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2. EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2016 : From A Climate Perspective

Author

Herring, Stephanie C., Christidi, Nikolaos, Hoell, Andrew, Kossin, James P., Schreck, Carl J., Stott, Peter A., Webb, Robert S., Werner, Francisco E., Knutson, Thomas R., Kam, Jonghun, Zeng, Fanrong, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Brainard, Russell E., Oliver, Thomas, McPhaden, Michael J., Cohen, Anne, Venegas, Robert o, Heenan, Adel, Vargas-Ángel, Bernardo, Rotjan, Randi, Mangubhai, Sangeeta, Flint, Elizabeth, Hunter, Susan A., Oliver, Eric C. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Holbrook, Neil J., Bindoff, Nathaniel L., Tett, Simon F. B., Falk, Alexander, Rogers, Megan, Spuler, Fiona, Turner, Calum, Wainwright, Joshua, Dimdore-Miles, Oscar, Knight, Sam, Freychet, Nicolas, Mineter, Michael J., Lehmann, Caroline E. R., Martins, Eduardo S. P. R., Coelho, Caio A. S., Haarsma, Rein, Otto, Friederike E. L., King, Andrew D., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Kew, Sarah, Philip, Sjoukje, Vasconcelos, Francisco C., Cullen, Heidi, Jézéquel, Aglaé, Yiou, Pascal, Radanovics, Sabine, Vautard, Robert, Sippel, Sebastian, El-Madany, Tarek S., Migliavacca, Mirco, Mahecha, Miguel D., Carrara, Arnaud, Flach, Milan, Kaminski, Thomas, Otto, Friederike E. L., Thonicke, Kirsten, Vossbeck, Michael, Reichstein, Markus, Yuan, Xing, Wang, Linying, Wood, Eric F., Funk, Chris, Davenport, Frank, Harrison, Laura, Magadzire, Tamuka, Galu, Gideon, Artan, Guleid A., Shukla, Shraddhanand, Korecha, Diriba, Indeje, Matayo, Pomposi, Catherine, Macharia, Denis, Husak, Gregory, Nsadisa, Faka Dieudonne, Imada, Yukiko, Shiogama, Hideo, Takahashi, Chiharu, Watanabe, Masahiro, Mori, Masato, Kamae, Youichi, Maeda, Shuhei, Sun, Qiaohong, Miao, Chiyuan, Zhou, Chunlüe, Wang, Kaicun, Qi, Dan, Yuan, Xing, Wang, Shanshan, Hu, Zeng-Zhen, Qian, Cheng, Wang, Jun, Dong, Siyan, Yin, Hong, Burke, Claire, Ciavarella, Andrew, Dong, Buwen, Freychet, Nicolas, Lott, Fraser C., Tett, Simon F. B., Sun, Ying, Hu, Ting, Zhang, Xuebin, Wan, Hui, Stott, Peter, Lu, Chunhui, Christidis, Nikolaos, Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan, Ciavarella, Andrew, Stott, Peter A., Hope, Pandora, Lim, Eun-Pa, Hendon, Harry, Wang, Guomin, Lewis, Sophie C., Mallela, Jennie, Grose, Michael R., Black, Mitchell, Risbey, James S., Uhe, Peter, Hope, Pandora K., Haustein, Karsten, Mitchell, Dann, Stott, Peter A., Christidis, Nikos, Herring, Stephanie C., Hoell, Andrew, Kossin, James P., and Schreck, Carl J.

