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Whether impaired kidney function is associated with increased risk of developing dementia is unclear. We investigated the association between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and dementia. Using a triangulation approach, we performed (1) a prospective study in 90,369 Danes from the Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS), (2) a meta-analysis in 468,699 Scandinavians (including CGPS) and (3) a two-sample Mendelian randomization study in 218,792-1,004,040 Europeans using summary data from largest publicly available genome wide association studies (GWASs). During up to 15 years of follow-up (CGPS), 2,468 individuals developed dementia. Age and sex standardized percentile of eGFR below versus above the median conferred a multifactorially adjusted hazard ratio of 1.09 (95% confidence interval: 1.01–1.18). In meta-analysis, random-effects risk of dementia was 1.14 (1.06–1.22) for mildly decreased eGFR (60–90 mL/min/1.73 m 2), 1.31 (0.92–1.87) for moderately decreased eGFR (30–59 mL/min/1.73 m 2) and 1.91 (1.21–3.01) for severely decreased eGFR (< 30 mL/min/1.73 m 2), compared to reference eGFR (> 90 mL/min/1.73 m 2). Using directly comparable eGFR measures (log[eGFR] scaled to one standard deviation, as well as eGFR below versus above 60 mL/min/1.73 m 2), we found no association with risk of dementia in observational CGPS or in Mendelian randomization analyses. In conclusion, impaired kidney function was associated with modestly increased risk of developing dementia. This was not supported by causal, genetic analyses using a Mendelian randomization approach. However, future stronger genetic instruments for kidney function and larger GWASs with more dementia cases, particularly for the vascular dementia subtype, warrant a re-evaluation of the causal hypothesis.

Objective Physiologically, pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) serves to liberate bound IGF1 by enzymatic cleavage of IGF-binding proteins (IGFBPs), IGFBP4 in particular. Clinically, PAPP-A has been linked to cardiovascular disease (CVD). Stanniocalcin-2 (STC2) is a natural inhibitor of PAPP-A enzymatic activity, but its association with CVD is unsettled. Therefore, we examined associations between the STC2–PAPP-A–IGFBP4–IGF1 axis and all-cause mortality and CVD in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Design We followed 1284 participants with T2D from the ADDITION trial for 5 years. Methods Circulating concentrations of STC2, PAPP-A, total and intact IGFBP4 and IGF1 and -2 were measured at inclusion. End-points were all-cause mortality and a composite CVD event: death from CVD, myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularisation or amputation. Survival analysis was performed by Cox proportional hazards model. Results During follow-up, 179 subjects presented with an event. After multivariable adjustment, higher levels of STC2, PAPP-A, as well as intact and total IGFBP4, were associated with all-cause mortality; STC2: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.84 (1.09–3.12) (95% CI); P = 0.023, PAPP-A: HR = 2.81 (1.98–3.98); P < 0.001, intact IGFBP4: HR = 1.43 (1.11–1.85); P = 0.006 and total IGFBP4: HR = 3.06 (1.91–4.91); P < 0.001. Higher PAPP-A levels were also associated with CVD events: HR = 1.74 (1.16–2.62); P = 0.008, whereas lower IGF1 levels were associated with all-cause mortality: HR = 0.51 (0.34–0.76); P = 0.001. Conclusions This study supports that PAPP-A promotes CVD and increases mortality. However, STC2 is also associated with mortality. Given that STC2 inhibits the enzymatic effects of PAPP-A, we speculate that STC2 either serves to counteract harmful PAPP-A actions or possesses effects independently of the PAPP-A–IGF1 axis. Significance statement PAPP-A has pro-atherosclerotic effects and exerts these most likely through IGF1. IGF1 is regulated by the STC2–PAPP-A–IGFBP4–IGF1 axis, where STC2, an irreversible inhibitor of PAPP-A, has been shown to reduce the development of atherosclerotic lesions in mice. We examined the association of this axis to mortality and CVD in T2D. We demonstrated an association between PAPP-A and CVD. All components of the STC2–PAPP-A–IGFBP4–IGF1 axis were associated with mortality and it is novel that STC2 was associated with mortality in T2D. Our study supports that inhibition of PAPP-A may be a new approach to reducing mortality and CVD. Whether modification of STC2 could serve as potential intervention warrants further investigation.

