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Climate change and its potentially harmful effects on agricultural production, income, and subsistence might change the incentive and capability of the population to remain in rural areas or to migrate to urban locations. Using census micro-data in combination with high-resolution climate information, we explore the impacts of climate change on rural–urban migration in the Brazilian Northeast region. Results from a gravity model estimation reveal that the climate–migration relationship depends on the agricultural income levels of rural origin areas and the educational attainment of the rural population. Specifically, our results indicate that the intensification of climate adversities may have contributed to boosting migration from rural areas with lower socioeconomic vulnerability. In contrast, in the most deprived rural areas, harmful climate effects may have resulted in the reduction of this type of migration flow. Nevertheless, our findings suggest that education might attenuate the suppressing effects of adverse climate conditions on migration in highly vulnerable rural areas, suggesting a viable pathway to overcome mobility constraints. Our findings emphasize the complexity of climate–migration linkages and conclude that the debate on climate change and migration should no longer consider that climate change invariably results in migration, but also should investigate who is able to implement and take advantage of migration as an adaptation strategy. Policies to address issues related to climate-induced migration must focus on both facilitating migration and assisting vulnerable segments of the population who remain in place, as the less-educated rural population whose livelihoods depend on the agricultural activity.

portuguesEste artigo possui o objetivo de analisar como a implementacao das politicas de Educacao do Campo podem atuar na ampliacao das liberdades entre os jovens rurais. Analisamos as Constituicoes brasileiras e os movimentos sociais responsaveis por varias acoes implementadas por essas politicas publicas. O estudo evidenciou que e recente a atuacao Estatal no âmbito da Educacao do Campo, o que indica a negligencia do Estado no que tange ao atendimento dessa demanda social. EnglishThis paper aims to analyze how the implementation of public policies can improve freedoms amongrural youth. The methodology was based on literature review and analysis of legislation abouteducation and public policies aimed at rural youth. We analyzed the Brazilian Constitutions andthe social movements responsible for various actions implemented by public policies. The studyshowed that the State’s activity within the scope of policies for education or aimed at improvingthe living conditions of rural youth is recent, which indicates the neglect with regard to meetingthis social demand.

Background Sustainable production and consumption are two important issues, which mutually interact. Whereas individuals have little direct influence on the former, they can play a key role on the latter. This paper describes the subject matter of sustainable consumption and outlines its key features. It also describes some international initiatives in this field. Results By means of an international survey, the study explores the emphasis given to sustainable consumption during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the degree of preparedness in individuals to engage in the purchase of green and sustainably manufactured products. The main results indicate that the pandemic offered an opportunity to promote sustainable consumption; nevertheless, the pandemic alone cannot be regarded as a ‘game changer’ in this topic. Conclusions Apart from an online survey with responses from 31 countries, which makes it one of the most representative studies on the topic, a logit model was used to analyse the main variables that affect the probability of pro-environmental consumption behaviour because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper lists some of the technological and social innovations that may be needed, so as to guide more sustainable consumption patterns in a post-pandemic world.

This paper aims to analyze the economy-wide and regional effects of climate change-induced productivity decrease in Brazil. Our methodological framework was based on the General Equilibrium Analysis of the Brazilian Economy Project—PAEGDyn, a dynamic CGE model. The results show that the projected falls in agricultural productivity impose reductions in the performance of Brazilian GDP over time. Even with the use by other sectors of the economy of the factors unemployed in agriculture, there is no intersectoral compensation in economic production over time able to bring it back to the reference trajectory. In addition, the impact will be greater in warmer and poor regions, which depend on agriculture and present greater income inequality, accentuated by the free mobility of production factors within the national border. Therefore, the main implication of this study is the need to allocate scarce resources for adaptation and mitigation policies primarily for these regions, including broadly stimulating economic development with more income distribution. This will allow these regions to protect themselves by making investments in new technologies and modern infrastructure for the agricultural sector.

Resumo O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar o processo de disseminação de informações em sistemas socioecológicos. Foi construído um modelo de simulação computacional híbrido a partir das abordagens de Dinâmica de Sistemas, Modelagem Baseada em Agentes e Análise de Redes Sociais. Foi realizada análise das características e aspectos estruturais das redes sociais do Perímetro de Irrigação Gorutuba, em Minas Gerais. Os resultados indicaram que os agentes centrais se encontram em posições-chave para o fluxo de informação ou em rotas obrigatórias para sua disseminação, o que os permite filtrar, reter ou até mesmo distorcer o conhecimento. Concluiu-se que políticas que visem aperfeiçoar o fluxo de informações para elevar a resiliência de sistemas devem se basear na focalização de agentes líderes. Abstract This paper aimed to analyze the process of information dissemination in socioecological systems. System Dynamics, Agent-Based Modeling, and Social Network Analysis approaches were used for the construction of a hybrid simulation model. An analysis of the characteristics and structural aspects of social networks of the Gorutuba Irrigation Perimeter, in Minas Gerais, was performed. We observed that the most central agents are in key positions for the flow of information or on compulsory routes for their spread, thus allowing them to filter, retain, or even distort the knowledge. We conclude that policies to improve the flow of information to increase resilience should be based on targeting leading agents.

