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A series of webinars and panel discussions were conducted on the topic of the evolving role of humans in weather prediction and communication, in recognition of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the AMS. One main theme that arose was the inevitability that new tools using artificial intelligence will improve data analysis, forecasting, and communication. We discussed what tools are being created, how they are being created, and how the tools will potentially affect various duties for operational meteorologists in multiple sectors of the profession. Even as artificial intelligence increases automation, humans will remain a vital part of the forecast process as that process changes over time. Additionally, both university training and professional development must be revised to accommodate the evolving forecasting process, including addressing the need for computing and data skills (including artificial intelligence and visualization), probabilistic and ensemble forecasting, decision support, and communication skills. These changing skill sets necessitate that both the U.S. Government’s Meteorologist General Schedule 1340 requirements and the AMS standards for a bachelor’s degree need to be revised. Seven recommendations are presented for student and forecaster preparation and career planning, highlighting the need for students and operational meteorologists to be flexible lifelong learners, acquire new skills, and be engaged in the changes to forecast technology in order to best serve the user community throughout their careers. The article closes with our vision for the ways that humans can maintain an essential role in weather prediction and communication, highlighting the interdependent relationship between computers and humans.

BackgroundPeople with chronic pain report feelings of uncertainty and unpredictability around their future pain. A pain-forecasting model could provide important information to support individuals to manage their daily pain and improve their quality of life. To be useful, the model should be developed with people living with chronic pain. We conducted Patient and Public Involvement (PPI) work, with the aim of this PPI to design the content of a pain-forecasting model by (1) learning participants’ priorities in the features of pain provided by a pain forecast and (2) understanding the benefits that participants perceive they would gain from such a forecast.MethodsA focus group of 12 participants identified potential features, benefits and drawbacks of a pain forecast. In a survey, participants with chronic pain (n= 148) prioritised the identified pain features and perceived benefits.ResultsFocus group participants identified anticipatory anxiety and fears around data-sharing as potential drawbacks. Survey respondents prioritised forecasting of pain flares (68%) and fluctuations in pain severity (64%). Specific priorities about pain flares were the timing of the onset and the severity. Of those surveyed, 75% would use a future pain forecast and 80% perceived making plans (e.g. shopping, social) as a benefit.ConclusionsFor people with chronic pain, the timing of the onset of pain flares, the severity of pain flares and fluctuations in pain severity were prioritised as being key features of a pain forecast, and making plans was prioritised as being a key benefit.Plain English SummaryChronic pain is a symptom of many long-term health conditions. People with chronic pain have reported that the severity of their pain is both uncertain and unpredictable. To combat this, we want to build a pain forecast, to predict future pain severity. We hypothesise that a pain forecast would reduce pain-related uncertainty and improve quality of life. It is important that a pain forecast provides useful information to people living with chronic pain. Therefore, this work aimed to understand why participants might use a forecast, and what they would want to see in a pain forecast.A focus group was conducted to identify features, benefits and drawbacks of a pain forecast. A survey was then conducted to prioritise the features and benefits. Participants of the focus group highlighted concerns around data-sharing and potential anxiety about knowing when pain might happen. Survey participants prioritised a forecast that provided information about pain flares (periods of increased pain severity) and fluctuations in pain severity. The key perceived benefit of a forecast was the ability to make plans (such as shopping and social plans).

Nine tornado outbreaks (days with three or more tornadoes) have occurred in the United Kingdom from quasi-linear convective systems in the 16 years between 2004 and 2019. Of the nine outbreaks, eight can be classified into two archetypes: type 1 and type 2. Simulations of each archetype were performed to determine vortex genesis mechanisms. In a type 1 event, a vortex sheet broke down into near-equally spaced misovortices, whereas in a type 2 event, disorganized, elongated cyclonic–anticyclonic couplets evolved into a small number of misovortices. The assessment of Rayleigh's and Fjörtoft's instability criteria, along with misovortices having a wavelength of about 7.5 times the width of the shear zone, implied horizontal shearing instability (HSI) was the initial mechanism for the amplification of perturbations along the vortex sheet in the type 1 event. Vorticity-tendency analysis also revealed near-equally spaced localized horizontal advection maxima prior to the growth of perturbations in the type 1 event, further reinforcing HSI as a plausible mechanism. Deformation was not strong enough to suppress vortex growth. In contrast, the type 2 event did not satisfy either criteria. Parcels acquired vertical vorticity differently dependent on the location and the height that they entered the misovortex. In the type 1 event, parcels entering the misovortex at lower heights experienced varying magnitudes of stretching and tilting, whereas tilting was considerably stronger at greater heights. In the type 2 event, parcels entering the misovortex from the leading edge of the misovortex acquired the majority of their vertical vorticity via both tilting and stretching, and parcels entering the misovortex from the trailing edge acquired the majority of their vertical vorticity via stretching. These results suggest two possible mechanisms for misovortex genesis in UK tornado outbreaks: type 1 where HSI initiates the vortices and type 2 that form from vorticity couplets along the front not formed from HSI.