BACKGROUND Large language models have had a huge impact on natural language processing (NLP) in recent years. However, their application in epidemiological research is still limited to analysis of electronic health records and social media data. OBJECTIVE To demonstrate the potential beyond these domains, we aimed to develop prediction models based on texts collected in an epidemiological cohort and compared their performance to classical regression methods. METHODS We used data from the British National Child Development Study, where 10,567 11-year-old children wrote essays about how they imagined themselves as 25-year-olds. Fifteen percent of the dataset was set aside as a test set for performance evaluation. Pre-trained language models were fine-tuned using AutoTrain (by Hugging Face) to predict current reading comprehension score (0-35) and future body mass index (BMI) and physical activity (active vs. inactive) at the age of 33. We then compared their predictive performance (accuracy or discrimination) with linear and logistic regression models including demographic and lifestyle factors of the parents and the children between birth and age 11 as predictors. RESULTS NLP clearly outperformed linear regression when predicting reading comprehension score (RMSE=3.89 [95% CI: 3.74, 4.05] for NLP vs. 4.14 [3.98, 4.30] and 5.41 [5.23, 5.58] for regression models with and without general ability score as predictor). Predictive performance for physical activity was similarly poor for the two methods (AUC ROC=0.55 [0.52, 0.60] for both), but slightly better than random assignment, while linear regression clearly outperformed the NLP approach when predicting BMI (RMSE=4.38 [4.02, 4.74] for NLP vs. 3.85 [3.54, 4.16] for regression). The NLP approach did not perform better than simply assigning the mean BMI from the training set as predictors. CONCLUSIONS Our study demonstrated the potential of using large language models to utilize text collected in epidemiological studies. The performance of the approach appeared to depend on how directly the topic of the text was related to outcome. Open-ended questions specifically designed to capture certain health concepts and lived experiences in combination with NLP methods should receive more attention in future epidemiological studies.

Background Peripheral and central hemodynamic indices are modifiable by lifestyle and medical intervention. We aimed to determine the long-term effect of intensive multifactorial treatment on peripheral and central hemodynamic indices among people with screen-detected diabetes. Methods Between 2001 and 2006, people with screen-detected type 2 diabetes were included in the Anglo-Danish-Dutch study of Intensive Treatment of Diabetes in Primary Care (ADDITION) trial (NCT00237549, ClinicalTrials.gov). In the Danish arm, participants were invited to a clinical examination in 2015–2016, 13 years after inclusion and 8 years after trial-end. Out of 586 eligible participants who attended the clinical examination, 411 had a valid examination of central and peripheral hemodynamic indices (242 received intensive treatment and 169 received routine care). Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV), central blood pressure and augmentation index were assessed by applanation tonometry. We used mixed-effect models to examine the intervention effect adjusting for cluster randomization and heart rate. Results Randomization to intensive treatment during the trial-period was associated with a 0.58 m/s lower cfPWV (95% CI − 1.09 to − 0.06) at follow-up. Adjustment for blood pressure attenuated the association. Differences between intervention groups for central augmentation index were − 1.25% (95% CI: − 3.28 to 0.78), central pulse pressure − 1.74 mmHg (95% CI − 4.79 to 1.31), central systolic blood pressure − 3.06 mmHg (− 7.08 to 0.96), and central diastolic blood pressure − 1.70 mmHg (− 3.74 to 0.34). Conclusions Intensive multifactorial treatment of screen-detected type 2 diabetes has a sustained positive effect on aortic stiffness measured by cfPWV. Although all estimates pointed in favor of intensive treatment, we observed no clear beneficial effect on other hemodynamic indices.

OBJECTIVE: The global rise in type 2 diabetes is associated with a concomitant increase in diabetic complications. Diabetic polyneuropathy is the most frequent type 2 diabetes complication and is associated with poor outcomes. The metabolic syndrome has emerged as a major risk factor for diabetic polyneuropathy; however, the metabolites associated with the metabolic syndrome that correlate with diabetic polyneuropathy are unknown.METHODS: We conducted a global metabolomics analysis on plasma samples from a subcohort of participants from the Danish arm of Anglo-Danish-Dutch study of Intensive Treatment of Diabetes in Primary Care (ADDITION-Denmark) with and without diabetic polyneuropathy versus lean control participants.RESULTS: Compared to lean controls, type 2 diabetes participants had significantly higher HbA1c (p = 0.0028), BMI (p = 0.0004), and waist circumference (p = 0.0001), but lower total cholesterol (p = 0.0001). Out of 991 total metabolites, we identified 15 plasma metabolites that differed in type 2 diabetes participants by diabetic polyneuropathy status, including metabolites belonging to energy, lipid, and xenobiotic pathways, among others. Additionally, these metabolites correlated with alterations in plasma lipid metabolites in type 2 diabetes participants based on neuropathy status. Further evaluating all plasma lipid metabolites identified a shift in abundance, chain length, and saturation of free fatty acids in type 2 diabetes participants. Importantly, the presence of diabetic polyneuropathy impacted the abundance of plasma complex lipids, including acylcarnitines and sphingolipids.INTERPRETATION: Our explorative study suggests that diabetic polyneuropathy in type 2 diabetes is associated with novel alterations in plasma metabolites related to lipid metabolism.

Background People with type 1 diabetes often live for many years with different combinations of diabetes-related complications. We aimed to quantify how complication duration and total complication burden affect mortality, using data from national registers. Methods This study included 33 396 individuals with type 1 diabetes, registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register at any time between 2001 and 2012. Each individual was followed and classified according to their time-updated diabetes-related complication status. The main outcomes were all-cause mortality, cardiovascular (CV) mortality and non-CV mortality. Poisson models were used to estimate the rate of these outcomes as a function of the time-updated complication duration. Results Overall, 1748 of the 33 396 individuals died during 198 872 person-years of follow-up. Overall, the time-updated all-cause mortality rate ratio (MRR) was 2.25 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.99–2.54] for patients with diabetic kidney disease, 0.98 (0.82–1.18) for patients with retinopathy and 4.00 (3.56–4.50) for patients with cardiovascular disease relative to individuals without complications. The excess rate was highest in the first period after a diagnosis of CVD, with an 8-fold higher mortality rate, and stabilized after some 5 years. After diagnosis of diabetic kidney disease, we observed an increase in all-cause mortality with an MRR of around 2 compared with individuals without diabetic kidney disease, which stabilized after few years. Conclusions In this cohort we show that duration of diabetes-related complications is an important determinant of mortality in type 1 diabetes, for example the MRR associated with CVD is highest in the first period after diagnosis of CVD. A stronger focus on time-updated information and thorough consideration of complication duration may improve risk stratification in routine clinical practice.

