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Estimating signals underlying noisy data is a significant problem in statistics and engineering. Numerous estimators are available in the literature, depending on the observation model and estimation criterion. This paper introduces a framework that estimates the shape of the unknown signal and the signal itself. The approach utilizes a peak-persistence diagram (PPD), a novel tool that explores the dominant peaks in the potential solutions and estimates the function's shape, which includes the number of internal peaks and valleys. It then imposes this shape constraint on the search space and estimates the signal from partially-aligned data. This approach balances two previous solutions: averaging without alignment and averaging with complete elastic alignment. From a statistical viewpoint, it achieves an optimal estimator under a model with both additive noise and phase or warping noise. We also present a computationally-efficient procedure for implementing this solution and demonstrate its effectiveness on several simulated and real examples. Notably, this geometric approach outperforms the current state-of-the-art in the field.

Gaussian graphical models typically assume a homogeneous structure across all subjects, which is often restrictive in applications. In this article, we propose a weighted pseudo-likelihood approach for graphical modeling which allows different subjects to have different graphical structures depending on extraneous covariates. The pseudo-likelihood approach replaces the joint distribution by a product of the conditional distributions of each variable. We cast the conditional distribution as a heteroscedastic regression problem, with covariate-dependent variance terms, to enable information borrowing directly from the data instead of a hierarchical framework. This allows independent graphical modeling for each subject, while retaining the benefits of a hierarchical Bayes model and being computationally tractable. An efficient embarrassingly parallel variational algorithm is developed to approximate the posterior and obtain estimates of the graphs. Using a fractional variational framework, we derive asymptotic risk bounds for the estimate in terms of a novel variant of the $\alpha$-R\'{e}nyi divergence. We theoretically demonstrate the advantages of information borrowing across covariates over independent modeling. We show the practical advantages of the approach through simulation studies and illustrate the dependence structure in protein expression levels on breast cancer patients using CNV information as covariates.

We consider the off-policy evaluation (OPE) problem in contextual bandits, where the goal is to estimate the value of a target policy using the data collected by a logging policy. Most popular approaches to the OPE are variants of the doubly robust (DR) estimator obtained by combining a direct method (DM) estimator and a correction term involving the inverse propensity score (IPS). Existing algorithms primarily focus on strategies to reduce the variance of the DR estimator arising from large IPS. We propose a new approach called the Doubly Robust with Information borrowing and Context-based switching (DR-IC) estimator that focuses on reducing both bias and variance. The DR-IC estimator replaces the standard DM estimator with a parametric reward model that borrows information from the 'closer' contexts through a correlation structure that depends on the IPS. The DR-IC estimator also adaptively interpolates between this modified DM estimator and a modified DR estimator based on a context-specific switching rule. We give provable guarantees on the performance of the DR-IC estimator. We also demonstrate the superior performance of the DR-IC estimator compared to the state-of-the-art OPE algorithms on a number of benchmark problems., Comment: 23 pages, 6 figures, manuscript under review

While the problem of estimating a probability density function (pdf) from its observations is classical, the estimation under additional shape constraints is both important and challenging. We introduce an efficient, geometric approach for estimating pdfs given the number of its modes. This approach explores the space of constrained pdf's using an action of the diffeomorphism group that preserves their shapes. It starts with an initial template, with the desired number of modes and arbitrarily chosen heights at the critical points, and transforms it via: (1) composition by diffeomorphisms and (2) normalization to obtain the final density estimate. The search for optimal diffeomorphism is performed under the maximum-likelihood criterion and is accomplished by mapping diffeomorphisms to the tangent space of a Hilbert sphere, a vector space whose elements can be expressed using an orthogonal basis. This framework is first applied to shape-constrained univariate, unconditional pdf estimation and then extended to conditional pdf estimation. We derive asymptotic convergence rates of the estimator and demonstrate this approach using a synthetic dataset involving speed distribution for different traffic flow on Californian driveways., Comment: 31 pages, Initial version. Presented at IISA 2017, Shape Constrained Methods Workshp, BIRS,2018

We introduce a novel two-step approach for estimating a probability density function (pdf) given its samples, with the second and important step coming from a geometric formulation. The procedure involves obtaining an initial estimate of the pdf and then transforming it via a warping function to reach the final estimate. The initial estimate is intended to be computationally fast, albeit suboptimal, but its warping creates a larger, flexible class of density functions, resulting in substantially improved estimation. The search for optimal warping is accomplished by mapping diffeomorphic functions to the tangent space of a Hilbert sphere, a vector space whose elements can be expressed using an orthogonal basis. Using a truncated basis expansion, we estimate the optimal warping under a (penalized) likelihood criterion and, thus, the optimal density estimate. This framework is introduced for univariate, unconditional pdf estimation and then extended to conditional pdf estimation. The approach avoids many of the computational pitfalls associated with classical conditional-density estimation methods, without losing on estimation performance. We derive asymptotic convergence rates of the density estimator and demonstrate this approach using both synthetic datasets and real data, the latter relating to the association of a toxic metabolite on preterm birth., Comment: Submitted to a journal currently. Sections rewritten and arranged differently from previous version. Some errors in proofs and notations corrected. Section on Bivariate density estimation and Irrelevant predictors removed. Performance of conditional density estimation compared to a different package with different simulation examples