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The invasive grass cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) presents major challenges for land management and habitat conservation in the western United States. Feral horses (Equus ferus caballus) have become overabundant in some areas of the West and can impact fragile semiarid ecosystems. Amid ongoing efforts to control cheatgrass in the Great Basin, we conducted a study to determine if feral horses contribute to the spread of cheatgrass through distribution via their feces. We collected feral horse fecal samples from Little Book Cliffs Herd Management Area in western Colorado in 2014. Fecal samples were dried, and 20 from each of 3 collection sessions were cultivated to examine germination success. Six species germinated from 18 samples (30%; mostly one plant per sample where germination occurred), including cheatgrass from 8% of samples. In a separate study we examined the diet of this same horse population using fecal plant DNA barcoding. Plant species that germinated were rare in the diet and germinated from fewer samples than expected relative to their detection in the diet. Our results suggest that feral horses could be contributing to cheatgrass propagation. Native ungulates and domestic cattle also have this potential. Although management of all large ungulates is necessary to mitigate cheatgrass spread, control of feral horse numbers is particularly necessary.

Evaluating the conditions where a species can persist is an important question in ecology both to understand tolerances of organisms and to predict distributions across landscapes. Presence data combined with background or pseudo-absence locations are commonly used with species distribution modeling to develop these relationships. However, there is not a standard method to generate background or pseudo-absence locations, and method choice affects model outcomes. We evaluated combinations of both model algorithms (simple and complex generalized linear models, multivariate adaptive regression splines, Maxent, boosted regression trees, and random forest) and background methods (random, minimum convex polygon, and continuous and binary kernel density estimator (KDE)) to assess the sensitivity of model outcomes to choices made. We evaluated six questions related to model results, including five beyond the common comparison of model accuracy assessment metrics (biological interpretability of response curves, cross-validation robustness, independent data accuracy and robustness, and prediction consistency). For our case study with cheatgrass in the western US, random forest was least sensitive to background choice and the binary KDE method was least sensitive to model algorithm choice. While this outcome may not hold for other locations or species, the methods we used can be implemented to help determine appropriate methodologies for particular research questions.

Using localized studies to understand how ecosystems recover can create uncertainty in recovery predictions across landscapes. Large archives of remote sensing data offer opportunities for quantifying the spatial and temporal factors influencing recovery at broad scales and predicting recovery. For example, energy production is a widespread and expanding land use among many semi-arid ecosystems of the Western United States dominated by sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), a keystone species providing a variety of ecological services. With remotely-sensed (Landsat) estimates of vegetation cover collected every 2–5 years from southwestern Wyoming, USA, over nearly three decades (1985–2015), we modeled changes in sagebrush cover on 375 former oil and gas well pads in response to weather and site-level conditions. We then used modeled relationships to predict recovery time across the landscape as an indicator of resilience for vegetation after well pad disturbances, where faster recovery indicates a greater capacity to recover when similarly disturbed. We found the rate of change in sagebrush cover generally increased with moisture and temperature, particularly at higher elevations. Rate of change in sagebrush cover also increased and decreased with greater percent sand and larger well pads, respectively. We predicted 21% of the landscape would recover to pre-disturbance conditions within 60 years, whereas other areas may require >100 years for recovery. These predictions and maps could inform future restoration efforts as they reflect resilience. This approach also is applicable to other disturbance types (e.g., fires and vegetation removal treatments) across landscapes, which can further improve conservation efforts by characterizing past conditions and monitoring trends in subsequent years.

