1. External validation of the parsimonious EuroLung risk models: analysis of the Brazilian Lung Cancer Registry.
- Author
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D'Ambrosio PD, Terra RM, Brunelli A, Lauricella LL, Cavadas CA, Fonini JS, Gross JL, Cipriano FEG, Silva FMD, and Pêgo-Fernandes PM
- Subjects
- Humans, Brazil epidemiology, Male, Female, Middle Aged, Aged, Risk Assessment methods, Risk Factors, Reproducibility of Results, Calibration, Lung Neoplasms mortality, Registries
- Abstract
Objective: The purpose of this study was to assess performance in the Brazilian Lung Cancer Registry Database by using the parsimonious EuroLung risk models for morbidity and mortality., Methods: The EuroLung1 and EuroLung2 models were tested and evaluated through calibration (calibration plot, Brier score, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test) and discrimination (ROC AUCs), in a national multicenter registry of 1,031 patients undergoing anatomic lung resection., Results: The evaluation of performance in Brazilian health care facilities utilizing risk-adjustment models, specifically EuroLung1 and EuroLung2, revealed substantial miscalibration, as evidenced by calibration plots and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests in both models. In terms of calibration, EuroLung1 exhibited a calibration plot with overlapping points, characterized by a slope of 1.11 and a Brier score of 0.15; the Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded a statistically significant p-value of 0.015; and the corresponding ROC AUC was 0.678 (95% CI: 0.636-0.721). The EuroLung2 model displayed better calibration, featuring fewer overlapping points in the calibration plot, with a slope of 1.22, with acceptable discrimination, as indicated by a ROC AUC of 0.756 (95% CI: 0.670-0.842). Both models failed to accurately predict morbidity and mortality outcomes in this specific health care context., Conclusions: Discrepancies between the EuroLung model predictions and outcomes in Brazil underscore the need for model refinement and for a probe into inefficiencies in the Brazilian health care system.
- Published
- 2024
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