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Background: The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for 10-year overall survival (OS) after resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) based on patient, tumour and treatment characteristics. Methods: Consecutive patients after complete resection of CRLM were included from two centres (1992-2019). A prediction model providing 10-year OS probabilities was developed using Cox regression analysis, including KRAS, BRAF and histopathological growth patterns. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using cross-validation. A web-based calculator was built to predict individual 10-year OS probabilities. Results: A total of 4112 patients were included. The estimated 10-year OS was 30% (95% CI 29 -32). Fifteen patient, tumour and treatment characteristics were independent prognostic factors for 10-year OS; age, gender, location and nodal status of the primary tumour, disease-free interval, number and diameter of CRLM, preoperative CEA, resection margin, extrahepatic disease, KRAS and BRAF mutation status, histopathological growth patterns, perioperative systemic chemotherapy and hepatic arterial infusion pump chemotherapy. The discrimination at 10-years was 0.73 for both centres. A simplified risk score identified four risk groups with a 10-year OS of 57%, 38%, 24%, and 12%. Conclusions: Ten-year OS after resection of CRLM is best predicted with a model including 15 patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics. The web-based calculator can be used to inform patients. This model serves as a benchmark to determine the prognostic value of novel biomarkers. (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

To characterize COVID-19 epidemiology, numerous population-based studies have been undertaken to model the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Less is known about what may drive the probability to undergo testing. Understanding how much testing is driven by contextual or individual conditions is important to delineate the role of individual behavior and to shape public health interventions and resource allocation. In the Val Venosta/Vinschgau district (South Tyrol, Italy), we conducted a population-representative longitudinal study on 697 individuals susceptible to first infection who completed 4,512 repeated online questionnaires at four week intervals between September 2020 and May 2021. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were fitted to investigate associations of self-reported SARS-CoV-2 testing with individual characteristics (social, demographic, and biological) and contextual determinants. Testing was associated with month of reporting, reflecting the timing of both the pandemic intensity and public health interventions, COVID-19-related symptoms (odds ratio, OR:8.26; 95% confidence interval, CI:6.04–11.31), contacts with infected individuals within home (OR:7.47, 95%CI:3.81–14.62) or outside home (OR:9.87, 95%CI:5.78–16.85), and being retired (OR:0.50, 95%CI:0.34-0.73). Symptoms and next within- and outside-home contacts were the leading determinants of swab testing predisposition in the most acute phase of the pandemics. Testing was not associated with age, sex, education, comorbidities, or lifestyle factors. In the study area, contextual determinants reflecting the course of the pandemic were predominant compared to individual sociodemographic characteristics in explaining the SARS-CoV-2 probability of testing. Decision makers should evaluate whether the intended target groups were correctly prioritized by the testing campaign.

Background Radiotherapy (RT) following breast-conserving surgery (BCS) for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) reduces ipsilateral breast event rates in clinical trials. This study assessed the impact of DCIS treatment on a 20-year risk of ipsilateral DCIS (iDCIS) and ipsilateral invasive breast cancer (iIBC) in a population-based cohort. Methods The cohort comprised all women diagnosed with DCIS in the Netherlands during 1989–2004 with follow-up until 2017. Cumulative incidence of iDCIS and iIBC following BCS and BCS + RT were assessed. Associations of DCIS treatment with iDCIS and iIBC risk were estimated in multivariable Cox models. Results The 20-year cumulative incidence of any ipsilateral breast event was 30.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 28.9–32.6) after BCS compared to 18.2% (95% CI 16.3–20.3) following BCS + RT. Women treated with BCS compared to BCS + RT had higher risk of developing iDCIS and iIBC within 5 years after DCIS diagnosis (for iDCIS: hazard ratio (HR)age 3.2 (95% CI 1.6–6.6); HRage ≥ 50 3.6 (95% CI 2.6–4.8) and for iIBC: HRage 2.1 (95% CI 1.4–3.2); HRage ≥ 50 4.3 (95% CI 3.0–6.0)). After 10 years, the risk of iDCIS and iIBC no longer differed for BCS versus BCS + RT (for iDCIS: HRage 0.7 (95% CI 0.3–1.5); HRage ≥ 50 0.7 (95% CI 0.4–1.3) and for iIBC: HRage 0.6 (95% CI 0.4–0.9); HRage ≥ 50 1.2 (95% CI 0.9–1.6)). Conclusion RT is associated with lower iDCIS and iIBC risk up to 10 years after BCS, but this effect wanes thereafter.