Introduction DeRidder's burst stimulation design has become a key spinal cord stimulation (SCS) waveform because it reduces the intensity of pain as well as its associated emotional distress. The brain pathways underlying these outcomes may also allow for the effects of stimulation to carry over after stimulation is turned off, making it amenable to intermittent application. Here, the utility of intermittently cycled burst was evaluated using data from two large real-world prospective studies (TRIUMPH, REALITY). Materials and methods Subjects used intermittent dosing in a 1:3 ratio (30 sec on, 90 sec off; N = 100) in TRIUMPH and 1:12 ratio in REALITY (30-sec on, 360-sec off; N = 95) for six months. Pain intensity (0-10 numeric rating scale), pain-related emotions on the pain catastrophizing scale (PCS), and physical function on PROMIS questionnaires were compared with preimplant baseline ratings and by group. Results In both groups, mean pain intensity decreased by nearly 50% relative to baseline, PCS scores significantly decreased, and physical function improved. Importantly, no differences between the 1:3 and 1:12 groups were identified. A high proportion, 80% and 77% of the 1:3 and 1:12 groups, respectively, were considered responders on a multiple measures. No adverse events were associated with intermittent stimulation. Discussion Intermittent cycling of burst SCS lowers the overall electric charge delivered to the spinal cord and preserves battery consumption, without compromising pain relief and associated symptoms.

Monthly Weather Review, one of the oldest continuously published meteorological journals in the world, publishes its 150th volume this year. In January 1873, the U.S. War Department’s Army Signal Service began producing this monthly report summarizing weather across the United States. Its first issue consisted of a one-page narrative of weather conditions and storms and one chart depicting tracks of low pressure centers during that month. In 1891, Monthly Weather Review continued as a government publication with the transfer of the nation’s weather service from the military to the newly established U.S. Weather Bureau. Over time and sometimes erratically, it grew into a scientific journal. In 1974, Monthly Weather Review was transferred to the American Meteorological Society, who continues to publish it to this day (although a 2003 proposal might have ended it). This Historical Review discusses some of the journal’s history and impact, as well as its legacy. This review also compiles for the first time a complete list of Monthly Weather Review editors. The research published within Monthly Weather Review has included highly cited, ground-breaking articles on weather and climate phenomena (e.g., extratropical and tropical cyclones, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Madden–Julian oscillation), general circulation modeling, and numerical weather prediction. The data published in the early issues have been used—and continue to be used to this day—for a variety of applied research and historical analysis purposes. The composition and content of Monthly Weather Review have changed over the past century and a half, continuing to evolve with the modern publishing landscape, with color figures at no additional cost, open-access articles, open data, and, in the near future, embedded figure animations.

Because many viral respiratory diseases show seasonal cycles, weather conditions could affect the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Although many studies pursued this possible link early in the pandemic, their results were inconsistent. Here, we assembled 158 quantitative empirical studies examining the link between weather and COVID-19. A metaregression analysis was performed on their 4793 correlation coefficients to explain these inconsistent results. We found four principal findings. First, 80 of the 158 studies did not state the time lag between infection and reporting, rendering these studies ineffective in determining the weather–COVID-19 relationship. Second, the research outcomes depended on the statistical analysis methods employed in each study. Specifically, studies using correlation tests produced outcomes that were functions of the geographical locations of the data from the original studies, whereas studies using linear regression produced outcomes that were functions of the analyzed weather variables. Third, Asian countries had more positive associations for air temperature than other regions, possibly because the air temperature was undergoing its seasonal increase from winter to spring during the rapid outbreak of COVID-19 in these countries. Fourth, higher solar energy was associated with reduced COVID-19 spread, regardless of statistical analysis method and geographical location. These results help to interpret the inconsistent results and motivate recommendations for best practices in future research. These recommendations include calculating the effects of a time lag between the weather and COVID-19, using regression analysis models, considering nonlinear effects, increasing the time period considered in the analysis to encompass more variety of weather conditions and to increase sample size, and eliminating multicollinearity between weather variables. Significance Statement Many respiratory viruses have seasonal cycles, and COVID-19 may, too. Many studies have tried to determine the effects of weather on COVID-19, but results are often inconsistent. We try to understand this inconsistency through statistics. For example, half of the 158 studies we examined did not account for the time lag between infection and reporting a COVID-19 case, which would make these studies flawed. Other studies showed that more COVID-19 cases occurred at higher temperatures in Asian countries, likely because the season was changing from winter to spring as the pandemic spread. We conclude with recommendations for future studies to avoid these kinds of pitfalls and better inform decision-makers about how the pandemic will evolve in the future.