Published
2018

5. Attribution Analysis of the Ethiopian Drought of 2015

Author

Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah F., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Otto, Friederike, O’Keefe, Sarah, Haustein, Karsten, King, Andrew, Zegeye, Abiy, Eshetu, Zewdu, Hailemariam, Kinfe, Singh, Roop, Jjemba, Eddie, Funk, Chris, and Cullen, Heidi

Published
2018

8. 13. A MULTIMETHOD ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF THE PROLONGED NORTHEAST BRAZIL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT (2012-16)

Author

Martins, Eduardo S.P.R., Coelho, Caio A.S., Haarsma, Rein, Otto, Friederike E.L., King, Andrew D., Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Kew, Sarah, Philip, Sjoukje, Junior, Francisco C. Vasconcelos, and Cullen, Heidi

Subjects
Droughts -- Research -- Brazil, Climate change -- Environmental aspects, Meteorological research, Water shortages -- Causes of, Business, Earth sciences
Abstract

Northeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2016 due to a five-year drought. Using multiple methods, we could not find sufficient evidence that anthropogenic climate change increased drought risk. Introduction. [...]

Published
2018
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20. Factors Other Than Climate Change, Main Drivers of 2014/15 Water Shortage in Southeast Brazil

Author

Otto, Friederike E. L, Coelho, Caio A. S, King, Andrew, Coughlan de Perez, Erin, Wada, Yoshihide, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Haarsma, Rein, Haustein, Karsten, Uhe, Peter, van Aalst, Maarten, Aravequia, Jose Antonio, Almeida, Waldenio, and Cullen, Heidi

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

Southeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2014/15. Anthropogenic climate change is not found to be a major influence on the hazard, whereas increasing population and water consumption increased vulnerability.

Published
2015
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26. What's Killing Pacific Whales?

Author

Cullen, Heidi, DeVogelaere, Andrew, and Ryan, John

Subjects
Marine mammals, Blue whale, General interest
Abstract

Byline: Heidi Cullen, Andrew DeVogelaere and John Ryan MONTEREY BAY, Calif - Tourists come here from around the world to watch whales. It's common to see humpbacks leaping out of [...]

Published
2019

27. Why Are Whales Dying?

Author

Cullen, Heidi, Devogelaere, Andrew, and Ryan, John

Subjects
Climate change -- Environmental aspects, Animal welfare -- Forecasts and trends, Animal populations -- Forecasts and trends, Gray whale -- Observations -- Food and nutrition -- Measurement -- Protection and preservation, Blue whale, Marine mammals, Market trend/market analysis, General interest, News, opinion and commentary
Abstract

MONTEREY BAY, Calif -- Tourists come here from around the world to watch whales. It's common to see humpbacks leaping out of the water and fin whales slapping the waves [...]