Following publication of the original article [1], the authors flagged the following error in the '3. Formula to estimate the contralateral breast cancer risk using PredictCBC-2.0A' section of additional file 1: ‘+ 0.065 × I[Radiotherapy to the breast = yes]’ had been written in place of ‘− 0.065 × I[Radiotherapy to the breast = yes]‘. The file has since been corrected. The authors thank you for reading and apologize for any inconvenience caused.

Summary Background Current prediction tools for breast cancer outcomes are not tailored to the older patient, in whom competing risk strongly influences treatment effects. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction tool for 5-year recurrence, overall mortality, and other-cause mortality for older patients (aged ≥65 years) with early invasive breast cancer and to estimate individualised expected benefits of adjuvant systemic treatment. Methods We selected surgically treated patients with early invasive breast cancer (stage I–III) aged 65 years or older from the population-based FOCUS cohort in the Netherlands. We developed prediction models for 5-year recurrence, overall mortality, and other-cause mortality using cause-specific Cox proportional hazard models. External validation was performed in a Dutch Cancer registry cohort. Performance was evaluated with discrimination accuracy and calibration plots. Findings We included 2744 female patients in the development cohort and 13631 female patients in the validation cohort. Median age was 74·8 years (range 65–98) in the development cohort and 76·0 years (70–101) in the validation cohort. 5-year follow-up was complete for more than 99% of all patients. We observed 343 and 1462 recurrences, and 831 and 3594 deaths, of which 586 and 2565 were without recurrence, in the development and validation cohort, respectively. The area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve at 5 years in the external dataset was 0·76 (95% CI 0·75–0·76) for overall mortality, 0·76 (0·76–0·77) for recurrence, and 0·75 (0·74–0·75) for other-cause mortality. Interpretation The PORTRET tool can accurately predict 5-year recurrence, overall mortality, and other-cause mortality in older patients with breast cancer. The tool can support shared decision making, especially since it provides individualised estimated benefits of adjuvant treatment. Funding Dutch Cancer Foundation and ZonMw.

Introduction Previous studies have shown that available tools such as ‘Adjuvant Online!” are not able to accurately predict the prognosis of patients aged 65 years or older with breast cancer. Furthermore, all available tools predict prognosis in terms of recurrence-free survival or overall survival, whilst the risk of other-cause mortality is often high in the older patient with breast cancer. This is highly relevant as it may influence treatment decisions. Patient characteristics such as comorbidity and various geriatric variables have shown to be predictive for these outcomes and could enhance the precision of prognostic tools for this target population. The objective of this study was to develop a prediction tool for recurrence, survival and other-cause mortality for older patients with breast cancer who received locoregional treatment, with incorporation of patient-, tumor- and geriatric variables. The tool additionally predicts expected benefits of systemic treatment. Methods Data from the large population-based FOCUS cohort was used, consisting of consecutive breast cancer patients in the South-Western part of the Netherlands, diagnosed between 1997 and 2004, aged 65 years and older. It contains detailed information on tumor characteristics, treatment, comorbidity and geriatric parameters. We developed a risk prediction model using a Cox proportional hazards regression model for overall survival and cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models for recurrence and other-cause mortality (defined as mortality without recurrence). The included predictors were derived from the PREDICT tool (consisting of age and various tumor variables), since this tool was previously shown to have the best performance in older adults so far. Predictors were complemented with comorbidity and geriatric variables. Discrimination accuracy was evaluated using time-dependent area under the curve (AUC). The potential annual benefit of chemotherapy was calculated assuming a relative risk of chemotherapy on recurrence of 0.7, derived from data from the most recent updates of the Early Breast Cancer Trialists’ Collaborative Group (EBCTCG). Additional benefit of endocrine treatment will be included in further development of the tool. Results A total of 2,744 patients were included for the initial development. For all patients, 5-year follow-up was complete with a high event-rate including 343 recurrences and 831 total deaths of which 586 without recurrence. The strongest predictors for overall survival and non-recurrence mortality were age (HR = 2.14, 95% CI: 1.89 - 2.43 and HR = 2.87, 95% CI: 2.46 - 3.35, respectively) and dementia (HR = 1.52, 95% CI: 1.16 - 1.99 and HR = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.49 - 2.65, respectively), and for recurrence, nodal status (HR = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.45 - 2.24) and tumor grade (HR = 2.96, 95% CI: 1.88 - 4.66). The time-dependent AUC at 5 years for recurrence-specific and other-cause mortality were 0.78 (95% CI: 0.76 - 0.81), and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.72 - 0.78), respectively. The AUC for overall survival was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.72 - 0.78). External validation is currently being performed in a large dataset retrieved from the national cancer registry (N= 13,631). These results will be presented during the symposium. Conclusion We have developed a model for predicting 5-year recurrence, other-cause mortality and overall survival, including expected benefits of adjuvant treatment, for older patients with breast cancer, with a good discrimination performance within a large-population based cohort. To our knowledge, this is the first model specifically designed for the older population, including competing risk as a predicted outcome and with incorporation of geriatric variables. Citation Format: Willeke van der Plas-Krijgsman, Daniele Giardiello, Hein Putter, Ewout W Steyerberg, Esther Bastiaannet, Anne M Stiggelbout, Simon P Mooijaart, Johanneke EA Portielje, Gerrit J Liefers, Nienke A de Glas. The PORTRET-tool: A prediction tool for older patients with breast cancer that predicts recurrence, survival and other-cause mortality [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2020 San Antonio Breast Cancer Virtual Symposium; 2020 Dec 8-11; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2021;81(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PS6-08.

