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The recent spread of Euroscepticism has largely been limited to criticism of the actions, inefficiencies, or credibility of EU institutions, while the issue of leaving or not joining the EU is still out of focus for the vast majority of the European population. With the exception of the United Kingdom, which withdrew from the EU, Serbia is the only country where the majority of the population does not want to join the bloc. This paper is dedicated to researching the causes of this phenomenon and measuring their impact on the current additional increase in resistance to the EU among the population of Serbia. This paper presents the results of a survey organised by the authors in Serbia in 2020. MANOVA and the Generalised Linear Model (GLM) were used to analyse the impact of different demographic and socio-economic characteristics, as well as the influence of the national attachment of respondents to their attitude towards EU membership. The results showed that Euroscepticism was on the rise due to a weakening expectation of economic benefits of EU membership and a strengthening of national attachment, including concerns over the loss of national sovereignty, under increased EU pressure on Serbia to give up disputed Kosovo territories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Far-right politics has gained significant support across Europe in recent decades. Previous literature has investigated the conditions that lead to immigrants being perceived as "threats", leading to increased support for anti-immigrant parties. However, how certain "shock events" – times of dramatic change – mobilize far-right support around anti-immigrant sentiment has been understudied. Drawing on social movement literature, I examine how support for anti-immigrant politics was driven by demographic change during the "refugee crisis" in Sweden. I use a unique dataset on Swedish municipalities (N = 290) between 2014 and 2018 to examine the relationship between immigration and far-right outcomes. I show that increases in Syrian immigrants during the "refugee crisis" led to significant gains in support for anti-immigrant politics at the municipal level. I suggest that the "refugee crisis" constituted a politicized ethno-racial shock that lead to increases in far-right support, as political actors seized on increased immigration to mobilize around threat perceptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Partisan gerrymandering is a practice as old as the nation itself and a problem both state and federal courts continue to struggle with. In 2015, the people of Ohio overwhelmingly voted to amend the state constitution to prevent overly partisan outcomes in state legislative redistricting. Following the 2021 redistricting cycle, the Ohio Supreme Court narrowly struck down several redistricting proposals in what devolved into a protracted fight with legislators and executive officials. This Note carefully lays out the development of redistricting jurisprudence, Ohio's relevant constitutional provisions, and various state and federal judicial approaches to alleged gerrymanders. Using a combination of these judicial approaches, this Note makes two suggestions for how the Ohio Supreme Court can better adjudicate future partisan gerrymanders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the current discourse, attitudes, and policies surrounding human mobility. It highlights three areas of change that make him optimistic about the emergence of a more inclusive and equitable governance of mobility in the future, namely advances in norms related to human mobility, changes in the system of global governance, and demographic and technological changes. It also looks at key changes in the past and factors that may impact mobility regimes in 2100.

This study asks: What drives divergent reactions to demographic transformation? This question has grown in salience as the politics of the United States and Western Europe react to the prospect of becoming Majority Minority states — where the native constituency of people, defined by race, ethnicity, and/or religion, loses its numerical advantage in the territory of a sovereign state. Relatively little is known about how societies govern such demographic change in the course of global history such that we may anticipate and contextualise policy responses today. To address this question, I undertake a comparative historical analysis of six Majority Minority states — Bahrain (1920–2010), the Hawaiian Kingdom (1840–1900), Mauritius (1830–1880), historic New York State (1830–1880), Singapore (1850–1970), and Trinidad and Tobago (1840–2010). Earlier historical work and contemporary attitudinal analyses have focused on the ways that popular discontent, racism, and xenophobia drive responses. However, I find that that divergent political outcomes are subject to national institutions — specficially, whether the state equally enfranchises the newcomer population and whether the government's subsequent redefinition of the national identity is inclusive or exclusive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research is devoted to the specifics of the influence of demographic processes in the muslim community of Russia on political aspects. The study of the data obtained made it possible to determine the specific aspects of the impact of demographic processes on muslim community and to describe the socio-political mean of these processes for russian society. The results obtained are consistent with the conclusions of a number of researchers, expand the existing understanding of the nature of demographic processes among muslims, and determine the specific results of their impact on russian society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the application of the one-child policy in 1979, to the already announced possible disappearance of any mention of a maximum number of children in March 2020, Chinese leaders have been adapting the natality of the Chinese population to the country's supposed demographic needs. This article analyses the impact of the one-child policy on the decline in fertility in China, as well as other consequences usually attributed to it: the decline in population growth, accelerated ageing, the increase in the imbalance in the sex ratio and the imbalance in the marriage market. What might have happened if the one-child policy had not been carried out is also examined. Lastly, the article assesses the possible consequences on the current demographic situation in China in the likely case of the end of any limit on the maximum number of children per couple. