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The effects of climate change imply an increase in the risk levels due to coastal flooding. These areas present a high concentration of population and economic activity. The failure of critical infrastructures (CI) serving these communities can have significant impacts on these sectors. This study aims to analyze the risk and its future evolution due to climate change in coastal areas, considering the increased impact that the population would experience if the CI (of the energy or water and waste treatment sectors) were affected by coastal flooding. The methodology used has made it possible to analyze the risk of the Functional Urban Areas (FUA) of the European coasts, identifying the areas in which the level of risk to the population is significantly underestimated. In some of these areas and scenarios, the population affected by coastal flooding if the failure of the CI occurs would be up to 4.5 times higher than what is estimated if only their direct impact is considered.

Coral reefs provide significant coastal protection from storms but they have experienced significant losses. Here the authors show that the annual damages from flooding would double globally without reefs and they quantify where reefs provide the most protection to people and property.

Coastal development and climate change are dramatically increasing the risks of flooding, erosion, and extreme weather events. Coral reefs and other coastal ecosystems act as natural defenses against coastal hazards, but their degradation increases risk to people and property. Environmental degradation, however, has rarely been quantified as a driver of coastal risk. In Quintana Roo, Mexico, a region on the Mexican Caribbean coast with an annual tourism economy of 10 billion USD, coral reefs constitute a natural barrier against flooding from hurricanes. This study spatially quantifies the risk reduction benefits of the Mesoamerican Reef in Quintana Roo for people, buildings, and hotel infrastructure. The risk reduction benefits are substantial. For example, the reefs prevented 43% additional damage during Hurricane Dean in (2007) and provide nowadays hazard risk reduction for 4.3% of the people, 1.9% of the built capital, and 2.4% of the hotel infrastructure, per year. The annual benefits are estimated in 4,600 people, 42 million USD damage prevention for buildings, and 20.8 million USD for hotel infrastructure. The study also compares the risk reduction of coral reefs with (i) the protection offered by dunes and (ii) the increase in coastal risk from sea-level rise (SLR). The risk reduction of dunes is more critical where there are no coral reefs offshore and for small return-periods storms. Sea-level rise, however, will make the more frequent storms more impactful and will drive significant increases in annual expected damages across the region. However, we demonstrate that, in coral reef environments, the contribution of reef degradation to coastal risk is larger than the expected increase in risk from SLR. However, the spatial distribution of the risk reduction benefits from reefs differs for people and infrastructure, and in particular for hotels, which receive the most protection from reefs. Furthermore, many sections present larger benefits than the typical costs of restoration. This valuation makes a compelling case for protecting and maintaining this natural infrastructure for its risk reduction service, but also allows the development of piloting innovative strategies, such as risk finance and insurance strategies, that can align environmental and risk management goals.

Este trabajo analiza las diversas contribuciones hechas en la literatura económica que influyen en los análisis sobre vulnerabilidad frente al cambio climático. Tratamos de dotar de orden conceptual y transparencia a las contribuciones sobre la identificación de los supuestos y las limitaciones que cada escuela ha introducido en el debate académico y la aplicación práctica. Se analiza el marco conceptual que articula el debate, se revisan los enfoques teóricos desarrollados en la literatura que identifican el objeto de análisis y los conceptos básicos que constituyen el marco de cada teoría, de forma que se establecen en cada caso de estudio consecuencias para el modelo práctico. De este esquema se deriva una propuesta de clarificación para la organización de un discurso teórico. En especial, se analizan los supuestos teóricos que subyacen a cada modelo. Concluimos con algunos criterios para elegir los modelos adecuados en cada caso y una guía general para la investigación futura.

This study considers and compares several of the most important factors contributing to coastal flooding in Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) while accounting for the variations of these factors with location and time. The study assesses the populations, the land areas and the built capital exposed at present and at the middle and end of the 21st century for a set of scenarios that include both climatic and non-climatic drivers. Climatic drivers include global mean sea level, natural modes of climate variability such as El Niño, natural subsidence, and extreme sea levels resulting from the combination of projected local sea-level rise, storm surges and wave setup. Population is the only human-related driver accounted for in the future. Without adaptation, more than 4 million inhabitants will be exposed to flooding from relative sea-level rise by the end of the century, assuming the 8.5 W m-2 trajectory of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), or RCP8.5. However, the contributions from El Niño events substantially raise the threat in several Pacific-coast countries of the region and sooner than previously anticipated. At the tropical Pacific coastlines, the exposure by the mid-century for an event similar to El Niño 1998 would be comparable to that of the RCP4.5 relative sea-level rise by the end of the century. Furthermore, more than 7.5 million inhabitants, 42,600 km2 and built capital valued at 334 billion USD are currently situated at elevations below the 100-year extreme sea level. With sea levels rising and the population increasing, it is estimated that more than 9 million inhabitants will be exposed by the end of the century for either of the RCPs considered. The spatial distribution of exposure and the comparison of scenarios and timeframes can serve as a guide in future adaptation and risk reduction policies in the region.