Previous research has shown that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can be used to stratify women according to their risk of developing primary invasive breast cancer. This study aimed to evaluate the association between a recently validated PRS of 313 germline variants (PRS313) and contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk. We included 56,068 women of European ancestry diagnosed with first invasive breast cancer from 1990 onward with follow-up from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Metachronous CBC risk (N = 1,027) according to the distribution of PRS313 was quantified using Cox regression analyses. We assessed PRS313 interaction with age at first diagnosis, family history, morphology, ER status, PR status, and HER2 status, and (neo)adjuvant therapy. In studies of Asian women, with limited follow-up, CBC risk associated with PRS313 was assessed using logistic regression for 340 women with CBC compared with 12,133 women with unilateral breast cancer. Higher PRS313 was associated with increased CBC risk: hazard ratio per standard deviation (SD) = 1.25 (95%CI = 1.18-1.33) for Europeans, and an OR per SD = 1.15 (95%CI = 1.02-1.29) for Asians. The absolute lifetime risks of CBC, accounting for death as competing risk, were 12.4% for European women at the 10th percentile and 20.5% at the 90th percentile of PRS313. We found no evidence of confounding by or interaction with individual characteristics, characteristics of the primary tumor, or treatment. The C-index for the PRS313 alone was 0.563 (95%CI = 0.547-0.586). In conclusion, PRS313 is an independent factor associated with CBC risk and can be incorporated into CBC risk prediction models to help improve stratification and optimize surveillance and treatment strategies. ispartof: AMERICAN JOURNAL OF HUMAN GENETICS vol:107 issue:5 pages:837-848 ispartof: location:United States status: published

Background: Breast cancer survivors are at risk for contralateral breast cancer (CBC), with the consequent burden of further treatment and potentially less favorable prognosis. We aimed to develop and validate a CBC risk prediction model, and evaluate its applicability for clinical decision-making. Methods: We included data of 132,756 invasive non-metastatic breast cancer patients from 20 studies with 4,682 CBC events and a median follow-up of 8.8 years. We developed a multivariable Fine and Gray prediction model (PredictCBC-1A) including patient, primary tumor, and treatment characteristics, and BRCA1/2 germline mutation status, accounting for the competing risks of death and distant metastasis. We also developed a model without BRCA1/2 mutation status (PredictCBC-1B). Prediction performance was evaluated using calibration and discrimination, calculated by a time-dependent Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of primary breast cancer, and an internal-external cross-validation procedure. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the net benefit of the model to quantify clinical utility. Results: In the multivariable model, BRCA1/2 germline mutation status, family history and systemic adjuvant treatment showed the strongest associations with CBC risk. The AUC of PredictCBC-1A was 0.63 (95% prediction interval (PI) at 5 years: 0.52–0.74; at 10 years: 0.53–0.72). Calibration in-the-large was -0.13 (95%PI: -1.62–1.37) and the calibration slope was 0.90 (95%PI: 0.73–1.08). The AUC of Predict-1B at 10 years was 0.59 (95% PI: 0.52–0.66); calibration was slightly lower. Decision curve analysis for preventive contralateral mastectomy showed potential clinical utility of PredictCBC-1A between thresholds of 4-10% 10-year CBC risk for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and non-carriers. Conclusions: We developed a reasonably calibrated model to predict the risk of CBC in women of European-descent, however, prediction accuracy was moderate. Our model shows potential for improved risk counseling, but decision regarding contralateral preventive mastectomy, especially in the general breast cancer population, remains challenging. Citation Format: Daniele Giardiello, Ewout W Steyerberg, Michael Hauptmann, Muriel A Adank, Agnes Jager, Hester OA Oldenburg, Maartje J Hooning, Marjanka K Schmidt, Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Prediction and clinical utility of a contralateral breast cancer risk model [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2019 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2019 Dec 10-14; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2020;80(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-07-12.