FNEGE 2, HCERES B, ABS 2; International audience; Universities are central players and important economic actors in many regions, and many of them are, in general, nationally and internationally active in respect of matters related to sustainable development. But there is a paucity of research which examines their contributions towards sustainability efforts at the local level, i.e. in the places they are situated. This paper addresses this need, by reporting on a qualitative study deploying a Matrix, which allows an analysis and reporting of regional sustainable development initiatives of a set of 22 universities in industrialised and developing countries. Recommendations to enhance their role are provided, including the importance of pursuing partnerships and joint initiatives, understanding the need of local communities, and making their know-how more widely available. The scientific value of this research is related to the understanding of how the interaction between universities and local communities happens and by shedding light to this topic, it supports universities to improve their own actions. Its implications are two-fold: it demonstrates the potential of universities as local players and outlines the range of activities they may engage with, and which may allow them to act as pillars to local sustainability initiatives.

Resumo Este artigo tem como objetivo analisar a eficiência ambiental dos municípios brasileiros e relacioná-la a um conjunto de características socioeconômicas locais, controlando aspectos como heterogeneidade tecnológica e dependência espacial. Para tanto, utilizou-se o método de Análise Envoltória de Dados (DEA) Metafrontier para construir o indicador, que foi baseado nas emissões de gases de efeito estufa. Em seguida, ajustou-se um modelo que relaciona eficiência ambiental, características socioeconômicas e dependência espacial (Spatial Autoregressive Model). Os principais resultados revelaram que renda per capita e IDH se relacionaram positivamente com o indicador de eficiência. Por outro lado, as variáveis desigualdade e educação mostraram relação negativa com o índice. Ademais, houve evidências de efeito “spillover ambiental” entre municípios, indicando que a criação de práticas sustentáveis em âmbito local pode produzir externalidades positivas regionalmente.

The vulnerability of the agriculture sector to climate change in developing countries and it’s risks to Brazilian Northeast farmers are very discussed issues on environmental agenda. In this sense, this paper put forward an understanding of the factors that drive individuals to adopt adaptive strategies to cope changing environments as a fundamental issue for the direction and effective formulation of well-targeted public policies. Mediation models were estimated considering two distinct specifications, based in two different groups of variables: (1) adoption of adaptive practices by farmers based only on the impact of climate perception, mediated by belief in the occurrence of climate change; (2) the socioeconomic conditions of the farmers and their properties were additionally included. The main results demonstrated that the Rio das Contas basin farmers’ perceptions about the negative effects of climate change, despite being the main driver, will only affect adaptation behavior when the farmers have believe in the occurrence of climate change. Socioeconomic conditions are overshadowed in predictive power of adaptation by belief on climate change. This outcome may be directly related to the farmers’ cultural aspects, nevertheless, the importance of technical assistance or rural extension services should be also emphasized as an impressive part of farmers is no longer adapted due to lack of knowledge of suitable techniques.

CNPq - Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico Outra Agência Este artigo tem como objetivo apresentar os resultados a cerca da implementação e operacionalização das políticas públicas universais voltadas para agricultura familiar no Território Rural São Mateus, Minas Gerais. Como metodologia, utilizou-se a abordagem qualitativa por meio de pesquisas bibliográficas e entrevistas semi-estruturadas como técnica de coleta de dados em campo. Constatou-se que as políticas públicas pesquisadas encontraram diversos entraves para sua implementação e pouco contribuíram para a inclusão produtiva e o desenvolvimento territorial no período avaliado, principalmente devido ao pouco diálogo existente entre agricultores, as entidades que os representam e os governos municipais. This paper aimed to present the results of research carried out by Nucleus of Extension in Territorial Development (Nedet) about implementation and operationalization of universal public policies involving family farming in São Mateus Rural Territory, Minas Gerais State. In addition, it is intended to briefly describe about territorial approach of development that originated the Rural Territories Program and the difficulties in the operationalization of universal public policies in local contexts, taking as a practical example the policies studied in that Territory. As methodology, it was used a qualitative approach through bibliographic search, and semi- structured interviews as technique of data collection in the field. Public policies found several impediments for its implementation and showed minor contribution to the productive inclusion and territorial development in the evaluated period, mainly due to the absence of participation and to the inefficient dialogue among family farmers, entities that represent them, and the municipal governments.