Large hail (greater than 2 cm in diameter) can cause devastating damage to crops and property, and can even cause loss of life. Because hail reports are often collected by individual countries, constructing a European-wide large-hail climatology has been challenging to date. However, the European Severe Storm Laboratory’s European Severe Weather Database provides the only pan-European dataset for severe convective storms. The database is comprised of 62,053 large-hail reports from 40 C.E. to September 2020, yet its characteristics have not been evaluated. Thus, the purpose of this study is to evaluate this database for the purposes of constructing a climatology of large hail. For the period 2000–2020, large-hail reports are most prominent in June, whereas large-hail days are most common in July. Large hail is mostly reported between 1300–1900 local time, a consistent pattern since 2010. The intensity, as measured by maximum hail size, shows decreasing frequency with increasing hailstone diameter, and no change over the 20-year period. The quality of reports by country varies, with the most complete reporting being from central European countries. These results suggest that despite its short record, many indications are that the dataset represents some reliable aspects of European large-hail climatology, albeit with some limitations.

Agrometeorological services are a subset of climate services targeted to support farmers' tactical and strategic decisions, with the potential to support farmers' capacity to cope with climate variability and change, as well as strengthen their resilience toward climatic risks. However, the effectiveness of such services is often limited by inadequate and unsuitable means of communication with farmers. Therefore, in recent years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and partners have focussed their efforts on improving communication through these services. At the European Meteorological Society (EMS) Annual Meeting in September 2022, a workshop on effective communication of agrometeorological services was held as a hybrid side event, with the aim of answering the question: “How can we deliver efficient and effective agrometeorological services”? The workshop was a joint endeavour of Met Éireann, the International Society of Biometeorology, the EMS Media and Communication Committee, the Slovenian Environment Agency, the Slovenian Meteorological Society, and the S. W. Tromp Foundation. The aim of this workshop was to advance better communication of services to the agriculture sector as a basis for promoting adaptive strategies for weather and climate change, which would enable sufficient food production at present and in the future. The workshop also provided an opportunity for transdisciplinary discussions between national meteorological and hydrological services, universities, research institutes, private companies, and the WMO. The topics discussed at the workshop included learning about exemplar agrometeorological services at various national hydrometeorological services, strengthening communication of agrometeorological services to end-users, improving data and information sharing, and educating end-users. The workshop resulted in a list of recommendations for the future.

Objectives To assist in assessment of therapy risks and benefits of targeted drug delivery (TDD) for chronic nonmalignant pain using registry data on product performance, adverse events, and elective device replacement. Materials and Methods The Product Surveillance Registry (PSR) (NCT01524276) is an ongoing prospective, long‐term, multicenter registry enrolling consented patients implanted with an intrathecal drug delivery system. Patients are followed prospectively with participating investigators providing pump and catheter performance data for events related to the device, procedure, and therapy. Event descriptions include patient symptoms and outcomes. Results Registry data from the 4646 patients (59.7% female) treated with TDD for chronic, nonmalignant pain at 59 registry sites between August 2003 and October 2019, with over 17,000 patient‐years (4646 patients with 44 months average follow‐up), were analyzed. Registry discontinuation was largely (46.2% of discontinued patients) due to study site closure and patient death; exit due to an adverse or device event was limited to 10.2%. Conclusions Treating chronic pain with escalating doses of strong systemic opioids often leads to inconsistent pain control, impaired function, untenable side effects, and reduced quality of life and this practice has contributed to the current opioid crisis in the United States. TDD has been an available therapy for these patients for greater than 30 years, and data from this real‐world registry offer supporting evidence to the long‐term safety of this therapy as an alternative to systemic opioids, as well as insights into patient acceptance and satisfaction.

