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While recent advancements in computation and modelling have improved the analysis of complex traits, our understanding of the genetic basis of the time at symptom onset remains limited. Here, we develop a Bayesian approach (BayesW) that provides probabilistic inference of the genetic architecture of age-at-onset phenotypes in a sampling scheme that facilitates biobank-scale time-to-event analyses. We show in extensive simulation work the benefits BayesW provides in terms of number of discoveries, model performance and genomic prediction. In the UK Biobank, we find many thousands of common genomic regions underlying the age-at-onset of high blood pressure (HBP), cardiac disease (CAD), and type-2 diabetes (T2D), and for the genetic basis of onset reflecting the underlying genetic liability to disease. Age-at-menopause and age-at-menarche are also highly polygenic, but with higher variance contributed by low frequency variants. Genomic prediction into the Estonian Biobank data shows that BayesW gives higher prediction accuracy than other approaches., Few genome-wide association studies have explored the genetic architecture of age-of-onset for traits and diseases. Here, the authors develop a Bayesian approach to improve prediction in timing-related phenotypes and perform age-of-onset analyses across complex traits in the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: The molecular factors which control circulating levels of inflammatory proteins are not well understood. Furthermore, association studies between molecular probes and human traits are often performed by linear model-based methods which may fail to account for complex structure and interrelationships within molecular datasets.METHODS: In this study, we perform genome- and epigenome-wide association studies (GWAS/EWAS) on the levels of 70 plasma-derived inflammatory protein biomarkers in healthy older adults (Lothian Birth Cohort 1936; n = 876; Olink® inflammation panel). We employ a Bayesian framework (BayesR+) which can account for issues pertaining to data structure and unknown confounding variables (with sensitivity analyses using ordinary least squares- (OLS) and mixed model-based approaches).RESULTS: We identified 13 SNPs associated with 13 proteins (n = 1 SNP each) concordant across OLS and Bayesian methods. We identified 3 CpG sites spread across 3 proteins (n = 1 CpG each) that were concordant across OLS, mixed-model and Bayesian analyses. Tagged genetic variants accounted for up to 45% of variance in protein levels (for MCP2, 36% of variance alone attributable to 1 polymorphism). Methylation data accounted for up to 46% of variation in protein levels (for CXCL10). Up to 66% of variation in protein levels (for VEGFA) was explained using genetic and epigenetic data combined. We demonstrated putative causal relationships between CD6 and IL18R1 with inflammatory bowel disease and between IL12B and Crohn’s disease.CONCLUSIONS: Our data may aid understanding of the molecular regulation of the circulating inflammatory proteome as well as causal relationships between inflammatory mediators and disease.

Genetically informed, deep-phenotyped biobanks are an important research resource and it is imperative that the most powerful, versatile, and efficient analysis approaches are used. Here, we apply our recently developed Bayesian grouped mixture of regressions model (GMRM) in the UK and Estonian Biobanks and obtain the highest genomic prediction accuracy reported to date across 21 heritable traits. When compared to other approaches, GMRM accuracy was greater than annotation prediction models run in the LDAK or LDPred-funct software by 15% (SE 7%) and 14% (SE 2%), respectively, and was 18% (SE 3%) greater than a baseline BayesR model without single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers grouped into minor allele frequency–linkage disequilibrium (MAF-LD) annotation categories. For height, the prediction accuracy R 2 was 47% in a UK Biobank holdout sample, which was 76% of the estimated h SNP 2 . We then extend our GMRM prediction model to provide mixed-linear model association (MLMA) SNP marker estimates for genome-wide association (GWAS) discovery, which increased the independent loci detected to 16,162 in unrelated UK Biobank individuals, compared to 10,550 from BoltLMM and 10,095 from Regenie, a 62 and 65% increase, respectively. The average χ 2 value of the leading markers increased by 15.24 (SE 0.41) for every 1% increase in prediction accuracy gained over a baseline BayesR model across the traits. Thus, we show that modeling genetic associations accounting for MAF and LD differences among SNP markers, and incorporating prior knowledge of genomic function, is important for both genomic prediction and discovery in large-scale individual-level studies.