Although human influence across rural landscapes is often discussed, interactions between the native, natural systems and human activities are challenging to measure explicitly. We assessed the distribution of introduced, invasive species as related to anthropogenic infrastructure and environmental conditions across southwestern Wyoming. to discern direct correlations as well as covariate influences between land use, land cover, and abundance of invasive plants, and assess the supposition that these features affect surrounding rangeland conditions. Our sample units were 1 000 m long and extended outward from target features, which included roads, oil and gas well pads, pipelines, power lines, and featureless background sites. Sample sites were distributed across the region using a stratified, random design with a frame that represented features and land-use intensity. In addition to land-use gradients, we captured a representative, but limited, range of variability in climate, soils, geology, topography, and dominant vegetation. Several of these variables proved significant, in conjunction with distance from anthropogenic features, in regression models of invasive plant abundance. We used general linear models to demonstrate and compare associations between invasive plant frequency and Euclidian distance from features, natural logarithm transformed distances (log-linear), and environmental variables which were presented as potential covariates. We expected a steep curvilinear (log or exponential) decline trending towards an asymptote along the axis representing high abundance near features with rapid decrease beyond approximately 50–100 m. Some of the associations we document exhibit this pattern, but we also found some invasive plant distributions that extended beyond our expectations, suggesting a broader distribution than anticipated. Our results provide details that can inform local efforts for management and control of invasive species, and they provide evidence of the different associations between natural patterns and human land use exhibited by nonnative species in this rural setting, such as the indirect effects of humans beyond impact areas.

It is widely believed that wild and domestic herbivores have modified the structure and composition of arid and semi-arid plant communities of western North America, but these beliefs have rarely been tested in long-term, well-replicated studies. We examined the effects of removing large herbivores from semi-arid shrublands for 40–50 years using 17 fenced exclosures in western Colorado, USA. Shrub cover was greater (F=5.87, P=0.0020) and cover (F=3.01, P=0.0601) and frequency (F=3.89, P=0.0211) of forbs was less inside the exclosures (protected) relative to grazed plots. However, we found no significant effects (minimum P=0.18) of protection from grazing on cover or frequency of grasses, biotic crusts, or bare soil. Although mean species richness and diversity were similar between treatments, protected areas had much higher dominance by fewer species, primarily sagebrush. Exclusion of herbivores changed the relationship between species richness and evenness. Consistent with theoretical expectations, species evenness was positively correlated with richness in protected plots (r 2=0.54). However, contrary to theory, evenness and richness were inversely related in grazed plots (r 2 adjacent=0.72, r 2 distant=0.84). We suggest that these differences resulted because grazing acts as a stressor promoting facilitative relationships between plant species that might compete for resources in the absence of grazing. We conclude that exclusion of grazing in the sites we studied caused minor changes in cover and diversity of herbaceous plants, but caused a clear increase in the cover of shrubs. Importantly, the exclusion of ungulates changed the relationship between evenness and richness.

Invasion of grasslands by woody plants has been identified as a key indicator of changes in ecosystem structure and function in arid and semi-arid rangelands throughout the world. We investigated changes in the balance between woody and herbaceous components of a semi-arid landscape in western Colorado (USA) using historical aerial photography. Aerial photographs from 1937, 1965–67, and 1994 were sampled at matched locations within overlapping photographs. We modeled change in spatial pattern and heterogeneity across the entire landscape and found a small, net decrease in woody canopy cover; however means disguised normal distributions of change that demonstrated offsetting increases and decreases. We described a region of widespread canopy decline within pinon-juniper forests between 2300 and 2600 m (7500–8500 feet) and a region of predominant increase at lower elevations, between 1800 and 2250 m (5900–7400 feet). It remains unclear whether this shift was driven by climate or by human-caused or natural disturbance. Mean conifer cover decreased within coniferous forests, which counteracted a trend of increased conifer cover in mixed forests, savanna-like woodlands, and the shrub steppe. Disturbance had a significant interaction with cover change in several communities, including forests, savanna and shrublands. Anthropogenic disturbances counteracted successional trends toward canopy closure more than wildfires, but this did not entirely explain observed canopy decline. The natural dynamics in this region also caused diverse changes rather than a simple progression towards increased forest cover. Importantly, temporal change in vegetation varied spatially across the landscape illustrating the importance of landscape level, spatially explicit analyses in characterizing temporal dynamics.

Using repeat photography, we conducted qualitative and quantitative analyses of changes in forest cover on the western slope of the Rocky Mountains, Colorado, during the 20th century (80–100 years). For the quantitative analysis, paired images were classified using remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) technologies. Comparisons were made using three landscape metrics: total relative cover; mean relative patch size; and number of patches per major vegetation type. We noted several important changes in the pattern of the landscape and the structure of the forests. The relative area covered by interspersed, non-forested rangelands has decreased significantly, and the total forest cover (both aspen, Populus tremuloides Michx., and coniferous types, primarily Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt., and Picea engelmanii Parry) across these landscapes have increased significantly. Other landscape characteristics, such as patch number and patch size distribution also exhibit significant changes. These data reveal that in many cases, there has been important, observable change in the configuration of the landscape at many of these locations resulting in a decrease in the coverage of early seral communities and an increase in closed canopy forest communities. Currently, aspen has not been reduced in the extent of coverage in this region.