We aimed to assess contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk in patients with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) compared with invasive breast cancer (BC). Women diagnosed with DCIS (N = 28,003) or stage I–III BC (N = 275,836) between 1989 and 2017 were identified from the nationwide Netherlands Cancer Registry. Cumulative incidences were estimated, accounting for competing risks, and hazard ratios (HRs) for metachronous invasive CBC. To evaluate effects of adjuvant systemic therapy and screening, separate analyses were performed for stage I BC without adjuvant systemic therapy and by mode of first BC detection. Multivariable models including clinico-pathological and treatment data were created to assess CBC risk prediction performance in DCIS patients. The 10-year cumulative incidence of invasive CBC was 4.8% for DCIS patients (CBC = 1334). Invasive CBC risk was higher in DCIS patients compared with invasive BC overall (HR = 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.04–1.17), and lower compared with stage I BC without adjuvant systemic therapy (HR = 0.87; 95% CI = 0.82–0.92). In patients diagnosed ≥2011, the HR for invasive CBC was 1.38 (95% CI = 1.35–1.68) after screen-detected DCIS compared with screen-detected invasive BC, and was 2.14 (95% CI = 1.46–3.13) when not screen-detected. The C-index was 0.52 (95% CI = 0.50–0.54) for invasive CBC prediction in DCIS patients. In conclusion, CBC risks are low overall. DCIS patients had a slightly higher risk of invasive CBC compared with invasive BC, likely explained by the risk-reducing effect of (neo)adjuvant systemic therapy among BC patients. For support of clinical decision making more information is needed to differentiate CBC risks among DCIS patients.

BACKGROUND: Three tools are currently available to predict the risk of contralateral breast cancer (CBC). We aimed to compare the performance of the Manchester formula, CBCrisk, and PredictCBC in patients with invasive breast cancer (BC). METHODS: We analyzed data of 132,756 patients (4682 CBC) from 20 international studies with a median follow-up of 8.8 years. Prediction performance included discrimination, quantified as a time-dependent Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of primary BC, and calibration, quantified as the expected-observed (E/O) ratio at 5 and 10 years and the calibration slope. RESULTS: The AUC at 10 years was: 0.58 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.57-0.59) for CBCrisk; 0.60 (95% CI 0.59-0.61) for the Manchester formula; 0.63 (95% CI 0.59-0.66) and 0.59 (95% CI 0.56-0.62) for PredictCBC-1A (for settings where BRCA1/2 mutation status is available) and PredictCBC-1B (for the general population), respectively. The E/O at 10 years: 0.82 (95% CI 0.51-1.32) for CBCrisk; 1.53 (95% CI 0.63-3.73) for the Manchester formula; 1.28 (95% CI 0.63-2.58) for PredictCBC-1A and 1.35 (95% CI 0.65-2.77) for PredictCBC-1B. The calibration slope was 1.26 (95% CI 1.01-1.50) for CBCrisk; 0.90 (95% CI 0.79-1.02) for PredictCBC-1A; 0.81 (95% CI 0.63-0.99) for PredictCBC-1B, and 0.39 (95% CI 0.34-0.43) for the Manchester formula. CONCLUSIONS: Current CBC risk prediction tools provide only moderate discrimination and the Manchester formula was poorly calibrated. Better predictors and re-calibration are needed to improve CBC prediction and to identify low- and high-CBC risk patients for clinical decision-making. ispartof: BREAST CANCER RESEARCH AND TREATMENT vol:181 issue:2 pages:423-434 ispartof: location:Netherlands status: published

Background The aim was to study the impact of comorbidities and age on breast cancer mortality, taking into account competing causes of death. Subjects, Materials, and Methods Cohort analysis of Dutch and Belgian patients with postmenopausal, early hormone receptor-positive breast cancer included in the Tamoxifen and Exemestane Adjuvant Multinational (TEAM) trial between 2001 and 2006. This is a randomized controlled trial of patients who had completed local treatment with curative intent and were randomized to receive exemestane for 5 years, or sequential treatment of tamoxifen followed by exemestane for a duration of 5 years. Patients were categorized by number of comorbidities (no comorbidities, 1–2 comorbidities, and >2 comorbidities) and age ( Results Overall, 3,159 patients were included, of which 2,203 (69.7%) were aged 2 comorbidities, p < .001). Conclusion Older patients without comorbidities have a higher risk of dying due to breast cancer than younger counterparts, even when taking into account higher competing mortality, while use of chemotherapy in this group was low. These findings underline the need to take into account comorbidities, age, and competing mortality in the prognosis of breast cancer for accurate decision making.

