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Anthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) is projected to continue in the future. However, the influence of forest management on forest productivity change and subsequent LULCC projections remains under‐investigated. This study explored the impacts of forest management‐induced change in forest productivity on LULCC throughout the 21st century. Specifically, we developed a framework to softly couple the Global Change Analysis Model and Global Timber Model to consider forest management‐induced forest productivity change and projected future LULCC across the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We found future increases in forest management intensity overall drive the increase of forest productivity. The forest management‐induced forest productivity change shows diverse responses across all SSPs, with a global increase from 2015 to 2100 ranging from 3.9% (SSP3) to 8.8% (SSP1). This further leads to an overall decrease in the total area with a change of land use types, with the largest decrease under SSP1 (−7.5%) and the smallest decrease under SSP3 (−0.7%) in 2100. Among land use types, considering forest management‐induced change significantly reduces the expansion of managed forest and also reduces the loss of natural land in 2100 across SSPs. This suggests that ignoring forest management‐induced forest productivity change underestimates the efficiency of wood production, overestimates the managed forest expansion required to meet the future demand, and consequently, potentially introduces uncertainties into relevant analyses, for example, carbon cycle and biodiversity. Thus, we advocate to better account for the impacts of forest management in future LULCC projections. Plain Language Summary: Land use and land cover change has shown widespread social, economic, and environmental impacts. However, the influence of forest management on forest productivity change and subsequent land use and land cover change projections remains under‐investigated. This study explored how changes in forest productivity caused by forest management practices impact land use and land cover throughout the 21st century under various social and economic scenarios. The results show that more intense forest management generally leads to more productive forests. This, in turn, results in smaller changes in land use and land cover. Increasing forest management reduces the need to expand managed forests and helps preserve natural lands by 2100. Ignoring the impact of forest management on forest productivity could lead to biases in projecting forest expansion and wood production and potentially induce uncertainties in carbon cycling and biodiversity. Our results emphasize the need to account for forest management in future projections of land use and land cover changes. Key Points: Forest management‐induced productivity change has a significant impact on future land use and land cover change (LULCC)Neglecting such impact could overestimate the managed forest expansion and natural land reduction, especially under SSP1 and SSP5We advocate considering such impacts during LULCC projection to constrain the uncertainty [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much land has been cleared of indigenous forest for pastoral agriculture worldwide. In New Zealand, the clearance of indigenous forest on hill country has resulted in high food production, but waterways have become turbid, with high nutrient and E. coli concentrations. A range of on-farm mitigations are available, but it is unclear how they should be applied catchment-wide. We have developed a catchment-scale model that integrates economics with ecosystem services to find a better balance between agriculture and nature. In the upper Wairua catchment, Northland, if three actions are prioritised—(1) keeping stock out of streams, (2) constructing flood retention bunds in first-order catchments, and (3) planting trees on highly erodible land—then sediment loads, E. coli levels, and flooding are significantly reduced. Implementing these actions would cost approximately 10% of catchment net revenue, so it is feasible with a combination of regulation and subsidy. Many catchments in New Zealand are primarily pastoral agriculture, as in other countries (in North and South America, Australasia, and the United Kingdom), and would benefit from the analysis presented here to guide development along sustainable pathways. While pastoral agriculture typically stresses waterways, with increased sedimentation and freshwater contaminants, much can be done to mitigate these effects with improved farm and riparian management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maine faces a period of socio-economic transition as it contends with a shift in natural resource utilization. From the declining contribution of natural resource industries to the rise of conservation lands, the state's relationship with its natural capital is increasingly influenced by a multitude of factors. Meanwhile, Maine's rural communities may struggle to adapt. In order to gain better insight, a statewide web-based survey was used to collect data on perceptions of community resilience, natural resource industries, and conservation. Analysis revealed divergences largely based on demographic characteristics. Politically conservative respondents expressed a belief that their communities are resilient but are concerned that conservation lands reduce economic productivity. Rural residents tend to believe natural resource industries remain important but do not perceive their communities to be economically diverse. Respondents in urban areas instead perceive a lack of social cohesion and trustworthiness of local elected leadership. Communities across the state contend with a diverse array of vulnerabilities for which no single resilience building solution will suffice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the effects of supplying forest biomass on forest ecosystem services and goods with a dynamic systems model. This unique analysis models dynamic trade and investments in forestry, thereby capturing price changes from increased forest biomass demand on current and future flows of forest ecosystem services and natural capital stocks. Forests across the globe are interconnected through timber and forest biomass markets, which influence forest management decisions, land rents, and policy responses. Results indicate that expanding forest biomass consumption, even at relatively low levels, will have important impacts on ecosystem services, particularly the benefits of terrestrial carbon sequestration and timber outputs. Increased forest biomass production can be achieved with smaller impacts on ecosystem services through policies targeting natural forest preservation. However, policies that encourage residual biomass use for energy or discourage forest plantation expansion could potentially compromise carbon benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]