© 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Private universities also play a key role in the sustainability debate. But despite their importance, there a shortage of research on how sustainability is being implemented at private universities. Based on the need to address this gap, this paper investigates the nature and diversity of sustainability-based practices undertaken at private universities. It outlines the ways private universities see and perceive sustainability, and examines by means of a survey involving 10 universities from across all geographical regions which educate over 150.000 students, how these universities incorporate sustainability-related practices, as part of their operations. The results suggest that, unlike their public counterparts, about half of the respondents stated that they do not have projects undertaken to promote sustainability in local communities or in their respective regions. Also, some private universities perceive themselves as leaders in sustainability in higher education, while some are still developing a more robust sustainability profile. The conclusions of the paper are that the special features related to sustainable development teaching and research at private universities need to be better identified, in order to involve them more on sustainability efforts. Also, whereas many of them are highly engaged on improving energy efficiency, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, promote sustainable water usage and promote sustainable landscaping, there is a need for them to also engage in other areas. Finally, private universities should engage on further efforts to increase their sustainability activities, which are beneficial to them in financial terms, as well as in respect of their image and their operations.

Resumo A violência contra as mulheres implica custos diretos e indiretos ao indivíduo, à família e à sociedade, atingindo principalmente as classes de baixa renda. Diante dessa realidade, o presente estudo procurou analisar como uma política pública de transferência de renda condicionada - Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) é capaz de influenciar tal fenômeno. Os resultados encontrados apresentam evidências de que o PBF possui efeito de aumentar a violência contra a mulher. Ademais, aquelas domiciliadas no meio rural, com baixa escolaridade e com rendimentos relativamente menores aos do cônjuge são as que merecem maior atenção, uma vez que este grupo possui maior risco de sofrer violência. Como sugestão, as políticas públicas deveriam expandir a condicionalidade da saúde para a mulher por meio de ações educativas, como o acompanhamento da situação intrafamiliar, que é fornecido pela assistência social do Serviço de Proteção e Atendimento Integral à Família - PAIF. Abstract Violence against women involves direct and indirect costs to the individual, the family and society, affecting mainly the poor. Given this, the present study sought to examine how public policy of conditional cash transfers - Bolsa Família Program (BFP) is able to influence this phenomenon. The results indicate that the BFP has the effect of increasing violence against women. Thereby, those who live in rural areas with low education and lower earnings than the spouse are more likely to suffer physical abuse. It is believed that governmental agencies efforts should be directed among beneficiary that have such characteristics. A suggestion for public policy is the expansion of conditionality of health for women through educational policies such as intrafamilial monitoring of domestic situation through social assistance of Protection and Integral Care of Family Service (PICFS).

Resumo Este estudo analisa a relação entre conhecimento sobre as mudanças climáticas e adoção de estratégias adaptativas de agricultores do Nordeste (bacia hidrográfica do Rio das Contas, Bahia). Metodologicamente, foi estimado um modelo Probit Bivariado Aparentemente Não Relacionado. Os resultados evidenciaram que conhecimento e adaptação são correlacionados e devem ser pensados de forma conjunta. Agricultores que conhecem os efeitos das mudanças climáticas têm maior probabilidade de adotar medidas adaptativas. Isso reforça a importância de se considerar a percepção, o conhecimento e as condições socioeconômicas dos indivíduos na formulação de políticas públicas de combate aos efeitos das mudanças climáticas. Abstract We analyze the relationship between farmer’s knowledge about climate change and the adoption of adaptive strategies. The study area was the Brazilian Northeast (Rio das Contas basin, Bahia). Methodologically, we estimated a Seemingly Unrelated Bivariate Probit model. The results showed that knowledge and adaptation are correlated and should be considered together. Farmers who are aware of the climate change effects are more likely to adapt. This finding reinforces the importance of considering the perception, knowledge and socioeconomic conditions of individuals in the formulation of public policies to counteract the negative effects of climate change.

Over the last years, dietary environmental impact and sustainable diets have been responsible for worldwide concern, especially in developed countries. Brazil is among the world’s largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters and the country does not have any specific food consumption measures to achieve the promise made at COP21. The main objective of our paper is analyzing the contribution of the Brazilian diet in terms of carbon, water and ecological footprint. We collected data in the National Dietary Survey for food intake and life cycle assessment literature database to estimate the composition of the current diet in Brazil. We used independent t tests and ANOVA tests to understand the differences among sociodemographic and income characteristics related to Brazilian adults’ diet. The environmental impact related to the Brazilian diet is very high, with beef consumption contributing to the largest share. Male household heads, with medium and low income, aged between 18 and 45 years old, with intermediate or less education level, who lives in rural areas in Midwest and Northeast regions were associated with higher environmental impact. Therefore, measures related to demand have great potential to reduce the environmental impact in Brazil.

Secondary vegetation is the land use that has increased the most in the Brazilian Amazon in recent years. Approximately 49% of the increase in the total area since the mid-2000s was due to forest regeneration. In this context, the present study aimed to evaluate how environmental policies and economic conditions have influenced forest regeneration in the Amazon biome. This study is based on the Forest Transition theory, which is associated to a long-term phenomenon in which a decline in primary forest area is followed by forest regeneration. We used panel data procedures to estimate several models to assess sources of forest regeneration. Our results indicate that variables associated to secondary forest change are the value and intensity of fines, rural credit, agricultural share of GDP, and agricultural and extractive prices. We conclude that public policies that impose fines to combat illegal deforestation favored an increase in forest regeneration, which was an environmentally positive spillover effect as these policies may promote second forest regeneration as well as decreases in deforestation.

