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Background Variations in the age patterns and magnitudes of excess deaths, as well as differences in population sizes and age structures, make cross-national comparisons of the cumulative mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic challenging. Life expectancy is a widely used indicator that provides a clear and cross-nationally comparable picture of the population-level impacts of the pandemic on mortality. Methods Life tables by sex were calculated for 29 countries, including most European countries, Chile and the USA, for 2015–2020. Life expectancy at birth and at age 60 years for 2020 were contextualized against recent trends between 2015 and 2019. Using decomposition techniques, we examined which specific age groups contributed to reductions in life expectancy in 2020 and to what extent reductions were attributable to official COVID-19 deaths. Results Life expectancy at birth declined from 2019 to 2020 in 27 out of 29 countries. Males in the USA and Lithuania experienced the largest losses in life expectancy at birth during 2020 (2.2 and 1.7 years, respectively), but reductions of more than an entire year were documented in 11 countries for males and 8 among females. Reductions were mostly attributable to increased mortality above age 60 years and to official COVID-19 deaths. Conclusions The COVID-19 pandemic triggered significant mortality increases in 2020 of a magnitude not witnessed since World War II in Western Europe or the breakup of the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe. Females from 15 countries and males from 10 ended up with lower life expectancy at birth in 2020 than in 2015.

Of the 58,186 coronavirus deaths among adults in England during March-December 2020, 77% occurred in hospitals, 93% were in patients >60 years, and 91% occurred within 28 days of positive specimen. Cumulative mortality rates were highest among persons of Black, Asian, other, or mixed ethnicities and in socioeconomically deprived areas.

Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate the trends of the incidence of and mortality from necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) in South Korea. Methods Claim data were extracted with diagnosis code, including all stage of NEC. Kaplan-Meier curves for cumulative mortality rates are presented by birth weight (Bwt) and gestational age (GA). Result The total number of NEC cases was 5840. The ratio of males to females was 1.2:1. There were 11.9 cases per 10,000 births. There were approximately 10 cases per 1000 preterm births and 50 per 1000 very preterm births. The mortality of patients born under 37 weeks decreased from 38.7% in 2007 to 20.9% in 2017. Male sex, lower GA, and lower Bwt were risk factors for mortality. Conclusions NEC incidence and mortality have been decreasing over time in South Korea. Male sex, lower GA, and Bwt were risk factors for mortality.

About 400 Bunaji cattle from 12 herds at three sites namely, Kurmin Biri, Madauchi and Ganawuri were used to study the productivity of cattle fed mineral supplements under village conditions. Two herds at each site were allocated at random to each treatment. Mineral blocks containing 11% P and local salt licks containing 96% NaCI which served as control were fed. Supplementation lasted three years. Mineral blocks were put out daily in the Kraals and taken in during rains and when the animals went grazing. Births and disposals were recorded. Animals were weighed monthly using portable barlo electronic scales. Animals grazed natural pasture and crop residues after harvest. Data were analysed using general linear models (GLM) procedure of SAS, Analysis were done for birth weights up to 18 months. Models used for analysis involved the fixed effects of location, herds nested within location, year and season of calving, parity, age of dam and sex of calf. The results showed that birth weights were significantly influenced by location (P0.05). Calving intervals were 530±62.9 and 503±54.8 days for mineral and salt respectively. Cumulative mortality percentage of calves to 9 and 12 months were not significantly affected by mineral supplementation (P>0.05). These were 11.1±5.00 and 13.4±5.31 and 17.4±5.06 and 24.0±5.43 for mineral and salt respectively. It is concluded that the provision of P-rich mineral blocks to agropastoral herds at strategic periods can improve the productivity of Bunaji cattle.

Piscirickettsia salmonis, the aetiological agent of salmonid rickettsial septicaemia (SRS), is a global pathogen of wild and cultured marine salmonids. Here, we describe the development and application of a reproducible, standardized immersion challenge model to induce clinical SRS in juvenile pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha), Atlantic (Salmo salar) and sockeye salmon (O. nerka). Following a 1‐hr immersion in 105 colony‐forming units/ml, cumulative mortality in Atlantic salmon was 63.2% while mortality in sockeye salmon was 10%. Prevalence and levels of the bacterium in kidney prior to onset of mortality were lower in sockeye compared with Atlantic or pink salmon. The timing and magnitude of bacterial shedding were estimated from water samples collected during the exposure trials. Shedding was estimated to be 82‐fold higher in Atlantic salmon as compared to sockeye salmon and peaked in the Atlantic salmon trial at 36 d post‐immersion. These data suggest sockeye salmon are less susceptible to P. salmonis than Atlantic or pink salmon. Finally, skin lesions were observed on infected fish during all trials, often in the absence of detectable infection in kidney. As a result, we hypothesize that skin is the primary point of entry for P. salmonis during the immersion challenge.