Background The risk of developing metachronous contralateral breast cancer (CBC) is a recurrent topic at the outpatient clinic. We aimed to provide CBC risk estimates of published patient, pathological, and primary breast cancer (PBC) treatment-related factors. Methods PubMed was searched for publications on factors associated with CBC risk. Meta-analyses were performed with grouping of studies by mutation status (i.e., BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2 c.1100delC), familial cohorts, and general population-based cohorts. Results Sixty-eight papers satisfied our inclusion criteria. Strong associations with CBC were found for carrying a BRCA1 (RR = 3.7; 95%CI:2.8–4.9), BRCA2 (RR = 2.8; 95%CI:1.8–4.3) or CHEK2 c.1100delC (RR = 2.7; 95%CI:2.0–3.7) mutation. In population-based cohorts, PBC family history (RR = 1.8; 95%CI:1.2–2.6), body mass index (BMI) ≥30 kg/m2 (RR = 1.5; 95%CI:1.3–1.9), lobular PBC (RR = 1.4; 95%CI:1.1–1.8), estrogen receptor-negative PBC (RR = 1.5; 95%CI:1.0–2.3) and treatment with radiotherapy Conclusions Mutation status, family history, and PBC treatment are key factors for CBC risk. Age at PBC diagnosis, BMI, lobular histology and hormone receptor status have weaker associations and should be considered in combination with key factors to accurately predict CBC risk.

Melanoma is a highly heterogeneous tumor for which recent evidence supports a model of dynamic stemness. Melanoma cells might temporally acquire tumor-initiating properties or switch from a status of tumor-initiating cells (TICs) to a more differentiated one depending on the tumor context. However, factors driving these functional changes are still unknown. We focused on the role of cyto/chemokines in shaping TICs isolated directly from tumor specimens of two melanoma patients, namely Me14346S and Me15888S. We analyzed the secretion profile of TICs and of their corresponding melanoma differentiated cells and we tested the ability of cyto/chemokines to influence TIC self-renewal and differentiation. We found that TICs, grown in vitro as melanospheres, had a complex secretory profile as compared to their differentiated counterparts. Some factors, such as CCL-2 and IL-8, also produced by adherent melanoma cells and melanocytes did not influence TIC properties. Conversely, IL-6, released by differentiated cells, reduced TIC self-renewal and induced TIC differentiation while IL-10, produced by Me15888S, strongly promoted TIC self-renewal through paracrine/autocrine actions. Complete neutralization of IL-10 activity by gene silencing and antibody-mediated blocking of the IL-10Rα was required to sensitize Me15888S to IL-6-induced differentiation. For the first time these results show that functional heterogeneity of melanoma could be directly influenced by inflammatory and suppressive soluble factors, with IL-6 favoring TIC differentiation, and IL-10 supporting TIC self-renewal. Thus, understanding the tumor microenvironment (TME) role in modulating melanoma TIC phenotype is fundamental to identifying novel therapeutic targets to achieve long-lasting regression of metastatic melanoma.

This study determined the seroprevalence of Encephalitozoon cuniculi in pet rabbits from north-central Italy and correlated it with data (age and clinical signs) obtained from private veterinary practitioners. During the period 2007 to 2010, 826 pet rabbit sera were collected and tested using carbon immunoassay. In total, 310 out of 826 rabbits (37.53%, 95% CI: 34.23 to 40.94) displayed clinical signs consistent with infection, whereas the remaining 516 animals presented for wellness examination or to be vaccinated. The results were analyzed according to age, serological status, and the presence or absence of clinical signs. Seropositive results were observed in 59.56% (95% CI: 56.12 to 62.92) of the examined animals. Seroprevalence in the clinically ill rabbits was 70.65% (95% CI: 65.18 to 75.59), much higher than in healthy animals, which showed a prevalence of 52.91% (95% CI: 48.5 to 57.27). Clinical signs were classified into 4 groups: nonvestibular neurologic signs, vestibular signs (including head tilt), renal failure, and ocular lesions. Odds of animals presenting with clinical disease signs were higher in seropositive rabbits (odds ratio=2.14, 95% CI: 1.59 to 2.9), and this association was particularly true for vestibular signs (odds ratio=4.1, 95% CI: 2.48 to 7.13). The prevalence values were different with regard to age, with a peak in 3- to 4-year-old animals. Average titers in both healthy and clinically ill rabbits at various ages were different; rabbits with overt disease signs had higher titers when very young ( E. cuniculi in pet rabbits in Italy, underlying growing interest and concern among veterinarians and pet owners regarding this organism.

