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We introduce a proof of concept to parametrise the unresolved subgrid scale of sea-ice dynamics with deep learning techniques. Instead of parametrising single processes, a single neural network is trained to correct all model variables at the same time. This data-driven approach is applied to a regional sea-ice model that accounts exclusively for dynamical processes with a Maxwell elasto-brittle rheology. Driven by an external wind forcing in a 40 km×200 km domain, the model generates examples of sharp transitions between unfractured and fully fractured sea ice. To correct such examples, we propose a convolutional U-Net architecture which extracts features at multiple scales. We test this approach in twin experiments: the neural network learns to correct forecasts from low-resolution simulations towards high-resolution simulations for a lead time of about 10 min. At this lead time, our approach reduces the forecast errors by more than 75 %, averaged over all model variables. As the most important predictors, we identify the dynamics of the model variables. Furthermore, the neural network extracts localised and directional-dependent features, which point towards the shortcomings of the low-resolution simulations. Applied to correct the forecasts every 10 min, the neural network is run together with the sea-ice model. This improves the short-term forecasts up to an hour. These results consequently show that neural networks can correct model errors from the subgrid scale for sea-ice dynamics. We therefore see this study as an important first step towards hybrid modelling to forecast sea-ice dynamics on an hourly to daily timescale.

We present our vision on how to advance short-term sea-ice forecasting with deep learning, based on two specific examples. To incorporate multifractal, anisotropic, and stochastic-like processes in sea ice, we envision the combination of geophysical sea-ice models together with neural networks in a hybrid modelling setup. On the one hand, deep learning can surrogate computationally expensive sea-ice models, like neXtSIM. This not only allows us to speed-up simulations by orders of magnitude, but also to improve forecasts of sea-ice thickness by up to 35 % compared to persistence on a daily timescale. On the other hand, deep learning can parametrize subgrid-scale processes in sea-ice models and correct persisting model errors, improving the forecasts by up to 70 % across all model variables on an hourly timescale. Based on these results, we conclude that hybrid modelling with deep learning can lead to major advancements in sea-ice forecasting., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)

The ability of numerical sea ice models to reproduce localized deformation features associated with fracture processes is key for an accurate representation of the ice dynamics and of dynamically coupled physical processes in the Arctic and Antarctic. Equally key is the capacity of these models to minimize the numerical diffusion stemming from the advection of these features to ensure that the associated strong gradients persist in time, without the need to unphysically re-inject energy for re-localization. To control diffusion and improve the approximation quality, we present a new numerical core for the dynamics of sea ice that is based on higher-order finite-element discretizations for the momentum equation and higher-order discontinuous Galerkin methods for the advection. The mathematical properties of this core are discussed, and a detailed description of an efficient shared-memory parallel implementation is given. In addition, we present different numerical tests and apply the new framework to a benchmark problem to quantify the advantages of the higher-order discretization. These tests are based on Hibler's viscous–plastic sea ice model, but the implementation of the developed framework in the context of other physical models reproducing a strong localization of the deformation is possible.

Poster contribution to the "11th Sea Ice data assimilation workshop in Oslo". This poster summarizes the work currently under discussion for "The Cryosphere"., This work is a contribution to the project SASIP (grant no. 353), funded by Schmidt Futures – a philanthropic initiative that seeks to improve societal outcomes through the development of emerging science and technologies.

International audience; This paper presents a first implementation of a new rheological model for sea ice on geophysical scales. This continuum model, called Maxwell elasto-brittle (Maxwell-EB), is based on a Maxwell constitutive law, a progressive damage mechanism that is coupled to both the elastic modulus and apparent viscosity of the ice cover and a Mohr–Coulomb damage criterion that allows for pure (uniaxial and biaxial) tensile strength. The model is tested on the basis of its capability to reproduce the complex mechanical and dynamical behaviour of sea ice drifting through a narrow passage. Idealized as well as realistic simulations of the flow of ice through Nares Strait are presented. These demonstrate that the model reproduces the formation of stable ice bridges as well as the stoppage of the flow, a phenomenon occurring within numerous channels of the Arctic. In agreement with observations, the model captures the propagation of damage along narrow arch-like kinematic features, the discontinuities in the velocity field across these features dividing the ice cover into floes, the strong spatial localization of the thickest, ridged ice, the presence of landfast ice in bays and fjords and the opening of polynyas downstream of the strait. The model represents various dynamical behaviours linked to an overall weakening of the ice cover and to the shorter lifespan of ice bridges, with implications in terms of increased ice export through narrow outflow pathways of the Arctic.