Context Blood lipid levels are linked to the risk of cardiovascular disease and regulated by genetic factors. A low-frequency polymorphism Arg82Cys (rs72836561) in the membrane protein nepmucin, encoded by CD300LG, is associated with lower fasting concentration of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLc) and higher fasting triglycerides. However, whether the variant is linked to postprandial lipids and glycemic status remains elusive. Objective Here, we augment the genetic effect of Arg82Cys on fasting plasma concentrations of HDL subclasses, postprandial lipemia after a standardized high-fat meal, and glycemic status to further untangle its role in HDL metabolism. Methods We elucidated fasting associations with HDL subclasses in a population-based cohort study (Oxford BioBank, OBB), including 4522 healthy men and women. We investigated fasting and postprandial consequences on HDL metabolism in recall-by-genotype (RbG) studies (fasting: 20 carrier/20 noncarrier; postprandial: 7 carrier/17 noncarrier), and shed light on the synergistic interaction with glycemic status. Results A lower fasting plasma concentration of cholesterol in large HDL particles was found in healthy male carriers of the Cys82 polymorphism compared to noncarriers, both in the OBB (P = .004) and RbG studies (P = .005). In addition, the Cys82 polymorphism was associated with low fasting plasma concentrations of ApoA1 (P = .008) in the OBB cohort. On the contrary, we did not find differences in postprandial lipemia or 2-hour plasma glucose levels. Conclusion Taken together, our results indicate an association between the Arg82Cys variant and a lower concentration of HDL particles and HDLc, especially in larger HDL subclasses, suggesting a link between nepmucin and HDLc metabolism or maturation.

With an increased prevalence of concurrent morbidities during pregnancy, polypharmacy has become increasingly common in pregnant women. The risks associated with polypharmacy may exceed those of individual medication because of drug–drug interactions. This systematic review aims to evaluate the risk of congenital malformations in polymorbid pregnancies exposed to first-trimester polypharmacy. PubMed, Embase and Scopus were searched to identify original human studies with first- trimester polypharmacy due to polymorbidity as the exposure and congenital malformations as the outcome. After screening of 4034 identified records, seven studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Four of the seven studies reported an increased risk of congenital malformations compared with unexposed or monotherapy, odds ratios ranging from 1.1 to >10.0. Particularly, short-term anti-infective treatment combined with other drugs and P-glycoprotein substrates were associated with increased malformation risks. In conclusion, knowledge is limited on risks associated with first-trimester polypharmacy due to polymorbidity with the underlying evidence of low quantity and quality. Therefore, an increased focus on pharmacovigilance to enable safe drug use in early pregnancy is needed. Large-scale register-based studies and better knowledge of placental biology are needed to support the clinical management of polymorbid pregnancies that require polypharmacy.

Background: In 2011, the World Health Organization began recommending glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) as a measure for diagnosing type 2 diabetes (T2D). This initiative may have changed basic T2D epidemiology. Consequently, we examined time changes in T2D incidence and mortality during 1995-2018. Methods: In this population-based cohort study, we included 415,553 individuals with incident T2D. We calculated annual age-standardized incidence rates of T2D. We examined HbA1c testing and used Poisson-regression to investigate all-cause mortality among the T2D patients and a matched comparison cohort from the general population over successive 3-year periods. Findings: From 1995 to the 2012 introduction of HbA1c testing as a diagnostic option in Denmark, the annual standardized incidence rate (SIR) of T2D doubled, from 193 to 396 per 100,000 persons (4.1% increase annually). From 2012 onwards, the T2D incidence declined by 36%, reaching 253 per 100,000 persons in 2018 (5.7% decrease annually). This was driven by fewer patients starting treatment with an HbA1c measurement of 1c testing. Mortality per 1,000 person-years following a T2D diagnosis decreased by 44% between 1995-1997 and 2010-2012, from 69 deaths to 38 deaths (adjusted mortality rate ratio: 0·55 (95% CI: 0·54-0·56)). After the low level during 2010-2012, mortality increased again by 27% to 48 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 46-50) by 2016-2018. Interpretation: Our findings suggest that introducing HbA1c as a diagnostic option may have changed basic T2D epidemiology by leaving patients undiagnosed, that previously would have been diagnosed and treated. Funding: Aarhus University funded the study and had no further involvement.