Brazil is one of the world’s major food-exporting countries that could be negatively impacted by climate change, and is also a leading greenhouse gas emitter through its agriculture. Crop diversification, as an agricultural practice, could lead to climate adaptation and mitigation. The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of climatic variability on categories of crop diversification so as to understand its role as an adaptive measure in response to climate change. An ordered probit model which allows for the separation of different categories of crop diversification was used for the 2006 period. The results showed that increases in temperature and precipitation did not affect each category in the same way. However, diversification intensity increases with climate variability: the greater the climate variability, the greater the likelihood of a municipality being in the very diversified category. Therefore, crop diversification appears as an adaptation strategy because it is influenced by climatic shocks. These results could be used to recommend Rural Extension programs to promote diversified systems as a resilient and cleaner type of agricultural production to improve climate risk management in Brazilian agriculture.

Resumo: Este artigo tem por objetivo expor a realidade pós-extração do minério de chumbo no município de Boquira, Bahia. Os dados foram levantados por meio de pesquisas bibliográficas e de campo, alicerçadas pela metodologia qualitativa para entrevistar atores locais. Constatou-se a insuficiência de estudos científicos e ações governamentais que comprovem ou mensurem a contaminação na região. Diante disso, torna-se necessário realizar estudos que possibilitem um diagnóstico conclusivo sobre a situação em Boquira. Abstract: This article aims to expose a reality of lead ore post-extraction in Boquira City Bahia. The data were obtained through bibliographic search and field research based on qualitative methodology to interview local actors. It was found insufficient scientific studies and governmental actions that prove or measure the contamination in the region. Therefore, it is necessary conduct studies allowing conclusive diagnosis about this situation in Boquira. Résumé: Cet article a pour but d'exposer la réalité après I'extraction du minerai de plomb dans la ville de Boquira, Bahia. Les données utilisées ont été recueillies à travers les recherches bibliographiques lesquelles nos base la méthodologie qualitative pour interviewer les acteurs locaux. II a été constaté une insuffisance dans les etudes scientifiques et dans les actions gouvernementales qui prouvent ou mesurent la contamination dans la region. Por consequent, it est nécessaire de mener des etudes pour une évaluation conclusive de la situation à Boquira. Resumo: Este artículo tiene como objetivo exponer la realidad de la post-extracción del mineral plomo en el municipio de Boquira, Bahia. Los datos fueron obtenidos mediante búsquedas bibliográficas y de campo, usando como base una metodología cualitativa para entrevistar los actores locales. Se constató la insuficiencia de estudios científicos y acciones guvernamentales que comprueben o midan la contaminación en la región. Frente a esto, es necesario realizar estudios que posibiliten un diagnóstico concluyente sobre la situación en Boquira.

Resumo: O presente artigo analisou o papel desempenhado pelos sistemas agroflorestais (SAF’s) como medida adaptativa às mudanças climáticas no Brasil. Foi desenvolvido um modelo de efeito de tratamento (Propensity Score Matching), que permitiu identificar os principais determinantes do uso de SAF’s e se municípios nos quais essa técnica é utilizada são menos vulneráveis às mudanças climáticas. Os resultados indicaram que variáveis socioeconômicas (propriedade da terra, opções de financiamento, acesso a informações e assistência técnica) e agronômicas (disponibilidade de recursos hídricos e qualidade do solo) influenciam a adoção de SAF’s nos municípios brasileiros. As condições climáticas (temperatura e precipitação) também têm participação importante no emprego desses sistemas, o que confirma seu papel de estratégia adaptativa. Conclui-se também que os SAF’s têm potencial de melhorar o desempenho agrícola brasileiro, já que o valor da terra tende a ser maior em municípios onde esses sistemas são utilizados. Desse modo, os SAF’s podem tornar o setor agropecuário menos exposto aos efeitos negativos das mudanças climáticas, tanto no presente quanto em cenários futuros. Abstract: This paper analyzes the role of agroforestry systems (AFS) as an adaptative measure to climate change in Brazil. A treatment-effects model (Propensity Score Matching) was developed. We identified the main determinants of the use of AFS and if the municipalities in which this technique is used are less vulnerable to climate change. The results showed that socioeconomic variables (land ownership, financing options, access to information and technical assistance) and agronomic variables (water resources availability and soil quality) influence the adoption of agroforestry systems in Brazilian municipalities. Climate conditions (temperature and precipitation) also play an important role in the use of these systems, which confirms their role as an adaptative strategy. It was also concluded that the AFS have the potential to improve the Brazilian agricultural performance due to the fact that the land value tends to be higher in municipalities where these systems are used. Thus, the AFS can make the agricultural sector less exposed to the negative effects of climate change in both the present and in future scenarios.