Background The potential impact of diagnostic delays on patients’ outcomes is a debated issue in pediatric oncology and discordant results have been published so far. We attempted to tackle this issue by analyzing a prospective series of 351 consecutive children and adolescents with solid malignancies using innovative statistical tools. Methods To address the nonlinear complexity of the association between symptom interval and overall survival (OS), a regression tree algorithm was constructed with sequential binary splitting rules and used to identify homogeneous patient groups vis-a-vis functional relationship between diagnostic delay and OS. Results Three different groups were identified: group A, with localized disease and good prognosis (5-year OS 85.4%); group B, with locally or regionally advanced, or metastatic disease and intermediate prognosis (5-year OS 72.9%), including neuroblastoma, Wilms tumor, nonrhabdomyosarcoma soft tissue sarcoma, and germ cell tumor; and group C, with locally or regionally advanced, or metastatic disease and poor prognosis (5-year OS 45%), including brain tumors, rhabdomyosarcoma, and bone sarcoma. The functional relationship between symptom interval and mortality risk differed between the three subgroups, there being no association in group A (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.96), a positive linear association in group B (HR: 1.48), and a negative linear association in group C (HR: 0.61). Conclusions Our analysis suggests that at least a subset of patients can benefit from an earlier diagnosis in terms of survival. For others, intrinsic aggressiveness may mask the potential effect of diagnostic delays. Based on these findings, early diagnosis should remain a goal for pediatric cancer patients.

Summary Mycobacterium microti has recently been described as the causative agent of tuberculosis-like lesions in wild boar (Sus scrofa), a reservoir specie of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) in some European Mediterranean ecosystem. Through a five-year survey on tuberculosis in free-living wild boars, the epidemiological trend of M. microti infections and the host and population risk factors linked with its occurrence were described. Retropharyngeal and mandibular lymph nodes of 3041 hunted wild boars from six different districts were macroscopically inspected. The sex and age of each animal were registered, as well as the animal abundance in each district. Lesions compatible with tuberculosis (190) were collected and analysed using a gyrB PCR–RFLP assay. M. microti was identified directly in 99 tissue samples (Prev = 3.26%; 95% CI: 2.67–3.97%), while neither Mycobacterium bovis, nor other members of the MTBC were detected. The probability of being M. microti positive showed spatio-temporal variability, with 26% of increase of risk of being infected for each year. Moreover, a positive effect of wild boar abundance and age on the prevalence was detected. The generalized increase in the European wild boar population, coupled with its sensitivity to M. microti infection, poses a future concern for the identification and management of MTBC members in wild boar.

The progressive decline in the hare population across Europe has been associated with the occurrence of European brown hare syndrome (EBHS), a highly contagious disease considered endemic in all European countries. This study aimed to evaluate the in-field temporal dynamics of European brown hare syndrome virus (EBHSV) infection in wild European brown hares (Lepus europaeus) and to test the influence of population density on EBHS seroprevalence. A total of 512 blood samples were collected from free ranging hares captured for restocking in seven different areas of the province of Brescia (Northern Italy) during seven consecutive years (2006–2013) and tested using a competitive ELISA. A generalized linear mixed model estimated the yearly effects of population density on EBHS prevalence. Of the 512 tested, 344 (67.2 %) tested positive for EBHSV antibodies, with the annual seroprevalence ranging from 94.3 to 35.8 %. The prevalence was 3.303 times higher in areas with a density of over 15 hares/km2 and declined over the years. The results indicate the ongoing transmission of the virus in the tested brown hare population. Since the eradication of EBHS in a wild population is not feasible, a strategy aimed at promoting the endemic stability of the virus through density-dependent mechanisms could be applied; however, this seems more difficult in practice than in theory and would most likely require a very high density of brown hares.

IF 16.265; International audience; BACKGROUND:The available prognostic models for overall survival (OS) in patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma (UC) have been derived from clinical trial populations of cisplatin-treated patients.OBJECTIVE:To develop a new model based on real-world patients.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:Individual patient-level data from 29 centers were collected, including metastatic UC and first-line cisplatin- or carboplatin-based chemotherapy administered between January 2006 and January 2011.INTERVENTION:First-line, platinum-based, combination chemotherapy.OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:The population was randomly split into a development and a validation cohort. Generalized boosted regression modelling was used to screen out irrelevant variables and address multivariable analyses. Two nomograms were built to estimate OS probability, the first based on baseline factors and platinum agent, the second incorporating objective response (OR). The performance of the above nomograms and that of other available models was assessed. We plotted decision curves to evaluate the clinical usefulness of the two nomograms.RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS:A total of 1020 patients were analyzed (development: 687, validation: 333). In a platinum-stratified Cox model, significant variables for OS were performance status (p