Background Obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D) are correlated risk factors for chronic kidney disease (CKD). Methods Using summary data from GIANT (Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits), DIAGRAM (DIAbetes Genetics Replication And Meta-analysis), and CKDGen (CKD Genetics), we examined causality and directionality of the association between obesity and kidney function. Bidirectional 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) estimated the total causal effects of body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) on kidney function, and vice versa. Effects of adverse obesity and T2D were examined by stratifying BMI variants by their association with WHR and T2D. Multivariable MR estimated the direct causal effects of BMI and WHR on kidney function. The inverse variance weighted random-effects MR for Europeans was the main analysis, accompanied by several sensitivity MR analyses. Results One standard deviation (SD ≈ 4.8 kg/m2) genetically higher BMI was associated with decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) [β=−0.032 (95% confidence intervals: −0.036, −0.027) log[eGFR], P = 1 × 10−43], increased blood urea nitrogen (BUN) [β = 0.010 (0.005, 0.015) log[BUN], P = 3 × 10−6], increased urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio [β = 0.199 (0.067, 0.332) log[urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR)], P = 0.003] in individuals with diabetes, and increased risk of microalbuminuria [odds ratios (OR) = 1.15 [1.04–1.28], P = 0.009] and CKD [1.13 (1.07–1.19), P = 3 × 10−6]. Corresponding estimates for WHR and for trans-ethnic populations were overall similar. The associations were driven by adverse obesity, and for microalbuminuria additionally by T2D. While genetically high BMI, unlike WHR, was directly associated with eGFR, BUN, and CKD, the pathway to albuminuria was likely through T2D. Genetically predicted kidney function was not associated with BMI or WHR. Conclusions Genetically high BMI is associated with impaired kidney function, driven by adverse obesity, and for albuminuria additionally by T2D.

Background and aimTo examine the association between baseline level and change of autonomic nervous function with subsequent development of arterial stiffness.MethodsAutonomic nervous function was assessed of 4,901 participants of the Whitehall II occupational cohort by heart rate variability (HRV) indices and resting heart rate (rHR) three times between 1997-2009, while arterial stiffness was assessed by carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) measured twice between 2007-2013. First, individual HRV/rHR levels and annual changes were estimated. Then, we modelled the development of PWV by HRV/rHR using linear mixed effect models. First, we adjusted for sex and ethnicity (model 1), and then for socioeconomic and lifestyle factors, various clinical measurements, and medications (model 2).ResultsA decrease in HRV and unchanged rHR was associated with subsequent higher levels of PWV, but the effect of a change in HRV was less pronounced at higher ages. A typical individual aged 65 years with a SDNN level of 30 ms and a 2% annual decrease in SDNN had 1.32 (0.95; 1.69) higher PWV compared to one with the same age and SDNN level but with a 1% annual decrease in SDNN. Further adjustment had no major effect on the results.ConclusionPeople who experience a steeper decline of autonomic nervous function have higher levels of arterial stiffness. However, the association was weaker at higher ages.

Large-scale gene sequencing studies for complex traits have the potential to identify causal genes with therapeutic implications. We performed gene-based association testing of blood lipid levels with rare (minor allele frequency < 1%) predicted damaging coding variation by using sequence data from >170,000 individuals from multiple ancestries: 97,493 European, 30,025 South Asian, 16,507 African, 16,440 Hispanic/Latino, 10,420 East Asian, and 1,182 Samoan. We identified 35 genes associated with circulating lipid levels; some of these genes have not been previously associated with lipid levels when using rare coding variation from population-based samples. We prioritize 32 genes in array-based genome-wide association study (GWAS) loci based on aggregations of rare coding variants; three (EVI5, SH2B3, and PLIN1) had no prior association of rare coding variants with lipid levels. Most of our associated genes showed evidence of association among multiple ancestries. Finally, we observed an enrichment of gene-based associations for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol drug target genes and for genes closest to GWAS index single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Our results demonstrate that gene-based associations can be beneficial for drug target development and provide evidence that the gene closest to the array-based GWAS index SNP is often the functional gene for blood lipid levels. This work was supported by a grant from the Swedish Research Council (2016-06830) and grants from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI): R01HL142711 and R01HL127564. Please refer to the supplemental information for the full acknowledgements. Sí

The amount of biological data created increases every year, driven largely by technologies such as high-throughput -omics, real-time monitoring, or high resolution imaging in addition to greater access to routine administrative data and larger study populations. This not only presents operational challenges, but also highlights considerable needs for the skills and knowledge to manage, process, and analyze this data.Along with the open science movement on the rise, methods and analytic processes are also increasingly expected to be open and transparent and for scientific studies to be reproducible.Unfortunately, training in modern computational skills has not kept pace, which is particularly evident in biomedical research, where training tends to focus on clinical, experimental, or wet-lab skills. The computational learning module we have developed and described below aims to introduce and improve skills in R, reproducibility, and open science for researchers in the biomedical field, with a focus on diabetes research.The r-cubed (Reproducible Research in R or R3) learning module is structured as a three-day workshop, with five sub-modules. We have specifically designed the module as an open educational resource that: 1) instructors can make use of directly or modify for their own lessons; and, 2) learners can use independently or as a reference after participating in the workshop. All content is available for re-use under CC-BY License.

ObjectivesPotentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) pose an increasing challenge in the ageing population. We aimed to assess the extent of PIMs and the prescriber-related variation in PIM prevalence.DesignNationwide register-based cohort study.SettingGeneral practice.ParticipantsThe 4.2 million adults listed with general practitioner (GP) clinics in Denmark (n=1906) in 2016.Main outcome measuresWe estimated the patients’ time with PIMs by using 29 register-operationalised STOPP criteria linking GP clinics and redeemed prescriptions. For each criterion and each GP clinic, we calculated ratios between the observed PIM time and that predicted by multivariate Poisson regressions on the patients. The observed variation was measured as the 90th/10th percentile ratios of these ratios. The extent of expectable random variation was assessed as the 90th/10th percentile ratios in randomly sampled GP populations (ie, the sampled variation). The GP-related excess variation was calculated as the ratio between the observed variation and sampled variation. The linear correlation between the observed/expected ratio for each of the criteria and the observed/expected ratio of total PIM time (for each clinic) was measured by Pearson’s rho.ResultsOverall, 294 542 individuals were exposed to 1 44 117 years of PIMs. The two most prevalent PIMs were long-term use (>3 months) of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (51 074 years of PIMs) or benzodiazepines (48 723 years of PIMs). These two criteria showed considerable excess variation of 2.33 and 3.05, respectively; for total PIMs, this figure was 1.65. For more than half of the criteria, we observed a positive correlation between the specific PIM and the sum of remaining PIMs.ConclusionsThis study documents considerable variations in the prescribing practice of GPs for certain PIMs. These findings highlight a need for exploring the causal explanations for such variations, which could be markers of suboptimal GP-prescribing strategies.

OBJECTIVE Symptoms indicative of diabetic polyneuropathy (DPN) early in type 2 diabetes may act as a marker for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and death. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We linked data from two Danish type 2 diabetes cohorts, the Anglo-Danish-Dutch Study of Intensive Treatment in People With Screen-Detected Diabetes in Primary Care (ADDITION-Denmark) and the Danish Centre for Strategic Research in Type 2 Diabetes (DD2), to national health care registers. The Michigan Neuropathy Screening Instrument questionnaire (MNSIq) was completed at diabetes diagnosis in ADDITION-Denmark and at a median of 4.6 years after diagnosis of diabetes in DD2. An MNSIq score ≥4 was considered as indicative of DPN. Using Poisson regressions, we computed incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of CVD and all-cause mortality comparing MNSIq scores ≥4 with scores RESULTS In total, 1,445 (ADDITION-Denmark) and 5,028 (DD2) individuals were included in the study. Compared with MNSIq scores CONCLUSIONS The MNSIq may be a tool to identify a subgroup within individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes with a high incidence rate of subsequent CVD. MNSIq scores ≥4, indicating DPN, were associated with a markedly higher incidence rate of CVD, beyond that conferred by established CVD risk factors.

OBJECTIVE Autonomic nervous system dysfunction is associated with impaired glucose metabolism, but the temporality of this association remains unclear in individuals without diabetes. We investigated the association of autonomic function with 5-year changes in glucose metabolism in individuals without diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Analyses were based on 9,000 person-examinations for 3,631 participants without diabetes in the Whitehall II cohort. Measures of autonomic function included 5-min resting heart rate and six heart rate variability (HRV) indices. Associations between baseline autonomic function measures and 5-year changes in fasting and 2-h plasma glucose, serum insulin concentrations, insulin sensitivity (insulin sensitivity index [ISI0–120] and HOMA of insulin sensitivity), and β-cell function (HOMA of β-cell function) were estimated in models adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, metabolic factors, and medication. RESULTS A 10-bpm higher resting heart rate was associated with 5-year changes in fasting and 2-h insulin and ISI0–120 of 3.3% change (95% CI 1.8; 4.8), P < 0.001; 3.3% change (1.3; 5.3), P = 0.001; and −1.4% change (−2.4; −0.3), P = 0.009, respectively. In models adjusted for age, sex, and ethnicity, higher baseline values of several HRV indices were associated with a 5-year decrease in fasting and 2-h insulin and ISI0–120. However, significance was lost by full adjustment. A majority of HRV indices exhibited a trend toward higher values being associated with lower insulin levels and higher insulin sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS Higher resting heart rate in individuals without diabetes is associated with future unfavorable changes in insulin levels and insulin sensitivity. Associations may be mediated via autonomic function; however, results are inconclusive. Resting heart rate may be a risk marker for future pathophysiological changes in glucose metabolism.