We develop a Bayesian model (BayesRR-RC) that provides robust SNP-heritability estimation, an alternative to marker discovery, and accurate genomic prediction, taking 22 seconds per iteration to estimate 8.4 million SNP-effects and 78 SNP-heritability parameters in the UK Biobank. We find that only ≤10% of the genetic variation captured for height, body mass index, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes is attributable to proximal regulatory regions within 10kb upstream of genes, while 12-25% is attributed to coding regions, 32–44% to introns, and 22-28% to distal 10-500kb upstream regions. Up to 24% of all cis and coding regions of each chromosome are associated with each trait, with over 3,100 independent exonic and intronic regions and over 5,400 independent regulatory regions having ≥95% probability of contributing ≥0.001% to the genetic variance of these four traits. Our open-source software (GMRM) provides a scalable alternative to current approaches for biobank data., Improving inference in large-scale genetic data linked to electronic medical record data requires the development of novel computationally efficient regression methods. Here, the authors develop a Bayesian approach for association analyses to improve SNP-heritability estimation, discovery, fine-mapping and genomic prediction.

The molecular factors which control circulating levels of inflammatory proteins are not well understood. Furthermore, association studies between molecular probes and human traits are often performed by linear model-based methods which may fail to account for complex structure and interrelationships within molecular datasets. Therefore, in this study, we perform genome- and epigenome-wide association studies (GWAS/EWAS) on the levels of 70 plasma-derived inflammatory protein biomarkers in healthy older adults (Lothian Birth Cohort 1936; n = 876; Olink® inflammation panel). We employ a Bayesian framework (BayesR+) which can account for issues pertaining to data structure and unknown confounding variables (with sensitivity analyses using ordinary least squares- (OLS) and mixed model-based approaches). We identified 13 SNPs associated with 13 proteins (n = 1 SNP each) concordant across OLS and Bayesian methods. We identified three CpG sites spread across three proteins (n = 1 CpG each) that were concordant across OLS, mixed-model and Bayesian analyses. Tagged genetic variants accounted for up to 45% of variance in protein levels (for MCP2, 36% of variance alone attributable to one polymorphism). Methylation data accounted for up to 46% of variation in protein levels (for CXCL10). Up to 66% of variation in protein levels (for VEGFA) was explained using genetic and epigenetic data combined. We demonstrated putative causal relationships between CD6 and IL18R1 with inflammatory bowel disease, and between IL12B and Crohn’s disease. Our data may aid understanding of the molecular regulation of the circulating inflammatory proteome as well as causal relationships between inflammatory mediators and disease.

Significance Systems biology involves the development of large computational models of biological systems. The radical improvement of systems biology models will necessarily involve the automation of model improvement cycles. We present here a general approach to automating systems biology model improvement. Humans are eukaryotic organisms, and the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae is widely used in biology as a “model” for eukaryotic cells. The yeast diauxic shift is the most studied cellular transformation. We combined multiple software tools with integrated laboratory robotics to execute three semiautomated cycles of diauxic shift model improvement. All the experiments were formalized and communicated to a cloud laboratory automation system (Eve) for execution. The resulting improved model is relevant to understanding cancer, the immune system, and aging., One of the most challenging tasks in modern science is the development of systems biology models: Existing models are often very complex but generally have low predictive performance. The construction of high-fidelity models will require hundreds/thousands of cycles of model improvement, yet few current systems biology research studies complete even a single cycle. We combined multiple software tools with integrated laboratory robotics to execute three cycles of model improvement of the prototypical eukaryotic cellular transformation, the yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) diauxic shift. In the first cycle, a model outperforming the best previous diauxic shift model was developed using bioinformatic and systems biology tools. In the second cycle, the model was further improved using automatically planned experiments. In the third cycle, hypothesis-led experiments improved the model to a greater extent than achieved using high-throughput experiments. All of the experiments were formalized and communicated to a cloud laboratory automation system (Eve) for automatic execution, and the results stored on the semantic web for reuse. The final model adds a substantial amount of knowledge about the yeast diauxic shift: 92 genes (+45%), and 1,048 interactions (+147%). This knowledge is also relevant to understanding cancer, the immune system, and aging. We conclude that systems biology software tools can be combined and integrated with laboratory robots in closed-loop cycles.

Linking epigenetic marks to clinical outcomes improves insight into molecular processes, disease prediction, and therapeutic target identification. Here, a statistical approach is presented to infer the epigenetic architecture of complex disease, determine the variation captured by epigenetic effects, and estimate phenotype-epigenetic probe associations jointly. Implicitly adjusting for probe correlations, data structure (cell-count or relatedness), and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker effects, improves association estimates and in 9,448 individuals, 75.7% (95% CI 71.70-79.3) of body mass index (BMI) variation and 45.6% (95% CI 37.3-51.9) of cigarette consumption variation was captured by whole blood methylation array data. Pathway-linked probes of blood cholesterol, lipid transport and sterol metabolism for BMI, and xenobiotic stimuli response for smoking, showed1.5 times larger associations with95% posterior inclusion probability. Prediction accuracy improved by 28.7% for BMI and 10.2% for smoking over a LASSO model, with age-, and tissue-specificity, implying associations are a phenotypic consequence rather than causal.