A study of 500-hPa cutoff lows in central Chile during 1979–2017 was conducted to contrast cutoff lows associated with the lowest quartile of daily precipitation amounts (LOW25) with cutoff lows associated with the highest quartile (HIGH25). To understand the differences between low- and high-precipitation cutoff lows, daily precipitation records, radiosonde observations, and reanalyses were used to analyze the three ingredients necessary for deep moist convection (instability, lift, and moisture) at the eastern and equatorial edge of these lows. Instability was generally small, if any, and showed no major differences between LOW25 and HIGH25 events. Synoptic-scale ascent associated with Q-vector convergence also showed little difference between LOW25 and HIGH25 events. In contrast, the moisture distribution around LOW25 and HIGH25 cutoff lows was different, with a moisture plume that was more defined and more intense equatorward of HIGH25 cutoff lows as compared with LOW25 cutoff lows where the moisture plume occurred poleward of the cutoff low. The presence of the moisture plume equatorward of HIGH25 cutoff lows may have contributed to the shorter persistence of HIGH25 events by providing a source for latent-heat release when the moisture plume reached the windward side of the Andes. Indeed, whereas 48% of LOW25 cutoff lows persisted for longer than 72 h, only 25% of HIGH25 cutoff lows did, despite both systems occurring mostly during the rainy season (May–September). The occurrence of an equatorial moisture plume on the eastern and equatorial edge of cutoff lows is fairly common during high-impact precipitation events, and this mechanism could help to explain high-impact precipitation where the occurrence of cutoff lows and moisture plumes is frequent.

Headlines from newspapers and websites scream out the soundbite that anthropogenic climate change is causing more extreme weather. “Climate change means more extreme weather – here’s what the UK can expect if emissions keep increasing.” “Why extreme weather is the new normal.” “Man-made climate change had role in some of 2015’s extreme weather.” For better or worse, the potential and deadly serious effects of anthropogenic climate change are often communicated through this soundbite. This soundbite has become popular with scientists and the media, but neglects important caveats. What do we mean by “extreme weather”? Where does this extreme weather occur on Earth? Will all types of extreme weather be affected equally? Have we already witnessed changes in extreme weather? Is anthropogenic climate change responsible? How will these changes affect society? Thus, the seemingly simple question of how does climate change affect extreme weather becomes much more complicated upon further reflection.No doubt these questions may be obscured or even unasked in the modern media landscape, but that does not mean that they aren’t important questions to ask. In this talk, I will present the science behind how different extreme weather events may – or may not – change in the future as the global climate warms. Specifically, I will present results from studies on tropical cyclones and tornadoes, and I will consider the factors that have affected, and will affect, their changes in intensity, frequency, and spatial distribution on Earth. I will also discuss the relatively recent approach called climate-change attribution where the role of anthropogenic climate change in individual extreme weather events can be quantitatively addressed. By the end of this talk, I hope to give the audience the tools to evaluate with a critical eye media stories about climate change and extreme weather.

The belief that weather influences people’s health has been prevalent for millennia. Recent studies on the relationship between weather and pain for those who suffer from chronic pain remain indeterminate, with some studies finding strong effects and others finding no effects; most studies face limitations to their study design or dataset size. To address these limitations, a U.K.-wide smartphone study Cloudy with a Chance of Pain was conducted over 15 months with 10,584 citizen scientists who suffer from chronic pain, producing the largest dataset both in duration and number of participants. Compared to other similar citizen-science studies, our retention of participants was substantially better, with 15% still entering data nearly every day after 200 days. This presentation describes the study, the data collection, and results of this project, revealing the strongest evidence to date of the effect of weather upon pain in weather-sensitive individuals. Analysis of the dataset using synoptic climatology and compositing revealed the daily weather associated with a prevalence of high pain and low pain across the population. Specifically, our results indicate that the top 10% of days with a high percentage of participants (about 20%) experiencing a pain event (represented here by a +1 change or greater in their pain level on a 5-point scale; referred to as a high-pain day) were associated with below-normal pressure, above-normal humidity, higher precipitation rate, and stronger wind. In contrast, the bottom 10% of days with a small percentage of participants (about 10%) experiencing a pain event (a low-pain day) were associated with above-normal pressure, below-normal humidity, lower precipitation rate, and weaker wind. Thus, these synoptic weather patterns support the beliefs of many participants who said that low pressure—and its accompanying weather—was associated with a pain event. S. W. Tromp Foundation Award Winner 2020: Outstanding Achievement in Biometeorology