Aims: We examined whether late evening food consumption was prospectively associated with the risk of developing prediabetes or diabetes in a large observational study of individuals with normoglycaemia. Methods: Participants were 2642 men and women with normoglycaemia (HbA1c 1c and risk of developing prediabetes or diabetes (HbA1c ≥ 39 mmol/mol; ≥ 5.7%). Potential heterogeneity in the association between TLEE and prediabetes or diabetes was examined using recursive partitioning modelling for time-to-event outcomes. Results: There was a tendency of an overall association of TLEE with change in HbA1c but with little effect size [β per 1-h increase in TLEE = 0.2 mmol/mol, 95% CI −0.0 to 0.3 (0.01%, −0.00 to 0.03); P = 0.055] and no association with the risk of developing prediabetes/diabetes (risk ratio per 1-h increase in TLEE = 1.03, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.13; P = 0.511). According to the recursive partitioning modelling, women with HbA1c ≤ 36 mmol/mol and TLEE after 21:00 had a 1.51 times (95% CI 1.16 to 1.93) higher 5-year risk of developing prediabetes or diabetes than those having their TLEE between 16:00 and 21:00 (35.4% vs. 23.5%; P = 0.003). Conclusions: There was no overall association of TLEE with the development of prediabetes or diabetes in the Whitehall II population. However, explorative analyses suggested that eating late in the evening was associated with increased risk of developing prediabetes/diabetes among women with good glycaemic control. Whether restricting late evening food consumption is effective and feasible for the prevention of Type 2 diabetes needs testing in randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Administrative patient registers are often used to estimate morbidity in epidemiological studies. The validity of register data is thus important. This study aims to assess the positive predictive value of myocardial infarction and stroke registered in the Danish National Patient Register, and to examine the association between cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular disease based on register data or validated diagnoses in a well-defined diabetes population.METHODS: We included 1533 individuals found with screen-detected type 2 diabetes in the ADDITION-Denmark study in 2001-2006. All individuals were followed for cardiovascular outcomes until the end of 2014. Hospital discharge codes for myocardial infarction and stroke were identified in the Danish National Patient Register. Hospital medical records and other clinically relevant information were collected and an independent adjudication committee evaluated all possible events. The positive predictive value for myocardial infarction and stroke were calculated as the proportion of cases recorded in the Danish National Patient Register confirmed by the adjudication committee.RESULTS: The positive predictive value was 75% (95% CI: 64;84) for MI and 70% (95% CI: 54;80) for stroke. The association between cardiovascular risk factors and incident cardiovascular disease did not depend on using register-based or verified diagnoses. However, a tendency was seen towards stronger associations when using verified diagnoses.CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that studies using only register-based diagnoses are likely to misclassify cardiovascular outcomes. Moreover, the results suggest that the magnitude of associations between cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular outcomes may be underestimated when using register-based diagnoses.

Objective Symptoms indicative of diabetic polyneuropathy (DPN) early in type 2 diabetes may act as a marker for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and death. Research Design and Methods We linked data from two Danish type 2 diabetes cohorts, ADDITION-Denmark and DD2, to national healthcare registers. The Michigan Neuropathy Screening Instrument questionnaire (MNSIq) was completed at diabetes diagnosis in ADDITION-Denmark and at a median of 4.6 years after diagnosis of diabetes in DD2. An MNSIq score ≥ 4 was considered as indicative of DPN. Using Poisson regressions, we computed incidence rate ratios of CVD and all-cause mortality comparing MNSIq scores ≥ 4 with scores < 4. Analyses were adjusted for a range of established CVD risk factors. Results In total, 1,445 (ADDITION-Denmark) and 5,028 (DD2) individuals were included in the study. Compared with MNSIq scores < 4, MNSIq scores ≥ 4 were associated with higher incidence rate of CVD, with incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of 1.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.38-2.31] in ADDITION-Denmark, 1.57 (CI: 1.27-1.94) in the DD2, and a combined IRR of 1.65 (CI: 1.41-1.95) in a fixed-effect meta-analysis. MNSIq scores ≥ 4 did not associate with mortality; combined mortality rate ratio 1.11 (CI: 0.83-1.48). Conclusions The MNSIq may be a tool to identify a subgroup within individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes who has a high incidence rate of subsequent CVD. MNSIq scores ≥ 4, indicating DPN, were associated with a markedly higher incidence rate of CVD, beyond that conferred by established CVD risk factors.

In a response to a Formal Comment critiquing their model for classifying individualized glucose patterns into glucotypes, these authors stand by their results and conclusions, which can be reproduced using their publicly available data, and maintain that improved algorithms for analyzing CGM data will continue to emerge and enrich the field.

Fasting duration has been associated with lower fasting blood glucose levels, but higher 2-h post-load levels, and research has indicated an adverse effect of ‘weekend behavior’ on human metabolism. We investigated associations of fasting duration and weekday of examination with glucose, insulin, glucagon and incretin responses to an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). This cross-sectional study is based on data from the ADDITION-PRO study, where 2082 individuals attended a health examination including an OGTT. Linear regression analysis was applied to study the associations of overnight fasting duration and day of the week with glucose, insulin, glucagon, glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) and glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) responses to an OGTT. We found that a 1 h longer fasting duration was associated with 1.7% (95% CI: 0.8,2.5) higher 2-h glucose levels, as well as a 3.0% (95% CI: 1.3,4.7) higher GIP and 2.3% (95% CI: 0.3,4.4) higher GLP-1 response. Fasting insulin levels were 20.6% (95% CI: 11.2,30.7) higher on Mondays compared to the other weekdays, with similar fasting glucose levels (1.7%, 95% CI: 0.0,3.4). In this study, longer overnight fasting duration was associated with a worsening of glucose tolerance and increased incretin response to oral glucose. We found higher fasting insulin levels on Mondays compared to the other days of the week, potentially indicating a worsened glucose regulation after the weekend.

