million USD, respectively. The important impact of O 3 in this area, which is of global importance, should be considered when assessing wheat yield production. Our results also show an increasing trend in AOT40, relative yield loss, total crop production loss and economic loss in the four consecutive years., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Since its origins, thousands of years ago, agriculture has been challenged by the presence of evolving plant pathogens. Temporal rotations of host and non-host crops have helped farmers to control epidemics among other utilities, but further efforts for strategy assessment are needed. Here, we present a methodology for developing crop rotation strategies optimal for control of pathogens informed by numerical simulations of eco-evolutionary dynamics in one field. This approach can integrate agronomic criteria used in crop rotations-soil quality and cash yield-and the analysis of pathogen evolution in systems where hosts are artificially selected. Our analysis shows which rotation patterns perform better in maximising crop yield when an unspecified infection occurs, with yield being dependent on both soil quality and the strength of the epidemic. Importantly, the use of non-host crops, which both improve soil quality and control the epidemic results in similar rational rotation strategies for diverse agronomic and infection conditions. We test the repeatability of the best rotation patterns over multiple decades, an essential end-user goal. Our results provide sustainable strategies for optimal resource investment for increased food production and lead to further insights into the minimisation of pesticide use in a society demanding ever more efficient agriculture., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Integrated nutrition and agricultural interventions have the potential to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of investments in food security and nutrition. This article aimed to estimate the costs of an integrated agriculture and health intervention (Mama SASHA) focused on the promotion of orange-fleshed sweet potato (OFSP) production and consumption in Western Kenya. Programme activities included nutrition education and distribution of vouchers for OFSP vines during antenatal care and postnatal care (PNC) visits. We used expenditures and activity-based costing to estimate the financial costs during programme implementation (2011-13). Cost data were collected from monthly expense reports and interviews with staff members from all implementing organizations. Financial costs totalled US$507 809 for the project period. Recruiting and retaining women over the duration of their pregnancy and postpartum period required significant resources. Mama SASHA reached 3281 pregnant women at a cost of US$155 per beneficiary. Including both pregnant women and infants who attended PNC services with their mothers, the cost was US$110 per beneficiary. Joint planning, co-ordination and training across sectors drove 27% of programme costs. This study found that the average cost per beneficiary to implement an integrated agriculture, health and nutrition programme was substantial. Planning and implementing less intensive integrated interventions may be possible, and economies of scale may reduce overall costs. Empirical estimates of costs by components are critical for future planning and scaling up of integrated programmes., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.)