Published
2019

28. Cross-cutting principles for planetary health education

Author

Stone, Sara B, Myers, Samuel S, Golden, Christopher D, Molina-Garcia, Alejandro, Quistberg, Alex, More, Alexander, Helfer, Amanda, Mckinney, Amanda, Krzyzek, Amy, Torres, Ana Lauren, Bansal, Ankush, Kurth, Ann, Bolton, Annette, De Lorenzi, Arianna, Boyd, Arthur, Aimone, Ashley, Miheso, Barbara, Chandramohan, Balasubramanyam, Kois, Bethany, Pomerance, Caiti, Loy, Candace, Mullaly, Catherine, Tonne, Cathryn, Becka, Chandra, Ssemugabo, Charles, Sinden, Charles, Margolui, Cheryl, True, Cheryl, Walzer, Chris, Romanelli, Christina, Lowe, Christine, Baeder, Collyn, Howard, Courtney, Lucey, Daniel, Hunter, Danny, Collins, Darin, Crowther, David, Lopez Carr, David, McConville, David, Mena, David, Travis, Dominic, Adams, Ebeneezer, VanWormer, Elizabeth, York, Emily, You, Emily, Falceto de Barros, Enrique, Togami, Eri, Cushing, Erin, Andrade-Rivas, Federico, Boosman, Frank, Wimer, Gabrielle, Meredith, Gen, Kitching, George, Mancus, Gibran, De Leo, Giulio, La Torre, Giuseppe, Edwards, Grace, Hasan, Syed, Cullen, Heidi, Hawkins, Irana, Carter, Jacque, Orbinski, James, Heung, Janette, Coffin, Jeanne, Middleton, Jo, Lindenmayer, Joann, Hallberg, Johan, Patz, Jonathan, Dauernheimer Machado, Julia, Miller, Julia, Miedema, Kaitlyn, Wang, Karen, Burke, Kathy, Richmond, Katie, Durand, Kevin, Fitzpatrick, Kevin, Knowlton, Kim, Murray, Kris, Swamy, Latha, Kahn, Laura H, Peretz, Laurel, Allsopp, Leslie, Friedlander, Leslie, Marushka, Lesya, East, Linda, Grant, Liz, Concordel, Lucie, Masclans, Luisa, Charles-Ayinde, Makyba, Pappaioanou, Marguerite, Shimamoto, Mark, Ashinyo, Mary Eyram, Richards, Mary, Clark, Maynard, Dannheim, Mike, Bimaadziwin, Mino, Rahman, Mofizur, French, Nancy, Aristizabal, Natalia, De Paula, Nicole, Osano, Odipo, Aje-Famuyide, Olufunke, Narwal, Partap, Kinney, Pat, Conrad, Patricia, Furu, Peter, Jutras, Philip, Echaubard, Pierre, Pohl, Rachel, Guggenheim, Ralph, Rodrigo, Reis, Guinto, Renzo, McFarlane, Ro, Alders, Robyn, DeFries, Ruth, Sholts, Sabrina, Lee-Gammage, Samuel, Proesmans, Sam, Watson, Sangeetha, Sokolow, Sanna, Lalonde, Shona, Chakma, Shovon, Boylan, Sinead, Gaith, Smita, Roache, Sonia, Papageorgiou, Sophia, Blondin, Stacy, Rousseau, Stephane, Osofsky, Steven A, Stark, Susan, Clasen, Thomas, Ibrahim, Umar, Rossa-Roccor, Verena, Kurker, Vicki, Navarro, Victoria, Ingole, Vijendra, Harris, Violet, Lavey, Warren, Smith, Woutrina, and Hope, Zachary Miller

Subjects
Health (social science), Earth, Planet, Medicine (miscellaneous), Public Policy, Commission, Environment, Global Health, 03 medical and health sciences, GF075, 0302 clinical medicine, Community of practice, GF051, RA0565, RA0421, Political science, TD0194, Q0181, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Health Education, LB1025, TD0878, 030505 public health, QH0075, Health Policy, Communication, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Community Participation, R735, L1, Planetary health, Alliance, Socioeconomic Factors, Government, Engineering ethics, LB2361, 0305 other medical science, QH0540, Prejudice
Abstract

Since the 2015 launch of the Rockefeller Foundation Lancet Commission on planetary health,1 an enormous groundswell of interest in planetary health education has emerged across many disciplines, institutions, and geographical regions. Advancing these global efforts in planetary health education will equip the next generation of scholars to address crucial questions in this emerging field and support the development of a community of practice. To provide a foundation for the growing interest and efforts in this field, the Planetary Health Alliance has facilitated the first attempt to create a set of principles for planetary health education that intersect education at all levels, across all scales, and in all regions of the world—ie, a set of cross-cutting principles.

Published
2018

31. Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change

Author

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, primary, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, van Weele, Michiel, additional, Uhe, Peter, additional, Otto, Friederike, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Pai, Indrani, additional, Cullen, Heidi, additional, and AchutaRao, Krishna, additional

Published
2018
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34. Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought

Author

Uhe, Peter, primary, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Shah, Kasturi, additional, Kimutai, Joyce, additional, Mwangi, Emmah, additional, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, Jjemba, Eddie, additional, Cullen, Heidi, additional, and Otto, Friederike, additional

Published
2017
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35. Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

