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The influence of atmospheric circulation conditions on pollen concentrations of two taxons (Betula and Alnus) in Wroclaw, Poland, for the years 2005–2014 was analysed. Pollen concentration was analysed separately for twenty circulation types that were determined using objective classification. The results indicate the atmospheric circulation conditions favourable for both low and high pollen concentrations over Central Europe. Pollen concentrations vary significantly according to circulation types. The highest pollen concentrations for both taxons are typical for warm, sunny, and dry anticyclonic circulation types with anticyclone in the lower and upper troposphere, especially for types with advection from the SW. The lowest pollen concentrations are observed for cold, wet, and cloudy cyclonic types with advection from the northern sectors. There is also a positive and statistically significant trend in the frequency of circulation types favourable for high concentrations of Betula and Alnus.

In this work, the HYSPLIT model was used to reproduce birch pollen concentrations in Poland for the years 2015 and 2016, where there was significant variation in terms of pollen concentrations and start/end dates of the pollen season. The analysis of pollen observations showed that the seasonal pollen integral (SPIn) was low in 2015 with a shorter season compared to 2016. In 2016, SPIn was unusually high. The HYSPLIT model simulation, with a one-hour temporal resolution, was conducted during the birch pollen season (from March to May) for 2015 and 2016. Meteorological data were obtained from the WRF model. The birch coverage map of the European Forest Institute was used. The emission, introduced to the model, covered Central Europe with a resolution of 0.3° × 0.3°. The results were compared to data from 11 observation stations in Poland. The measured birch pollen concentrations for 2015 were overestimated by HYSPLIT at 8 of the 11 stations (normalized mean bias/NMB from 0.13 to 2.53) and underestimated for three stations (NMB from − 0.44 to − 0.15). For 2016, the model highly underestimated the pollen concentrations, with NMB ranging from − 0.45 to − 0.93. In general, the results show that the model can resolve the main peaks of pollen concentrations, which is a step forward in the application of the HYSPLIT model for birch pollen forecasting over Poland. We suggest the application of methods that can reduce the bias of temperature such as meteorological data assimilation or bias correction, which could improve calculation of the start of emissions and consequently the start of the pollen season as well as pollen concentrations.

Introduction Despite the known role of pollen allergens in causing allergy symptoms in sensitized individuals, there are few publications investigating the relationship between pollen exposure in different regions and the prevalence of inhalant allergy. Aim To assess the association between the prevalence of allergic rhinitis and asthma and the degree of exposure to pollen in various regions of Poland. Material and methods Completed questionnaires of 9,443 subjects living in four urban centres (Wroclaw, Katowice, Warsaw, Bialystok), collected within part of the ECAP project, were analyzed. Children aged 6-7 (n = 2,278), adolescents aged 13-14 (n = 2,418), and adults aged 20-44 (n = 4,747) constituted 24.2%, 25.6% and 50.3% of the respondents, respectively. The clinical part (including skin prick tests, an assay of Timothy grass-specific IgE), was attended by 24% of the respondents. Data from 6-year pollen monitoring served to characterize birch and grass pollen seasons. Results We found insignificant negative associations between the duration of birch pollen season and the prevalence of declared allergic rhinitis and asthma during the season across all age groups. There were insignificant inverse associations between the number of days with above-threshold and high grass pollen concentrations, total grass pollen count and the prevalence of declared allergic rhinitis and asthma during the season across all age groups. Associations noted in the clinical part were also non-significant; however, these trends were not uniform across the age groups. Conclusions Our findings do not confirm the hypothesis of a positive association between pollen exposure and the prevalence of allergic rhinitis and asthma.

In recent years, allergies due to airborne pollen allergens have shown an increasing trend, along with the severity of allergic symptoms in most industrialized countries, while synergism with other common atmospheric pollutants has also been identified as affecting the overall quality of citizenly life. In this study, we propose the state-of-the-art WRF-Chem model, which is a complex Eulerian meteorological model integrated on-line with atmospheric chemistry. We used a combination of the WRF-Chem extended towards birch pollen, and the emission module based on heating degree days, which has not been tested before. The simulations were run for the moderate season in terms of birch pollen concentrations (year 2015) and high season (year 2016) over Central Europe, which were validated against 11 observational stations located in Poland. The results show that there is a big difference in the model’s performance for the two modelled years. In general, the model overestimates birch pollen concentrations for the moderate season and highly underestimates birch pollen concentrations for the year 2016. The model was able to predict birch pollen concentrations for first allergy symptoms (above 20 pollen m−3) as well as for severe symptoms (above 90 pollen m−3) with probability of detection at 0.78 and 0.68 and success ratio at 0.75 and 0.57, respectively for the year 2015. However, the model failed to reproduce these parameters for the year 2016. The results indicate the potential role of correcting the total seasonal pollen emission in improving the model’s performance, especially for specific years in terms of pollen productivity. The application of chemical transport models such as WRF-Chem for pollen modelling provides a great opportunity for simultaneous simulations of chemical air pollution and allergic pollen with one goal, which is a step forward for studying and understanding the co-exposure of these particles in the air.