This paper analyzes the role of agroforestry systems (AFS) as an adaptative measure to climate change in Brazil. A treatment-effects model (Propensity Score Matching) was developed. We identified the main determinants of the use of AFS and if the municipalities in which this technique is used are less vulnerable to climate change. The results showed that socioeconomic variables (land ownership, financing options, access to information and technical assistance) and agronomic variables (water resources availability and soil quality) influence the adoption of agroforestry systems in Brazilian municipalities. Climate conditions (temperature and precipitation) also play an important role in the use of these systems, which confirms their role as an adaptative strategy. It was also concluded that the AFS have the potential to improve the Brazilian agricultural performance due to the fact that the land value tends to be higher in municipalities where these systems are used. Thus, the AFS can make the agricultural sector less exposed to the negative effects of climate change in both the present and in future scenarios.

This paper analyzes the potential effects of climate change on Brazilian agriculture by considering irrigation as an adaptive strategy. Investigations were performed to determine how climatic variability influences irrigation and whether this adaptive measure actually reduces producers' vulnerability to climate change. We used a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching to account for the heterogeneity in the decision of whether to use adaptive measures. We compared the expected land values under the actual and counterfactual cases of farm households that either adapt or do not adapt to climate change. Simulation results show that irrigation can be an effective tool for counteracting the harmful effects of climate change. The income of farmers tends to increase on lands where irrigation technologies are practiced. These conclusions confirm the need to invest in adaptation strategies to prepare Brazil for coping with the adverse effects of global climate change.

A orizicultura do Rio Grande do Sul é responsável por mais da metade da produção nacional, no entanto, por ser um estado tradicionalmente produtor de grãos, já está com sua fronteira agrícola esgotada, o que torna altamente competitiva a substituição de uma atividade agrícola por outra mais rentável. Nesse contexto, as políticas de garantia de preço mínimo têm a finalidade de amenizar as flutuações da renda agropecuária e assegurar o abastecimento interno de alimentos. Este artigo teve por objetivo analisar a efetividade das políticas de intervenção do governo sobre os preços pagos ao produtor de arroz. Para isso, utilizou-se o modelo de análise de intervenção. De acordo com os resultados, conclui-se que as políticas que influenciaram no preço comercializado de arroz foram os Contratos de Opção de Venda (COV), nos anos safra 2001/2002 e 2006/2007, e o Prêmio para Escoamento de Produto (PEP), no ano safra 2006/2007. As demais políticas não exerceram influência sobre os preços do arroz.

Socioeconomic and environmental characteristics in areas under Brazilian Balde Cheio Project (BCP) were evaluated. Questionnaires were applied to identify productive and socioeconomic characteristics of small farmers, and farmers’ perceptions on the implementation and operation of BCP. Soil and water samples were also taken. It seems that farmer’s perception about the BCP is associated to their socioeconomic reality; while environmental issue does not have the same relevance. According to the farmers, it was verified increase of productivity, and financial income. All farmers agree that they have not followed carefully the NGO guidelines, which is a matter of concern, because the differences among reality farms. In studied soils were observed that organic carbon levels decreased in areas under the BCP management. The NO32-, Cl- and SO42- concentrations in the waters samples were below the maximum stipulated by Brazilian environmental legislation. However, it should be highlighted that high nutrient addition and low C input in the system, can result in high losses of nutrients and also CO2 into the atmosphere.

Este estudo tem por objetivo avaliar o impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre o bem-estar relacionado à saúde no Brasil, por meio de equações estimadas para dados em painel e de projeções climáticas. Os resultados indicam que as mudanças climáticas afetam principalmente a mortalidade de crianças e mulheres. A análise procurou também incorporar aos custos de bem-estar o gasto decorrente do consumo adicional de energia para manutenção do conforto térmico e da redução de riscos à saúde. O aumento do consumo residencial anual de energia com as mudanças climáticas foi estimado em aproximadamente 6%. Os resultados sugerem que a perda de bem-estar relacionada à saúde poderá chegar a 4,7% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB). Climate change impacts on health-related welfare in Brazil :: This study aimed at assessing the health-related welfare impacts of climate change in Brazil. By analyzing a panel of Brazilian municipalities, we found that climate change affects mostly children and women mortality rates. Welfare cost estimates also incorporate additional energy-related expenditures aimed to maintain thermal comfort and to preserve individuals’ health. Adaptation to new climate conditions may increase annual residential energy consumption by around 6%. Our results suggest that health-related welfare impacts could reach 4.7% of Brazilian GDP.