In this study, we investigated the dynamics of Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae infections in 66 pig farms, with different production systems (one-, two-, and three-site systems), and considered different risk factors. Serological assay was used to detect serum antibodies against M. hyopneumoniae and real time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed to detect M. hyopneumoniae DNA in tracheobronchial swabs. Results demonstrated that M. hyopneumoniae infection status was predominantly influenced by the age of the animals and the type of production system. Infection rates were higher in older animals and the prevalence was higher in the one- and two-site systems than in the three-site systems. Dynamics of infection by RT-PCR showed that earlier M. hyopneumoniae infection on one-site farms occurs earlier, while on two- and three-site farms occurs later but spreads faster, suggesting that contact between animals of different age favors the transmission.

The potential impact of diagnostic delays on patients' outcomes is a debated issue in pediatric oncology and discordant results have been published so far. We attempted to tackle this issue by analyzing a prospective series of 351 consecutive children and adolescents with solid malignancies using innovative statistical tools.To address the nonlinear complexity of the association between symptom interval and overall survival (OS), a regression tree algorithm was constructed with sequential binary splitting rules and used to identify homogeneous patient groups vis-à-vis functional relationship between diagnostic delay and OS.Three different groups were identified: group A, with localized disease and good prognosis (5-year OS 85.4%); group B, with locally or regionally advanced, or metastatic disease and intermediate prognosis (5-year OS 72.9%), including neuroblastoma, Wilms tumor, non-rhabdomyosarcoma soft tissue sarcoma, and germ cell tumor; and group C, with locally or regionally advanced, or metastatic disease and poor prognosis (5-year OS 45%), including brain tumors, rhabdomyosarcoma, and bone sarcoma. The functional relationship between symptom interval and mortality risk differed between the three subgroups, there being no association in group A (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.96), a positive linear association in group B (HR: 1.48), and a negative linear association in group C (HR: 0.61).Our analysis suggests that at least a subset of patients can benefit from an earlier diagnosis in terms of survival. For others, intrinsic aggressiveness may mask the potential effect of diagnostic delays. Based on these findings, early diagnosis should remain a goal for pediatric cancer patients.

Objectives Approximately one-third of the metastatic germ cell tumors (GCT) in patients are classified as intermediate-risk metastatic GCT, and available guidelines recommend the same treatment of poor-risk cases. Yet the prognosis of these patients is heterogeneous, and consequently refining the intensity of treatment is warranted. We aimed to address the heterogeneity of this category by providing a proof of principle for reclassification attempt. Patients and methods Data on consecutive patients with intermediate-risk metastatic GCT and who received treatment at Fondazione INT Milano in the time frame between February 1980 and March 2014 were collected. Cox regression analyses were done, evaluating potential prognostic factors for overall survival (OS, primary end point) to first-line therapy. Each factor was evaluated in a multivariable model. Recursive partitioning was performed to define prognostic risk groups. Results A total of 224 patients were suitable for the present analysis. Median age was 26 years (interquartile range: 22–31), 11 patients (4.9%) had a retroperitoneal primary tumor, 6 yielded seminomatous histology, 85 (37.9%) had lung metastases, and 58 (25.9%) had bulky (i.e.,≥10 cm) retroperitoneal lymph nodes. Patients received cisplatin, bleomycin, and etoposide (PEB, n = 199) or vinblastine (PVB, n = 23); however, 2 patients received other treatments. Median follow-up was 135 months (interquartile range: 81–223). Globally, 5-year progression-free survival and OS rates were 72.8% (95% CI: 67.1–79.0) and 86.2% (81.7–91.0), respectively. In the multivariable model for OS, elevated alfa fetoprotein (AFP) level was the only significant prognostic factor (hazard ratio = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.12–1.96). The 2 separate prognostic groups with differential OS outcomes were identified based on the cutoff level of 6,200 IU/ml. The 10-year OS rate was 55.6% (95% CI: 36.6–84.3), and it was 86.7% (95% CI: 82.0–91.7) for those with AFP levels more than (n = 19, 8.5%) and less than (n = 205, 91.5%) the cutoff, respectively. Conclusions A small fraction of patients with highly elevated AFP levels have an OS approximating the poor prognostic category, whereas most of them are close to good-risk cases. This might have implications to select outlier patients for clinical trials and molecular characterization.