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What drives individuals toward a career in politics? Prior research on political ambition has often focused on socio-demographic variables while generally ignoring the importance of individual personality differences. Yet personality consistently predicts political knowledge, interest and participation, suggesting that individual differences may matter in addition to resources and the social environment. To this end, we assess the impact of both the HEXACO and Dark Triad models of personality in predicting nascent political ambition (that is, the initial desire to run for elected office) while controlling for well-established socio-demographic variables (for example, gender, income). Overall, we find considerable support for the predictive power of personality, especially the traits of honesty-humility, extraversion and narcissism. These results have important implications for understanding the kinds of people who are interested in a political career. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Teorija in Praksa is the property of Teorija in Praksa and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

How do migration and immigration shape the political geography of American cities? In this article, we propose a mechanism of partisan sorting and demographic change which is tested using the mass migration of African Americans from New Orleans to Houston, Texas in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. We argue that differences in residential choice preferences among partisans combined with demographic changes which increase diversity can induce sorting by triggering flight (migration) among ideological conservatives. Using Hurricane Katrina evacuee data from schools in Harris Country along with a variety of empirical tools, we find evidence suggesting that African American Hurricane Katrina migration led to Republican flight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of migration has been the subject of extensive debates throughout Europe. Migration patterns are constantly changing in our current globalized economy; therefore, it is insufficient to assume that countries sharing cultural, geographical, and linguistic similarities experience synchronised migration flows. This article attempts to contribute to the understanding of one of the most dominant migration streams from Eastern Europe, specifically the movement from Ukraine to the Czech Republic and Poland. The period of interest follows the accession of the destination countries into the EU between 2004 and 2014. The results show that Ukraine suffers from much worse economic and social conditions than Poland and the Czech Republic. GDP growth, unemployment, and the poverty rate are three important indicators that explain why there has been such a large influx of Ukrainians into the host countries. While educational attainment was also massively deficient in Ukraine, it appears this is a reflection of the institutional failure of the Ukrainian education system, thus leading to the education–occupation mismatch of Ukrainian migrant workers. Despite the fact that Poland and the Czech Republic are linguistically, culturally, and geographically close, the immigration flow from Ukraine has behaved very differently in each case; for instance, the most notable contrast reveals that migration to the Czech Republic, but not to Poland, was substantially affected by economic crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of demographic factors on the adoption of e-government services. Specifically, this article sought to examine the extent to which demographic factors such as age, gender and education would influence the willingness to adopt and use e-government services. The data capture and analysis was done with SPSS. The results indicate that age as a demographic factor was significant in determining the willingness of citizens to use e-government services. The results, however, showed that gender and education as demographic factors were not positively significant in predicting the willingness to use e-government services. The implications of these findings on the adoption and implementation of e-government are further discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1968, the Soviet economist and demographer Boris Urlanis started a national conversation in the Soviet Union with his article "Beregite muzhchin!" or "Save the Men!" in the popular journal Literaturnaia gazeta. The essay, translated here, points out the increasingly troubling imbalance in male and female health as men were dying, on average, eight years earlier than women. Urlanis calls for attention to accidents and lifestyle problems (smoking and drinking, as featured in propaganda posters) as well as a nationwide set of health institutions centered on male health. The essay precipitated a flood of essays, letters, commentaries, cartoons, and even a movie under the same title. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we examine how Finnish municipalities’ expenditures depend on the demographic structure of the population. More precisely, we scrutinize the role of foreign citizens: how does the share of citizens with foreign background out of the total population manifest itself in total expenditures and some key expenditure categories. The study makes use of Finnish panel data from 249 municipalities for the period 2000–2014. Empirical analyses show that foreign population tends to increase per capita expenditures up to the point where the respective semi-elasticity is about one. The result seems robust in terms of different control variables, subsamples of the data and different estimation techniques. Also, it is found that the unemployment rate of foreign citizens tends to increase municipalities’ expenditures. Thus, opposite to standard assumptions, per capita public consumption expenditures do depend on migration and that should be taken into account when making assessments on overall fiscal effects of migration. From political economy point of view, these results seem to be at variance with the “non-willingness to pay other ethnic groups’ expenditures” hypothesis that has been put forward by e. g. Alberto Alesina and Assaf Razin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the influence of government ideology on economic policy-making in the United States. I review studies using data for the national, state and local levels and elaborate on checks and balances, especially divided government, measurement of government ideology and empirical strategies to identify causal effects. Many studies conclude that parties do matter in the United States. Democratic presidents generate, for example, higher rates of economic growth than Republican presidents, but these studies using data for the national level do not identify causal effects. Ideology-induced policies are prevalent at the state level: Democratic governors implement somewhat more expansionary and liberal policies than Republican governors. At the local level, government ideology hardly influences economic policy-making at all. How growing political polarization and demographic change will influence the effects of government ideology on economic policy-making will be an important issue for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demographic changes from decades of mass immigration and shifts in internal migration patterns are upending the traditional racial composition of many states throughout the United States, transforming the American electorate, and increasing both the political salience of immigration and the racial salience of Latinos. Politicizing these visible demographic shifts has become an increasingly common strategy by both Democrats and Republicans with potentially significant electoral effects. While many have examined the impact of these demographic changes on dominant receiving populations' attitudes, few have examined how changing demographics are shaping immigration politics in electoral campaigns. Specifically, under what conditions do political candidates politicize demographic change? I hypothesize that both political and demographic considerations drive variation in immigration appeals. I test my hypotheses using a novel dataset of candidate campaign websites from 2010, 2012, and 2014 US Senate primary and general elections. I argue that racial party cleavages increase the electoral temptation of immigration appeals but it is the interaction between state-level Latino population growth, electoral competition, and Latino voters that determines campaign strategy more broadly and moderates the use of pro- and anti-immigrant appeals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information about Government of Florida. Topics discussed include table of content such as population, political party registration; mention information about Florida state government with demographic statics of the country; and talks about history of the country, which includes inhabit of native Americans in peninsula as early as 14,000 years ago.

What are the political implications of domestic migration to the American South? Using the American National Election Studies, we track the changing dynamic of party identification and presidential voting among white southern in-migrants and natives. Although it was once thought southern in-migration from the rest of the country contributed to Republican ascendancy in the region, we find that is no longer true. In the 1970s and 1980s, white migrants to the South were more Republican than natives. Today, white southern in-migrants are more likely to affiliate with the Democratic Party and vote Democratic, suggesting population change could ultimately shift the partisan balance in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With continuing immigration to Western countries, an important question concerns how these demographic changes impact natives' propensity to vote. In particular, the literature debates whether exposure to ethnic others in local contexts generates conflict that mobilizes individuals to vote (mobilization theory), diminishes social cohesion that in turn makes voters likely to withdraw from voting (marginalization theory), or does not impact turnout at all. This study is one of the first to investigate the question using individual-level longitudinal data, which adds substantially to the causal leverage of the analysis. In particular, we use a panel dataset with validated turnout data for 1.9 million Danish voters combined with detailed data regarding the ethnic composition of individuals' proximate residential neighborhood. The results suggest that increasing shares of immigrants does not affect natives' propensity to vote to any substantive extent, irrespective of how the size of the neighborhood is specified. This finding cannot be ascribed to lack of statistical power. Hereby, the study provides an important contribution to the existing knowledge regarding the democratic consequences of continuing immigration and increasing ethnic diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focusing on Texas's seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, and identifies the demographic change in Texas impacting the Voting Rights Act (VRT). It mentions about the importance of Bartlett v. Strickland U.S. Supreme court concerning Texas's Demographic Change and VRT, and whether Section 2 applies to minority-coalition districts, in which two or more minority groups form a majority of the district's voting-age population.