1AbstractEpigenetic DNA modification is partly under genetic control, and occurs in response to a wide range of environmental exposures. Linking epigenetic marks to clinical outcomes may provide greater insight into underlying molecular processes of disease, assist in the identification of therapeutic targets, and improve risk prediction. Here, we present a statistical approach, based on Bayesian inference, that estimates associations between disease risk and all measured epigenetic probes jointly, automatically controlling for both data structure (including cell-count effects, relatedness, and experimental batch effects) and correlations among probes. We benchmark our approach in simulation study, finding improved estimation of probe associations across a wide range of scenarios over existing approaches. Our method estimates the total proportion of disease risk captured by epigenetic probe variation, and when we applied it to measures of body mass index (BMI) and cigarette consumption behaviour in 5,101 individuals, we find that 66.7% (95% CI 60.0-72.8) of the variation in BMI and 67.7% (95% CI 58.4-76.9) of the variation in cigarette consumption can be captured by methylation array data from whole blood, independent of the variation explained by single nucleotide polymorphism markers. We find novel associations, with smoking behaviour associated with a methylation probe at the MNDA gene with >95% posterior inclusion probability, which is a myeloid cell nuclear differentiation antigen gene previously implicated as a biomarker for inflammation and non-Hodgkin lymphoma risk. We conduct unique genome-wide enrichment analyses, identifying blood cholesterol, lipid transport and sterol metabolism pathways for BMI, and response to xenobiotic stimulus and negative regulation of RNA polymerase II promoter transcription for smoking, all with >95% posterior inclusion probability of having methylation probes with associations >1.5 times larger than the average. Finally, we improve phenotypic prediction in two independent cohorts by 28.7% and 10.2% for BMI and smoking respectively over a LASSO model. These results imply that probe measures may capture large amounts of variance because they are likely a consequence of the phenotype rather than a cause. As a result, ‘omics’ data may enable accurate characterization of disease progression and identification of individuals who are on a path to disease. Our approach facilitates better understanding of the underlying epigenetic architecture of complex common disease and is applicable to any kind of genomics data.

PMID: 29322933; International audience; Background: Genome-scale metabolic models provide an opportunity for rational approaches to studies of the different reactions taking place inside the cell. The integration of these models with gene regulatory networks is a hot topic in systems biology. The methods developed to date focus mostly on resolving the metabolic elements and use fairly straightforward approaches to assess the impact of genome expression on the metabolic phenotype. Results: We present here a method for integrating the reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks into these metabolic models. We applied our method to a high-dimensional gene expression data set to infer a background gene regulatory network. We then compared the resulting phenotype simulations with those obtained by other relevant methods. Conclusions: Our method outperformed the other approaches tested and was more robust to noise. We also illustrate the utility of this method for studies of a complex biological phenomenon, the diauxic shift in yeast.

Motivation: Oscillations lie at the core of many biological processes, from the cell cycle, to circadian oscillations and developmental processes. Time-keeping mechanisms are essential to enable organisms to adapt to varying conditions in environmental cycles, from day/night to seasonal. Transcriptional regulatory networks are one of the mechanisms behind these biological oscillations. However, while identifying cyclically expressed genes from time series measurements is relatively easy, determining the structure of the interaction network underpinning the oscillation is a far more challenging problem. Results: Here, we explicitly leverage the oscillatory nature of the transcriptional signals and present a method for reconstructing network interactions tailored to this special but important class of genetic circuits. Our method is based on projecting the signal onto a set of oscillatory basis functions using a Discrete Fourier Transform. We build a Bayesian Hierarchical model within a frequency domain linear model in order to enforce sparsity and incorporate prior knowledge about the network structure. Experiments on real and simulated data show that the method can lead to substantial improvements over competing approaches if the oscillatory assumption is met, and remains competitive also in cases it is not. Availability: DSS, experiment scripts and data are available at http://homepages.inf.ed.ac.uk/gsanguin/DSS.zip. Contact: d.trejo-banos@sms.ed.ac.uk Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Planning experiments is a crucial step in successful investigations, which can greatly benefit from computational modeling approaches. Here we consider the problem of designing informative experiments for elucidating the dynamics of biological networks. Our approach extends previously proposed methodologies to the important case where the structure of the network is also uncertain. We demonstrate our approach on a benchmark scenario in plant biology, the circadian clock network of Arabidopsis thaliana, and discuss the different value of three types of commonly used experiments in terms of aiding the reconstruction of the unknown network.