The main objective of this study was to estimate the cumulative mortality risk for lung cancer according to smoking status and exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) in Japan. We applied a life-table method to estimate the cumulative risk. Estimated lifetime cumulative risk for 20-year-old non-smokers, former, and current smokers was 3.2%, 7.6%, and 14.9% for men and 1.9%, 5.6%, and 7.2% for women, respectively. For males, the estimated risk was 3.2% for non-smokers not exposed to SHS and 4.1% for non-smokers exposed to SHS. For females, the estimated risk was 1.9% for non-smokers not exposed to SHS and 2.4% for non-smokers exposed to SHS. Lifetime cumulative mortality risk differed greatly according to smoking status. Moreover, SHS exposure resulted in observable differences in lifetime mortality risk. This study may be useful for the development of tailored prevention programs.

We conducted a time-series analysis of the relations between daily levels of allergenic pollen and mortality in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area with 153 378 deaths; 9742 from respiratory and 57 402 from cardiovascular causes. Daily (average) pollen counts of alder, birch, mugwort and grass were measured. In quasi-Poisson regression analysis, abundant alder pollen increased the risk of non-accidental deaths with an adjusted cumulative mortality rate ratio (acMRR) of 1.10 (95% CI 1.01–1.19) and of deaths from respiratory-diseases with acMRR of 1.78 (95% CI 1.19–2.65). Abundant mugwort pollen increased cardiovascular mortality (1.41, 1.02–1.95). These findings identify an important global public health problem.

BACKGROUNDPreliminary clinical evidence suggests an increased COVID-19 mortality associated with the variant of concern 20I/501Y.V1. The evidence outside the UK and a real-world comparison of variants spread and mortality is sparse. This study aims at investigating the association between COVID-19 mortality and SARS-COV-2 variants spread during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe.METHODSFor 38 European countries, publicly available data were collected on numbers of COVID-19 deaths, SARS-COV-2 variants spread through time using Nextstrain classification and countries’ demographic and health characteristics. The cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths and the height of COVID-19 daily deaths peak during the second wave of the pandemic were considered as outcomes. Pearson correlations and multivariate generalized linear models with selection algorithms were used.FINDINGSThe average proportion of 20I/501Y.V1 variant (B.1.1.7) was found to be a significant predictor of cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths within two months before the deaths peak and between 1 January – 25 February 2021, as well as of the deaths’ peak height when calculating the proportion during the second wave and the pre-peak period. The average proportion of 20A.EU2 variant (S:477N) was a significant predictor of cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the pre-peak period.INTERPRETATIONOur findings suggest that the spread of a new variant of concern 20I/501Y.V1 had a significant impact on the mortality during the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and that proportions of 20A.EU2 and 20I/501Y.V1 variants were associated with increased mortality in the initial phase of that wave.Research in contextEvidence before this studyEmerging evidence suggests that the new variant of concern 20I/501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7) may be associated with an increased risk of death. The 20A.EU2 variant (S:447N), observed firstly in July 2020 in western Europe, was found to be capable of increasing SARS-COV-2 infectivity. The evidence outside the UK is still sparse, same as a real-world comparison of distinct variants spread and mortality through time.Added value of this studyIn this study we investigated whether the change of the proportion of any SARS-COV-2 variant, including 20I/501Y.V1 and 11 other variants identified by Nextstrain up to 25 February 2021, has an association with COVID-19 cumulative mortality or with the height of the second wave COVID-19 mortality peak.Implications of all the available evidenceOur findings shed light on the causes of the increased COVID-19 mortality during the second wave of the pandemic in Europe. It shows the need for early containment strategies when the variant 20I/501Y.V1 emerges. These findings also support the need for systematic SARS-CoV-2 regular genome sequencing to control the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: Some formal demographic models describe mortality improvement in terms of averted deaths. In such models individuals who would have died in an earlier regime are instead revived and returned to the population to face the same age-specific mortality risks as the rest of the population. A closely related literature has examined inequality in terms of the number of years of potential life that are lost to deaths. Objective: The paper combines several results from formal demography to illustrate the potential gains in life lived from a sequence of revivals, in which everyone is revived 0, 1, 2,. . . times. Contribution: Mathematical analysis yields two new results: A generalization of Vaupel and Canudas-Romo's e† index to second and higher-order revivals, and an analytical expression that relates gains from revivals to the covariance of remaining life expectancy and cumulative mortality.