An emerging body of research notes the importance of church-based social support networks in the daily lives of Americans. However, few studies examine church-based support, and especially among ethnic subgroups within the U.S. Black population, such as Caribbean Blacks. This study uses data from the National Survey of American Life to examine demographic and religious participation (e.g., attendance, interaction) correlates of church-based social support (e.g., receipt of emotional support, receipt of general support, provision of support to others, and negative interaction) among Caribbean Blacks residing in the U.S. Multiple regression analyses indicated that religious participation was associated with all four dependent variables. Church attendance was positively associated with receiving emotional support, general social support, and providing support to others, but was not associated with negative interaction. Frequency of interaction with fellow congregants was positively associated with receiving emotional support, receiving general support, providing support to others and negative interaction. Demographic findings indicated that women provided more support to church members and experienced more negative interactions with members than did men. Education was positively associated with frequency of support; household income was negatively associated with receiving emotional support and providing social support to others. Findings are discussed in relation to the role of church-based support networks in the lives of Caribbean Black immigrants and communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that contemporary differences in political attitudes across counties in the American South in part trace their origins to slavery's prevalence more than 150 years ago. Whites who currently live in Southern counties that had high shares of slaves in 1860 are more likely to identify as a Republican, oppose affirmative action, and express racial resentment and colder feelings toward blacks. We show that these results cannot be explained by existing theories, including the theory of contemporary racial threat. To explain the results, we offer evidence for a new theory involving the historical persistence of political attitudes. Following the Civil War, Southern whites faced political and economic incentives to reinforce existing racist norms and institutions to maintain control over the newly freed African American population. This amplified local differences in racially conservative political attitudes, which in turn have been passed down locally across generations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A good deal of scholarship examines the effects of prejudice against blacks on public opinion and vote choice in the United States. Despite producing valuable insights, this research largely ignores the attitudes of Latinos--a critical omission, since Latinos constitute a rapidly growing share of the population. Using two nationally representative survey data sets, we find that the level of racial prejudice is comparable for Latinos and non-Hispanic whites. Equally comparable are associations between prejudice and political preferences: policy opinion and support for Obama in the 2008 presidential election. Our findings suggest that despite demographic changes, efforts to enact policies intended to assist blacks and elect black candidates will continue to be undermined by prejudice. That said, Latinos are more likely than non-Hispanic whites to support policies intended to assist blacks, because Latinos are more Democratic than non-Hispanic whites, more egalitarian, and less committed to the value of limited government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an era of widespread party membership decline, there is debate over the utility, within the ‘European’ tradition, of conceptualising party membership as the locus of individual party engagement, and of maintaining membership and supportership as distinct categories in analysing party activism. This debate is particularly relevant to Green parties, which, through their particular social movement origins and emphasis on grass-roots democracy, bring into question the assumption that the activities and profile of members and supporters are functionally different. Using original data gathered from two surveys of Australian Greens party members and supporters undertaken in 2012 and 2013, the political activity, associational membership, ideological position, and demographic characteristics of these two groups are compared. While active party members are distinctive in their party-specific political activities and their ideological positioning, there is much less difference between the rest of the formal party membership and the party’s active supporter base. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