Tor Bergeron was a key member of the Bergen School of Meteorology that developed some of the most influential contributions to synoptic analysis in the twentieth century: airmass analysis, polar-front theory, and the Norwegian cyclone model. However, the eventual success of these so-called Bergen methods of synoptic analysis was not guaranteed. Concerns and criticisms of the methods—in part from the lack of referencing to prior studies, overly simplified conceptual models, and lack of real data in papers by J. Bjerknes and Solberg—were inhibiting worldwide adoption. Bergeron’s research output in the 1920s was aimed at addressing these concerns. His doctoral thesis, written in German, was published as a journal article in Geofysiske Publikasjoner in 1928. Here, an accessible and annotated English translation is provided along with a succinct overview of this seminal study. Major interlaced themes of Bergeron’s study were the first comprehensive description of the Bergen methods: a vigorous defense of cyclogenesis as primarily a lower-tropospheric process as opposed to an upper-tropospheric–lower-stratospheric one; a nuanced explanation of the assertion that meteorology constituted a distinct and special scientific discipline; and, very understandably, a thorough account of Bergeron’s own contributions to the Bergen School. His contributions included identifying how deformation results in frontogenesis and frontolysis, classifying the influence of aerosols on visibility, and explaining the role of the ambient conditions in the onset of drizzle as opposed to rain showers—a distinction that led the formulation of the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen process.

Objectives Targeted Drug Delivery (TDD) is commonly used for the management of patients with intractable pain. Past studies have proven efficacy in pain relief and reduction in opioid use and cost‐effectiveness in long‐term pain management. There are few studies investigating satisfaction among patients with implanted pain pumps that are managed with targeted intrathecal medications. Material and Methods Patients in a single medical practice implanted with pain pumps for relief of intractable pain were identified and extracted from the electronic health record (EHR). Six hundred and ten active TDD patients were identified and an anonymous 18‐question survey was administered to determine satisfaction with TDD therapy. During an 18‐month period from May 2018 to August 2019, patients were invited to take a satisfaction survey. Both primary and secondary outcomes were reported as proportions; P

A dataset of drylines within a region of the southern Great Plains was constructed to investigate the large-scale environments associated with the initiation of deep moist convection. Drylines were identified using NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center surface analyses for all April, May, and June days 2006–15. Doppler radar and visible and infrared satellite imagery were used to identify convective drylines, where deep, moist convection was deemed to have been associated with the dryline circulation. Approximately 60% of drylines were convective, with initiation most frequently occurring between 2000 and 2100 UTC. Composite synoptic analyses were created of 179 convective and 104 nonconvective dryline days. The composites featured an upper-level long-wave trough to the west of the Rockies and a ridge extending across the northern and eastern United States. At the surface, the composites featured a broad surface cyclone over western Texas and southerly flow over the south-central states. Convective drylines featured more amplified upper-level flow, associated with a deeper trough in the western United States and a stronger downstream ridge than nonconvective drylines up to 5 days preceding a dryline event. By the day of a dryline event, the convective composite features greater low-level specific humidity and higher CAPE than the nonconvective composite. These results demonstrate that synoptic-scale processes over several days help create conditions conducive to deep, moist convection along the dryline.

Nine tornado outbreaks (days with three or more tornadoes) have occurred in the United Kingdom from quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) in the 16 years between 2004 and 2019. Of the nine outbreaks, eight can be classified into two synoptic categories: type 1 and type 2. Synoptic categories are derived from the location of the parent extratropical cyclone and the orientation of the surface front associated with the QLCS. Environmental differences between the categories are assessed using ERA5 reanalysis data. Type 1 events are characterized by a confluent 500-hPa trough from the west, meridional cold front, strong cross-frontal wind veer (about 90°), cross-frontal temperature decrease of 2°–4°C, prefrontal 2-m dewpoint temperatures of 12°–14°C, a prefrontal low-level jet, and prefrontal 0–1- and 0–3-km bulk shears of 15 and 25 m s−1, respectively. In contrast, type 2 events are characterized by a diffluent 500-hPa trough from the northwest, zonal front, weaker cross-frontal wind veer (≤45°), much smaller cross-frontal temperature decrease, lower prefrontal 2-m dewpoint temperatures of 6°–10°C, and weaker prefrontal 0–1- and 0–3-km bulk shears of 10 and 15 m s−1, respectively. Analysis of the Met Office radar reflectivity mosaics revealed that narrow cold-frontal rainbands developed in all type 1 events and subsequently displayed precipitation core-and-gap structures. Conversely, type 2 events did not develop narrow cold-frontal rainbands, although precipitation cores developed sporadically within the wide cold-frontal rainband. Type 1 events produced tornadoes 2–4 h after core-and-gap development, whereas type 2 events produced tornadoes within 1 h of forming cores and gaps. All events produced tornadoes during a relatively short time period (1–3 h).