Highlights • A multistep approach is applied in the Philippines to value protection benefits by mangroves. • Mangroves protect people and property against flooding by tropical cyclones and regular waves. • Mangroves annually reduce flooding to 613,500 people and damages to 1 billion US$/year in property. • Restoration to 1950 would bring benefits to 267,000 people and 453 mill. US$ in avoided damages. Abstract In this work we pilot a methodology to value the annual coastal protection benefits provided by mangroves in the Philippines and identify where these natural coastal defenses deliver the greatest protection. This is the first rigorous, engineering-based, nationwide evaluation of the effectiveness of mangrove habitats as natural defenses. By comparing flood damages for scenarios with and without mangroves, the study estimates the socioeconomic benefits for protecting people and property, to inform conservation and disaster risk reduction policies. Without mangroves, flooding and damages to people, property and infrastructure in the Philippines would increase annually around 25%. These habitats reduce flooding to 613,500 people/year, 23% of whom live below the poverty line. They also avert damages to 1 billion US$/year in residential and industrial property. If mangroves were restored to their 1950 distribution, there would be additional benefits to 267,000 people annually, including 61,500 people below poverty and an additional 453 mill. US$ in avoided damages. Currently, mangroves prevent more than 1.7 billion US$ in damages for extreme events (1-in-50-year). Ultimately, rigorous economic estimates of critical ecosystem services like this will help the national government to integrate the value of mangroves to people, into their national accounting systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shoreline recession due to the combined effect of waves, tides and sea level rise is increasingly becoming a major threat to beaches, one of the main assets of seaside tourist destinations. Given such an uncertain future climate and the climate-sensitive nature of many decisions that affect the long term, there is a growing need to shift current approaches towards probabilistic frameworks able to take uncertainty into account. This study contributes to climate change research by exploring the effects of erosion on the recreation value of beaches as a key indicator in the tourism sector. The new paradigm relates eroded sand to geographic and socioeconomic aspects and other physical settings, including beach type, quality and accesses, yielding monetary estimates of risk in probabilistic terms. Additionally, we look into policy implications regarding tourism management, adaptation and risk reduction. The methodology was implemented in 57 beaches in Asturias (north of Spain). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To estimate coastal risk it is necessary to integrate the joint probability density function, including extremes, of the sea condition variables over a function that defines the consequences, typically economic damage. The use of Monte Carlo methods is common practice to undertake this integration; however, it can introduce a high computational burden for use in practical applications. Hence, a simplifying assumption of full dependence between the sea condition variables is often made. This paper describes a method that overcomes this simplifying assumption through the use of two techniques. A hybrid emulator of the simulating waves nearshore model is used to increase the computational efficiency associated with the wave transformations. In addition, a computationally efficient dynamic inundation model has been incorporated to further reduce the computational burden. To demonstrate the system, it has been applied to an urban coastal area located in northern Spain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, cities have been experiencing accelerated population growth, associated with an increase in the scales of production and consumption. This fact, combined with deficient management of resources and waste, has led to the loss of biological diversity, compromising the generation of ecosystem services, with disastrous consequences for human health and well-being, but also for the economic system. In the field of civil engineering, the predominance of artificialisation and impermeabilization of cities (called "grey engineering") is being questioned to be replaced or complemented with new types of infrastructures that represent a transformative change to achieving more sustainable cities. Through system dynamics applied to the economic modelling of the city of Santander (Spain), the aim of this study is to analyse the profitability of investment in ecosystem restoration and in both green and blue infrastructure, and of the implementation of environmental policies based on the relationships of affection established in the model, which represent the interactions between the main actors in urban dynamics. As a main conclusion, it is found that investing in green infrastructures and ecosystem restoration, and environmental policies is highly profitable: EUR 1 spent can produce up to EUR 100 as a benefit.

Coral reefs can provide significant coastal protection benefits to people and property. Here we show that the annual expected damages from flooding would double, and costs from frequent storms would triple without reefs. For 100-year storm events, flood damages would increase by 91% to $US 272 billion without reefs. The countries with the most to gain from reef management are Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Mexico, and Cuba; annual expected flood savings exceed $400 M for each of these nations. Sea-level rise will increase flood risk, but substantial impacts could happen from reef loss alone without better near-term management. We provide a global, process-based valuation of an ecosystem service across an entire marine biome at (sub)national levels. These spatially explicit benefits inform critical risk and environmental management decisions, and the expected benefits can be directly considered by governments (e.g., national accounts, recovery plans) and businesses (e.g., insurance).

This study considers and compares several of the most important factors contributing to coastal flooding in Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) while accounting for the variations of these factors with location and time. The study assesses the populations, the land areas and the built capital exposed at present and at the middle and end of the 21st century for a set of scenarios that include both climatic and non-climatic drivers. Climatic drivers include global mean sea level, natural modes of climate variability such as El Niño, natural subsidence, and extreme sea levels resulting from the combination of projected local sea-level rise, storm surges and wave setup. Population is the only human-related driver accounted for in the future. Without adaptation, more than 4 million inhabitants will be exposed to flooding from relative sea-level rise by the end of the century, assuming the 8.5 W m-2 trajectory of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), or RCP8.5. However, the contributions from El Niño events substantially raise the threat in several Pacific-coast countries of the region and sooner than previously anticipated. At the tropical Pacific coastlines, the exposure by the mid-century for an event similar to El Niño 1998 would be comparable to that of the RCP4.5 relative sea-level rise by the end of the century. Furthermore, more than 7.5 million inhabitants, 42,600 km2 and built capital valued at 334 billion USD are currently situated at elevations below the 100-year extreme sea level. With sea levels rising and the population increasing, it is estimated that more than 9 million inhabitants will be exposed by the end of the century for either of the RCPs considered. The spatial distribution of exposure and the comparison of scenarios and timeframes can serve as a guide in future adaptation and risk reduction policies in the region.