All Commonwealth, state and territory judges in Australia are subject to mandatory retirement ages. While the 1977 referendum, which introduced judicial retirement ages for the Australian federal judiciary, commanded broad public support, this article argues that the aims of judicial retirement ages are no longer valid in a modern society. Judicial retirement ages may be causing undue expense to the public purse and depriving the judiciary of skilled adjudicators. They are also contrary to contemporary notions of age equality. Therefore, demographic change warrants a reconsideration of s 72 of the Constitution and other statutes setting judicial retirement ages. This article sets out three alternatives to the current system of judicial retirement ages. It concludes that the best option is to remove age-based limitations on judicial tenure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper critically reviews postwar population development in Japan and aims to identify unsolved issues, which are possibly shared by other countries, and extract lessons for the future. First, I examine long-term development on fertility and life expectancy in Japan with a brief introduction of pre-war population history. I stress that some critical issues have often been ignored in policy debates and some important new challenges are now emerging, factors that are indispensable to extract lessons for the future. Second, I turn to the official population projections and related issues which again require scrutiny. Third, I emphasize that serious scientific investigation from multiple disciplines is essential to cope with the challenges of demographic changes and that Japan should take the leading role in research for the next generations all over the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background/Context: Mayoral control of large city school districts has become the newest form of school district reorganization. Researchers have documented how real and perceived crises have propelled mayors in Chicago, Baltimore, and Washington DC, amongst others, to redefine the role of board governance by situating the operations of districts within mayoral governance portfolios. There is little research examining the role of suburban mayors in suburban school district secession movements. Demographic changes as well as tensions around funding and programs have prompted splits in suburban school districts within metropolitan regions that warrant study. Purpose: This article examines the educational, demographic, and political dynamics that fueled the contest between suburban city mayors and school district leadership leading to the secession and fragmentation of the largest suburban school district in Utah. The authors sought to understand how this mayoral led secession activity interfaced with mayoral control activities in big cities. We also aimed to identify the parallels and departures that existed in the sources of tension in this case of suburban school district division and historic patterns of suburban political fragmentation, particularly, suburban cities' creation of autonomous jurisdictions separating them legally and institutionally from urban school districts as a means of assuring clear racial divisions. Population/Participants: The research participants included four mayors, two assistant mayors, four school district transition team members, six teachers as well as txuo school district administrators. Six focus groups comprised of four to six parents also participated. Research Design This study employed qualitative research methods as well as descriptive statistical data analysis. The researchers interviewed mayors as well as parent and community focus groups. Newspaper media pertaining to the events were collected and analyzed as triangulating data. The researchers also analyzed census data using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) software. Findings/Results: The authors found that rapid demographic and financial shifts in school districts shared by multiple suburban cities can catalyze mayors to organize and act aggressively to split existing school districts. Strong city mayors were a key force propelling the modification of district governance structures through heightening the prominence of city borders and local control, even when the threats were neighboring middle-class cities composed of white residents. Mayors moved the region's political and educational dynamics one step closer to a mayoral control governance structure. The political, demographic, and economic relationships underlying these scenarios positioned suburban school district administration with few options in which to respond. Conclusions/Recommendations: The authors conclude that these practices of division and appropriation by cities and their leadership will only diminish democratic processes of school governance and exacerbate social-class and racial segregation across suburban school districts over time. The authors recommend that regionally based governance bodies be formed that help maintain a regional perspective to educational policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses politics and a racial divide in America, and it mentions what the author refers to as white voter backlash against the nation's first black President Barack Obama. Demographic change in the U.S. is addressed, along with the concept of white privilege in the country and the growth of America's non-white population. Voting rights protections in the U.S. are examined, along with a decrease in the nation's white population. Race-related conduct (racialism) is assessed.

The article discusses the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York's ruling in the 2014 case Favors v. Cuomo which deals with U.S. voting laws, population deviation, and the court's rejection of a challenge to the New York State Senate's redistricting plan based on the Equal Protection Clause which is contained in the Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Political gerrymandering, proposed legislation, and American constitutional laws are also examined.