Background The use of home parenteral nutrition (HPN) in incurable cancer patients is extremely varied across different countries and institutions. In order to assess the clinical impact implied, we previously conducted a survey of incurable cancer patients receiving HPN, which shows that survival was markedly affected by Karnofsky performance status (KPS), tumor spread, Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) and tumor site. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram incorporating the above factors for survival prediction. Patients and methods We gathered a series of 579 patients, all receiving HPN, which was randomly split into a training and a testing sample. Using Cox proportional hazard regression modeling, a nomogram was built in the training sample, in order to estimate median survival or survival probability at 3 and 6 months according to individual patient characteristics. The nomogram performance was then verified in the testing sample. Results In the training sample, median survival was 3.2 (95% CI 3.0–3.7) months. GPS, KPS, tumor site and spread were confirmed to be significant prognostic factors. A significant interaction was also shown between the site and spread while weight loss (WL), adjusted for body mass index, failed to provide any substantial prognostic contribution. In the testing sample, nomogram performance was good in terms of calibration and discreet regarding discrimination. Conclusion With the growing availability of new oncological treatments and their tendency to transform the trajectory of the advanced cancer into a chronic condition characterized by progressive WL and poor nutrients intake, an increasing number of patients are expected to receive HPN. In such a setting, tools for predicting the survival outcome may play a role toward personalized medicine and for investigating novel experimental therapies. Our proposed nomogram is a step forward in this direction but needs to be made stronger in order to definitely have clinical utility.

Background: Salmonella spp. have been isolated from a wide range of wild animals. Opportunistic wild carnivores such as red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and badgers (Meles meles) may act as environmental indicators or as potential sources of salmonellosis in humans. The present study characterizes Salmonella spp. isolated from the intestinal contents of hunted or dead red foxes (n = 509) and badgers (n = 17) in northern Italy. Findings: Thirty-one strains of Salmonella belonging to 3 Salmonella enterica subspecies were isolated. Fourteen different serovars of S. enterica subsp. enterica were identified, among which were serovars often associated with human illness. Conclusions: Wild opportunistic predators can influence the probability of infection of both domestic animals and humans through active shedding of the pathogen to the environment. The epidemiological role of wild carnivores in the spread of salmonellosis needs to be further studied.

e12053Background: Several studies on tumor samples taken from patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for triple negative (TN) breast cancer (BC) have demonstrated that presence and amount of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) are a potential biomarker of prognostic and predictive significance. Luminal B subtype breast cancer is underrepresented in NAC and TILs trials. We retrospectively investigated the potential prognostic and predictive role of TILs in Luminal B subtype BC in this therapeutic context. Methods: In a consecutive mono-institutional case series we retrospectively identified Luminal B subtype BC not having a pathological complete response after standard NAC with anthracycline and taxane containing regimens. A total of 39 cases were evaluated for inflammatory infiltrate (CD45) and TILs (CD3, CD4, CD8) both on the initial tumor biopsy and on definitive surgical samples. Correlation was investigated between TILs and standard clinicopathological features, residual cancer burden (R...

e15572 Background: About one third of patients with metastatic GCT are classified as IRGCT, and available guidelines recommend the same treatment of poor risk cases. Yet the prognosis of these pati...

380 Background: IRGCT comprises a consistent category of metastatic patients (pts), and information on the recommended management of these pts should be updated. Usually they enter clinical trials for poor prognosis GCT. We aimed to address the heterogeneity of this category and to identify clinical prognostic factors for sub-stratification of pts. Methods: Data on consecutive pts with IRGCT and who received treatment at Fondazione INT Milano in the time-frame 02/1980-03/2014 were collected. Cox regression analyses were done evaluating potential prognostic factors for overall survival (OS, primary endpoint) to first-line therapy. Each factor was evaluated in a multivariable model. An exploratory OS comparison between outlier groups was undertaken with Kaplan Meier curves and logrank test. Results: Data on 181 pts were collected. Median age was 27 yrs (IQR 22-32), 10 pts had a retroperitoneal (RP) primary, 6 had pure seminoma. 72 (39.8%) had lung metastases and 54 (32.3%) bulky (i.e. ≥10cm) RP lymph-nodes (LN). Pts received cisplatin, bleomycin and etoposide (PEB, n=156) or vinblastine (PVB, n=23), 2 other treatments. Median follow up was 173 months (IQR: 87-237). Globally, 5-y PFS and OS were 66.8% (95%CI: 60.1-74.2) and 83.3% (77.8-89.2). However, 5-y OS for pts with AFP 5,000-10,000 IU/ml (N=19) was 61.8% (95%CI: 43.0-88.7) while it was 89.1% (95%CI: 81.2-97.7) for nonseminomas with elevated LDH only (N=57) and similar for elevated HCG only (N=22); overall p