Author

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, primary, van der Wiel, Karin, additional, Sebastian, Antonia, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, Otto, Friederike, additional, Haustein, Karsten, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Vecchi, Gabriel, additional, and Cullen, Heidi, additional

Published
2017
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40. Think It's Hot? Just Wait

Author

Cullen, Heidi

Subjects
Climate change -- Environmental aspects, Extreme weather -- Environmental aspects -- Forecasts and trends, Hot weather -- Forecasts and trends -- Environmental aspects, Market trend/market analysis, General interest, News, opinion and commentary
Abstract

July wasn't just hot -- it was the hottest month ever recorded, according to NASA. And this year is likely to be the hottest year on record. Fourteen of the [...]

Published
2016

41. Solving the Weather/Climate Puzzle

Author

Cullen, Heidi

Subjects
Climate change -- Environmental aspects, Extreme weather -- Causes of, General interest, News, opinion and commentary
Abstract

LIKE politics, weather can be a contentious subject, especially when you throw climate change into the mix. One view holds that no single storm or drought can be linked to [...]

Published
2016

43. Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought.

Author

Uhe, Peter, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Shah, Kasturi, Kimutai, Joyce, Mwangi, Emmah, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, Jjemba, Eddie, Cullen, Heidi, and Otto, Friederike

Subjects
CLIMATE extremes, DROUGHTS, EVAPORATION (Meteorology), SOIL moisture, METEOROLOGICAL precipitation, EL Nino
Abstract

ABSTRACT: In 2016 and continuing into 2017, Kenya experienced drought conditions, with over 3 million people in need of food aid due to low rainfall during 2016. Whenever extreme events like this happen, questions are raised about the role of climate change and how natural variability such as the El Niño ‐ Southern Oscillation influenced the likelihood and intensity of the event. Here we aim to quantify the relative contributions of different climate drivers to this drought by applying three independent methodologies of extreme event attribution. Analysing precipitation data for the South East and North West of Kenya we found no consistent signal from human‐induced climate change and thus conclude that it has not greatly affected the likelihood of low rainfall such as in 2016. However, 2016 was a La Niña year and we show that this event was indeed more likely because of the specific sea surface temperatures. There is a trend in temperatures in the region due to climate change that may have exacerbated the effects of this drought. By analysing precipitation minus evaporation and soil moisture, simulated by one climate model only, we did not see a reduction in moisture in simulations in the current climate compared with simulations without climate change. However, there are expected effects of higher temperatures that our simulations do not cover, such as increased demand on water resources and stress on livestock. Although we find no significant influence of climate change on precipitation, we cannot rule out that temperature‐related impacts of drought are linked to human‐induced climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018
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46. Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change.

Author

van der Wiel, Karin, Kapnick, Sarah B., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Whan, Kirien, Philip, Sjoukje, Vecchi, Gabriel A., Singh, Roop K., Arrighi, Julie, and Cullen, Heidi