In this study we analyzed daily pollen concentrations of Alnus spp. and Betula spp. from Worcester, UK and Wrocław, Poland. We analyzed seasonality, annual pollen index and footprint areas for the observed pollen concentrations by using the trajectory model hybrid single particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory (HYSPLIT). We examined 10 years of data during the period 2005–2014 and found substantial differences in the seasonality, pollen indices and footprint areas. For both genera, concentrations in Wrocław are in general much higher, the seasons are shorter and therefore more intense than in Worcester. The reasons appear to be related to the differences in overall climate between the two sites and more abundant sources in Poland than in England. The footprint areas suggest that the source of the pollen grains are mainly local trees but appear to be augmented by remote sources, in particular for Betula spp. but only to a small degree for Alnus spp. For Betula spp., both sites appear to get contributions from areas in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium, while known Betula spp. rich regions in Russia, Belarus and Scandinavia had a very limited impact on the pollen concentrations in Worcester and Wrocław. Substantial and systematic variations in pollen indices are seen for Betula spp. in Wrocław with high values every second year while a similar pattern is not observed for Worcester. This pattern was not reproduced for Alnus spp.

In the original publication of the article, the SPIn values in Tables 1 and 4 were incorrectly published. The correct Tables 1 and 4 are given below.

The aim of the study was to investigate the variability of Alnus and Corylus pollen concentrations at two stations located in the city of Wroclaw, Poland—one at the city centre and the other 4 km from the city centre. Our goal was to compare measurements from these stations in relation to meteorology and land cover. We used Spearman’s correlation coefficient to investigate any dependence between meteorological factors and pollen concentration. Additionally, to check the relation between the direction of inflow of air masses and pollen concentration, we calculated the backward trajectories using the HYSPLIT model. The results have shown that despite the short distance between the stations, the characteristic of the pollen season is different for both stations (i.a. date of start and end of pollen season, duration of the season). The Spearman’s correlation coefficient between relative humidity and air temperature and pollen concentration was found to be statistically significant. The backward trajectories calculated with HYSPLIT suggested a different origin of air masses between stations for high-concentration episodes in the case of Alnus. Our study has shown that analysis of meteorological conditions and influence of air transport into pollen concentration makes it possible to ascertain the reasons for differences in pollen level at these two stations, both of which are located in the same climatological domain. The study also shows that the aerobiological condition may change significantly over a short distance, which is a major challenge, for example, for pollen emission, transport, and concentration modelling.

We have investigated the relationship between the inflow of air masses and the ragweed pollen concentration in SW Poland (Wrocław) for a 10-year period of 2005–2014. The HYSPLIT trajectory model was used to verify whether episodes of high concentrations can be related to regions outside of the main known ragweed centres in Europe, like Pannonian Plain, northern Italy and Ukraine. Furthermore, we used two different meteorological data sets (the global GDAS data set and from the WRF mesoscale model; the meteorological parameters were: U and V wind components, temperature and relative humidity) into HYSPLIT to evaluate the influence of meteorological input on calculated trajectories for high concentration ragweed episodes. The results show that the episodes of high pollen concentration (above 20 pm−3) represent a great part of total recorded ragweed pollen in Wrocław, but occur rarely and not in all years. High pollen episodes are connected with air masses coming from south and south-west Europe, which confirms the existence of expected ragweed centres but showed that other centres near Wrocław are not present. The HYSPLIT simulations with two different meteorological inputs indicated that footprint studies on ragweed benefit from a higher resolution meteorological data sets. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10453-017-9471-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

We analyse the impact of ground-based data assimilation to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model on parameters relevant for birch pollen emission calculations. Then, we use two different emission databases (BASE - no data assimilation, OBSNUD - data assimilation for the meteorological model) in the chemical transport model and evaluate birch pollen concentrations. Finally, we apply a scaling factor for the emissions (BASE and OBSNUD), based on the ratio between simulated and observed seasonal pollen integral (SPIn) to analyse its impact on birch concentrations over Central Europe. Assimilation of observational data significantly reduces model overestimation of air temperature, which is the main parameter responsible for the start of pollen emission and amount of released pollen. The results also show that a relatively small bias in air temperature from the model can lead to significant differences in heating degree days (HDD) value. This may cause the HDD threshold to be attained several days earlier/later than indicated from observational data which has further impact on the start of pollen emission. Even though the bias for air temperature was reduced for OBSNUD, the model indicates a start for the birch pollen season that is too early compared to observations. The start date of the season was improved at two of the 11 stations in Poland. Data assimilation does not have a significant impact on the season's end or SPIn value. The application of the SPIn factor for the emissions results in a much closer birch pollen concentration level to observations even though the factor does not improve the start or end of the pollen season. The post-processing of modelled meteorological fields, such as the application of bias correction, can be considered as a way to further improve the pollen emission modelling.