This article examines the influences on the 2014 midterm congressional elections. The election was a decisive victory for the Republican Party. Republicans picked up nine Senate seats and with them control of the Senate. They also gained thirteen House seats, extending their House majority to its largest size in over 80 years. Although Republican seat gains can be explained at one level by the normal processes of surge and decline plus the midterm as a referendum on the performance of the presidential party, this does not explain why the midterm referendum was so lopsidedly against the Democrats that it created a Republican wave in the election. This analysis traces the reasons for the Democrats' 'shellacking' to the 2012 presidential election. The reason for President Obama's reelection in 2012 has been misinterpreted as an ideological triumph or as a positive referendum on the president's job performance. Neither was the case. As a first party-term incumbent, President Obama was given additional time to revive the weak economy that he inherited from President Bush. The 2012 referendum on the president's performance was a suspended referendum, not a vote of confidence. The analysis shows that the economy was weak by historical standards in 2012 and remained so in 2014 and that voters realized that the economy was weak in 2012 and continued to believe so in 2014. The crucial political difference was that voters blamed former President Bush in 2012, but held the Democrats responsible in 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Partisan success in House districts is significantly influenced by the composition of districts and the resulting partisan voting inclinations. Districts that are largely White and have lower population density vote Republican and those that are highly urban and dominated by non-Whites vote Democratic. That continued to play out in 2014. Although the 2014 House elections produced the highest number of Republican seats since 1928, the changes from 2012 to 2014 look less dramatic when assessed by district composition and partisan voting tendencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Gulf regional strategic environment indicates that the balance of power is moving towards an inward concentration for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states while Iran attempts to fill the strategic vacuum created by the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. This work explores Saudi national security from different perspectives and addresses the impact of population growth, new media and societal harmony in relation to it. Challenges magnified by the so-called "Arab Spring" will also be discussed. Additionally, this work analyses a particular societal phenomena that could influence the strategic vacuum, which is caused by the absence of regulation in certain societal situations and, as the result of a gap, or emptiness, in public spaces. I argue that Saudi Arabia needs to develop a security doctrine combining both internal and external dimensions. This work does so by demonstrating that there are two "wheels:" 1. the wheel of change (i.e. demographical societal, regional with national impacts) and 2. the wheel of adaptation (i.e. the effort of the government). The wheel of change moves faster than the wheel of adaption, illustrating the need to implement regulatory measures. Hence, internal and external "security circles" (national, regional and global) need to be synchronised into a single plan of action and security efforts will have to combine development both internally as well as externally. This work also studies a variety of Saudi government initiatives implemented to deal with the multi-dimensional changes noted above. Finally, this work asks whether it is possible to change the speed of interaction between the regional balance of power domestic socio-political realities in Saudi Arabia? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Immigration is profoundly changing the racial demographics of America. In this article, we seek to understand if and how immigration and increasing racial diversity are shaping the partisan politics of individual white Americans. We show that whites' views on immigration and Latinos are strongly related to their core political identities and vote choices. Using a range of different surveys, we find that, all else equal, whites with more anti-immigrant views or more negative views of Latinos are less apt to identify as Democrats and less likely to favor Democratic candidates. This rightward shift harkens back to an earlier period of white defection from the Democratic Party and highlights the enduring but shifting impact of race on American politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Foreign Policy Journal (CFPJ) is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Historische Zeitschrift is the property of De Gruyter and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

It is often forgotten that, regardless of time or place, periods of high immigration are almost always periods of high anti-immigration sentiment. When ethnic change is rapid, driven by immigration or differences in ethnic natural increase, the ethnic majority often responds with a politics of immigration. This was true, for instance, in Britain in the 1960s, in the US during 1890-1925 and in interwar Scotland. I show that White British people in locales experiencing rapid ethnic change are more likely to call for lower immigration and to vote BNP. On the other hand, where there is already a high level of ethnic minorities, white opinion is less hostile to immigration: UKIP does poorly among whites in diverse areas. Habituation to change, typically within a decade, and assimilation-especially of Europeans-over a generation reduces hostility to immigration. If the rate of ethnic change slows, we should therefore expect a reduction in the salience of immigration. Ironically, because the children of European migrants are more readily accepted into the ethnic majority than is the case for non-Europeans, a shift from EU free movement to non-European skilled migrants, as is advocated by UKIP, could run counter to the wishes of its own supporters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing underrepresentation of racial and ethnic minorities in most levels of office continues to warrant our attention. However, scholars have only focused on what factors contribute to the electoral success of minorities, without attention to a vital precursor--the supply of minority candidates. Using data from the Local Elections in America Project, this study provides one of the first glimpses into the supply side of minority representation, detailing how demographic, electoral, and political factors affect the likelihood a black candidate is on the ballot, and the subsequent impact on the likelihood of a black candidate winning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]