The belief that weather influences people’s health has been prevalent for millennia. Recent studies on the relationship between weather and pain for those who suffer from chronic pain remain indeterminate, with some studies finding strong effects and others finding no effects; most studies face limitations to their study design or dataset size. To address these limitations, a U.K.-wide smartphone study Cloudy with a Chance of Pain was conducted over 15 months with 10,584 citizen scientists who suffer from chronic pain, producing the largest dataset both in duration and number of participants. Compared to other similar citizen-science studies, our retention of participants was substantially better, with 15% still entering data nearly every day after 200 days. Analysis of the dataset using synoptic climatology and compositing revealed the daily weather associated with a prevalence of high pain and low pain across the population. Specifically, our results indicate that the top 10% of days with a high percentage of participants (about 20%) experiencing a pain event (represented here by a +1 change or greater in their pain level on a 5-point scale; referred to as a high-pain day) were associated with below-normal pressure, above-normal humidity, higher precipitation rate, and stronger wind. In contrast, the bottom 10% of days with a small percentage of participants (about 10%) experiencing a pain event (a low-pain day) were associated with above-normal pressure, below-normal humidity, lower precipitation rate, and weaker wind. Thus, these synoptic weather patterns support the beliefs of many participants who said that low pressure—and its accompanying weather—was associated with a pain event.

Proudman resonance is a primary amplification mechanism for meteotsunamis, which are shallow-water waves generated by atmospheric forcings. The effect of tides, sloping bathymetry and the speed, amplitude and aspect ratio of the atmospheric forcing on Proudman resonant wave growth are investigated using analytical approximations and numerical models. With tides included, maximum wave growth through Proudman resonance occurred when the atmospheric-forcing speed matched the tidal-wave speed. Growth greater than Proudman resonance occurred with a positive tidal elevation together with a tidal current in the opposite direction to wave propagation, due to linear growth combined with further amplification from wave-flux conservation. Near-Proudman resonant growth occurred when the forced-wave speed or free-wave speed varied by either a small amount, or varied rapidly, around a speed appropriate for Proudman resonance. For a forcing moving at Proudman resonant speed, resultant wave growth was proportional to the total, time-integrated forcing amplitude. Finally, Proudman resonant wave growth was lower for forcings with lower aspect ratios (AP), partly because forced-wave heights are proportional to 1 + A P 2 , but also because free waves could spread in two dimensions. Whilst the assumptions of strict Proudman resonance are never met, near-Proudman resonant growth may occur over hundreds of kilometres if the effective Froude number is near 1 and the resultant wave propagates predominantly in one dimension.

A critical review of Tosepu et al. (2020a) "Correlation between weather and Covid-19 pandemic in Jakarta, Indonesia" identifies five questions about the data, analysis, and interpretation of their results. These questions are the number of days and dates of data that go into the analysis, interpretation of the "rapid increase" in COVID-19, 0 °C values of temperature suspected to be missing data, no time lag between the weather on the day of infection and the date the case was recorded in the database, and the significance of their results. The scientific community would benefit from reading answers to the five questions from Tosepu et al.