In recent years, analyses of available ice buoy and satellite data have revealed the strong heterogeneity and intermittency of the deformation of sea ice and have demonstrated that the viscous-plastic rheology widely used in current climate models and operational modelling platforms does not simulate adequately the drift, deformation and mechanical stresses within the ice pack.A new alternative rheological framework named ''Maxwell-Elasto-Brittle” (Maxwell-EB) is therefore developed in the view of reproducing more accurately the drift and deformation of the ice cover in continuum sea ice models at regional to global scales. The model builds on an elasto-brittle framework used for ice and rocks. A viscous-like relaxation term is added to a linear-elastic constitutive relationship together with an effective viscosity that evolves with the local level of damage of the material, like its elastic modulus. This framework allows for part of the internal stress to dissipate in large, permanent deformations along the faults/leads once the material is highly damaged while retaining the memory of small, elastic deformations over undamaged areas. A healing mechanism is also introduced, counterbalancing the effects of damaging over large time scales.The numerical scheme for the Maxwell-EB model is based on finite elements and variational methods. The equations of motion are cast in the Eulerian frame and discontinuous Galerkin methods are implemented to handle advective processes.Idealized simulations without advection are first presented. These demonstrate that the Maxwell-EB rheological framework reproduces the main characteristics of sea ice mechanics and deformation : the strain localization, the anisotropy and intermittency of deformation and the associated scaling laws. The successful representation of these properties translates into very large gradients within all simulated fields. Idealized numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the amount of numerical diffusion associated with the advection of these extreme gradients in the model and investigate other limitations of the numerical scheme. First large-deformation simulations are carried in the context of a Couette flow experiment, which allow a comparison with the result of a similar laboratory experiment performed on fresh-water ice. The model reproduces part of the mechanical behaviour observed in the laboratory. Comparison of the numerical and experimental results allow identifying some numerical and physical limitations of the model in the context of large-deformation and laboratory-scale simulations. Finally, the Maxwell-EB framework is implemented in the context of modelling the drift and deformation of sea ice on geophysical scales. Idealized simulations of the flow of sea ice through a narrow channel are presented. The model simulates the propagation of damage along arch-like features and successfully reproduces the formation of stable ice bridges.; De récentes analyses statistiques de données satellitales et de bouées dérivantes ont révélé le caractère hautement hétérogène et intermittent de la déformation de la banquise Arctique, démontrant de ce fait que le schéma rhéologique visco-plastique utilisé traditionnellement en modélisation climatique et opérationnelle ne simule pas adéquatement le comportement dynamique des glaces ainsi que les efforts mécaniques en leur sein.Un cadre rhéologique alternatif, baptisé "Maxwell-Élasto-Fragile" (Maxwell-EB) est donc développé dans le but de reproduire correctement la dérive et la déformation des glaces dans les modèles continus de la banquise à l'échelle régionale et globale. Le modèle se base en partie sur un cade de modélisation élasto-fragile utilisé pour les roches et la glace. Un terme de relaxation visqueuse est ajouté à la relation constitutive d'élasticité linéaire ainsi qu'une viscosité effective, ou "apparente", laquelle évolue en fonction du niveau d'endommagement local du matériel simulé, comme son module d'élasticité. Ce cadre rhéologique permet la dissipation partielle des contraintes internes par le biais de déformations permanentes, possiblement grandes, le long de failles (ou "leads") lorsque le matériel est fortement endommagé ainsi que la conservation de la mémoire des contraintes associées aux déformations élastiques dans les zones où le matériel reste relativement peu endommagé.The schéma numérique du modèle Maxwell-EB est basé sur des méthodes de calcul variationnel et par éléments finis. Une représentation Eulérienne des équations du mouvement est utilisée et des méthodes dites Galerkin discontinues sont implémentées pour le traitement des processus d'advection.Une première série de simulations idéalisées et sans advection est présentée, lesquelles démontrent que la rhéologie Maxwell-Élasto-Fragile reproduit les caractéristiques principales du comportement mécanique de la banquise, c'est-à-dire la localisation spatiale, l'anisotropie et l'intermittence de la déformation ainsi que les lois d'échelle qui en découlent. La représentation adéquate de ces propriétés de la déformation se traduit par la présence de très forts gradients au sein des champs de contrainte, de déformation et du niveau d'endommagement simulés par le modèle. Des tests visant à évaluer la diffusion numérique découlant de l'advection de ces gradients extrêmes ainsi qu'à identifier certaines contraintes numériques du modèle sont ensuite présentés. De premières simulations en grandes déformations, incluant les processus d'advection, sont réalisées, lesquelles permettent une comparaison aux résultats d'une expérience de Couette annulaire sur de la glace fabriquée en laboratoire. Le modèle reproduit en partie le comportement mécanique observé. Par ailleurs, les différences entre les résultats des simulations et ceux obtenus en laboratoire permettent d'identifier certaines limitations, numériques et physiques, du modèle en grandes déformations. Finalement, le modèle rhéologique est utilisé pour modéliser la dérive et la déformation des glaces à l'échelle de la banquise Arctique. Des simulations idéalisées de l'écoulement de glace dans un chenal étroit sont présentées. Le modèle simule une propagation localisée de l'endommagement, définissant des failles en forme d'arche, et la formation de ponts de glace stables.