A major problem of storing and shipping eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica) from the Northern Gulf of Mexico in summer and early fall is their elevated mortality. A study was therefore conducted to determine whether heat shocking the oysters or conditioning them to aerial exposure prior to harvest could reduce their mortality during cold storage. Increasing the levels of stress proteins in bivalves has been shown to reduce their mortality when exposed to additional stressors. In this study, the levels of heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) proteins and cumulative mortality during cold storage, out of water, of market-sized oysters were measured, in summer, following (1) sublethal heat shocks (41 °C, 1 h) in the laboratory or (2) 3 weeks to 6 weeks of daily exposures to air (0 h, ~ 10 h, or ~ 18 h) in the field. In total, four heat shock and two aerial exposure studies were done. Consistently, heat shocks or 6 weeks of daily aerial exposures increased HSP70 levels in oysters but did not reduce their mortality during cold storage. Three weeks of daily aerial exposure did not increase HSP70 levels and only marginally reduced mortality; a significant reduction in cumulative mortality occurred in one of the aerial exposure studies after 7 days of cold storage (0 h [26%], ~ 18 h [8%]). In conclusion, upregulation of HSP70 proteins or aerial exposure during grow-out was not an effective tool in reducing the mortality of oysters harvested in summer and held in cold storage.

The opportunistic examination of factors associated with an outbreak of piscirickettsiosis (SRS) is described in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar post‐smolts held in an open netpen or in tanks supplied with raw sea water at a research aquarium in western Canada. During the outbreak, seawater temperature was significantly higher and salinity significantly lower in the netpen compared with the tanks. Mortality in the netpen began approximately 3 weeks prior to that in the tanks, and cumulative mortality in the netpen (34%) was significantly higher than in the tanks (12%). Piscirickettsia salmonis was confirmed by qPCR in tissues from moribund and dead fish and from colonies grown on enriched blood agar medium. Neither P. salmonis nor SRS were observed in salmon held concurrently in UV‐irradiated sea water. The elevated mortality was curtailed by treatment with oxytetracycline. These observations further indicate warmer, less saline and periodically hypoxic seawater are risk factors for SRS. UV irradiation of sea water is shown to be a tool for SRS management in fish‐holding facilities.

Susceptibility of hard clams Meretrix lusoria to birnavirus (BV) infections caused by temperature variations, from a mechanistic perspective, has rarely been explored. We used a deterministic susceptible-infectious-mortality (SIM) model to derive temperature-dependent key epidemiologic parameters based on data sets of viral infections in hard clams subjected to acute temperature changes. To parameterize seasonal pattern dependence, we estimated monthly based cumulative mortality and basic reproduction numbers (R0 ) between 1997 and 2017 by way of statistical analysis. Two alternative disease control models were also proposed to assess status of controlled temperature-mediated BV infection by using, respectively, control reproduction number (RC )-control line criterion and removal strategy-based control measure. We showed that based on RC -control strategy, when temperatures ranged from 15 to 26.8°C, proportion of susceptible hard clams removed should be at least 0.22%. Based on removal-control strategy, we found that by limiting pond water temperature to 25-30°C, together with increased removal rates and periods to remove hard clams, it is better to remove hard clams from June and August to reduce both mortality rate and spread of BV. Our results can be used to monitor BV transmission potential in hard clams that will contribute to government control strategy to eradicate future BV epidemics.

Silica provides expanded possibilities for use in horticultural crops. However, there are many crop pests on the lower surface of plant leaves. This is particularly challenging when silica is used because the material must have a direct contact with the insect to be effective. In this study, we evaluate the efficacy of two traditional forms for SiO2 and SNPs against two different pests Bemisia tabaci, Aphis gossybsii under laboratory conditions. LC50 concentrations were measured after 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours, respectively. The SiO2 residues of traditional and their Nano particles were studied in leaves of mint, thyme, stems and soil, as well as the effect of drying and boiling techniques in the pesticide removal were also studied. The results indicated that the cumulative mortality rate of white fly and cotton aphid increased with increased pesticide concentration and/or increased time. The highest value of mortality in the tested insects was recorded in 96 hours of traditional SiO2 application. In case of silica Nano particles (SNPs), the highest mortality rate of white fly values ​​were observed at concentration of 2.50 µg/ml after 48 hours of treatment. While, the same mortality value was observed at 2.50 µg/ml after 24h of treatment for A. gossybsii. These results indicate that A. gossybsii was more susceptible to silica and Nano-silica particles SNPs than B. tabaci and that the Nano-silica particles SNPs are more effective than the traditional silica. Conclusively, the results indicated that SiO2 of two forms plays the effective roles in integrated pest management and will be more effective when applied direct against white flies and aphis.

BackgroundForecasting models have played a pivotal role in health policy decision making during the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. A combined forecast from multiple models will be typically more accurate than an individual forecast, but there are few examples of studies of combined forecasts of COVID-19 data, focusing mainly on simple mean and median ‘ensembles’ and involving short forecast evaluation periods. We aimed to investigate the accuracy of different ways of combining probabilistic forecasts of weekly COVID-19 mortality data, including two weighted methods that we developed previously, on an extended dataset and new dataset, and evaluate over a period of 52 weeks.MethodsWe considered 95% interval and point forecasts of weekly incident and cumulative COVID-19 mortalities between 16 May 2020 and 8 May 2021 in multiple locations in the United States. We compared the accuracy of simple and more complex combining methods, as well as individual models.ResultsThe average of the forecasts from the individual models was consistently more accurate than the average performance of these models (the mean combination), which provides a fundamental motivation for combining. Weighted combining performed well for both incident and cumulative mortalities, and for both interval and point forecasting. Our inverse score with tuning method was the most accurate overall. The median combination was a leading method in the last quarter for both mortalities, and it was consistently more accurate than the mean combination for point forecasting. For interval forecasts of cumulative mortality, the mean performed better than the median. The best performance of the leading individual model was in point forecasting.ConclusionsCombining forecasts can improve the contribution of probabilistic forecasting to health policy decision making during epidemics, and, when there are sufficient historical data on forecast accuracy, weighted combining provides the most accurate method.

Limited endoscopy capacity usually represents the main barrier to the extension of screening to subjects older than 70, given the high positivity rate in this age group. We assessed CRC incidence and mortality by number of previous negative faecal immunochemical tests (FIT) among subjects turning 70. We selected persons aged 70 years who had received their last screening invitation when they were 68 or 69 years old within the population-based screening program in the Veneto region of Italy. Subjects with a positive FIT were excluded. We calculated 10-year cumulative CRC incidence and mortality in cohorts of subjects having performed zero, one, two or three negative FITs over the last three screening rounds before turning 70. Out of 117 858 subjects included in the study (46.4% men), 33.7% had never participated in screening (zero negative FITs), 23.3% had had one-, 20.1% two- and 22.9% three negative FITs. The 10-year cumulative CRC incidence was 29.7 per 1000 subjects with zero FITs, and respectively 14.5, 11.7 and 9.6 per 1000 subjects with one, two and three negative FITs. The corresponding figures for 10-year cumulative mortality were 9.3, 3.5, 2.2 and 2.1 per 1000 in the four study cohorts. Figures were roughly double for men than for women for all the study cohorts. In order to use more efficiently limited endoscopy resources, and to minimize the potential harms related to false positive results in the elderly, screening among people aged 70 to 74 might be restricted to those with zero previous negative FITs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Little is known about life expectancy in nursing home residents with hip fracture. We assessed life expectancy of 240 residents of residential aged care facilities who were aged more than 70 years old and experienced recent hip fracture treated with surgery. 149 deaths occurred over a mean follow-up of 1.2 years. Being female (coefficient (β) = 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.39, 1.34; p = 0.0004) was associated with longer life expectancy. Increased age was associated with shorter life expectancy (β=-0.06, 95% CI: -0.10 to -0.02, p = 0.0043). Relative to severe cognitive impairment, normal or mild-cognitive impairment (β = 1.18, 95% CI: 0.05 to 2.31, p = 0.0414) and moderate cognitive impairment (β = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.07 to 1.04, p = 0.0237) were associated with longer life expectancy. Mortality rate within three months after hip fracture was 118 cases per 100 person-years while the mortality rate for the whole study period was 51.3 deaths per 100 person-years. For females with hip fracture, life expectancy was 8.2 years at 70 years of age; 4.8 years at 80 years of age; and 2.8 years at 90 years of age. For males with hip fracture, life expectancy was 3.8 years, 2.2 years and 1.3 years at 70, 80 and 90 years of age, respectively.