Computergestützte Vorhersage- und Nowcasting-Methoden berücksichtigen heutzutage eine Vielzahl von physikalischen Prozessen, die bei der Integration der dynamischen Gleichung aktiv mitwirken. Vor hundert Jahren erarbeitete der Schwede Tor Bergeron (1891-1977) in Bergen und zeitweise in Leipzig eine Monographie "Über die dreidimensional verknüpfende Wetteranalyse", welche eine ganze Reihe derartiger Prozesse zu quantifizieren suchte und ihre Rolle bei der Entstehung und Fortbewegung von Luftmassen und besonders von Zyklonen darlegte. Die Arbeit erschien schließlich 1928 als umfangreiche Dissertationsschrift im Band 5 der noch jungen Zeitschrift Geofysiske Publikasjoner. Zu den ausführlich dargelegten atmosphärenphysikalischen Meilensteinen gehören etwa: eine Diskussion von atmosphärenphysikalischen Erhaltungsgrößen; die Berücksichtigung von Aerosolen; die Dokumentation der Blockierung einer Frontalzone an den Alpen mit nachfolgender Leezyklogenese; die Entstehung von Luftmassentypen (kalte und warme) aufgrund von diabatischen Prozessen; die Verbindung von Sichtweite, Aerosolgehalt und Luftmassentyp; die Darstellung einer Prozesskette zur Niederschlagsbildung (heute: Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen-Prozess); die Präsentation eines kompletten Jahres (1922) von Aufstiegsdaten der potentiellen Temperatur als Beleg wechselnder Luftmassen. Die Präsentation folgt einer aktuellen Veröffentlichung (Schultz et al., 2020), welche die erstmalige Übersetzung von Bergerons Dissertation ins Englische begleitet. Wesentliche Abbildungen werden eingehend erläutert und mit neueren Daten verglichen. Lokale Bezüge zum Geophysikalischen Institut der Universität Leipzig unter Professor Weickmann werden besonders berücksichtigt. Literaturhinweise: Bergeron, T., 1928: Über die dreidimensional verknüpfende Wetteranalyse. Erster Teil. Prinzipielle Einführung in das Problem der Luftmassen- und Frontenbildung. Geofys. Publ., 5 (6), 1–118; online: www.ngfweb.no/docs/NGF_GP_Vol05_no6.pdf . Schultz, D.M., H. Volkert, B. Antonescu, and H.C. Davies, 2020: Defender and Expositor of the Bergen Methods of Synoptic Analysis - Significance, History, and Translation of Bergeron’s (1928) “Three-Dimensionally Combining Synoptic Analysis”. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 101, E2078-E2094; online: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0021.1 .

The tornado outbreak of 24–25 June 1967 was the most damaging in thehistory of western Europe, producing 7F2–F5 tornadoes,232 injuries, and 15fatalities across France, Belgium and the Netherlands. Following tornadoes inFrance on 24 June, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)issued a tornado forecast for 25 June, which became the first ever—and firstverified—tornado forecast in Europe. Fifty-two years later, tornadoes are stillnot usually forecast by most European national meteorological services, and apan-European counterpart to the NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center (SPC)does not exist to provide convective outlook guidance; yet, tornadoes remainan extant threat. This article asks, “What would a modern-day forecast of the24–25 June 1967 outbreak look like?” To answer this question, a model simulation of the event is used in three ways: 20-km grid-spacing output to produceaSPC-style convective outlook provided by the European Storm Forecast Experiment (ESTOFEX), 800-m grid-spacing output to analyze simulated reflectivity and surface winds in a nowcasting analog, and 800-m grid-spacingoutput to produce storm-total footprints of updraft-helicity maxima to compare to observed tornado tracks. The model simulates a large supercell on24 June and weaker embedded mesocyclones on 25 June forming along astationary front, allowing the ESTOFEX outlooks to correctly identify thethreat. Updraft-helicity footprints indicate multiple mesocyclones on bothdays within 40–50 km and 3–4 h of observed tornado tracks, demonstratingthe ability to hindcast a large European tornado outbreak.

A cold-frontal passage through northern Utah was studied using observations collected during intensive observing period 4 of the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment (IPEX) on 14–15 February 2000. To illustrate some of its nonclassic characteristics, its origins are considered. The front developed following the landfall of two surface features on the Pacific coast (hereafter, the cold-frontal system). The first feature was a surface pressure trough and wind shift associated with a band of precipitation and rope cloud with little, if any, surface baroclinicity. The second, which made landfall 4 h later, was a wind shift associated with weaker precipitation that possessed a weak temperature drop at landfall (1°C in 9 h), but developed a stronger temperature drop as it moved inland over central California (4°–6°C in 9 h). As the first feature moved into the Great Basin, surface temperatures ahead of the trough increased due to downslope flow and daytime heating, whereas temperatures behind the trough decreased as precipitation cooled the near-surface air. Coupled with confluence in the lee of the Sierra Nevada, this trough developed into the principal baroclinic zone of the cold-frontal system (8°C in less than an hour), whereas the temperature drop with the second feature weakened further. The motion of the surface pressure trough was faster than the posttrough surface winds and was tied to the motion of the short-wave trough aloft. This case, along with previously published cases in the Intermountain West, challenges the traditional conceptual model of cold-frontal terminology, structure, and evolution.