L’objectif principal du présent mémoire réside dans l’exploration des liens concomitants existant entre les trois dimensions de l’épuisement professionnel telles que définies par Maslach (1981) et la consommation de substances psychoactives, plus précisément au niveau de la consommation épisodique excessive et hebdomadaire à risque d’alcool et de la consommation de médicaments psychotropes. À partir d’un échantillon composé de 1809 travailleurs provenant de 83 milieux de travail québécois, des profils-types correspondant à des formes particulières de comorbidité de santé mentale au travail sont identifiés grâce à la méthode d’analyse en classes latentes. Ainsi quatre profils-types sont dégagés: un premier regroupant les individus dits «sains», dont les scores aux différentes dimensions de l’épuisement professionnel sont faibles et dont la consommation de substances psychoactives est modérée; deux autres correspondant à des formes intermédiaires de risques; et un quatrième rassemblant des travailleurs dits «fragiles» dont les scores pour chacune des dimensions de l’épuisement professionnel se situent dans le quintile le plus élevé et dont les probabilités de consommation de substances psychoactives sont grandes. De plus, cette recherche s’est penchée sur l’identification de facteurs de risque et de protection associés à chacun des profils-types. À cet effet, les résultats des analyses corroborent la plupart des associations retrouvées au sein de la littérature quant aux facteurs du travail (composantes des modèles du stress professionnel de Karasek et Theorell (1990) ainsi que de Siegrist (1990)), hors travail (statut matrimonial, obligations parentales, revenu du ménage) et certaines caractéristiques individuelles (âge et genre). De faibles récompenses et un fort degré de surinvestissement de la part de l’individu se révèlent être des facteurs de risque particulièrement significatifs pour les formes intermédiaires et à risque de comorbidité de la santé mentale au travail. Dans une moindre mesure, une faible utilisation des compétences, des demandes psychologiques élevées, un soutien social inadéquat et le jeune âge expliquent une part de la variation observée entre les différents profils-types. Enfin, les résultats soutiennent une conceptualisation tridimensionnelle de l’épuisement professionnel., The main objective of this master is to explore the concurrent associations between two phenomena related to stress, burnout and the use of psychoactive substance. Particularly, this research focuses on the three dimensions of burnout as defined by Maslach (1981), on two hazardous alcohol patterns consumption, binge drinking and weekly alcohol abuse, and on psychotropic drugs utilization. From a sample of 1809 workers issued from 83 workplaces in Quebec, typical profiles corresponding to different forms of comorbidity are identified with the use of latent class analysis. Four typical profiles were identified. The first one referred to “healthy” individuals who presented the lowest scores for the three dimensions of burnout without misuse of any psychoactive substances. Two more groups corresponded to intermediate health risk forms of comorbidity patterns. The fourth one was composed of “fragile” workers, with the highest burnout scores and the highest probabilities for misusing alcohol and psychotropic drugs. In addition, this research identified some risk and protective factors associated with each profiles. Multivariate analyses results corroborated most associations found in the occupational stress literature on organizational work conditions (model components of occupational stress developed by Karasek and Theorell (1990) and Siegrist (1996)), non-work determinants (marital status, parental status and household income), and on individual characteristics (age and gender). Low rewards and high overcommitment appeared as particularly significant risk factors for the intermediate and severe forms of comorbidity. Low skills utilization, low social support at work, high psychological demands and a young age explained to a lesser extent part of the variation observed between the comorbidity profiles. Results supported a three-dimensional conceptualization of burnout.