OBJECTIVE Higher resting heart rate (rHR) and lower heart rate variability (HRV) are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in people with and without diabetes. It is unknown whether temporal changes in rHR and HRV may contribute to this risk. We investigated associations between 5-year changes in rHR and HRV and risk of future CVD and death, taking into account participants’ baseline glycemic state. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS In this prospective, population-based cohort study we investigated 4,611 CVD-free civil servants (mean [SD] age, 60 [5.9] years; 70% men). We measured rHR and/or six indices of HRV. Associations of 5-year change in 5-min rHR and HRV with fatal and nonfatal CVD and all-cause mortality or the composite of the two were assessed, with adjustments made for relevant confounders. Effect modification by glycemic state was tested. RESULTS At baseline, 63% of participants were normoglycemic, 29% had prediabetes, and 8% had diabetes. During a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 11.9 (11.4; 12.3) years, 298 participants (6.5%) experienced a CVD event and 279 (6.1%) died of non–CVD-related causes. We found no association between 5-year changes in rHR and HRV and future events. Only baseline rHR was associated with all-cause mortality. A 10 bpm–higher baseline HR level was associated with an 11.4% higher rate of all-cause mortality (95% CI 1.0–22.9%; P = 0.032). Glycemic state did not modify associations. CONCLUSIONS Changes in rHR and HRV and possibly also baseline values of these measures are not associated with future CVD or death in people with or without dysglycemia.

IntroductionWe compared the degree of spousal concordance in a set of detailed pathophysiological markers and risk factors for type 2 diabetes to understand where in the causal cascade spousal similarities are most relevant.Research design and methodsThis is a cross-sectional analysis of couples who participated in The Maastricht Study (n=172). We used quantile regression models to assess spousal concordance in risk factors for type 2 diabetes, including four adiposity measures, two dimensions of physical activity, sedentary time and two diet indicators. We additionally assessed beta cell function and insulin sensitivity and glucose metabolism status with fasting and 2-hour plasma glucose and hemoglobin A1c.ResultsThe strongest spousal concordance (beta estimates) was observed for the Dutch Healthy Diet Index (DHDI) in men. A one-unit increase in wives’ DHDI was associated with a 0.53 (95% CI 0.22 to 0.67) unit difference in men’s DHDI. In women, the strongest concordance was for the time spent in high-intensity physical activity (HPA); thus, a one-unit increase in husbands’ time spent in HPA was associated with a 0.36 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.64) unit difference in women’s time spent in HPA. The weakest spousal concordance was observed in beta cell function indices.ConclusionsSpousal concordance was strongest in behavioral risk factors. Concordance weakened when moving downstream in the causal cascade leading to type 2 diabetes. Public health prevention strategies to mitigate diabetes risk may benefit from targeting spousal similarities in health-related behaviors and diabetes risk factors to design innovative and potentially more effective couple-based interventions.

Background In order to explore the pathophysiology underlying type 2 diabetes we examined the impact of gene variants associated with type 2 diabetes on circulating levels of glucagon during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Furthermore, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) aiming to identify novel genomic loci affecting plasma glucagon levels. Methods Plasma levels of glucagon were examined in samples obtained at three time points during an OGTT; 0, 30 and 120 min, in two separate cohorts with a total of up to 1899 individuals. Cross-sectional analyses were performed separately in the two cohorts and the results were combined in a meta-analysis. Results A known type 2 diabetes variant in EYA2 was significantly associated with higher plasma glucagon level at 30 min during the OGTT (Beta 0.145, SE 0.038, P = 1.2 × 10–4) corresponding to a 7.4% increase in plasma glucagon level per effect allele. In the GWAS, we identified a marker in the MARCH1 locus, which was genome-wide significantly associated with reduced suppression of glucagon during the first 30 min of the OGTT (Beta − 0.210, SE 0.037, P = 1.9 × 10–8), equivalent to 8.2% less suppression per effect allele. Nine additional independent markers, not previously associated with type 2 diabetes, showed suggestive associations with reduced glucagon suppression during the first 30 min of the OGTT (P –5). Conclusions A type 2 diabetes risk variant in the EYA2 locus was associated with higher plasma glucagon levels at 30 min. Ten additional variants were suggestively associated with reduced glucagon suppression without conferring increased type 2 diabetes risk.

Large-scale gene sequencing studies for complex traits have the potential to identify causal genes with therapeutic implications. We performed gene-based association testing of blood lipid levels with rare (minor allele frequency170,000 individuals from multiple ancestries: 97,493 European, 30,025 South Asian, 16,507 African, 16,440 Hispanic/Latino, 10,420 East Asian, and 1,182 Samoan. We identified 35 genes associated with circulating lipid levels. Ten of these: ALB, SRSF2, JAK2, CREB3L3, TMEM136, VARS, NR1H3, PLA2G12A, PPARG and STAB1 have not been implicated for lipid levels using rare coding variation in population-based samples. We prioritize 32 genes identified in array-based genome-wide association study (GWAS) loci based on gene-based associations, of which three: EVI5, SH2B3, and PLIN1, had no prior evidence of rare coding variant associations. Most of the associated genes showed evidence of association in multiple ancestries. Also, we observed an enrichment of gene-based associations for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol drug target genes, and for genes closest to GWAS index single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP). Our results demonstrate that gene-based associations can be beneficial for drug target development and provide evidence that the gene closest to the array-based GWAS index SNP is often the functional gene for blood lipid levels.