Resumo Este estudo buscou verificar como as mudanças climáticas podem afetar a proliferação das leishmanioses no Brasil, em três períodos, 2010-2039, 2040-2079 e 2080-2100 e dois cenários de mudanças climáticas. Realizou-se uma estimação da relação entre temperatura, precipitação e números de internações por leishmaniose e, posteriormente, a equação estimada foi utilizada para prever o impacto da mudança climática na proliferação da doença no Brasil até o fim do século XXI. Os resultados encontrados indicam que a precipitação possui forte relação com a incidência de leishmaniose e as projeções indicam que haverá uma elevação, para o final do século, da quantidade anual de internações por essa doença, em cerca de 15%, em relação a 1992-2002 (cenário base). Em termos regionais, as projeções indicam crescimento em todas as regiões, com exceção do Centro-Oeste. No Sul do país haverá o maior crescimento relativo no número de internações anuais, ao passo que no Nordeste haverá o maior aumento absoluto. No geral, verifica-se que a leishmaniose aumentará sua incidência no país com a mudança climática. Abstract This paper sought to assess how climate change will affect the proliferation of leishmaniasis in Brazil in three time frames: 2010-2039, 2040-2079 and 2080-2100, and with two climate change scenarios. The relation of temperature, precipitation and the number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis was estimated and projections were made using these results. Results show that precipitation has a strong relation with leishmaniasis incidence and projections show that by the end of the twenty-first century there will be a 15% growth in the annual number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis in Brazil, compared to the base scenario (1992-2002). In regional terms, projections indicate growth in every region, with the exception of the Mid-West. The highest relative growth will be in the South of the country, while the highest increase in absolute terms will be observed in the Northeast region. In general, the incidence of leishmaniasis will grow in Brazil due to climate change.

A maior parte dos estudos socioeconômicos que tratam das mudançasclimáticas procura explicar qual é o custo associado a esse fenômeno, considerandoos diferentes cenários propostos para o futuro. Tratando especificamente do setoragrícola, a literatura é diversificada e apresenta resultados distintos. Essas diferençasse devem, principalmente, aos métodos alternativos de análise, às condiçõesclimáticas tomadas como base, às previsões de crescimento econômico e aos cenáriosclimáticos considerados. Neste artigo, procurou-se organizar essa literatura em duasabordagens principais. Uma delas procura entender o impacto sobre o setor agrícola,desconsiderando, ou apenas incluindo, implicitamente, as estratégias adaptativas; asegunda abordagem modela explicitamente a adaptação, analisando seu potencial demitigar os efeitos negativos das mudanças climáticas. Concluiu-se que, mesmo havendodiferenças de entendimento sobre a forma de mensurar os impactos, a maior parte dosestudos prevê que as nações em desenvolvimento serão as mais afetadas negativamentepelos efeitos das mudanças climáticas globais.

Desemprego e inatividade são fenômenos que afetam distintamente a força detrabalho conforme as várias características pessoais, familiares e demográficas. Emcomparação com as demais faixas etárias, os jovens moradores de regiões urbanas têmsido os mais atingidos. Nesse contexto, este estudo pretende verificar que fatores sãomais relevantes para explicar o desemprego e a inatividade de jovens entre 16 e 29 anosde idade no Brasil metropolitano. Foi estimado um modelo logit multinomial a partir dedados da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios – PNAD 2007, considerando astrês categorias em que o jovem poderia se encontrar: inativo, ativo e empregado e ativoe desempregado. Os resultados indicaram que a probabilidade de inatividade é maior nosjovens que estudam e ocupam a posição de cônjuge na família; já a probabilidade dedesemprego tende a diminuir à medida que aumenta a experiência dos indivíduos.

Esse trabalho teve o objetivo principal de analisar e avaliar a estrutura edinâmica de mercado do segmento exportador da avicultura brasileira, no período de1996 a 2004. A metodologia foi constituída pelos índices de concentração CRk e HHI,calculados para caracterizar a estrutura de mercado. Verificou-se também a dinâmica deposicionamento do setor (turnover). Os resultados encontrados indicam que a concentraçãodo setor é alta, razão da necessidade de grandes investimentos para atuação nomercado internacional, e que o posicionamento das empresas alterou-se, principalmentedevido às que perderam posições em relação ao ano inicial. Contudo, a concentraçãotem diminuído e há evidências de que o poder de mercado não esteja sendo utilizadopelas firmas, com vistas em diminuir o bem-estar dos consumidores.

