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Small bodies such as the near-Earth asteroid Bennu drift in their orbit due to thermal radiation forces (the Yarkovsky effect). Ground-based observations have indicated a nonzero probability of Bennu impacting Earth, depending on how its orbit evolves. Thus, among the goals of the OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer) mission to Bennu were to precisely measure the Yarkovsky effect and refine the impact hazard assessment for this body. Here we address these objectives. Using OSIRIS-REx spacecraft tracking data, we derive meter-level constraints on the distance between Earth and Bennu from January 2019 to October 2020. While these data greatly improve the knowledge of the trajectory of Bennu, they also require an unprecedented fidelity for the modeling of an asteroid’s trajectory. In particular, special care is needed to take into account the contribution of 343 small-body perturbers and the uncertainty in their masses. Radiation effects such as the Poynting–Robertson drag, so far only considered for interplanetary dust dynamics, now become a consideration for modeling the trajectory of a 500-m asteroid such as Bennu. By employing a thermophysical model based on OSIRIS-REx’s characterization of Bennu, we estimate a semimajor axis drift of − 284 . 6 ± 0 . 2 m/yr (signal-to-noise ratio ∼ 1400) at epoch 2011 January 1 caused by the Yarkovsky effect. The largest source of modeling error is solar wind drag, which may lower the magnitude of the semimajor axis drift from the Yarkovsky effect by up to 0.16 m/yr. The Yarkovsky-related semimajor axis drift varies by roughly ± 1 m/yr as the orbit of Bennu evolves due to planetary perturbations from 1900 to 2135. The Yarkovsky thermophysical model proves to be extremely accurate by predicting a bulk density estimate within 0.1% of that estimated through gravity science analysis. Compared to the information available before the OSIRIS-REx mission, the knowledge of the circumstances of the scattering Earth encounter that will occur in 2135 improves by a factor of 20, thus allowing us to rule out many previously possible impact trajectories. However, there remain some impact trajectories compatible with the data. Prior to the spacecraft encounter, the overall impact probability through 2200 was 3 . 7 × 1 0 − 4 (1 in 2700). As a result of our analysis, the cumulative impact probability through 2300 becomes 5 . 7 × 1 0 − 4 (1 in 1750) and the most significant individual impact solution is for September 2182, with an impact probability of 3 . 7 × 1 0 − 4 (1 in 2700). Both Bennu and (29075) 1950 DA have a Palermo scale value of − 1 . 42 and share the distinction as the currently most hazardous object in the asteroid catalog.

The Arcsecond Space Telescope Enabling Research in Astrophysics (ASTERIA) was a 6-unit CubeSat technology demonstration mission that was built at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and deployed from the International Space Station (ISS) on November 20th, 2017. After successfully completing its 90-day primary mission that demonstrated arcsecond-level line-of-sight pointing and focal plane thermal stability for exoplanet detection, it entered an extended mission performing onboard software demonstrations alongside science until end of mission in December 2019. At the end of its lifetime it was being used as a demonstration platform for several experiments, including low earth orbit (LEO) optical navigation operations. With its visible light astrometric camera and stable attitude control system, the ASTERIA spacecraft showed itself to be a capable platform for the imaging of geosynchronous satellites from LEO. This paper will describe the imagery attained in flight and also the image processing algorithms that were developed to render that imagery into navigation quality data. These algorithms dealt with hot pixel filtering, noise modeling, attitude registration, star signal rejection and satellite signal identification. Brightness prediction algorithms used for target selection will also be discussed.

In this paper, we develop an algorithm called the Optimal Control-Based Estimator, which is an optimal state estimator that provides information on mismodeled dynamics including natural dynamics and actuated maneuvers. We then apply this algorithm to a tracking problem where satellites in GEO undergo unknown autonomous stationkeeping maneuvers. Through these simulations we demonstrate this algorithm's ability to detect and reconstruct maneuvers given no a priori information about these maneuvers. The specific simulations in this paper demonstrate these properties for two different maneuvers models: (1) continuous smooth thrusting and (2) an impulsive control law.

This paper presents a new method for estimating the mismodeled dynamics parameters of natural forces through the analysis of optimal control policies and control distance metrics. Using similaritie...

The asteroid (101955) Bennu has a heterogeneous internal mass distribution with an underdense center and equatorial bulge., The gravity field of a small body provides insight into its internal mass distribution. We used two approaches to measure the gravity field of the rubble-pile asteroid (101955) Bennu: (i) tracking and modeling the spacecraft in orbit about the asteroid and (ii) tracking and modeling pebble-sized particles naturally ejected from Bennu’s surface into sustained orbits. These approaches yield statistically consistent results up to degree and order 3, with the particle-based field being statistically significant up to degree and order 9. Comparisons with a constant-density shape model show that Bennu has a heterogeneous mass distribution. These deviations can be modeled with lower densities at Bennu’s equatorial bulge and center. The lower-density equator is consistent with recent migration and redistribution of material. The lower-density center is consistent with a past period of rapid rotation, either from a previous Yarkovsky-O’Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack cycle or arising during Bennu’s accretion following the disruption of its parent body.