Tornadoes and waterspouts have long fascinated humankind through their presence in myths and popular beliefs and originally were believed to have supernatural causes. The first theories explaining weather phenomena as having natural causes were proposed by ancient Greek natural philosophers. Aristotle was one of the first natural philosophers to speculate about the formation of tornadoes and waterspouts in Meteorologica (circa 340 BCE). Aristotle believed that tornadoes and waterspouts were associated with the wind trapped inside the cloud and moving in a circular motion. When the wind escapes the cloud, its descending motion carries the cloud with it, leading to the formation of a typhon (i.e., tornado or waterspout). His theories were adopted and further nuanced by other Greek philosophers such as Theophrastus and Epicurus. Aristotle’s ideas also influenced Roman philosophers such as Lucretius, Seneca, and Pliny the Elder, who further developed his ideas and also added their own speculations (e.g., tornadoes do not need a parent cloud). Almost ignored, Meteorologica was translated into Latin in the twelfth century, initially from an Arabic version, leading to much greater influence over the next centuries and into the Renaissance. In the seventeenth century, the first book-length studies on tornadoes and waterspouts were published in Italy and France, marking the beginning of theoretical and observational studies on these phenomena in Europe. Even if speculations about tornadoes and waterspouts proposed by Greek and Roman authors were cited after the nineteenth century only as historical pieces, core ideas of modern theories explaining these vortices can be traced back to this early literature.

During 2–3 December 2012, the Black Sea and east coast of Romania were affected by a rapidly deepening Mediterranean cyclone. The cyclone developed a bent-back front along which short-lived (2–4 h) strong winds up to 38 m s−1 were recorded equatorward of the cyclone center. A mesoscale model simulation was used to analyze the evolution of the wind field, to investigate the physical processes that were responsible for the strong winds and their acceleration, and to investigate the relative importance of the stability of the boundary layer to those strong winds. The origin of the air in the wind maximum equatorward of the cyclone center was twofold. The first was associated with a sting jet, a descending airstream from the midlevels of the cloud head and the lower part of the cyclonic branch of the warm conveyor belt. The sting jet started to descend west of the cyclone center, ending at the frontolytic tip of the bent-back front. The second was a low-level airstream associated with the cold conveyor belt that originated northeast of the cyclone center and traveled below 900 hPa along the cold side of the bent-back front, ending behind the cold front. Both airstreams were accelerated by the along-flow pressure gradient force, with the largest accelerations acting on the sting-jet air before entering into the near-surface strong-wind area. The sensible heat fluxes destabilized the boundary layer to near-neutral conditions south of the cyclone center, facilitating downward mixing and allowing the descending air to reach the surface. Mesoscale instabilities appeared to be unimportant in the sting-jet formation.

Stellate ganglion nerve blockade (SGNB) is a vital tool in our armamentarium for the treatment of various chronic pain syndromes. SGNB can be performed using the traditional landmark-based approach, or with image guidance using either fluoroscopy or ultrasound. In this review, we systematically analyzed reported SGNB-related complications between 1990 and 2018. Seven databases were queried for SGNB between January 1, 1990 and November 27, 2018. Search results of the complications associated with SGNB were reported as per the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses recommendations. Out of a total of 1909 articles, 67 articles met our inclusion criteria, yielding 260 cases with adverse events. In 134 of the 260 (51.5%) cases, SGNB was performed with image guidance. Sixty-four (24.6%) and 70 (26.9%) of the complication cases reported the use of ultrasound and fluoroscopy guidance, respectively. One hundred and seventy-eight (68.4%) patients had medication-related or systemic side effects, and 82 (31.5%) had procedure-related or local side effects. There was one report of death due to massive hematoma leading to airway obstruction. There was one case report of quadriplegia secondary to pyogenic cervical epidural abscess and discitis following an SGNB. Complications following SGNB have been reported with both landmark-based techniques and with imaging guidance using fluoroscopy or ultrasound. In our systematic review, most adverse events that were reported occurred during or shortly after SGNB. Vigilance, American Society of Anesthesiologists standard monitors for conscious sedation, and accessibility to resuscitation equipment are vital to the safe performance of SGNB.