Plant breeding through the development of seeds resistant to water stress or high temperature is an important adaptive strategy to cope climate change. In this way, by providing an analysis of adaptation to climate change using genetic breeding on Brazilian farms, this work aims to investigate how climate change will affect the adoption of genetic breeding and profitability of farmers. Temperature and rainfall projections for 2010-2099 time periods were used, considering different climate scenarios (A1B and A2), according to the 4th Assessment Report of IPCC (2007). A Treatment Effects model outlines the analytical framework in this study. Our results indicate the probability of adopting transgenic seeds will grow from 74% in the current period to 86% in 2020, 83% in 2050, and 81% in 2080. Farmers adopting this adaptation strategy will have higher profits. Land value tends to be higher in both climate scenarios in counties with cultivated areas using transgenic seeds. Farmers adopting this adaptation measure will be less exposed to adverse effects of climate change. We conclude that it is necessary to invest in adaptation strategies so that Brazil can overcome adverse effects of global climate change. O melhoramento genético representa importante estratégia adaptativa para lidar com os efeitos das mudanças climáticas, principalmente mediante o desenvolvimento de sementes resistentes à seca ou elevadas temperaturas. Dessa forma, o presente trabalho apresenta uma análise de adaptação às mudanças climáticas enfatizando a adoção do melhoramento genético em fazendas brasileiras. O objetivo do trabalho foi investigar como as mudanças climáticas irão afetar a adoção do melhoramento genético e o lucro dos produtores. Foram utilizadas projeções de temperatura e precipitação para o período entre 2010-2099, considerando dois diferentes cenários climáticos (A1B e A2), de acordo com o 4º Relatório de Avaliação do IPCC (2007). Analiticamente, estimou-se um modelo de Efeito de Tratamento. Os resultados indicam que a probabilidade de utilizar sementes transgênicas irá aumentar de 74% no cenário atual para 86% em 2020, 83% em 2050 e 81% em 2080. Os produtores que adotarem essa estratégia adaptativa apresentarão lucros maiores. Nas áreas onde o melhoramento genético é utilizado na agricultura, os valores da terra serão maiores em ambos os cenários climáticos. Os produtores adaptados estarão menos expostos às consequências negativas das mudanças climáticas. Nesse sentido, verifica-se a necessidade de investimento em estratégias de adaptação para que o Brasil possa superar os efeitos adversos das mudanças climáticas.

Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar os efeitos das mudanças climáticas sobre o setor agrícola de Minas Gerais. Metodologicamente, foi utilizado o modelo Ricardiano, que permitiu estimar como as alterações do clima, em diferentes localidades, poderão afetar o valor da terra dos produtores. As projeções de mudança climática foram baseadas nas previsões de temperatura e precipitação dos cenários A1B e A2 do Painel intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC). Em termos médios, os resultados indicaram que, em todos os períodos de simulação, o valor da terra dos produtores mineiros poderá apresentar uma pequena elevação (de, no máximo, 0,31% em relação ao período atual). Esse resultado, entretanto, não deve gerar a falsa impressão de que a agricultura de Minas Gerais não seria afetada pelas mudanças climáticas. Pelo contrário, quando se desagregam os resultados, verifica-se que aproximadamente 60% dos municípios poderão sofrer elevadas perdas, que poderão chegar a R$24 milhões já em 2020. Portanto, os formuladores de políticas devem observar atentamente as avaliações de impacto de modo a identificar as opções de adaptação mais eficazes, sendo necessário programar ações locais e descentralizadas, o que permitirá mais flexibilidade e resultados mais benéficos localmente. This paper aimed to analyze the effects of climate change on the agricultural sector of Minas Gerais. Methodologically, we used the Ricardian model, which allowed us to estimate how changes in climate, in different counties, may affect the farmers’ land values. The climate change projections were based on forecasts of temperature and precipitation (A1B and A2 scenarios) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In all simulation periods, on average, the results indicated that the land values may have a small increase. However, this result should not give the false impression that agriculture in Minas Gerais would not be adversely affected by climate change. When we consider the regional results, approximately 60% of the counties may suffer high losses, and these may reach R$24 million in 2020. Therefore, policymakers should closely observe the impact assessments in order to identify the most effective adaptation options. It will be necessary to program local and decentralized actions, allowing more flexibility and more beneficial results locally.

This paper aims to analyze the technical efficiency of the Brazilian food and beverage industry post productive restructuring, under the hypothesis that foreign firms would be more efficient than the Brazilian ones. The analytical framework for efficiency was Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Tobit model. DEA only measures the “relative” technical efficiency; that is to say that there is evidence of huge variance in technical efficiency, but we cannot conclude that the absolute level of efficiency is low. It was observed that the companies with high efficiency levels were those with the highest volume of sales. Thus, efficiency was not determined only by the nationality of the firms, since the possibility of the accomplishment of profitable businesses, mainly in association with great retail networks, could be indicated as a determinant for greater efficiency. As for the determinants of efficiency, it was observed that a proper financial administration, characterized by a good use of investments within these companies, was the main factor responsible for an improvement in performance.