AIMS: Short-term weight loss may lead to remission of type 2 diabetes but the effect of maintained weight loss on cardiovascular disease (CVD) is unknown. We quantified the associations between changes in weight 5 years following a diagnosis of diabetes, and incident CVD events and mortality up to 10 years after diagnosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Observational analysis of the ADDITION-Europe trial of 2730 adults with screen-detected type 2 diabetes from the UK, Denmark and the Netherlands. We defined weight change based on the maintenance at 5 years of weight loss achieved during the year after diabetes diagnosis, and as 5-year overall change in weight. Incident CVD events (n = 229) and all-cause mortality (n = 225) from 5 to 10 years follow-up were ascertained from medical records. RESULTS: Gaining >2% weight during the year after diabetes diagnosis was associated with higher hazard of all-cause mortality versus maintaining weight [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 3.18 (1.30-7.82)]. Losing ≥5% weight 1 year after diagnosis was also associated with mortality, whether or not weight loss was maintained at 5 years: 2.47 (0.99-6.21) and 2.72 (1.17-6.30), respectively. Losing ≥10% weight over 5 years was associated with mortality among those with body mass index

Hundreds of thousands of genetic variants have been reported to cause severe monogenic diseases, but the probability that a variant carrier will develop the disease (termed penetrance) is unknown for virtually all of them. Additionally, the clinical utility of common polygenetic variation remains uncertain. Using exome sequencing from 77,184 adult individuals (38,618 multi-ancestral individuals from a type 2 diabetes case-control study and 38,566 participants from the UK Biobank, for whom genotype array data were also available), we applied clinical standard-of-care gene variant curation for eight monogenic metabolic conditions. Rare variants causing monogenic diabetes and dyslipidemias displayed effect sizes significantly larger than the top 1% of the corresponding polygenic scores. Nevertheless, penetrance estimates for monogenic variant carriers averaged below 60% in both studies for all conditions except monogenic diabetes. We assessed additional epidemiologic and genetic factors contributing to risk prediction, demonstrating that inclusion of common polygenic variation significantly improved biomarker estimation for two monogenic dyslipidemias.

We assembled an ancestrally diverse collection of genome-wide association studies of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in 180,834 cases and 1,159,055 controls (48.9% non-European descent). We identified 277 loci at genome-wide significance (p-8), including 237 attaining a more stringent trans-ancestry threshold (p-9), which were delineated to 338 distinct association signals. Trans-ancestry meta-regression offered substantial enhancements to fine-mapping, with 58.6% of associations more precisely localised due to population diversity, and 54.4% of signals resolved to a single variant with >50% posterior probability. This improved fine-mapping enabled systematic assessment of candidate causal genes and molecular mechanisms through which T2D associations are mediated, laying foundations for functional investigations. Trans-ancestry genetic risk scores enhanced transferability across diverse populations, providing a step towards more effective clinical translation to improve global health.

AIMS: To present the longer-term impact of multifactorial treatment of type 2 diabetes on self-reported health status, diabetes-specific quality of life, and diabetes treatment satisfaction at 10-year follow up of the ADDITION-Europe trial.METHODS: The ADDITION-Europe trial enrolled 3057 individuals with screen-detected type 2 diabetes from four centres [Denmark, the UK (Cambridge and Leicester) and the Netherlands], between 2001 and 2006. Participants were randomized at general practice level to intensive treatment or to routine care . The trial ended in 2009 and a 10-year follow-up was performed at the end of 2014. We measured self-reported health status (36-item Short-Form Health Survey and EQ-5D), diabetes-specific quality of life (Audit of Diabetes-Dependent Quality of Life questionnaire), and diabetes treatment satisfaction (Diabetes Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire) at different time points during the study period. A mixed-effects model was applied to estimate the effect of intensive treatment (intention-to-treat analyses) on patient-reported outcome measures for each centre. Centre-specific estimates were pooled using a fixed effects meta-analysis.RESULTS: There was no difference in patient-reported outcome measures between the routine care and intensive treatment arms in this 10-year follow-up study [EQ-5D: -0.01 (95% CI -0.03, 0.01); Physical Composite Score (36-item Short-Form Health Survey): -0.27 (95% CI -1.11, 0.57), Audit of Diabetes-Dependent Quality of Life questionnaire: -0.01 (95% CI -0.11, 0.10); and Diabetes Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire: -0.20 (95% CI -0.70, 0.29)].CONCLUSIONS: Intensive, multifactorial treatment of individuals with screen-detected type 2 diabetes did not affect self-reported health status, diabetes-specific quality of life, or diabetes treatment satisfaction at 10-year follow-up compared to routine care.