Objectives We aimed to summarize the clinical presentations, therapeutic approaches, and outcomes of type B intramural hematoma (IMHB) patients with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Methods Patients with uncomplicated IMHBs were included between January 2016 and January 2018 and divided into two groups according to whether or not they had DM. Cox proportional hazard analysis was utilized to investigate the risk factors for aortic-related mortality. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to estimate cumulative mortality and aortic-related mortality. Results A total of 149 patients were included and were divided into the two groups (DM group [n=60] and non-DM group [n=89]). Patients in the non-DM group underwent thoracic endovascular aortic repair treatment more frequently (12% vs 2%, P=0.028) and had a higher reintervention rate during the follow-up (9 in 81 patients, 11% vs 2%, P=0.043). There were significant differences between the two groups regarding the aorta-related mortality rate during the acute phase (9% vs 0%, P=0.042) and the all-cause mortality rate (22% vs 7%, P=0.011). Ulcer-like projection (ULP) development (during the acute phase) (hazard ratio [HR], 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.31, P=0.008), C-reactive protein (CRP) levels (HR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.51-2.49, P

AimsTo generate a predictive model for the SARS-COV-2 viral reproductive rate, based on government policy and weather parameters.MethodsA multivariate model for the log10 of viral reproductive rate was constructed for each country using lockdown stringency (Oxford University tracker), temperature and humidity, for the 1st 110 days of 2020. This was validated by extrapolating to the following 51 days, and comparing the predicted viral rate and cumulative mortality with WHO data.The country models was extrapolated to July 2021 using projected weather forecast for four scenarios; continuing with the 11/6/2020 lockdown policy, 100% lockdown, 20% lockdown and no lockdown.ResultsFrom pooled data (40 countries), lockdown stringency had a strong negative correlation with log10viral reproductive rate (−0.648 at 21 days later). Maximum temperature correlated at -0.14, 14 days later and humidity correlated at +0.25, 22 days later. Predictive Models were generated for 11 countries using multivariate regression of these parameters. The R2 correlation for log10R0 ranged from 0.817 to 0.987 for the model generation period. For the validation period, the Pearson’s coefficient of correlation ranged from 0.344 to 0.984 for log10R0 and from 0.980 to 1.000 for cumulative mortality.Forward extrapolation of these models for 5 nations, demonstrate, that removing the lockdown will result in rapid spread of the disease ranging from as soon as July 2020 for Russia, UK, Italy and India to January 2021 for the USA. The current (11/6/20) lockdown in the USA, Spain, UK, France, Germany, Turkey can control the disease but other nations will need to intensify their lockdowns to prevent future resurgence. Most nations will require more stringent lockdowns in January than in July.ConclusionThe viral reproductive rate is highly predicted by a combination of lockdown stringency, temperature and humidity. Country specific predictive models can provide useful forecast of policy requirements.

Aim: To examine the magnitude of sex differences in survival from the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Europe across age and countries. We hypothesise that men have higher mortality than women at any given age, but that sex differences will decrease with age as only the strongest men survive to older ages.Methods: We used population data from Institut National D’Études Démographiques on cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 from February to June 2020 in 10 European countries: Denmark, Norway, Sweden, The Netherlands, England & Wales, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Portugal. For each country, we calculated cumulative mortality rates stratified by age and sex and corresponding relative risks for men vs. women.Results: The relative risk of dying from COVID-19 was higher for men than for women in almost all age groups in all countries. The overall relative risk ranged from 1.11 (95% CI 1.01-1.23) in Portugal to 1.54 (95% CI 1.49-1.58) in France. In most countries, sex differences increased until ages 60-69 years, but decreased thereafter with the smallest sex difference at ages 80+.Conclusions: Despite variability in data collection and time coverage among countries, we illustrate an overall similar pattern of sex differences in COVID-19 mortality in Europe.

It is widely believed that the herd immunity threshold (HIT) required to prevent a resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 is in excess of 50% for any epidemiological setting. Here, we demonstrate that HIT may be greatly reduced if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the virus due to innate resistance or cross-protection from exposure to seasonal coronaviruses. The drop in HIT is proportional to the fraction of the population resistant only when that fraction is effectively segregated from the general population; however, when mixing is random, the drop in HIT is more precipitous. Significant reductions in expected mortality can also be observed in settings where a fraction of the population is resistant to infection. These results help to explain the large degree of regional variation observed in seroprevalence and cumulative deaths and suggest that sufficient herd-immunity may already be in place to substantially mitigate a potential second wave.