The aim of this paper is to analyse the effects of climate change on irrigation adoption in Brazil. Temperature and precipitation projections for the 2010-2099 periods were employed under a number of different climate scenarios according the 4th Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results show that irrigation adoption will be affected by climate change. Given current conditions, irrigation has generally been adopted in Brazil to cope with reduced precipitation and temperature variations. The estimated irrigation probabilities in the future scenarios were quite different across Brazilian regions. The main explanation for this pattern is the distinct climatic conditions and production structures. Considering future climate change, over the next 30 years (2010 to 2039), the irrigation probability is expected to increase in all Brazilian regions. However, this trend is reversed in the long run. O principal objetivo deste estudo foi analisar os efeitos das mudanças climáticas sobre a utilização de irrigação no Brasil. Foram utilizadas projeções de temperatura e precipitação para o período de 2010 a 2099, sob diferentes cenários climáticos, conforme o 4º relatório do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas. Os resultados confirmaram que a decisão de irrigar será afetada pelas mudanças climáticas. Dadas as condições atuais, a irrigação tem sido adotada no Brasil mais como resposta à redução da precipitação do que às variações de temperatura. As probabilidades de irrigação estimadas para os cenários futuros foram bastante diferentes entre as regiões brasileiras. A principal explicação para esse padrão são as distintas condições climáticas e estruturas de produção. Considerando as mudanças climáticas, há expectativa de aumento na probabilidade de irrigação para os próximos 30 anos (2010 a 2039) em todas as regiões brasileiras. No entanto, esta tendência é invertida no longo prazo.

This paper aims to analyze the effects of climate change on Brazilian agriculture, considering irrigation adoption as an adaptation strategy. Investigation into how climatic variability influences irrigation adoption was performed, as well as tests to determine whether this adaptation measure actually reduces producers’ vulnerability to climate change. We estimate a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching to account for the heterogeneity in the decision to adapt or not, and to account for unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farm. We compare the expected land values under the actual and counterfactual cases that the farm household adapted or not to climate change. Temperature and precipitation projections for the period of 2010-2099 were used, considering different climate scenarios, according to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Simulation results showed that irrigation could can be a very effective tool for counteracting the harmful effects of climate change. Land values for irrigated production are less vulnerable than those of rainfed production. Farmers’ income tends to increase from lands where irrigation techniques are practiced, while from those where agricultural production is exclusively rainfed, losses can observed in relation to the current period. These conclusions confirm the need to invest in adaptation strategies in order to make Brazil ready to cope with the adverse effects of global climate change..

Os estudos tradicionais de integração de mercados, baseados na metodologia de co-integração, admitem que não haja descontinuidades no processo de transmissão de preços entre localidades espacialmente separadas. Todavia, a existência de custos de transação pode criar assimetrias ou mesmo impedir o processo. Dessa forma, este trabalho tem o objetivo principal de realizar um estudo de integração do mercado brasileiro de boi gordo, levando em conta esse aspecto. Utilizaram-se modelos de co-integração com threshold (TAR e M-TAR). Na análise empírica foram considerados os principais estados brasileiros produtores de boi gordo, no período de 1994 a 2008. Os resultados indicaram que os mercados são integrados, mas os custos de transação influenciam a ligação espacial entre eles, já que os choques negativos e, ou, de baixa magnitude são eliminados, de maneira distinta, que os positivos. Nesses casos, certamente os benefícios advindos de alterações nos preços seriam menores que os custos de ajuste.

This article aims to verify the relationship between the prices of the maizein the states of Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina in order to test thevalidity of the Law of One Price at those markets over the October, 2002 to March,2009 period. Monthly data were extracted from the Center of Advanced Studies forApplied Economy (CEPEA) of ESALQ / USP. The employed methods understand thetests for unitary root and Johansen´s co-integration, impulse-response function,decomposition of the variance of the forecasting error and estimate of the vector error correction model (VEC). The results showed that the Law of One Price wasnot perfectly verified for the regional maize markets analyzed, when restrictionswere imposed in the coefficient of relationship of long period. Este artigo objetiva verificar a relação entre os preços do milho nosestados do Paraná, do Rio Grande do Sul e de Santa Catarina, buscando testar se aLei do Preço Único prevaleceu nesses mercados, no período de outubro de 2002 amarço de 2009. Utilizaram-se dados mensais provenientes do Centro de EstudosAvançados em Economia Aplicada (CEPEA), da ESALQ / USP. Os métodos empregadoscompreendem os testes de raiz unitária e de cointegração de Johansen,estimação da função impulso-resposta, decomposição da variância dos erros deprevisão, estimação do modelo vetorial de correção de erro (VEC). Os resultadosmostraram que a Lei do Preço Único não foi perfeitamente verificada nos mercadosregionais de milho analisados, quando foram impostas restrições ao coeficiente de relacionamento de longo prazo.

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar os índices de preços dos bens comercializáveise não comercializáveis, considerando suas relações macroeconômicas comas políticas cambial e monetária implantadas no Brasil a partir de 1994. Buscou-seainda explicar o crescimento mais acelerado dos preços dos não comercializáveis.Analiticamente, foi utilizado o modelo de autoregressão vetorial. Os resultados indicaramque a política monetária exerceu maior impacto nos preços dos bens nãocomercializáveis e que a política cambial influenciou mais ativamente o preço doscomercializáveis. Constatou-se, também, que o crescimento mais elevado do preçodos não comercializáveis foi decorrente de forte componente inercial.