The data contained in this report were compiled, modified, and analyzed for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) Integrated Assessment (IA). The WLCI is a long-term science based effort to assess and enhance aquatic and terrestrial habitats at a landscape scale in southwest Wyoming while facilitating responsible energy development through local collaboration and partnerships. The IA is an integrated synthesis and analysis of WLCI resource values based on best available data and information collected from multiple agencies and organizations. It is a support tool for landscape-scale conservation planning and evaluation, and a data and analysis resource that can be used for addressing specific management questions. The IA analysis was conducted using a Geographic Information System in a raster (that is, a grid) environment using a cell size of 30 meters. To facilitate the interpretation of the data in a regional context, mean values were summarized and displayed at the subwatershed unit (WLCI subwatersheds were subset from the National Hydrography Dataset, Hydrologic Unit Code 12/Level 6). A dynamic mapping platform, accessed via the WLCI webpage at http://www.wlci.gov is used to display the mapped information, and to access underlying resource values that were combined to produce the final mapped results. The raster data used in the IA are provided here for use by interested parties to conduct additional analyses and can be accessed via the WLCI webpage. This series contains 74 spatial data sets: WLCI subwatersheds (vector) and 73 geotiffs (raster) that are segregated into the major categories of Multicriteria Index (including Resource Index and Condition), Change Agents, and Future Change. The Total Multicriteria Index is composed of the Aquatic Multicriteria Index and the Terrestrial Multicriteria Index. The Aquatic Multicriteria Index is composed of the Aquatic Resource Index and the Aquatic Condition. The Aquatic Resource Index is composed of the following components: Groundwater, Special Management Areas, and Priority Areas. The Aquatic Condition is composed of the following components: Focal Species, Species of Concern, Focal Ecosystems, and Proper Functioning Condition. The Terrestrial Multicriteria Index is composed of the Terrestrial Resource Index and the Terrestrial Condition. The Terrestrial Resource Index is composed of the following components: Special Management Areas, Agriculture, and Priority Areas. The Terrestrial Condition is composed of the following

Improving understanding of the connections between vegetation, herbivory, and ecosystem function offers a fundamental challenge in contemporary terrestrial ecology. Using exclosures constructed during the late 1950s, we examined effects of grazing by wild and domestic herbivores on plant community structure, aboveground herbaceous primary production, and nutrient cycling at six sites in semi-arid, sagebrush rangelands during 2001–2002 in Colorado, USA. Enclosures provided three treatments: no grazing, grazing by wild ungulates only, and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates. Excluding all grazing caused an increase in shrub cover (F = 4.97, P = 0.033) and decrease in bare ground (F = 4.74, P = 0.037), but also a decrease in plant species richness (F = 6.19, P = 0.018) and plant diversity (F = 7.93, P = 0.008). Effects of wild ungulate grazing on plant cover and diversity were intermediate to the effects of combined domestic and wild grazing. Aboveground net primary production was higher in both grazed treatments than in the ungrazed one (F wild + domestic = 2.98, P = 0.0936 and F wild only = 3.55, P = 0.0684). We were unable to detect significant effects of grazing on other ecosystem states and processes including C:N ratios of standing crops, N mineralization potential, or nitrification potential. Best approximating models revealed positive correlation between N availability and herbaceous cover and a negative correlation between herbaceous primary production and the ratio of shrub–herb cover and plant diversity. We conclude that ungulate herbivory, including both wild and domestic ungulates, had significant effects on plant community structure and ecosystem function during this 42-year span. Responses to the wild ungulate treatment were consistently intermediate to responses to the no grazing and wild + domestic grazing treatments. However, we were unable to detect statistical difference between effects of wild ungulates alone and wild ungulates in combination with livestock.