A black-heart disease caused by polydorid infestation is reported for the first time in Kumamoto oyster Crassostrea sikamea Amemiya, 1928 spat in a pond at Beihai city, Guangxi province, China, with a prevalence of 100% and a cumulative mortality rate of 50% within 2 mo. In heavily infected oyster spat, blisters extended toward the center of the inner shell surface, around the adductor muscle scar area to form a large black area occupying approximately 50% of the area of the inner shell surface. Morphological analysis identified the pathogen as Polydora lingshuiensis Ye et al., 2015, which was reconfirmed by comparison of its corresponding 18S rRNA and mitochondrial CO1 gene sequences with those in the GenBank database. The mean abundance of mud blisters was significantly higher in live spat than in dead spat, suggesting that P. lingshuiensis preferentially infests live oyster spat. Additionally, P. lingshuiensis larvae were detected in the inlet near the dam, which suggests that the source of P. lingshuiensis larvae infecting the spat may be larvae entering the ponds through the water current from the sea.

Societal concern with the welfare of egg laying hens housed in conventional cages is fostering a transition towards cage-free systems in many countries. However, although cage-free facilities enable hens to move freely and express natural behaviours, concerns have also been raised over the possibility that cage-free flocks experience higher mortality, potentially compromising some aspects of their welfare. To investigate this possibility, we conducted a large meta-analysis of laying hen mortality in conventional cages, furnished cages and cage-free aviaries using data from 6040 commercial flocks and 176 million hens from 16 countries. We show that except for conventional cages, mortality gradually drops as experience with each system builds up: since 2000, each year of experience with cage-free aviaries was associated with a 0.35–0.65% average drop in cumulative mortality, with no differences in mortality between caged and cage-free systems in more recent years. As management knowledge evolves and genetics are optimized, new producers transitioning to cage-free housing may experience even faster rates of decline. Our results speak against the notion that mortality is inherently higher in cage-free production and illustrate the importance of considering the degree of maturity of production systems in any investigations of farm animal health, behaviour and welfare.

To optimize epidemiologic interventions, predictors of mortality should be identified. The US COVID-19 epidemic data, reported up to 31 March 2020, were analyzed using kernel regularized least squares regression. Six potential predictors of mortality were investigated: (i) the number of diagnostic tests performed in testing week I; (ii) the proportion of all tests conducted during week I of testing; (iii) the cumulative number of (test-positive) cases through 3-31-2020, (iv) the number of tests performed/million citizens; (v) the cumulative number of citizens tested; and (vi) the apparent prevalence rate, defined as the number of cases/million citizens. Two metrics estimated mortality: the number of deaths and the number of deaths/million citizens. While both expressions of mortality were predicted by the case count and the apparent prevalence rate, the number of deaths/million citizens was ≈3.5 times better predicted by the apparent prevalence rate than the number of cases. In eighteen states, early testing/million citizens/population density was inversely associated with the cumulative mortality reported by 31 March, 2020. Findings support the hypothesis that early and massive testing saves lives. Other factors —e.g., population density— may also influence outcomes. To optimize national and local policies, the creation and dissemination of high resolution geo-referenced, epidemic data is recommended.

Much of the uncertainty about the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic stems from questions about when and how non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) by governments, in particular social distancing measures, are implemented, to what extent the population complies with these measures, and how compliance changes through time. Further uncertainty comes from a lack of knowledge of the potential effects of removing interventions once the epidemic is declining. By combining an epidemiological model of COVID-19 for the United Kingdom with simple sub-models for these societal processes, this study aims to shed light on the conceivable trajectories that the pandemic might follow over the next 1.5 years. We show strong improvements in outcomes if governments review NPI more frequently whereas, in comparison, the stability of compliance has surprisingly small effects on cumulative mortality. Assuming that mortality does considerably increase once a country’s hospital capacity is breached, we show that the inherent randomness of societal processes can lead to a wide range of possible outcomes, both in terms of disease dynamics and mortality, even when the principles according to which policy and population operate are identical.. Our model is easily modified to take other aspects of the socio-pandemic interaction into account.

Background. We have studied human life expectancy in Croatia. Materials and Methods. Local daily papers reported obituitairies for 447 men and 366 who died in a month period. The data were analyzed with the median derivative power function model. Results. The median age of death was 76 and 81 years for men and women, respectively. Cummulative mortality increases at a constant rate after the age 60 y and 65 y for men and women, respectively (r2 = 0.99 and 0.98). Conclusions. Individual life span is a stochastic (random) biological event within the deterministic frame of cumulative mortality.