Abstract

A stationary low pressure system and elevated levels of precipitable water provided a nearly continuous source of precipitation over Louisiana, United States (U.S.) starting around 10 August, 2016. Precipitation was heaviest in the region broadly encompassing the city of Baton Rouge, with a three-day maximum found at a station in Livingston, LA (east of Baton Rouge) from 12-14 August, 2016 (648.3 mm, 25.5 inches). The intense precipitation was followed by inland flash flooding and river flooding and in subsequent days produced additional backwater flooding. On 16 August, Louisiana officials reported that 30,000 people had been rescued, nearly 10,600 people had slept in shelters on the night of 14 August, and at least 60,600 homes had been impacted to varying degrees. As of 17 August, the floods were reported to have killed at least thirteen people. As the disaster was unfolding, the Red Cross called the flooding the worst natural disaster in the U.S. since Super Storm Sandy made landfall in New Jersey on 24 October, 2012. Before the floodwaters had receded, the media began questioning whether this extreme event was caused by anthropogenic climate change. To provide the necessary analysis to understand the potential role of anthropogenic climate change, a rapid attribution analysis was launched in real-time using the best readily available observational data and high-resolution global climate model simulations. The objective of this study is to show the possibility of performing rapid attribution studies when both observational and model data, and analysis methods are readily available upon the start. It is the authors aspiration that the results be used to guide further studies of the devastating precipitation and flooding event. Here we present a first estimate of how anthropogenic climate change has affected the likelihood of a comparable extreme precipitation event in the Central U.S. Gulf Coast. While the flooding event of interest triggering this study occurred in south Louisiana, for the purposes of our analysis, we have defined an extreme precipitation event by taking the spatial maximum of annual 3-day inland maximum precipitation over the region: 29-31º N, 85-95º W, which we refer to as the Central U.S. Gulf Coast. Using observational data, we find that the observed local return time of the 12-14 August precipitation event in 2016 is about 550 years (95% confidence interval (C.I.): 450-1450). The probability for an event like this to happen anywhere in the region is presently 1 in 30 years (C.I. 11-110). We estimate that these probabilities and the intensity of extreme precipitation events of this return time have increased since 1900. A Central U.S. Gulf Coast extreme precipitation event has effectively become more likely in 2016 than it was in 1900. The global climate models tell a similar story, with the regional probability of 3-day extreme precipitation increasing due to anthropogenic climate change by a factor of more than a factor 1.4 in the most accurate analyses. The magnitude of the shift in probabilities is greater in the 25 km (higher resolution) climate model than in the 50 km model. The evidence for a relation to El Niño half a year earlier is equivocal, with some analyses showing a positive connection and others none. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2016
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49. The Drought and Humanitarian Crisis in Central and Southwest Asia: A Climate Perspective

Author

Agrawala, Shardul, Barlow, Mathew, Cullen, Heidi, and Lyon, Bradfield

Subjects
Climatology, Long-range weather forecasting, Droughts--Economic aspects, Droughts
Abstract

A persistent multi-year drought in Central and Southwest Asia has affected close to 60 million people as of November 2001. Chronic political instability in many parts of this region and the recent military action in Afghanistan have further complicated the situation. This report provides a climatic perspective on the severity and spatial extent of the ongoing drought and its social and economic impacts. The target audience for this report includes national, regional and international policymakers, humanitarian relief agencies, members of the research community as well as others with a general interest in Central and Southwest Asia and the causes and consequences of the persistent drought in the region. The report discusses underlying climatic mechanisms that might explain the causes for the persistent drought, and presents seasonal climate forecasts and their implications for the region. The principal conclusions of this report are as follows: Central and Southwest Asia represents the largest region of persistent drought over the past three years anywhere in the world. From a regional perspective, the ongoing drought is the most severe in the past several decades. Significant shortfalls in precipitation have led to widespread social and economic impacts, particularly in Iran, Afghanistan, Western Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Agriculture, animal husbandry, water resources, and public health have been particularly stressed throughout the region. Preliminary analysis suggests that the drought is related to large-scale variations in the climate across the Indian and Pacific Oceans, including the recent “La Niña” in the eastern Pacific. Current seasonal climate forecasting skill in Central and Southwest Asia is modest. IRI seasonal forecasts for the period November 2001-April 2002 are consequently for climatology or equal likelihood of above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation in the region. While not indicative of any pronounced trends, a climatology forecast is less dire than one indicating enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation.

Published
2001
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50. Clouded Forecast

Author

Cullen, Heidi

Subjects
Scientific satellites -- Analysis -- Reports, Weather forecasting -- Analysis -- Reports, Meteorological services -- Analysis -- Reports, General interest, News, opinion and commentary, National Research Council -- Reports
Abstract

Princeton, N.J. OUR ability to forecast the weather is in big trouble. Last month, the National Research Council concluded that the nation's system of Earth-observing satellites is in a state [...]

Published
2012

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